2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2500
bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy.
Invalidation is below 2450.
bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart.
Invalidation is above 2475.
short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: none
trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
