Raindear and rainbows. Raindear and rainbows is what norwegian politicians is dealing with these days.
Not one Norwegian politician is prepared for what's comming next. Neither where they for the electricity crisis, the inflation crisis or the pandemic or WW3. The most complacent country in the world is where I live. No use trying to warn. No one even wants to zoome out and look at the charts. God bless us all...
NOR25 trade ideas
Norway isn't immune to global market conditionsEvery market has pulled back and already in bear market while Norway continues business as usual. US, Japan, China, Hongkong, Australia, Europe every index has fallen but not the Norway 25 index. While it's impressive, I don't think it can hold anymore. Norway at least should show a 20% pull back from current value. Also, the curve looks like a rounded top so drop wouldn't be too sharp, but I am 98% sure it will happen soon.
Who is ready for a bloody cycle?Once in a lifetime opportunity.
We will witness a great decline, after the landing of the fifth wave. This decline will come in an "abc" type of correction and wipe out all the new and unexperienced investors.
In this last period, every stock within the Norwegian market has been booming. Would you not say it is about time?
Anyways, the fifth wave is very fast and advances aggressively. This is called an extended fifth wave. We can tell on the chart that this is surly an extended wave. The evidence is; A clear break of the trend-line, The move is bigger than the first wave, the last evidence is the Norwegian news which has only been bullish on the stock-market.
The world wide economic disaster is right around the corner. Be prepared and not foolish...
I wish you guys good luck.
OBX in a rising wedge formation on lower timeframes.Since the index closely follows the price of Crude oil (which is in a similar pattern), I expect some pullback at these levels.
First target is around 740, then 715. 700 is the line in the sand in terms of keeping the uptrend going.
(Note that the formation is a fractal of a bigger wedge playing out on the weekly timeframe).
OBX has broken the rising channel (!)Although I am a technical trader, the fundamentals helped me keep my conviction and my bearish positions through this market rally.
The most important thing to remember is to gather as much information as possible and base your actions on facts, not emotions.
The OBX indeks has broken down from a rising channel / symmetrical triangle. The measured move for this triangle should take us down to at least the 650 level.
673 is an important level to hold for the bulls. I expect a bounce from here to create a lower high / and perhaps test the break at the 683 level. I would not short this level, but wait for a lower high on the hourly or 4 hr if I wasn't short already.
Any close below 690-700 however, should be considered bearish. I will be keeping my bearish position till we reach said target OR we change the trend on the 4 hr chart.
I do not believe it will happen this week though.
OBX index in an ascending wedge pattern, when will it break? I have been tracking this ascending wedge pattern since early april, it is similar to the one in other major indicies.
I expect one final leg up since there is a bull-flag forming on lower timeframes, and a spike up to the 722-725 level to fill the gap (look left).
Then, if it rejects from this level (which also corresponds to 0.618 on fib), it should be able to create a bearflag / head and shoulders pattern to take us lower.
OBX shortWith falling oil prices and corona-virus spreading like a wildfire, we are likely to see the obx drop even more. It does not look like Saudi or Russia is planning to stop dumping the oilprice either. The Norweigan krone is has had a huge loss because of the oil price, and foreign investors leave the norwegian market when the price of NOK vs EUR/USD is rising. The Euro has now risen more than 13% in the last 29 days
OBX / Equinor Spread Trading StrategyBased on the example explained in the Tradingview Wiki for Spread Charts (www.tradingview.com).
Pairs trading involves trading two separate instruments simultaneously in order to execute a single trade.
Pairs trading is a popular way to alleviate some of the risk of trading. The idea is that you find two highly correlated symbols (or two very lowly correlated symbols) and enter a position in both symbols. If the pair is highly correlated, they should move in the same direction.
Typically, an opportunity presents itself when the pair ratio breaks through a threshold that is a certain number of standard deviations away from their average standard deviation.
You would then, go long in the symbol that is under-performing and short in the symbol that is over-performing.
When the pair moves back towards its average deviation, you would then close out both positions.
Many technical analysts use the Bollinger Bands indicator to spot pairs trading opportunities. In example, Bollinger Bands are set to be 2.2 Standard Deviations away from the average.
It is important to note a number things in regards to pairs trading:
A pairs trade is designed to be market neutral. This means that because of the positions that you take in two separate instruments, the direction of the market will not effect the position. The trade is designed to profit from the relationship between the two instruments, not the direction of the market itself.
Correlation moves along a scale of -1 to 1 with 1 meaning the instruments are perfectly correlated. Keep in mind that pairs trades can also work with pairs that are extremely negatively correlated (close to -1). When setting up a pairs trade with negatively correlated instruments, you would want to enter the positions when the two contracts are closer together than usual with the anticipation that they will move apart in opposite directions. In this case, you would enter positions in the same direction for both instead of going long in one and short in the other.
Another important piece of the puzzle is position size. The whole idea is to be market neutral. Therefore, you would not simply enter the same number of shares or contracts for each instrument. You would want to create the same actual dollar value in both positions. If you strictly use an equal number of shares on both sides and the dollar value of the two instruments are wildly different, then the side with the higher dollar value will have way too much weight in the trade.
The key to pairs trading is the correlation between the two instruments. One thing that many traders fail to realize is that the correlation between instruments is ever changing. Even during the course of a trade, their correlation can change. This is why correlation is important to always monitor when in a pairs trade. The trader should be prepared to exit any trades which have drastic changes and correlation.
