downtrendGiven the behavior of the index within the specified support range, it is expected that the continuation of the downward trend will form according to the specified paths.
US30 trade ideas
US30 Trade Update – 21/04/2025 🚨 US30 Trade Update – 21/04/2025 🚨
📉 US30 Continues Downtrend!
The Dow Jones remains under heavy pressure after rejecting 40,701 resistance last week. Price is now grinding below EMAs with a bearish structure and eyeing the next support at 38,400.
🔍 Key Observations:
❌ Strong rejection from 40,701
📉 EMA 8/21 crossover remains bearish
🔻 Price consolidating near 38,800
⚠️ If 38,400 breaks → eyes on 36,743 next major support
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔻 Short below 38,400 → Target 36,743
🔹 Long only if price flips 39,800 and holds
🧨 Bearish bias intact unless bulls reclaim trend control
📌 No signs of reversal yet. Trend favors sellers — watch 38,400 for breakout or bounce.
Bears Dominate US30 – 36,800 In Sight?Price broke below the 39,070 support zone and is continuing lower. Bears remain firmly in control, with no signs of reversal yet. All eyes on the next key support at 36,800🔽.
🔼 Resistance: 39,070
🔽 Support: 36,800
As long as price remains under 39,070, bearish bias holds. A retest of broken support could act as a resistance for short opportunities. No clean bullish setup unless we reclaim that level.
📰 Sentiment: Risk-off tone continues with traders cautious around economic data and earnings season.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Dow jones 38500?Dow jones 38500?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been experiencing volatility recently, influenced by factors such as weak earnings reports and global economic concerns. The index fell 507 points (1.3%) in its latest session, primarily due to a sharp decline in UnitedHealth shares following an earnings miss
US30 sellI believe US30 is heading lower for numerous reasons:
- It is really hard to deduce anything from price action on the 3 month and monthly timeframe.
- However, price on the weekly did hit a major liquidity level at 37,250 and rejected it with a lot of bullish orders.
- 40,750 is a liquidity level that has price has failed to close above in two consecutive weeks.
- Moreover, the two previous weeks, price has rejected 40,750 by forming a lower low the next week, which indicates that price is bearish.
- Last week, we saw a bearish candlestick closure on the weekly, which indicates that there is not enough momentum/buy orders for price to go higher.
- Hence, the weekly timeframe is bearish
- The daily timeframe confirms the weekly bias with a number of confluences.
- First of all, we see that price took a lot of buy orders at 37,250 and formed a double bottom.
- Price peaked at 40,750 and the level has been rejected twice with a double top.
-What confirms my bearish bias is that price is that we saw a candlestick closure below 39,560 (this is a region where we see a daily body closure).
- On the daily, price is hence bearish and the next liquidity points are at 38,250 and at 37,500.
- I believe that price is headed to those regions
- On the 4 hour timeframe, we see that price has already formed a textbook sell setup.
- Price collected sell orders at 40,000 on Thursday.
- Price then retraced from the 39,000 level and collected more sell orders at 39,400.
- My 4H take profit is at 38,650.
- Until then, my job is to monitor whether price will fail to reach that target and collect more sell orders at 39,400 or at 39,000.
US30 – Monthly Market Structure Analysis (April 2025) – OLHC BUY
As we analyze the monthly structure of the US30 index for April 2025, several key technical developments and strategic insights are worth noting:
1. Monthly Low Established:
The price action for this month has thus far established a significant low, indicating a potential bottoming pattern that may signal the beginning of a bullish move.
2. Key Support Level and First Rejection:
A strong bullish rejection was observed at the 37,000 level, which has proven to be a substantial support zone. This level held firmly, suggesting strong buyer interest and institutional accumulation.
3.Target Projection:
My primary take-profit target for this upward move is projected at **41,834.42** , which aligns with higher timeframe resistance and Fibonacci extension levels. This offers a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for long entries.
4. Waiting for Confirmation:
At present, I am closely monitoring price behavior near a **minor support zone**, where I anticipate another rejection that could provide the ideal entry signal for initiating buy positions. Patience remains key as we await further confirmation.
5. Strategic Considerations:
- Risk Management: Traders are advised to apply proper risk management protocols. Avoid over-leveraging, and ensure your trade size is appropriate to your account equity.
- Discipline: Do not rush into trades. Wait for solid confirmation signals, such as bullish candlestick patterns or momentum shifts, before committing capital.
- Market Conditions: Be aware of upcoming economic events or fundamental news that may impact US indices, and adjust your strategy accordingly.
6. Community Engagement:
If you found this analysis insightful and aligned with your trading view, feel free to like, share, and follow for more structured market updates and trading ideas.
Let’s trade smart, stay patient, and manage risk with precision. All the best this month!
Dow JonesDow Jones
MTF Analysis
Dow JonesYearly Demand 36,970.0
Dow Jones 6 Month Demand DMIP 35,008.0
Dow Jones Qtrly Demand 37,786.0
Dow JonesMonthly Demand BUFL 38,581.0
Dow JonesWeekly Demand Resistance now support 36,970.0
Dow Jones Daily DMIP 37,390.0
ENTRY -1 Long 37,390.0
SL 37,128.0
RISK 262.0
Target as per Entry 45,307.0
RR 30.2
DETAIL ANALYSIS OF US30 US30 has reversed from bullish to bearish on daily timeframe However on monthly timeframe the long term Bullish trend is intact on Monthly timeframe applying SMC i have marked the chart and possible scenario is of downward likely market will take on the previous low and apparently on daily time frame its probably 4th wave low is yet to be identified therefore will look for selling with stop above 41000
Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
DOW/US30 - what the expectation from the marketTeam, last week we kill the market
I have prepare for the next week strategy
We currently have some small volume position long at this stage
and will add more if the market down to next level,
However, we expect some recovery at this stage.
Strategy:
TARGET 1 - 39266-39335
TARGET 2 - 39375-39467
TARGET 3 at 39600-39929
TARGET 4 at 40.400-41400 - run with mini volume and hold.
US30 Outlook on 4H TF - LONG US30 - Bullish Wave 5 Push to 42,000 📈
We're still in a Wave 4 correction on the daily, but price just retested Wave 4 lows at 38,900 area and held (for now). Now forming a double bottom on the 4H, and Wave 1 is starting on the 1H.
Looking for a Wave 5 push up toward 42,000 before a major selloff.
Key Levels:
🔹 Support: 38,970
🔹 TP Zones: 40,000 → 41,000 → 42,000
🔻 Short Bias kicks in after Wave 5 completes (Target: 38,100-38,200)
Plan: Buy dips while above 38,900, scale out near 42K, watch for reversal confirmation.
Bearish drop?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot nd could drop to the 1st support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 39,291.00
1st Support: 37,024.36
1st Resistance: 40,624.32
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Avoid Trading Indices on Long Weekends and Bank HolidaysTrading indices during long weekends or bank holidays can be risky due to lower liquidity and higher volatility. Many major financial institutions and market participants are away, leading to thinner trading volumes. This can cause exaggerated price swings, making it harder to execute trades at desired levels. Additionally, unexpected news or geopolitical events over the extended break can trigger sharp gaps when markets reopen, increasing the chances of significant losses.
Another key concern is the lack of immediate reaction time. Since markets are closed for an extended period, traders have no opportunity to adjust positions in response to breaking news. This can leave portfolios exposed to unforeseen risks. Spreads on indices also tend to widen during these times, increasing trading costs. For these reasons, it’s often safer to wait for normal trading conditions rather than risking unpredictable moves during illiquid holiday sessions.
DJI Daily Chart Analysis: Price Rejected at Mid-Band Resistance
The price is below the middle line (likely a 20-day moving average) of the Bollinger Bands, which typically signals bearish momentum.
Recent price action shows a lower high and a lower low pattern, indicating the continuation of a downtrend.
The candlesticks are mostly red with increasing volume of selling pressure.
Bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility.
The price recently pierced the lower Bollinger Band, which often indicates a potential for short-term rebound—but in a strong downtrend, this could also mean acceleration to the downside.
Key Support Zone : Around 38,000 to 38,500, where previous buying occurred in early April. If broken, further downside to 37,000 is likely.
Key Resistance Zone : Near 40,500 to 41,000, aligning with the mid-Bollinger Band. This area has been tested and rejected multiple times.
Trade Idea: US30 Short (SELL STOP)Technical Analysis Summary:
Daily Chart (Macro View):
• Trend: Bearish short-term (price is below the moving average, sharp recent drop).
• MACD: Bearish momentum building with a deepening histogram.
• RSI: At 42.22, pointing down – no oversold condition yet, so further downside is probable.
15-Minute Chart (Mid-Term Momentum):
• Trend: Recently broke down from consolidation, failed to reclaim previous high.
• MACD: Strong bearish crossover, deep in negative territory.
• RSI: At 39.20, not oversold – room to fall.
3-Minute Chart (Entry Timing):
• Trend: Weak recovery attempt stalled below moving average.
• MACD: Flat to downtrend.
• RSI: Around 40, suggesting more downside pressure without being oversold.
⸻
Fundamental Context (if relevant to US30):
• Rising geopolitical tensions and weak earnings reports (assumed).
• Dovish Fed fading, bond yields rising — bearish for equities.
• Fear-driven sentiment often hurts cyclical indices like US30.
⸻
Trade Setup (SHORT):
• Entry: 39595 (current price area as per charts).
• Stop Loss (SL): 40087
(Above minor resistance and 15M consolidation top)
• Take Profit (TP): 38650
(Recent support zone, room for price to breathe before demand zone)
FUSIONMARKETS:US30
Potential bearish drop?DJ30 is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 39,332.63
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 40,743.45
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 37,047.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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