Alibaba looks like it might be worth the risk Alibaba is in a risky position politically, but strong position fundamentally. I personally like the opportunity here.
BABAF trade ideas
BABA, Breakout Of Triangle, Next Steps Ahead!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this analysis where we are looking at BABA 4-hour timeframe perspective which is has shown some interesting confirmational and volatile signs recently, therefore, we are looking at recent events, the current price-structure, what we can expect next times, how possible entries can look like and how to handle upcoming situations properly.
Looking at my chart you can watch there that the stock just formed this massive and decisive ascending-triangle-formation which upper boundary and lower boundary are marked in blue, as this triangle has confirmed now properly with a volatile bullish move to the upside this gave a good and healthy edge for further upside ahead. Currently, the stock is approaching some resistance in the level where a pull-back to the upper boundary of the formation is possible as it is seen in my chart, furthermore, the stock has some solid support in this range which is given by the 50-EMA marked in red and below still the 100-EMA in black, these factors making it highly possible support to be confirmed when touched in this area, it is also a good point to open long in this range as it is marked in my chart, with the breakout the stock activated the minimum target which you can watch marked at the 299-300 level, when the stock approaches this it has to be elevated how it will continue further in the range, overall there is definitely some more upside possible.
Although it is possible to increase further in growth above the minimum target it has to be elevated how the stock approaches this range and if there are urgent bearish signs in this range, how they look like or the stock just manages to move above this level and go further.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best!
"Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BABA is a perfect buyStock is cheap. At $88 it's waaay below its value.
Asset Value minus debt divided by a number of shares put BABA somewhere in the $95-110 range. Which means that at $88 it's basically free money.
The only con is VIE structure (Google it yourself) - I have decided to put my trust in VIE structure.
EV/EBITDA is 1.98 which is amazingly low for this type of company. For comparison, Amazon EV/EBITDA is 20.5 at the moment.
I have concluded that risk of VIE structure cancles out the EV/EBITDA discrepancy more than enough.
There is a very high chance that BABA is cheap enough to cancel out every other investment risk.
Do your own research and get to your own conclusions. These are just bullet points and for a small investor this should be a great LONG TERM investment.
Don't expect quick profits, even though there is a high chance of mid to short-term profits with this stock.
$BABA - CoilingBABA is currently on support (blue TL) and is coiling in a triangle. One can look to go long as long as support holds with the idea of holding on for a breakout to the upside. First target would be around 103 (resistance) where the price could possibly pullback to retest breakout - then move higher to 122. Stop loss on a break below blue TL or around 85.
BABA, Moving In Major Channel, Potential To Sustain Further!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current situation within BABA a stock which I detected in my observation and at the moment providing interesting and worthful signals which can prove profitable to keep in the schedule. As one of the major online retail traders beside amazon, it is a big profiteer of the current corona-crisis as the digital economy experiences an overall boom-phase and more and more people buying things online because of the corona-restrictions and beside it is more convenient as to go in a physical shop. These factors can show positive but this is the fundamental side, on the technical side we have also some meaningful indications right now, therefore we are looking at the locally 4-hour timeframe.
As you can see in my chart BABA is moving in a major rising uptrend channel where the price confirmed the 300-EMA which you can see marked in blue in my chart, overall we have some good support at the moment in that level which can provide a basis for further increase minimum on the short scale basis. What is adding to this scenario is that BABA has some gaps higher within the structure which looking for a gap-fill with liquidity providing volume at this price-range. Adding the exceptional support-cluster and the gap-fill-potential we currently have together we have a decent high probability to follow through with some upward-moving price-action similar as you can see it marked in my chart.
After the gap got filled we need to see and examine how the volatility was within the gap-fill, when we saw some good volatility also BABA has the potential to increase further when it confirms the proper support in the structure when this happens and we can stabilize here BABA will firstly test the short-term-resistance which you can see marked in my chart at the 220 level, this will be a major test because it is still important resistance but when BABA succeeds and maybe manages to hold this level there will be the test of the next higher resistance at 230 remainings. Remember that we need to see the proper confirmation before we can look for these levels as targets, firstly it is highly possible that we will fill the gap before we can consider the other targets as reasonable.
In the bigger picture, BABA is moving in an overall upward consolidation range here which can be bullish when we hold the range and gain support further. The fact that BABA is a major online retail trader gives a more bullish edge on the fundamental side of things which can be an indication for price increase, although BABA is not that big like amazon it is profiting from the crisis which needs to keep in mind. This theory is playing together with the technical side therefore it will be interesting how BABA develops further. On the reverse side it is important to hold the support otherwise when we fall below the rising channel it can provide bearish pressure which will drag the stock down, in this case, a good exit scenario as most often is the best decision.
Thanks for watching everybody, support for more market insight and all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Is BABA ready for Upside?BABA is hovering right around the Support area.
On weekly the stock looks weak and suggests further downside.
On daily looks attractive with stop loss below $87.with targets $94,$98,$102.
On the downside it looks like it might find support at $82.
PLEASE NOTE THIS IS RISKY and can go in either direction
BABA looks very bullish at this pointIf you follow me... For example, when it came to APPL, I clearly stated to day trade it, when the temporary up move was in play. The reason - it was unknown to what point apple was going to pullback (UP) until it reversed for a severe drop. However, yesterday I said BABA was bullish, I still maintain only considering big drop on Sep 6/7, it is now VERY BULLISH in my humble opinion. There was no mention of quick play, BABA is bullish and the target price is +$121 and then some. This is not overnight play! I will update, as things develop. For now, my reading of the chart is UP UP UP. We shall see.
BABA Inverse H&S setup Target 260 after completionNot financial advice
Trade idea moving forward.
Wait for rejection of 125 level and see if we come back to around 80-90 range.
80-90 be my order areas with a long term target of completion of this structure at 260 level
Seems to be we have an inverse Head and shoulders setup going on here with a pullback to the 80-90 range that should in theory push us up to around the 235-260 mark upon completion.
Oversold on shorter time-frames but undersold on the 3 month charts
So a pullback here to be expected but the rejection of 4k of spx is telling as well.
BABA target $103 for now....BABA is bullish in my opinion, and has about 10% to deliver in the near future...
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You may find it strange that I do not use indicators, and don't confuse you guys with million lines and theories... I use plain charts to do my analysis and so far have been pretty good with it.
If you want to understand the most important concept in trading - market context (1 ever repeating pattern, on all time frames), I teach... ronposit gm com
Collect Cash Waiting To Buy China's Biggest RetailerHey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in Alibaba, the infamous Chinese Tech company / Retailer.
Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on BABA shares.
In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens.
Either;
A.) The stock price finishes above the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you make money.
B.) The stock price finishes below the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you’re forced to buy the stock at the strike price.
With the trades we publish, if the stock goes up, sideways, or down a bit, you'll make money. If the stock goes down a lot, then you'll be forced to buy shares.
In other words - either make money, or buy the dip!
The trick is finding the right stock at the right time.
Right now, BABA seems like a great candidate for this strategy.
First, the company's recent share price decline seems to have flattened out considerably, which means that the market has priced the majority of the risk associated with Chinese exposure at the moment:
Secondly, the company's valuation has come in significantly, and management is buying back diluted share count, which could lead to higher EPS and an increasing stock price in the future.
Finally, the $85 level in the stock is a local support level which was recently put in earlier this year, which should add confluence to the trade idea, if shares end up getting assigned:
Net net, this idea has an 81% chance of earning max profit by expiry, which, combined with the positive price action, solid fundamentals, and recent support level, make us feel comfortable taking risk here.
What do you think?
Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
BABA: sell ideaOn BABA as you see on the chart we will have a continuation of the uptrend if only if we have the breakout with force the resistance line and the vwap indicator by a big green candle with a large green volume. But, in other hand we will have a reversal trend (downtrend) if we have the breakout with force the support line by a big red candle with a large red volume. Thanks!
BABA: 1.6 Million Share Block Trades and Two Gaps to MindFollowing NYSE:BABA ? With price coiling inside of a wedge on the daily, we zoom in to determine where things go in September.
Personally, I'm a little meh on NYSE:BABA breaking higher due to Chinese macro. But if we get back above this massive block trade seller from early August who laid 1.65 million shares down on the 7th, then that juicy upside gap is next...
...but if we can't clear those blocks, then we get a quick fill of that recent downside gap.
$BABA - A follow up to my previous postNYSE:BABA In my earlier post, I stated that we needed to clear $95 in order to head to $105. Well, we cleared $95 by 1 cent on Friday! Woo hoo!
Though I don't like the look of that candle, we could still 💥🚀.
Closing above $120 will complete the inverse head and shoulders pattern and could see further upside to $170.
Upside targets:
$105
$120
$170 (1 to 2 years out)
Key support area (Risk):
$87
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$BABA Elliot Wave AnalysisExpand the chart below for more detailed analysis & levels for NYSE:BABA
NFA/my opinion only... according to my work the stock is undergoing a large rounding bottom and has nearly completed a years long accumulation phase
The stock has already completed Waves 1 & 2, and is currently undergoing a minor accumulation phase before Wave 3 begins and ultimately trades $120... $120 is my year end target
Longer term, Wave 3 should continue into the first half of 2024. I expect NYSE:BABA to be a big winner through 2024
Why Alibaba the #1 investment idea in the global market.I will share an idea with Alibaba, which I consider to be the Top 1 in the global stock market.
In two years (from October 2020 to October 2022), Alibaba shares suffered a catastrophic drop: from $317 to $63. Last year, we shared skepticism about China. Why now there are reasons to think that a new long-term growing trend is emerging in the largest online retailer?
First, the reasons for the fall in stocks:
The initial phase of the decline was associated with the deflation of the bubble in Internet companies after the prospects for getting out of coronavirus restrictions became clear;
A campaign has been launched in China to strengthen state control over private Internet companies;
Alibaba suffered from state "guardianship" more than others because of the personality of founder Jack Ma, who allowed himself to criticize the policy of regulators;
Another headwind for all Chinese companies was the strengthening of geopolitical risks, which resulted in a real panic about a possible invasion of Taiwan in mid-2022. Foreign investors massively went to the exit;
Once again, Alibaba was the main victim, as its largest shareholder, the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, was itself under attack due to accumulated debts and a bunch of unsuccessful investments in startups, which forced it to sell off its main liquid assets.
Such a rare combination of negative factors provided the perfect storm for Alibaba shares. Let's see, what grounds are there to hope that he is behind?
✔️ Alibaba has continued to grow all this time. After a 1.5-fold jump in revenue in the pandemic year 2020 to $106 billion, in 2021 it amounted to $133 billion, in 2022 due to the devaluation of the yuan in dollars. it fell to $127 billion. This year, the consensus forecast assumes revenue growth of 5%, net profit - by 25% to record levels for both indicators.
Alibaba's current P/E ratio is 11.6. The company reflects cash in the amount of $112 billion on the balance sheet, so the total cost (EV) is lower than capitalization, and EV/EBITDA = 6.7.
Amazon has P/E = 48, EV/EBITDA = 16.
The process of strengthening state control was completed without significant losses for the largest Chinese conglomerates. Now the authorities have the main task - economic growth. The problems due to the founder are also in the past. Jack Ma did not appear in public for a long time, there was talk that he had left the country. But in March, he appeared at a meeting with students in Hangzhou, and his foundation said that Jack Ma travels a lot in China. It seems that the authorities have concluded an unspoken truce with the businessman and make it possible to reduce the monopolistic influence in the Chinese economy by allocating daughters to separate public companies.
It is difficult to make your own expert opinion about geopolitical risks. As we wrote, in this matter, it is best to focus on the collective opinion of Asian (not Chinese!) investors. Fresh Goldman Sachs research shows that recently they have been investing more and more in China and do not share the pessimism of the Western media.
Softbank recently announced the completion of the exit from Alibaba. Last year, he sold almost $30 billion worth of Alibaba shares, this year the balance is $7.5 billion.
Alibaba increases payments to shareholders through buyback of shares. Over the past year, it has bought out of the market and repaid 4.5% of its shares (worth about $ 10 billion). It is planned to spend another $40 billion on buyback by March 2025.
This rarely happens - almost every factor-minus has an argument-plus, and Alibaba shares have not yet gone far from their lows!
