The Fed Minutes should provide clairity on Gold's directionThe commodities space is thriving thanks to the positive influence of geopolitics, central bank buying, a surge in manufacturing, and a robust economy. These factors have ignited a widespread rally in the precious metals space, painting a promising picture for investors and traders.
Today, we are eagerly awaiting the release of the March CPI print, a crucial economic indicator. The consensus is that the core CPI will show a month-over-month increase of +0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.4%. Additionally, the CME FedWatch tool suggests a 50/50 chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut in June, adding to the anticipation.
Later in the session, we will have the March FOMC minutes, where Fed officials previously projected three interest rate cuts in 2024 and cited, "We are not concerned about January and February's higher than expected inflation data." Today's number could confirm that January and February were just a "bump in the road." So we continue to hang on the balance of two to three interest rate cuts.
The path of least resistance looks to remain higher in Gold, fueled by Central Bank buying, a softer U.S. Dollar, and weaker treasury yields, despite a repricing from six interest rate cuts in 2024 to now two or three. We will continue to monitor $2400 as the next likely upside target, while $2350 remains critical support.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
