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Australia 200 Index

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AUS200 trade ideas

ASX200 keeps rocking the cityXJO aka ASX200 keeps going high but what will be the potential targets before a pull-back? Can we expect a straight V-shape recovery with no looking back? Lets dive into the TA and analyze. It seems ASX200 bounce from the 200Monthly MA last month has triggered a market recovery chain of events. But can we trust that? To me the real recovery would be confirmed if we close a weekly candle above 5800. Bulls can be happy that 0.382 fib milestone is reached, we have the price above LSMA line, the velocity is looking upwards , but from the market structure point of view 5.8k needs to be taken, then 50MA and finally 0.618fib. Keep an eye on this chart as a guide to whether you can invest in individual stocks. I will update you if anything changes. Be safe. XTF
ASX:XJOLong
by xtf_ze_trader
Crash Continuation or Restoration?Over the last week or so we've seen all major indices rallying like crazy despite all the negative news and ongoing issues with covid-19. However, I think that the rally may be coming to a close shortly. As of today It's currently Easter Monday in Australia so the markets are closed. In this chart we can see: - Potential bearish pennant coming to the apex - convergence of price and H1 + H4 EMAs- - Nearing closer to the Fibonacci Golden pocket which held us down recently. What I am looking for in terms of entries: I'm personally keeping an eye on the Golden Pocket for any chance of a rejection. Should we happen to get rejected again then we would be putting in a double top, (Bearish reversal pattern). Important note: BE CAREFUL. No matter how much TA or fundamental analysis you can bring to the table, we are in a completely different market situation where in a moments notice all that research could be thrown out the window. Any traditional fundamental trader can tell you that 16 MILLION jobless claims in the US alone is no reason for the markets to have one of the best weekly runs in history, so take all of this with a grain of salt and remember risk management is key. At the end of the day, you are NOT A TRADER, you are a RISK MANAGER, remember that if you want to remain profitable. Let me know what you guys think and if you enjoyed then please consider liking and following, thanks!
ASX:XJOShort
by kuroSoraFX
4
OZ CENTRAL BANK ENGINEERS STUPIDEST RALLY I HAVE EVER SEEN! !! DEAD CAT BOUNCE NO. 1 ; CREATED WHOLLY AND SOLELY BY OUR RESERVE BANK'S MORONIC QE free helicopter money for the Markets and consequently bolstering asset prices. I saf FK it, let it Rip. Let the Market decide how healthy it is on its OWN without massive interference WITH THE RBA as a MASSIVE MARKET WIDE Buyer. ... TBH the KILLJOYS have taken ALL THE FUN out of it! They have set effectively a floor under ANY downside moves...so Pitting your Bear Wits against those of the Bulls....well, down thew Memory Hole until they stop buying which they claim to be "open ended" ..? WTFKNGF? !!!! Surely the RBA know that unbridled Printing causes far more SERIOUS EXISTENTIAL PROBLEMS in the Real Economy than if poor, inflated, debt funded Asset prices of the upper income bracket percentile were to find the correct unadulterated natural Equilibrium. No we couldn't possibly ALLOW THAT to happen ! FRRRROOT!!! THIS POLICY will bring about the end of the current World Financial Regime altogether...like I've consistently said ; this IS the BIG ONE for Our Age. How very exciting Life, All of a sudden, has become! My Positions have not changed Long Physical Au , long COVID DRIVEN DEMAND SPECCYS SHORT XJO via Puts once this Dead Car is over. I predict Mkt on Wednesday I'll be slamming so more on early in the Session - fairly tight maybe a longer expiry this time...Strikes maybe 5200-4900??? Thoughts opinions, drivel...all welcome. Happy Easter ALL and God Bless. Always DYOR.
ASX:XJOShort
by craigemm
17
ASX 200 truncated fifth? Why the Australian stock market fails In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American indexes. Comparing to American market, all those failures point to some underlying weakness in the Australian stock market and broad economy. Another alarming fact is that the February 2020 all time high is 7180, right below the 3.618 projection of the 1982 to 1987 Wave 1 at 7200. In Elliott's Wave theory, Wave 5 often has some fibonacci proportionate relation with Wave 1. The Australian market is hinting here, February 2020 is the top of a truncated, 'failed' wave 5, as it failed to go significantly higher than the November 2007 top of Wave 3. If we take inflation into account, 7180 in 2020 might be actually lower than 6850 in November 2007. Fundamentally, Australian stocks perform worse than their American counterparts because we have a crazy property bubble here, making many young and old Australians curb consuming and stock investing to save for mortgage deposits. My impression is that most immigrants or new Australians prefer to invest in real estate, not old fashioned shares. Australian immigration intake has been decreasing since 2017, corresponding neatly with the first wave of housing market crash. Unemployment caused by corona virus in 2020 make the rise in property prices since late 2019 look like a dead cat bounce, a Wave B. Unfortunately 2020 might be the start of a lost decade for Australia, featured with decreasing fertility, decreasing immigration, decreasing property and stock market, rising inflation, and collapsing Australian dollar. Indeed we are similar to the Japan of 1990, just awakening from decades of dreamlike growth, easy money and unrealistic confidence. In the short term, ASX 200 is likely to try to approach 6000, getting close to 10 and 200 week moving average as resistance. This short term recovery will probably not change the bleak big picture though. My bottom line is that Australian market will drop more when the American market drops, and rise less when the American market rises, so overall Australian shares are much more bearish.
ASX:XJO
by MarcusAu
2