#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. All bull wedges broken but the broad bull channel continues. Market only moved sideways, so no deeper meaning to this. Bears could not get a single daily close below the daily ema. Unless that changes, bulls are heavily favored to try 2600. Bears are only allowed to speak again once they have a daily close below 2500.
Quote from last week:
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
comment: 4th week between 2500 and 2570. 3rd consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart but does that mean this is bearish? Hell no. Bears still have no daily close below the daily ema and until that changes, bulls are in control but only barely anymore. The longer a trading range continues, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for both sides are 50/50 again. No deeper meaning to this until we break below 2500 or above 2570.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that. —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above 2500.
Only updated 2517 to 2500. Still unchanged bull case for weeks now.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2527 and now we are at 2524. Hope you did not longed the highs or shorted the lows. Spot on outlook that was.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. —unchanged because we moved 3 points from Friday’s close to Friday’s close.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bull gap to 2490. It’s still there on the weekly but it currently does not help with the daily/weekly updates.
