TTTencent Holding Ltd.
74.79USDD
−2.29−2.97%
Last update at Aug 14, 20:43 GMT
USD
No tradesPre-market
TCEHY trade ideas
Tencent LONGTencent has been struggling for a while to gain ground and has been in range after a sharp drop and rebound. Currently sitting at support and looks poised to move toward thr upside from here. Risk to reward looks pretty decent and once China starts to recover or stabilise its economy activity this stock is bound to go towards $75 range. The stock looks in healthy condition and is forming a head and shoulder pattern as an initial sign that it is gaining momentum.
Tencent Major Trend ReboundHKEX:700 after years of down trend it is showing some sign of trend bottoming. Mainly supported by company share-buyback in the past few weeks.
While selling pressure from the market is not strong to pull the price lower after each selling. This is indicating that the selling pressure is weak. Which supports the kick start of a bullish trend.
In short term, the price movement continue to show bullish where the selling pressure erased with price marking back higher after sell down in the past 3 trading days. A short term rebound from recent retrace is on the way.
TENCENT Most optimal level to sell long-termTencent Holding LTD (TCTZF) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the January 30 2023 High. Such +1 year consistency is hard to overlook technically, especially since the price got rejected last week not just on the Channel Down top (Lower Highs trend-line), but also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
It has to be said that despite the rejection and the fact that the 1D MA200 has been essentially the Resistance since the August 10 2023 bearish break-out, it did manage a closing above it for the first time in such a long time-frame but the last Thursday - Friday strong rejection, potentially shows that the market hasn't shaken off the long-term bearish sentiment. On top of that, the 1D RSI got rejected exactly on its Resistance, the 70.00 overbought barrier, which is where it got rejected right before the last Lower High on November 14 2023.
As a result we turn bearish again on this stock, targeting $32.00, which represents a -21.12% decline from the top, the lowest decline it had within this +1 year Channel Down on the March 15 2023 Low. In fact all Bearish Legs have been pretty symmetrical, ranging from -21.12% to -24.85%.
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Investment Opportunity TADAWULInteresting move initiated, the price is back on the demand zone which took the liquidity on the left side and initiated a huge break of structure and bullish movement, we can see that the price retraced in a structured way reacted on the zone with an internal break of structure upside which is for me the sign of a bullish trend initiation targeting 416.
Tencent's Rocket Ride: Heading for 1338 HKD?
For Tencent Holdings, we currently believe we are in an overarching Wave III, which should be created with a 5-wave structure upwards. This should naturally extend far beyond the Wave I level at the all-time high of 715 HKD. We anticipate a rise to at least 1338 HKD for this overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at 188.6 HKD. Zooming in, we see that we are about to complete Waves (1) and (3) and soon enter into the Wave (3). Wave (2), as we expect, might dip slightly further, to 241 HKD. However, we are convinced that we could be in a long upward trend. Therefore, we do not want to be stopped out prematurely, as it would be quite unnecessary. A double bottom at 188 HKD cannot be ruled out. Thus, we place our entry at the 50% extension for the very subordinate Wave ((v)) and just above the 78.6% retracement level for the subordinate Wave (2). This would create what's known as a Fibonacci retracement cluster, where there should be a significant buying potential. We will see how it unfolds in the coming weeks or days. Should there be a rise above 297 HKD, we may need to reconsider our stance.
Tencent breakout first time since Jan 2023 -Target 366.40W Formation has formed recently on Tencent Holdings.
And where the price broke above the Neckline is also where the price has broken it's downtrend for the first time since January 2023.
This deems a very positive sign for buying and demand to push the price up.
Nature of the trade analysis is High Probability Too.
Price>20MA and Price>200MA
Target 366.40
Looks great!
TENCENT Peak Formed YesterdayRecent short term rebound shows peak sign yesterday with morning price surge erased in the afternoon. Which indicates selling pressure are coming back after rebound.
We entered into a Callable Bear Contract yesterday at the peak with the analysis of current downtrend reacts more sensitive to sign of selling pressures. Which we see a possible short term price down coming up.
While there are no sign of supporting at the bottom in the past few months of price down. We might see downtrend to continue.
What is Callable Bull/Bear Contract?
Is a structured product like warrants & options. It is similar to Daily Leverage Certificates (DLC) listed in SGX. It provides leverage on underlying securities while limiting the risk to the trade value. At the same time it provides unlimited returns potential at a lower price per units.
However, do take note of the "knock-out" feature when the underlying securities hits the contract strike price. Contract suspend & not able to "revive" after, the losses are limited to the amount you trade on the contract.
About our analysis :
Utilizing the dynamic insights from a 5-minute chart. By closely examining this timeframe, we dissect the intricate volume and price transactions of significant market players. Our aim is to identify short-term support and resistance levels, enabling informed trading decisions. Through this meticulous analysis, we decipher price patterns and trends, providing valuable guidance for traders navigating the fast-paced realm of stock trading.
Is Tencent really worth pennies now ?Despite its dominance as a payment gateway with a monopolistic role in China, global leader in video games and many other businesses, the one thing that it cannot compete against is the strict government policies imposed by the Chinese government.
It has fallen more than 60% from its peak 4 years ago at 700 and thereafter it has been on a downhill ever since. Business wise, it is fundamentally strong and economic moat and is constantly innovating itself in the AI space, cloud computing and strategic alliances.
I shall await patiently at 200 - 246 price level to see if there is a reversal pattern for a rebound. No hurry, cheap can get cheaper now......so be cool and be patient.......if you are in for a long haul else go find other markets
Tencent: Turn around! 🔄Tencent remains in our magenta-colored (long) Target Zone, which extends from HK$302.60 on the upper edge to HK$237.40 on the lower edge. It is still our primary assumption that the stock will establish another marginally lower low within this price range. Once the wave (2) in magenta has been completed, we expect the price to rise above the resistance at HK$416.60. At this point, however, it should be noted once again that the (minimum) requirements for the wave (2) correction, which the stock has been dealing with for almost a year now, were met with the approach of the Zone - as a result, a direct breakout to the upside would be quite conceivable from a technical point of view. Until then, the Target Zone continues to offer the opportunity to position oneself on the long side.
Trend is your friend The obsession of catching the bottom and being proven right is so strong that many would fall for it willingly , taking an unknown risk with no idea if the down trend has reversed.
Looking at the weekly chart, if Oct 2022 is the bottom, then the current downtrend should be rebounding soon and not continue to fall next week/year in 2024. If I am right and it does fall to revisit the Oct low again, creating a double bottom , which I have neither the skills nor foresight but mere conjecture. So , do take this with a pinch of salt and DYODD.
China stocks or ETF for that matter has been hated by many, both institutional and retail investors for some time now, losing trillions of dollars at the seemingly uninterested government of China.
Really, the government is indeed doing something (read here and here
Therefore, I believe the China government is very likely to cut interest rates and print money to stimulate the economy. This would boost corporate lendings and help the private sector to recover, to grow at a faster pace without resorting to cutting prices to beat competition. Trickle down to the retail investors, company expansion would help to improve job opportunities and stabilise the household income, thereby returning the much needed confidence to invest in the stock market again.
Of course, this is my wishful thinking and it may or may not happen so we will have to wait and see. There is no rush to show hand just to catch the bottom but rather wait for the trend reversal to takes place and then participate in it. So what if you missed the bottom which in retrospect are known after the price action is shown in the chart weeks or months later.
Patience remains a skill , one that is scientifically not taught in the investment world but rather a psychological state of mind. It can be trained and improved over times and different measures can be put in place.
Depending on when you review the chart, one might have taken a long position in Dec 2022 when it breaks out from the bearish trend. They should be in break even stage now if prices do not continue to falter but nobody knows for sure.
Like I said so often, market always give us a 2nd or 3rd opportunity. So for those who like this company, we just have to wait patiently for the price action to break out before deciding to go LONG.
FOMO stays regardless we are in 2023 or 2024 or beyond. Where human prevails, the old adage of greed and fear will continue to drive the market. So be careful when you go overboard and pull back a little and let the hard data (charts) tell you if you are following or against the trend.
WIshing everyone a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Tencent Short: Target $246.Firstly, apologies for coughing around the 8th min (too much chocolate).
Basically this analysis builds on top of the HSI and China A50 analysis that I've done previously and that I expect Tencent to move down to $246 and hits the lower channel line as well as 1x of wave (1) distance by 2023 year end.
NETEASE, down due to news or....?Today's news, "China to tighten controls on video gaming industry...."
Traders & investors's overreaction? Or the charts already say so?
I'm purely chartist, base on charts itself, I may sell too.
>> Price keep create LH.
>> Unable to break Parallel Channel
>> Market structure shifted.
Some traders / investors might look for opportunity. Are you one of them?
Personally won't catch red. Just left it drop until the rebounce signal appear.
When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown. The only thing which we can control is our risk. Focus on risk management!
Keep the long term vision.
Disclaimer: Mentioned stocks are solely based on own opinions for education and/or discussion purpose only. There's no buy and/or sell recommendation. Trading involve financial risk on your own. The author shall not be responsible for any losses or lost profits resulting from investment decisions based on the use of the information contained herein.
What will the fate of Tencent be like ?Read the latest article here
As a shareholder , I am not too happy. But as a parent who has two kids pretty glued to the phones , this might be the answer to help them stay away from their phones and do something else. To be fair, I am not born in the internet or mobile phone era where information are readily available online. Naturally, kids will resort to their device as the primary resource to seek answers.
Current price is supported at the 618 Fib Level but I am of the opinion that it will continue to falter for a while more. The next level of support is between 220 -230 where a small gap up happens on 10 Nov 2022. If we are lucky, we might see some support at 246 price level.
The confidence in China stock market is getting dimmer by the days and weeks as I hear more stories of people dumping shares and calling China uninvestable. For now, I am not selling since it is already in the red and this is a government regulations that is beyond what the Company can do.
The recent shares buyback program (read here here ) fails to move the market at all and now with this piece of bad news.
From Feb 2023 at its peak of 415, it has fallen more than 35% and the pessimism in the stock market is not helping at all. What will the fate of Tencent be like ?
$TENCENT shows sign of rebound with bottom formed$TENCENT shows sign of price bottoming on last Thursday with high volume supporting the price from going down lower. (Yellow square box)
Based on our analysis, the rebound signals further sets in with price recover more than 50% of the Friday morning price fall. This indicating demand is coming back in after 2 weeks retrace & selling pressure easing. Which could lead to a price rebound in the coming weeks.
Our trading method: we are looking into Bull CBBC on this potential short term rebound.
#hkex #supplydemandtrading #supportresistancestrategy #cbbc #highriskhighreturn #stocktrading
TENCENT(HK) : Midas Signal Appears with Big Green Bar1. Clear all drawings and indicators.
2. A horizontal resistance level, price reversed at here to form a false break (React Don't Predict).
3. Add BandofMidas from indicators. Use Midas factor of 9. (suitable for this chart)
4. Price fall into Midas zone and reversed. Midas signal came out today morning on 22Sep2023.
5. Midas trend line still in white. Hold position until pink trendline.
6. Plan your trade, risk reward ratio and position size. Cut loss is simply at today candlestick low.
Is Tencent glorious days over ?Read this latest article here
The main culprit can be attributed to the central government crackdown on the tech sector which almost kills the likes of Alibaba, Meituan and other listed tech companies. They have all suffered a fall in share prices of 50-65% from its peak.
In Tencent case, the withdrawal of its largest shareholder sent shivers to many retail investors who had been a great fan and support of Tencent for a long time. Hedge funds and other investment banks are either pulling out or putting their brakes on investing in China.
Nobody can read the mind of the Chinese government and their sudden and abrupt decision to interfere the private sectors to such a large extent had cause much commotion in the business community. Now, we hear the government is making a 180 degrees turn and declare they will be supporting the platform economy after slapping fines on both the two biggest companies , Alibaba and Tencent.
Of course, we can understand how scary it must be if these private companies become a monopoly and with hundreds of millions of users, they can control the mind of these people. It is not something any government wants. So, naturally , the government wants to step in and have a say , to have some form of control before things get too big, too ugly to handle later.
I will be watching closely 382 price level as that was the previous resistance level. Twice it has failed to break above (Jan and Apr 2023). Also, it will be releasing its quarterly earnings soon and that could be a catalyst for the share price to go higher. Let's wait and see, no hurry.....
