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Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.II

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.

9.48USDD
+0.02+0.21%
At close at Aug 15, 19:59 GMT
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IMPUY trade ideas

Implats down channel fooled us all but not again!To think that in January 2023, IMplats was trading at R235.52. Today, in November we're looking at R73.12. And yet, it's been an imperceptible downward journey, that even I am too embarassed to realise today. Hindsight is a Biscuit! Well anyway, the new downward channel is showing more downside to come with volatile (jumpy) highs and lows which can easily stop out any trader along the way. But all in all, the target seems to be going to R44.00 I'm bearish...
JShort
by Timonrosso
1
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past 7 years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets". This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past 10 years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a reduction in auto catalyst demand recently, especially for diesel trucks. Palladium and Rhodium still have strong markets, but platinum has been oversupplied on world markets. The company plans to grow its production from Zimbabwe by 14% due to the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. Its newly acquired Canadian operation should also increase production. On 20th July 2023 the company announced that it had acquired 56,52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam also announced its decision to sell its 34,5% of its holding to Implats. On the 28th of June 2022, the company announced that it had reached a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) for an average wage increase of 6,6% per annum. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported group 6E production up 2%, but refined production down 4% and sales down 6%. Rand revenue per 6E ounce declined by 4%. The company said, "In addition to load curtailment at South African managed and JV operations during the period, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023. In total, Implats estimates 36 000 6E ounces of production were foregone across southern African managed and JV operations during the period". In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported 6E production up 21%. The company said, "Volume gains offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimised in the period". Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022 mainly as a result of lower PGM prices, increased costs and loadshedding. It remains a volatile commodity share.
J
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past 7 years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets". This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past 10 years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a reduction in auto catalyst demand recently, especially for diesel trucks. Palladium and Rhodium still have strong markets, but platinum has been oversupplied on world markets. The company plans to grow its production from Zimbabwe by 14% due to the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. Its newly acquired Canadian operation should also increase production. During the corona pandemic the share dropped to as low as R55.50 but is now trading at R176.42. On 20th July 2023 the company announced that it had acquired 56,52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam also announced its decision to sell its 34,5% of its holding to Implats. On the 28th of June 2022, the company announced that it had reached a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) for an average wage increase of 6,6% per annum. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported group 6E production up 2%, but refined production down 4% and sales down 6%. Rand revenue per 6E ounce declined by 4%. The company said, "In addition to load curtailment at South African managed and JV operations during the period, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023. In total, Implats estimates 36 000 6E ounces of production were foregone across southern African managed and JV operations during the period". In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported 6E production up 21%. The company said, "Volume gains offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimised in the period". Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022 mainly as a result of lower PGM prices, increased costs and loadshedding. It remains a volatile commodity share.
J
by PDSnetSA
Impala Platinum - Downside target almost reachedFollowing on from a previous post: Impala did not manage to move higher from its oversold levels and, at one point, staged a promising bounce after temporarily breaching 90 to the downside. Currently, the price has still failed to break its downtrend and as a result, the almost once doubtful level of 70 is now within sight! Levels to look out for on the downside are 70.20 and 51.97. I would like to see the stock break its downtrend (hello) before getting involved with longs at which point we could potentially target 139 if this plays out.
J
by Trad3r_16
Impala Platinum: In a Potential Reversal ZoneIf platinum miners are showing strength then we can expect Impala to join the bandwagon, in that case we look at weekly trend being confirmed through the following: 1. Closing above the blue line means we are in a new weekly cycle meaning higher for longer. 2. Closing above the green line means we are in a new yearly cycle, the dashed purple line becomes a magnet. For now we watch & wait for confirmation, more risk accepting investors can buy on the swing low confirmation while less risk accepting can wait for a close above the blue trendline.
JLong
by runyamhere
IMP: Entering the Sell the Bounce PhaseGiven the price action in the USD dollar index ($DXY), we can expect downward pressure on precious metals, Platinum already has a failed daily cycle, meaning the platinum miners will follow. Impala has found support on the 200DMA which will attract traders. As can be seen, price fell out of a rising wedge (bearish), so the bounce in price has can either: 1. Rise to back test the wedge support it fell from. 2. Move to touch the declining trendline intersecting the wedge support line. A swing high on the bounce gives room to open/add to short position from where price is expected to break through the 200DMA. The lower trendline is a good place to close shorts & seek a long.
JShort
by runyamhere
1
$JSEIMP - Impala Platinum: More Pain In StoreI have taken some time to come up with long-term wave count of Impala Platinum. PGMs on the JSE have taken a beating of late and many industry commentators are saying now is the right time to buy as these stocks are very cheap. Well, I have to caution that Impala might still get even cheaper. Looking at the chart from August 2018, which is the bottom of the great bear market from 2008/9, the advance to 30919 is in a clear five waves and since wave (4) terminated in the price territory of wave (1), this is a leading diagonal and not an impulse. The bear trend from 30919 looks to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern which is contained in the descending channel. Wave (A) was a choppy impulse. Wave (B) unfolded as a zigzag. Wave (C) looks to be unfolding as an impulse and currently in wave 3. Using the Fibonacci expansion guidelines, 7650 and 3818 represents the price range where wave (C) equals and is 1.236*greater than wave (A) and this zone confluences with the lower support line of the channel. Only a break above 15939 will prompt a re-evaluation of the wave count but not invalidating it. Short the rallies.
JShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
1
IMP - Distance vs 200w SMAEXTRACT FROM LARGER COMMENTARY “....We know that the long term supply level has been around R250 to R290. These levels were also relevant in 2007 and in 2011 (no coincidence). At current levels, the share is potentially breaking down from a 2-year topping structure. While these levels may be widely know, it's the lower panel that has piqued my interest. Flipping through my charts this morning here’s what I saw: Note the price distance vs the 200-w SMA has slipped below zero percent? This is a similar development to what we saw in September 2008 where the negative reading coincided with the start of a multi-year bearish trend. Yesterday we saw Northam holding back on their dividend which saw a strong intraday sell-off. Is this a read for the entire sector or is it confined to NPH who, along with IMP, is involved in some corporate action (re: RBP)...”
J
by techpers
1
IMP - Distance vs 200w SMAExtract from a note published earlier today. Over the years, I have done well to call the direction of Impala Platinum (IMP), most of which has been to help our clients and followers of my work identify key levels and understand the prevailing reward-to-risk. While I’ve also had several short term (CFD) trade ideas for our active traders, I will focus on the long term, structural calls. On 18 September 2018 (at 1926c), I presented my perspective of the MONTHLY CHART. After the market close on that day, I publicly tweeted the chart to my followers/connections. See the original tweet below (time-stamped). On 14 May 2021 (nearly 2 years ago) I again tweeted about the share, highlighting the potential for downside risk. Most of us know that IMP hasn't been able to crack the R300 level, with sellers pushing the share close to R140 last year while the last close was around R166. See the original tweet below (time-stamped). Where To Next for Impala Platinum? In the weekly chart below, the following is displayed: Upper Panel: IMP share price Lower Panel: IMP distance vs 200-Week Simple Moving Average in Pct Term Click to enlarge We know that the long term supply level has been around R250 to R290. These levels were also relevant in 2007 and in 2011 (no coincidence). At current levels, the share is potentially breaking down from a 2-year topping structure. While these levels may be widely know, it's the lower panel that has piqued my interest. Flipping through my charts this morning here’s what I saw: Note the price distance vs the 200-w SMA has slipped below zero percent? This is a similar development to what we saw in September 2008 where the negative reading coincided with the start of a multi-year bearish trend. Yesterday we saw Northam holding back on their dividend which saw a strong intraday sell-off. Is this a read for the entire sector or is it confined to NPH who, along with IMP, is involved in some corporate action (re: RBP). Bottom Line: While these businesses are in a much better condition these days and platinum is due to go into a deficit, the smallest of such technical signals mentioned above may be worth paying attention to. As always, technical analysis should not be seen as a predictive tool, but rather a risk management tool.
J
by techpers