G30 we see buyers in control From a selling momentum in previous days we can except G30 to go pu to test the highest high as a change in direction is shown
GER40 trade ideas
2024-06-05 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is much less euphoric than the others. Obviously trending up but still below 18700, which was big resistance last time. Bulls already had 3 pushes up inside the wedge and deep pull-backs in between, which shows selling pressure and no giving up by the bears. What are the odds, that dax follows the sp500 and nq pump today for a new ath? Low imo. If bulls had it in them, we would have seen it already. If we will melt-through 18700, I’m obviously wrong and you need to get long for the rocket ride to 19000.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls made 18500 resistance and had a strong rally to 18660 where the bear trend line ran through. Bulls quickly gave up after it stalled there and we got a tick-perfect retest of the opening price, which again, bulls bought aggressively to make a new high at 18678, which is 20 points below the open of the week and 10 below the open of the month. So huge resistance above and I would not bet on a breakout here, unless bulls just melt through with follow through. Bulls closed above the daily 20ema which helps their case.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears tried to get below 18530 multiple times in the EU session but failed and gave up for a 143 point rally. They see this bull wedge with 3 pushes up and want a reversal down and break below the wedge to 18450. R:R above 18650 is on the bear side and I will look for weakness against 18700.
Invalidation is above 18710.
short term: Neutral with slight bearish hopes. Bears need to keep it below 18700. If they fail, I will turn full bull for 19000 or higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bar 28 + 33 were big bear bars with big tails below and both could not close below 18530. Bears were warned there and bulls had to get long latest at bar 39 which was the third consecutive bull bar and a close above the 15m 20ema. From there you could have drawn the lower bull trend line and get long on bar 57 again.
call/vuyi think Dax might try to rise but lets be arlet. these days i don't trust stocks because they are overbought
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Here is my update from yesterday after hours with an update for short term, since we clearly broke outside of the channel.
dax
comment: Globex perfectly retested the breakout at 18630 but failed and the EU session just sold off big time to a lower low. It was a small break below the bear channel line but ultimately a bear trap and market then tested the upper channel line. Market closed at the lows and under the important price 18500.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the third push down inside the bear channel as a lower high and now want a trend reversal to test back to 18700. They have not been able to make higher highs this week and that show’s weakness. The big bull trend line on the daily chart is still alive and as long as they are near the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line, they will BTFD. Next target is break above the bear channel line around 18530.
Invalidation is below 18380.
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They want the market to continue to go sideways to down to break below the big bull trend line on the daily tf. 18400 is still resistance and therefore we are in an descending triangle and bears have a low chance of breaking below. They need consecutive bear bars below 18400 to strengthen their case.
Invalidation is above 18640.
short term: Neutral kinda. We will probably hit 18600 soon, where bears decide if it stays resistance or we test 18700 again. If it stays resistance, we could test 18400 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: APPLIES TO YESTERDAY - Bar 13 was the first strong bear bar, then bar 22 + 24 made new lows and stayed below the 15m 20ema. Enough reasons to go short and that was good for 200+ points. My room did not catch the first leg down because I was not at my desk but the second one for 100 points.
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action.
dax
comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
Prices have reacted from 18381.
Previous support located at 18550.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18520 (stop at 18420)
Our profit targets will be 18770 and 18850
Resistance: 18670 / 18750 / 18800
Support: 18600 / 18550 / 18500
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Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend and has been correcting through time rather than price, with the price decreasing slightly to 18,655, now around the VWAP of 18,656. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,443 and 18,890, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 55, indicating a further moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report. A potential recession in Germany has influenced market sentiment.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price increasing slightly to 8,343, now around the VWAP of 8,342. Support has adjusted to 8,174, while resistance has increased to 8,500. The RSI has increased slightly to 55, reflecting a slight improvement in sentiment compared to the previous report. Recent political stability in the UK has positively impacted the market.
Wall Street seems to have settled into a sideways/neutral trend, with the price decreasing notably before rebounding to 38,788, below the previous VWAP of 39,247. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,058 and 40,435, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 46, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Concerns over U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have weighed on the market.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 80.86, now below the previous VWAP of 82.47. Support has adjusted lower to 80.44, while resistance has increased to 84.50. The RSI has decreased to 37, indicating a strengthening of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. OPEC's decision to maintain current production levels has affected prices.
Gold has shifted to a neutral trend and is in a consolidation phase, with the price decreasing to 2,320, now below the previous VWAP of 2,364. Support has adjusted higher to 2,433, while resistance has decreased to 2,294. The RSI has decreased significantly to 43, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Market uncertainty regarding interest rates has influenced gold prices.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend but has moved into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.0852, now around the VWAP of 1.0840. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0780, while resistance has increased to 1.0900. The RSI has decreased to 56, indicating a slight moderation in bullish pressure compared to the previous report. Eurozone economic data showing weaker growth has impacted the pair.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2738, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2690. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2558, and resistance has decreased to 1.2822. The RSI has decreased slightly to 61, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Bank of England's comments on inflation have affected the pair.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 157.41, now above the previous VWAP of 156.41. Support has adjusted higher to 154.83, while resistance has increased to 157.99. The RSI has increased to 60, reflecting a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. The yen's weakness amid BoJ's dovish stance has driven the pair higher.
DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast will be for the price to drop to the bottom of the channel and after that move we'll have the scenario of the price continuing its descent to the area between 17.899 and 17.702 or reversing the trend after the touch and reaching the value of 18800.
New month. New BeginningsOn both charts we can see that at the end of May, volume began to decrease and prices seems to be moving sideways and holding.
Non farm payroll on Friday will be closey watched and may have the charts find direction as they will use the results to gauge the direction of interest rates.
The results are expected to be good but investor worry that a strong economy may prevent the interest rates from lowering.
I wil lkeep on te stance that good results will provide positive movements until I am shown other wise
GDAXI Germany 40 showed false breakoutGermany 40 seems false breakout, it's a great time to try short position, or cut some your stocks long positions.
GDAXI Germany 40 showed false breakoutGermany 40 seems false breakout, it's a great time to try short position, or cut some your stocks long positions.
GERMANY 30/40 DE30/40 Robbery Plan To make and take moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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LONG IDEAMarket has shifted favoring longs. Targets and annotations made in the chart. 18581.4 possible targets.
Key levels and annotations made on the chart.
Once the stop level of 18443.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated and no trades for the day
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
Risk engaged minimized to half following a loss on the previous idea.
GER30 Weekly Idea 5.28.24My Usual Setup that I didn't publish... still has some interesting levels to play out.
SHORT IDEAMy bias is still favoring the short side,
Targets and annotations made in the chart. 18300 possible short targets.
Key levels and annotations made on the chart.
Once the stop level of 18549.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
DAX Tests Critical Support after Hotter German InflationConsumer price pressures in Germany accelerated in April to 2.4% y/y, which marked the first uptick since December. Eurozone inflation meanwhile persisted at the same level (May preliminary due on Friday), while wages in the region increased in the first quarter. This has created some worries around the disinflation process and the central bank’s prospects for less restrictive stance.
GER30 extends its slide from the recent all-time peak into the third week as a result and now tests a crucial support area. It breaches the EMA200 (H4) threatening the 38.2% Fibonacci of its last leg up. This would pause the bullish momentum and create risk for deeper pullback towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but we are cautious around sustained weakness.
Recent European inflation data may have showed some persistence and European officials may have warned against back-to-back rate cuts, but the ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to pivot and slash rates next week. This shift towards looser monetary setting, along with Germany’s exit for recession, are supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, the RSI is oversold and if GER30 manages to hold the pivotal EMA200 and 38.2% Fibo, its bullish bias would be reaffirmed and could lead to new record highs.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SHORT IDEA
Anticipating a continuation lower during this session and continuation during the New York Sessions. Longs seem unfavorable
Annotations and anticipated key levels made in the chart for partials and potential targets.
Once the stop level of 18670 level is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for a new opportunity.
As usual, manage risk appropriately and conserve capital
$DAX40 is reversing downTVC:DEU40 is close to confirm a top and a break below 18450 will confirm that
GER30 SETUP GER30 expected move today or tomorrow but we expect it to bounce on our OB the we executed uor trades
