GD1! trade ideas
Gold Challenges New High - Expecting More Upside Inflation was only keenly felt, especially after the pandemic in April 2021, when the CPI broke above 2% to 4.15%, and then quickly soared to a high of 9% in June 2022.
However, gold has been signaling impending inflation since the year 2000, which was 24 years ago. Currently, gold is also indicating further upside potential over the long term. What will be the implications for inflation and ultimately interest rates down the road?
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold LongsGold Longs (S&P PMI) 9:45Am (ISM-PMI) 10Am - Price respects that low after displacement. Respects (CE) of the whole move. Respect the Inefficiencies in the new (PD Array). Textbook
Gold XAU GC LongGold had another very strong daily close today.
My DOL is Monday's high.
I will be looking for a pullback to respect a H1/H4 bullish array, to then give me the go ahead to enter on a bullish displacement on m5/m15 timeframe.
GOLD FuturesGold (GC) broke 2120 - now it's going to 2165
Actually it's not yet top Target - it's another Resistance area...
Analyze GOLD or XAUUSD by AI Investic Analytic StudioToday our AI has generate a strategy for trading GOLD future (GC1!) and XAUUSD which are two scenarios: Buy and Sell.
For Gold future (GC1!), strategy of Buy side or Bullish is Entry: 2113.5, SL: 2108.5, TP: 2123.5 and strategy of Sell side or Bearish is Entry: 2123.5, SL: 2128.5, TP: 2113.5.
For the XAUUSD, strategy of Buy side or Bullish is Entry: 2122, SL: 2117, TP: 2132 and strategy of Sell side or Bearish is Entry: 2132, SL: 2137, TP: 2122
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out!Its been years of waiting and I think it is about time!
Gold is rotating back and should finally close the week outside of the constipation box (yellow).
MACD and VolDiv are crossing above and should be supporting a rise in Gold.
New target for this run, 2600 (Jan 2025).
Heads up!
Gold (Futures) updateGold is at new high and hit the 1st UP Target = 2120
1st - because it's going higher, guess to at least 2200!
Gold-Will the bulls see yet another breakout failure?Bullish narratives I've seen published online over the last couple of years:
1. Gold is a hedge against inflation
2. BRICS Currency-it will be backed by gold
3. China is hoarding gold
4. Central banks are gobbling up gold
Given all these narratives, one would think gold has some pretty strong tailwinds yet it has had 3 breakout failures since these narratives began. Will this 4th breakout we are currently experiencing be "THE ONE"? Or is this LT chart forming a possible distribution pattern around the $2K price point?
When I look at this chart in its simplest format...the inability to firmly breakout 3 times previously tells me the market has been selling into the strength vs. a true belief in its bullishness. Typically you want to see a chart "break, test and go"...this certainly did not happen.
This evenings strong move up due to "war news" is now just about to a key area of resistance...the non-horizontal trend line (blue dotted line).
Reality of golds usefulness: "More than 80% of the extracted gold is used to make jewelry, therefore the jewelry industry is by far the largest processing sector for gold.”
So in simplest macro terms: to be bullish on golds breakout, one should be very, very bullish on the male consumer buying up jewelry to be given to his companion or be very, very bullish on the female consumer buying or wanting gold jewelry.
Newsflash-Taylor Swift tickets & Sephora have eaten away at the female consumer over the last couple of years and gold jewelry is not something on the Christmas list right now! (just saying...)
So I'll go out on the limb and say the gap up this evening will end up being a sell the news sort of event and we will eventually see yet another breakout failure.
Can't wait to hear all the gold bugs tell me I'm an idiot...but honestly, I just don't get the allure of gold and why it's discussed so much in trading/markets. We don't go backwards in time, ever. IMO gold is no longer what it used to be in terms of it's market impact hence why these breakouts keep failing...instead it's now mostly just used to make beautiful jewelry.
GOLD New targetGold broke out of the triangle..and New tgt calculated and got activated when it broke out of the triangle pattern...So buy....
Mar 4th 2024 GC Update - Potentially a start of something bigAnother share from the TTR, this time is a commodity chart - #GC
Beautiful move up on Friday!
The price has stopped right at the trendline support; there is one more resistance box above it. When/If it is broken, we will see the next trendline tested again, followed by a breakout box.
This is a very bullish action as if the price continues to break out, then expect some geopolitical issues to come next, which means the markets could be near its maj top!
GC 15M ICT UNICORN BULLISH BREAKERGC created nice 15M bullish breaker aligning with 15M FVG. I will be targeting weekly equal highs as a draw on liquidity. 1:2 RR would be available in this trade
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well.
Interesting day today. Very strong move by the bulls above many bear trend lines. The first move to 2046 happened exactly in the Globex session as i said but the spike to 2058 was so big, that all bears had to give up. I expect follow through.
Quote from yesterday:
At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest.
bull case: Bulls want follow through and i got a measured move target around 2080-2090. If this was a w1, it could lead up to 2100+ again. If bulls can keep the giant bull gap open, i’d enter on a stop 2060 for 2080 and higher.
bear case: Bears gave up on the spike bar and will be cautious before shorting again, especially not the bull flag we formed into the close. If they could close the gap to 2046, this might reverse completely but for now bulls are in control.
short term: neutral until we break 2060, then it’s up, below 2046 is more down
medium-long term: sideways
trade of the day: long double bottom one tick above bar 8, which could have given you the complete spike up. Monday and Wednesday could not break 2030 and it was an obvious buy area
Gold forecastgold forecast. We believe that 3 downward waves have been completed after 5 upward waves since October 2023. So we would now be in a new wave to the upside, targeting 2150.
GOLD Long Idea-This week I've had an overall bullish bias for Gold to head to the PWH after we put in a fractal swing low on the weekly, confluence with wicking below several weekly lows.
-Although today's Daily candle close isn't super strong, I'm still leaning towards looking for longs.
-Daily candle rejected from the Daily +OB again, and also failed to displace and close below Tuesdays Low.
-I am targeting Wednesdays high, and the PWW.
-I want to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected, followed by a displacement entry confirmation on M15/M5.
Bearish on GoldIn reviewing the chart, I've observed a recurring descending triangle pattern. Despite numerous attempts to break out, the pattern has consistently failed. My entry point stands at $2042.7. For the exit strategy, I plan to set the price slightly above the last swing high, while aiming to secure profits at the last swing low.
Entry: $2042.7
Exit: $2045.8
Take Profit: 2033.4
Gold FuturesGold Futures Sells Taking Minor (Sell Side Liquidity) Tapping Into Prominent (Fair Value).
GOLD moving in a bearish flagOn a 1-hour timeframe, we are currently in a bearish flag pattern. The green box represents a significant resistance line, so trade caution if you are considering opening long positions. Additionally, there is a decrease in trading volumes, which is also term for short move.
The trading setup may involve entering the market within the flag pattern, considering both support and resistance lines, and utilizing the Williams Alligator angles, preferably on the 15-minute timeframe.
IMPORTANT! Always follow the RM strategy!
Trade GOLD Features at BingX: bingx.com
My followers have 2% cashback from my commission. Deposit easily in crypto. No need to be resident of the particular country!
Options Blueprint Series: Protective Puts for Market DefenseIntroduction to Protective Puts: Safeguarding Your Investments with Options
In the ever-fluctuating world of finance, protective puts emerge as a strategy for investors aiming to shield their portfolios from unexpected downturns. This options blueprint series delves into the intricacies of protective puts, presenting them as a pivotal component in the arsenal of market defense mechanisms.
Understanding Gold Futures
Before we navigate the strategic utilization of protective puts, it's essential to grasp the fundamentals of Gold Futures traded on the COMEX exchange. Gold Futures are contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold at a predetermined price on a set future date. These contracts are standardized in terms of quality, quantity, and delivery time, making them a popular tool for risk management.
Contract Specifications:
Contract Size: One Gold Futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold.
Point Value: Each point move in the gold price equates to a $100 change per contract.
Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margin requirements vary (currently $8,300 per contract), providing leverage to traders but also increasing risk.
Trading Hours: Gold Futures trading hours extend beyond the traditional market hours (currently 23 hours of trading per day), offering flexibility to traders across the globe.
In addition to standard Gold Futures, investors and traders can also consider Micro Gold Futures as a more granular tool for their trading and hedging strategies. Micro Gold Futures represent 10 troy ounces of gold, offering a tenth of the size of a standard Gold Futures contract. This smaller contract size allows for greater precision in position sizing, making it easier for individual investors to tailor their investment strategies to their specific risk tolerance and market outlook. Micro Gold Futures follow the same trading hours and quality standards as their standard counterparts, providing the same level of liquidity and access but with added flexibility.
These specifications underscore the liquidity and accessibility of both Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, making them attractive instruments for a diverse range of trading strategies, including protective puts. The addition of Micro Gold Futures to your trading arsenal can offer more precise control over your investment exposure, enhancing your ability to implement protective measures like puts effectively.
Implementing Protective Puts with Gold Futures
The protective put strategy entails purchasing a put option for an asset you own, in this case, Gold Futures. This approach effectively sets a floor on the potential losses should gold prices plummet, while still allowing for unlimited gains if gold prices soar.
This graph illustrates the payoff of a put strategy. Combining such outcome with a Long Gold Futures Positions would present a loss limitation below the put option's strike price, reflecting the insured nature of the investment against significant downturns. Conversely, the graph indicates the potential for unlimited gains, minus the cost of the put premium, as gold prices rise.
Why Use Protective Puts?
The allure of protective puts lies in their ability to provide a safety net for investors, particularly in the volatile realm of Gold Futures trading. This strategy is akin to purchasing insurance for your portfolio; it's about preparedness, not prediction. In an unpredictable market, protective puts are a testament to the adage, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."
Cost of Protection
The cost of purchasing a put option, known as the premium, is the price paid for downside protection. While this cost can impact overall returns, the premium is often viewed as a reasonable fee for the insurance it provides against significant losses. Savvy investors consider this cost an investment in portfolio stability and risk management.
How Protective Puts Work
Understanding the mechanics of protective puts is crucial for effectively employing this strategy in the context of Gold Futures trading. This section demystifies the process, guiding investors on how to leverage protective puts for market defense.
The Mechanics of Protective Puts
Purchasing the Put Option: The first step involves buying a put option for the Gold Futures contracts you own. This put option grants you the right, but not the obligation, to sell your futures contracts at a specific strike price up to the option's expiration date.
Choosing the Strike Price: The strike price should reflect the level of protection you desire. A strike price set below the current market price of the Gold Futures offers a balance between cost (premium) and the degree of protection.
Determining the Premium: The cost of the put option, or premium, varies based on several factors, including the strike price, the duration until expiration, and the volatility of the gold market. This premium is the maximum risk the investor faces, as it represents the cost of protection.
Scenario Outcomes:
If Gold Prices Fall: Should the market price of Gold Futures drop below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option, selling the futures contracts at the protected strike price, thereby minimizing losses.
If Gold Prices Rise: In the event that gold prices increase, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the rise in the value of their Gold Futures contracts, less the cost of the premium.
Implementing Protective Puts in Your Portfolio
To effectively implement protective puts in your investment strategy, consider the following steps:
Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Determine the level of downside protection you need based on your risk appetite and investment goals.
Select the Appropriate Put Options: Choose put options with strike prices and expiration dates that align with your desired level of protection and market outlook.
Monitor the Market: Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your protective put strategy as necessary to align with changing market dynamics and investment objectives.
Scenario Analysis: Protective Puts in Action
Let's explore how protective puts would work out in the current Gold Futures market scenario.
In a bullish market, where Gold Futures prices are rising, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the increase in the value of their Gold Futures contracts. The cost of the put option (the premium) is the only loss, considered an insurance expense against downside risk.
In a bearish market, Gold Futures prices decline. If the price falls below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option to sell the futures at the strike price, thus minimizing losses.
In a market where Gold Futures prices remain relatively stable, the protective put option may expire worthless. The investor retains ownership of the futures contracts, which have not significantly changed in value, losing only the premium paid for the put option.
Considerations and Best Practices
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Weigh the cost of the put option premiums against the potential benefits of downside protection. Protective puts are an investment in peace of mind and should be evaluated as part of a broader risk management strategy.
Diversification: While protective puts offer specific risk mitigation for Gold Futures, consider diversification across different asset classes such as WTI Oil Futures, Yield Futures, etc. and strategies as a comprehensive approach to portfolio risk management.
Conclusion
Protective puts are a powerful tool for investors in Gold Futures, offering a methodical approach to safeguarding investments against adverse market movements. By thoughtfully implementing protective puts, investors can achieve a balanced portfolio, characterized by reduced risk and preserved potential for growth. As we move forward in our Options Blueprint Series, the importance of a disciplined approach to risk management and strategic planning cannot be overstated in the pursuit of investment success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well.
bull case: Bulls stalled the market around 2040 which is important now. Bears made lower lows and broke below the triangle. Bulls need to trade back above 2040 and they want a retest of the smaller bear trend line around 2046 and then make a higher high above 2050. At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest. As long as they keep it above 2034, the market is neutral.
bear case: Bears broke below the triangle and are trading inside a weak looking bear channel. Their next target is to trade below 2034 and make lower lows. They want the market to stay below 2044.
short term: neutral with maybe a slightly higher chance for the bears but need 1h close below 2034 for that.
medium-long term: neutral until breakout of bigger triangle with follow through
trade of the day: short 2050 which is holding as resistance. there was a good triple top bar 4, 8, 11
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE on this GC Future Short...?COMEX:GC1!
YOO family....I hope all is well>>> Lets Chop it Up and Go over this Future Short...
Here are the few things I will need to see in PA before I enter SHORT...
1) On Friday Feb. 23rd Buyers pushed price up nearly 200pts during both session combined London & NY and Entered a major a Daily Supply Zone. Sellers held resistance inside the Daily Supply around Major KEY LEVEL ($2050.00) AND immediately pushed price back down...
2) Now If sellers can stand their ground and HOLD ($2050.00) as Major Resistance and push price lower breaking demand then we may be compelled to go short...
3) I want to see Price Drop $10.00 trading back down to ($2040.00) and break that minor level o/support and enter the 30m indecision candle CPB Demand...
4) Now IF I can have it all my way!! I want to see the CPB demand fail with at least a 1Hr candle wick below and then I'll be very interested in going Short. *Catching the Retest of Support Level that failed around ($2040.00).
5) Now even if the CPB Demand doesn't fail and pushes price back up into the support level that failed around ($2040.00) then I will still enter Short as long as long as we can get candle closures on both the 30&15m candle sticks inside the CPB demand & under failed support level. Then I will enter short on the retest...***I need to price to close under support though on both the 30&15m candles! Very very important factor and also price needs to be trading underneath the RED V-Wap as a final cherry on the top confluence to enter...
7) We also have a Major iR/LQ Trend that needs to be swept to the downside on the 4Hr TF
(which will be the move I am looking to capitalize on...) This is also why I believe the Market is getting ready to go short, to rebalance itself out...Remember Buyers and Sellers both have to have fair play! The market has imbalance currently to the upside that buyers have created and now we need to sellers to come and participate to rebalance the market and create fair play for both parties...
6) Now if we can see the following Play out in PA stated in the steps above, then I will look to target the next Daily Support Level around ($2028.5). Roughly around 115 points... We can easily catch a solid +2-3R % gain depending on your management system...
***Remember nothing is set in stone, This is simply a Short narrative I want to see play out. That does not mean that it will because play the game of probabilities... However I am very confident in my reading of PA...
Now lets sit back N stalk like the saltwater croc!
#BHM500K #NewERA
