BR1! trade ideas
Where Will Energy Bottom? Brent OilTaking another stab here at picking a bottom in oil. Midpoints are difficult to decipher in such drastic sell-offs but if you catch the bottom we'll be well rewarded with an inevitable massive short squeeze. Regardless, this is def a high-risk trade. The relentless sell-off seems to be heavily algo-driven and major energy funds liquidating (according to rumors) so if another major energy fund goes tits-up it could crash the price right through my buy zone.
A considerable dip below the 59.47 target shown here is likely so my stops wont be hit until below 55.50. VERY wide stops. Downsize positions and manage risk accordingly. Entries for me are 58.84 and down. No urgency to get entries filled today with the shortened US. Thanksgiving session.
Zoom this in on a daily timeframe and you'll note decent respect of all fib levels, suggesting this could be a valid setup.
Oil Sell-off Almost CompleteStalking a very nice setup here on UK Oil...
Starting with the first fib anchor point at the swing high of 86.69, the yellow circle highlights a distinct candle pattern that qualifies as a midpoint (place 50% fib here). Target zone for considering the sell-off complete and consider getting long is 69.20 and slightly below.
As secondary confirmation that this fib setup has legitimacy, look how well price respected the other fib levels (which just land where they may when placing the 50% fib through the midpoint first and foremost)
Similar setup in WTI as expected
CRUDE OIL: Sees Further Upside, Eyes The 70.41 Region CRUDE OIL: Sees Further Upside, Eyes The 70.41 Region
CRUDE OIL: The commodity faces further recovery threats following its higher close on Wednesday. On the downside, support resides at the 69.50 level where a break will expose the 69.00 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 68.50 level. Further down, support resides at the 68.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 70.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 71.00 level. A break above here will aim at the 71.50 level and then the 72.00 level followed by the 72.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the upside.
BR1Retraction can be expected up to the support channel where OBO is formed in the log.
Another important factor is the significant decline in long positions in oil contracts over the past two months. According to CFTC data, long positions in futures oil contracts have experienced a decrease of about 40% since April.
My analysis is not an investment recommendation, it is my personal work
BRENT futures on MOEX 1D price analysis Disclaimer: I'am working here just with technical analyses, this work is not include fundamental trends analyses, only few words and mathematical analysis.
Here is my thoughts of current oil price movement.
Last week was pretty good for a price, can we expect to downtrend for next week or next 2-3 days ?
In my opinion there was first try to leave channel (first wave), second was more successful (second wave) and now we can expect for a third wave?
1D MacD is shouting: SELL, but due to 4H MacD all is under control and we can expect for a new heights.
If we talk about growth: as for me i found only 2 growth waves, so i could expect 69.31 as first reversal level or 67.55. I can expect growth trend up to corridor created by 2 blue lines.
I believe that we will see 67.55, but confirmation of strong downtrend is under of grey corridor ( light blue area ).
News: Last week has positive news background about opec+ and etc. Can we expect support of positive news background or the decrease in investors' interest after last week's news? US report told us about huge crude oil reserves and low reserves of gasoline... WTI confidently going down on this news. Russian Ruble, MICEX index looks strong and MICEX oil industry index has positive trend.
