BABA: Sell ideaSell idea on BABA as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator by a big red candle with a large red volume.Thanks!
AAAlibaba Group Holding Limited
14.43USDD
−0.70−4.65%
Last update at Jun 11, 17:45 GMT
USD
No tradesPre-market
BABAF trade ideas
BABA BABA weekly and hourly charts
Ugly wick so far on the weekly rejecting the 21EMA, Nice looking flag forming on the hourly chart. I like this short set up here. Looking to take this green to red tomorrow. Would love a retest of the 21ema on the hourly or that 87 area to get a short entry. Aiming for day 2 continuation down. Targets are 83.5 and 81.
The most likely scenario on BABAbased on the price pattern has been formed in the last 3 years, the most likely scenario is what is shown by the blue line marked on the chart.
due to the last move of the price and disability to catch the Last High which is marked by the orange line, market structure hasn't changed and downtrend is still continuous.
so i'm expecting a new low and all of the mentiond fact beside the weakend downtrend show me a scenario which is marked on the chart by blue line.
BABA - Double your money in a year ?BABA is way down near it's All-Time low of $57. Weekly Stochastic RSI is in oversold. Seems to have clear horizontal targets to test on the way back up at $85 and $120. Will the 57 mark hold as support or will it ping lower to around $45. It's going to bounce somewhere and when it does it's bound to be a biggie...
Alibaba Keeps Making Lower HighsAlibaba rallied sharply between November and early this year, but now it may be showing signs of continuation to the downside.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since January 26. The Chinese e-commerce stock bounced around $81 in March and April. The result could be a potentially bearish descending triangle. (That $81 level could be especially important because it’s a support level running back more than a year.)
Next, consider how the 50-day simple moving (SMA) tried to get above the 200-day SMA but couldn’t stay there. Some technical analysts may think that “death cross” confirms a longer-term downtrend.
Finally, you have the large red high-volume candle on May 18. It immediately followed better-then-expected earnings and revenue -- a potential sign of investors losing interest over the longer run.
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Alibaba to breakdown?Alibaba - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 79.38 (stop at 84.38)
The primary trend remains bullish.
The stock is currently underperforming in its sector.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Daily signals are bearish.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
79.48 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent low at 79.48 should result in a further move lower.
Our profit targets will be 67.38 and 65.38
Resistance: 85.00 / 88.50 / 91.43
Support: 82.70 / 79.48 / 75.00
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Alibaba's Earnings Report and Future Prospects:Detailed AnalysisFollowing the release of Alibaba's latest earnings report on May 18th, the company's stock encountered a 5% decline. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which concluded on March 31st, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader achieved a 2% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching 208.2 billion yuan ($30.3 billion). This figure surpassed analysts' expectations by $410 million. Furthermore, Alibaba's adjusted net income experienced a significant rise of 38%, amounting to 27.4 billion yuan ($4.0 billion), or $1.56 per American depositary share (ADS). Additionally, the company surpassed the consensus forecast by $0.21 in terms of adjusted earnings.
For the full fiscal year, Alibaba achieved a 2% growth in revenue and a 4% increase in adjusted earnings per ADS. Despite these positive results, Alibaba's stock price has plummeted more than 70% from its all-time high in October 2020. This situation prompts investors to consider whether Alibaba's stock presents a value play opportunity in the context of China's COVID-19 recovery or if it will remain out of favor in the Chinese tech sector for the foreseeable future.
Alibaba's decline can be attributed to a combination of regulatory, competitive, and macroeconomic factors. In September 2021, the company faced significant regulatory actions when China's antitrust regulators imposed a record-breaking $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba. This penalty required the company to terminate exclusive agreements with merchants and aggressive promotional practices while undergoing scrutiny of past and future investments. These regulatory measures weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals such as JD.com and Pinduoduo in the Chinese e-commerce market.
Furthermore, macroeconomic challenges impacted Alibaba's performance. China's economic slowdown and intermittent COVID-related lockdowns had a broad impact on consumer spending, consequently affecting Alibaba's performance. Companies also reduced their spending on Alibaba's cloud services due to the challenging economic conditions. Additionally, Alibaba's cloud business suffered a setback when ByteDance, under international pressure, transitioned the data of TikTok's overseas users from Alibaba Cloud to Oracle's cloud servers in 2021.
In terms of revenue distribution, Alibaba generated 67% of its revenue from its China Commerce segment, which encompasses platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and brick-and-mortar stores. Another 9% of revenue came from Alibaba Cloud, which remains the leading cloud platform in China. It is worth examining the performance of these two core businesses over the past two years.
Although the economic slowdown significantly impacted investor sentiment towards Alibaba, there are positive developments worth noting. Alibaba's operating margin expanded from 8% in fiscal 2022 to 12% in fiscal 2023, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin increased from 19% to 20%. These improvements can be attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a significant reduction in the workforce with approximately 19,000 layoffs throughout 2022.
In March, Alibaba unveiled its future plans, which involve dividing its business into six new groups: Cloud Intelligence, Taobao Tmall Commerce, Local Services, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Global Digital Commerce, and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Each group will be led by separate CEOs, and many of them will pursue additional funding or initial public offerings (IPOs).
As an update to these plans, Alibaba announced in its fourth-quarter report that it intends to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) for its entire cloud division. The company plans to distribute the shares from this IPO as a special dividend to its current shareholders. Additionally, Alibaba aims to seek external financing for its global e-commerce division, which includes its overseas and cross-border marketplaces. Furthermore, the company is exploring potential IPOs for Cainiao Smart Logistics and the grocery division of its Taobao Tmall Commerce Group.
It's important to note that Alibaba's restructuring plan does not involve a complete split of the company. Even if the various business groups are spun off into publicly traded companies, Alibaba will retain majority stakes in all of them. The purpose of the restructuring is to enable these groups to pursue external financing independently, thereby reducing the burden on Alibaba's balance sheet. Additionally, it allows each group to make autonomous decisions without concerns about potential impacts on Alibaba's other divisions.
While Alibaba did not provide specific guidance for fiscal 2024, there is potential for its growth to accelerate as China's economy undergoes a post-COVID recovery. The spinoff of Alibaba Cloud has the potential to generate fresh capital and enhance the company's profitability.
Analysts anticipate that Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will grow by approximately 10% and 9% respectively in fiscal 2024. However, these estimates should be approached with caution due to existing uncertainties. From a valuation standpoint, Alibaba's stock appears inexpensive, trading at around two times this year's sales and 10 times its adjusted EBITDA. Nevertheless, the stock may continue to face challenges until its revenue growth gains momentum and concerns regarding delisting threats for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are addressed.
While Alibaba is certainly worth monitoring, it may not be considered an outright bargain at the current moment. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor the company's growth trajectory and the regulatory environment before making investment decisions.
BABA H&S playing out good so far. BABA H&S playing out well so far.
I will probably be entering more here.
Another catalyst just arrived with Micheal Burry holding over 10% of his portfolio in BABA stocks to hedge the economic situation.
Definitely a good long-term hold here.
Especially if you add onto it the restructuring BABA is going through which experts have predicted will increase stock price from anywhere between 13 - 36% just off that.
I like it.
Thoughts?
Potential 60% move Bull Flag Set Up if resistance become supportBaba traded down 5% Thursday
and currently down early premarket for Fridays Trading session
Looking at the Monthly Chart. There are a few things that stand out to me
1) double bottom
2) Potential Bull Flag
3) Baba actually closed below the 1st resistances level I pointed out, but not the second. It would have to close below $81 to invalidate the 2nd resistances level as support. I believe the 2nd resistances level is a key retest and needs to be flipped to support.
4) If Baba can close above both resistances, then we have a valid Bull Flag set up and Im looking at $130 Baba stock price. Thats over 60% from current stock price.
*No Position, looking for confirmation*
I'm Neutral til confirmation
i.Wish BABA < $80; Mar Q reports a miss in its toplineAlibaba will remain to be the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms in China. Its leadership position enables it to benefit from industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry leading B2B and cloud services, and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce,
new retail, O2O and an affiliate, Ant Technology.
Bank of America reduced BABA price target from $144 to $132.
I am using the daily Elder Impulse along with my drawing scheme to build up my BABA position for its June report.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA here:
and bought it here:
Now Analyzing the options chain of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $4.45
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
