DAX Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish trend pattern
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening
Until the strong resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here.
DE40 trade ideas
Weekly Technical Analysis 17-06-2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price decreasing to 17,977, now below the VWAP of 18,463. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,975 and 18,931, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 34, indicating a further moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price decreasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,219. Support has adjusted to 8,097, while resistance has increased to 8,342. The RSI has decreased to 39, reflecting a significant weakening in momentum compared to the previous report.
Wall Street has made no major upside or downside progress in the past 3 months - remaining in a neutral consolidation phase, with the price recently decreasing to 38,468, now below the VWAP of 38,636. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,135 and 39,137, respectively. The RSI has slightly decreased to 40, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 82.12 and probing the April lows and 75.00, now above the VWAP of 81.21. Support has adjusted higher to 77.47, while resistance has increased to 84.95. The RSI has increased to 51, indicating a strengthening of bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Gold is trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently increasing to 2,321, now around the previous VWAP of 2,322. Support has adjusted higher to 2,286, while resistance has decreased to 2,375. The RSI has increased to 47, indicating a moderation of bearish momentum compared to the previous report.
EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently decreasing to 1.0706, now below the VWAP of 1.0812 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0681, while resistance has increased to 1.0942. The RSI has decreased to 38, indicating a significant increase in bearish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2660, now around the VWAP of 1.2742. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2660, and resistance has decreased to 1.2822. The RSI has decreased to 43, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - although it has still not overcome the late April peak - and has just reentered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 157.61, now above the previous VWAP of 156.78. Support has adjusted higher to 155.37, while resistance has increased to 158.20. The RSI has increased to 59, reflecting a strengthening of bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
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#DAX Bearish WedgeI have, ad nauseam, over the last several months tweeted examples of the dangers and consequences of the bearish rising wedge pattern. Here on the German main index we have a decade long pattern with five waves, the last one seemingly ending with a textbook overthrow. If this is so, this index could in my view soon start a strong move to around the 8000 point mark.
De30Germany market going bullish side. Just follow my analysis if u like it . Stop loss follow & take profit open.
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
comment: Bears finally did it. They broke to the downside when the higher probability trade was bullish. They actually broke below the expanding triangle which held for 4 weeks and sliced through the bull trend line that began 2022-10-03. For the dax which made 60.69% in that time, to just slice through that line, is something unusual to say the least. Is it now time to get uber bearish? I don’t think so. News outlets will tell you it’s because of eurozone fear and elections and blablabla. We are 5% from the ath. That’s a small pull-back to the neckline and the big 18000 support. Entering new shorts down here is as bad of a trade as you can come up with.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range.
key levels: small range 17600 / 18400
bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong.
Invalidation is below 17550.
bear case: Big bear surprise on Thursday and Friday. The bull bar on Wednesday was strong enough in an overall max bullish market to break to the upside. They managed to break below two support trend lines. Now the important questions is, was this just a sell vacuum test to find new buyers or are we actually in a decent down turn to below 17000? No one knows. We are right an my neckline 18000 and last time we got here, we reversed up for a new ath. You simply can’t get bearish at these lows when they have been big support the last time. Could you hold onto existing shorts from above 18100 and see if we sell further to retest 17600? Absolutely. If the momentum is there again next week, that’s a reasonable target to the downside. I do think if bears can not hold it below 18160, they give up for a bigger pullback to at least 18300 and there it’s do or die for the bulls again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18300.
outlook last week: “Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18572 and now we are at 18016. Bad bullish outlook but I gave you the clear warning that if bears would get a good daily close below 18400, I’d go big on shorts for 18000 and that’s exactly what we hit.
short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it.
So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it and call it in my tradingroom? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: Caught a big swing for 300 points down to 18000 as I wrote in my last weeks outlook.
Chart update: Two paths ahead, bullish one is favored when bears step aside here at 18000 and bulls build buying pressure. If green path plays out, I expect this to be the right shoulder and that would be a decent place to sell everything (yes, your dog and granny too) to short this to freaking hell.
DAX (GER 40).... BULLISH!Price has traded through the Swing High with a strong close above.
Now, price has pulled back into a +FVG.
The Daily +FVG is overlapped by the Weekly +FVG, a strong confluence.
The expectation is for price to continue higher to the next recent swing high.
May profits be upon you.
GER40 Confirmed a Double Top Pattern or Something SimilarGER40 Confirmed a Double Top Pattern or Something Similar
The price broke out from the neckline of the pattern by confirming
in this way a bigger bearish wave.
It is still too early and DXY can make a small correction before it moves down more.
However it looks really good also with the current data.
If GER40 will manage to develop below the neckline of the pattern it
will move down even more as shown in the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on DAX Looking for Support SoonShort Term Elliott Wave in DAX suggests the Index is correcting cycle from 4.19.2024 low. The rally from 4.19.2024 low ended wave 1 at 18892.92. Wave 2 pullback is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (a) ended at 18515.84 and wave (b) ended at 18855.05. Wave (c) lower ended at 18394.43 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Wave ((x)) unfolded as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 18697.09 and wave (b) ended at 18365.53. Wave (c) higher ended at 18784.65 which completed wave ((x)) in higher degree.
The Index has resumed lower in wave ((y)). Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 18359.42 and wave (x) rally ended at 18652.90. Wave (y) lower is now in progress to complete wave ((y)) of 2 in higher degree. The Index has reached the extreme area from wave 1 peak. This area of support is at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)), which comes at 17981 – 18287.2. From this area, the Index should turn and resume higher or at minimum rally in 3 waves.
PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS DAX Professional Analysis of DAX Price Chart
The chart provides a historical perspective of the DAX index in EUR from 1980 to 2024, incorporating key technical analysis tools such as Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, trend channels, and volume profiles. Here’s an in-depth professional analysis of the chart:
Historical Context and Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend:
The DAX index has exhibited a consistent long-term upward trend, marked by significant bullish movements punctuated by notable corrections.
Key historical peaks and troughs are clearly depicted, with substantial growth observed post-2003 and during recent years up to 2024.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels:
Key Levels:
Important Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from significant highs and lows. These include levels such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786, which serve as crucial support and resistance zones.
Extension levels such as 1.618, 2.618, and 3.618 are used to project future price targets.
Current Position:
As of June 2024, the DAX index is trading around 18,265.68, nearing significant Fibonacci extension targets that suggest potential further upward movement.
Channel Analysis
Upward Channels:
The chart features multiple ascending channels indicating long-term bullish trends.
The DAX index has generally oscillated within these channels, finding support at the lower boundaries and encountering resistance at the upper boundaries.
Channel Boundaries:
Lower Boundary: Historically important support levels crucial for maintaining the bullish trend.
Upper Boundary: Potential resistance levels that could act as significant profit-taking zones.
Volume Profile Analysis
Volume Profile:
The volume profile on the right side of the chart provides insight into the traded volume at different price levels, highlighting areas of high activity.
Notable volume nodes indicate key levels of support and resistance where significant buying and selling have occurred.
Volume Trends:
Increased volume typically coincides with major price movements, indicating strong market interest and potential trend continuation or reversal points.
Future Projections
Bullish Projections:
Primary Targets:
Based on Fibonacci extensions, key future price targets include:
1.618 level at approximately 14,963.22
2.618 level at approximately 22,840.88
3.618 level at approximately 30,718.54
4.236 level at approximately 35,586.93
These targets suggest potential significant gains if the current trend continues and market conditions remain favorable.
Potential Correction Zones:
Intermediate Support Levels:
Possible pullbacks or corrections might find support at previous resistance levels turned into support, such as the 10,094.83 area.
Key retracement levels to monitor include 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements from recent highs.
Conclusion
Overall Outlook:
The long-term outlook for the DAX index remains bullish, supported by historical trends and technical analysis.
Investors should monitor key Fibonacci levels and trend channel boundaries for potential entry and exit points.
Risk Management:
It is essential to consider potential market volatility and external economic factors that could impact the DAX index.
Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying investments, is recommended to mitigate potential losses.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the historical and projected price movements of the DAX index, utilizing technical analysis tools. Investors and traders can use this information to make informed decisions in the market.
GER30 WEEKLY ANALYSISHello, traders here is a setup of GER30 as you can see the price has been bullish for the past weeks now and it has created a bearish flag pattern that signals price reversal. As you can see the price has been respecting the trendlines of the bearish flag pattern and now the price has shown a strong rejection on the upper trendline so for me I will wait for the price to break the previous support and turn it to resistance then I will look for selling opportunities.
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something.
Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here.
dax
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18700
bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force.
Invalidation is above 18660.
short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
Hindsight German Dax 13 JunMy Breakdown of 13 June 2024 German Dax. 5 minute is Better. 0700-088 Judas Swing above Yesterdays Close . Bearish Breaker Set up with Bearish FVG. 0850 Algo Does the business.
Targets using Standard deviations of the 0800- 0830 Opening Range. Draw on liquidity is the Yesterdays Longs who were in Profit. Thanks to ICT and Trader Tom .
