Perfect Stock Market Crash incomingBrandon Biggs, who predicted in detail the assasination atempt of Donald Trump, in his words: "the bullet flew by his hear". He also predicted a massive market crash.
www.ndtv.com
SPCUSD trade ideas
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Bulls and Bears zone for 12-12-2024ETH session is testing yesterday's Low which could provide some sense of direction for the day.
Level to watch: 6079 --- 6081
SPX500/ Trades Between (ATH) ZoneS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price has dropped from its all-time high (ATH) which is 6,099. It is currently trading within the ATH zone, which is located between 6,099 and 6,058, and continues to move toward 6,058.
For the bullish trend to be confirmed, the price must break the previous high resistance at 6,099 with a confirmed close of a 1H or 4H candle. This would pave the way for the price to reach a new all-time high (ATH) at 6,143.
The price is currently trading toward 6,058. If it breaks this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close, the bearish trend will be activated, targeting the 6,022 level.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6099, 6143, 6185
Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
How Short Sales Indicate Buying ActivityA Beginner-Friendly Guide to How Short Sales Indicate Buying Activity
█ What is a Short Sale?
A short sale is when someone sells a stock they don't actually own, usually because they believe the price will drop. They borrow the stock, sell it at the current price, and hope to buy it back later at a lower price to return to the lender.
However, not all short sales are for speculation! In fact, about half of all trades in the market are short sales, which seems strange unless we look deeper.
QUICK SUMMARY
🧐 What is a Short Sale?
A short sale is when someone sells a stock they don't own, hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.
Normally, people think short sales mean traders are betting that the stock will go down. But there's more to the story!
💡 Why Are Short Sales Important for Understanding Buying?
About half of all trades in the market are short sales! This means there's something deeper going on.
Market-makers (people who help match buyers and sellers) play a big role here.
👥 What Do Market-Makers Do?
They offer to sell a stock at a slightly higher price and buy at a slightly lower price.
When someone buys a stock from a market-maker, the market-maker short-sells the stock (because they don't own it yet).
✅ This means:
When you see a short sale, it's often because someone is buying from a market-maker. Therefore, short volume (total short sales) is a good indicator of buying activity!
█ Why Short Sales Reflect Buying Activity
Market-makers (MMs) play a crucial role in ensuring there are always buyers and sellers available in the market. Here's how they do it:
⚪ Market-Maker Role:
MMs quote both a buy price (bid) and a sell price (offer) for stocks. For example, they may offer to:
Buy at $19.95 (bid)
Sell at $20.00 (offer)
⚪ Short Sales in Practice:
When an MM offers to sell at $20.00, they often don't own the stock; they are "shorting" it to facilitate the sale. This means:
If an investor buys the stock at $20.00, the MM's sale is reported as a short sale.
If an investor sells the stock to the MM at $19.95, it is reported as a regular (long) sale.
Therefore:
Short sales = Investors buying the stock
Long sales = Investors selling the stock
█ Why This Matters
Since MMs are involved in most trades, short sales can be used as an indicator of buying activity. The more short sales there are, the more buying activity is happening in the market.
⚪ Dark Pools and Short Sales Data
Dark pools are private trading venues where large investors can trade without showing their orders publicly. These venues still have MMs who facilitate trades. Even though trades happen "in the dark," the MM behavior (shorting to sell) still applies.
FINRA collects and publishes data on short sales in dark pools. This data can help us see the relationship between short sales and stock price movements.
⚪ Testing the Idea
When researchers tested this idea, they found:
Higher Short Volume = Higher Stock Prices:
On days when short sales were above 50% of the total volume, the average stock price increased during the day.
When short sales were below 50%, the average stock price decreased.
The Trend is Clear:
When short sales make up a significant part of the market activity, it indicates strong buying interest.
█ The Findings
When short volume is high (above 35%), stocks tend to go up during the day.
When short volume is low (below 35%), stocks are more likely to go down.
Example:
If short volume = 50% → Expect higher buying activity and potential stock gains.
If short volume = 20% → Expect lower buying activity and potential stock declines.
🚀 Practical Tips for Traders
Investors can use short sale data from dark pools to:
Identify potential buying opportunities.
Understand market sentiment (whether people are more likely to buy or sell).
Anticipate short-term stock price movements based on the level of short sales.
Watch short volume data: High short volume can signal strong buying interest.
Use FINRA data: You can find free short sale data on FINRA's website to track these trends.
Be curious: This data isn't widely used yet, so understanding it can give you an edge!
█ Summary
⚪ Short sales are often a sign that investors are buying stocks.
⚪ Dark pool data offers valuable insights into market trends.
⚪ Monitoring short sale volume can help predict intraday stock gains and understand market behavior.
-----------------
Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
US500 evening updateBearish count for US500.
This count has price in wave (5) of ((5)), to complete impulse off 5 August low.
Again, not tagging median (red) line of pitchfork suggests bearish reversal.
Count valid below price of 6197, as ((1)) > ((3)) > ((5)).
SPX 6086 - VIX and Put/Call Ratio : the market combines it all.How to read the Chart?
SPX in main picture an below - with own scales- you find the Put/Call Ratio and and bottom the VIX.
Put/call Ratio tells us, how much euphoric is in the market. Values below 0.65 , market is bullish.
VIX tells us, how much volatilty is in the market. Values below 13 tells us normally, that market is prepared for larger or bigger movements. Values also important, for calculate price of warrants etc. Low VIX cheaper prices for warrants.
So: in the chart now you can see several time stamps with green marks on price SPX, VIX and P/C Ratio.
The meaning of this all: high coincidence with low values in VIX and P/C Ratio will high indicator for downward moves. The deeper values on VIX and P/C Ratio, the stronger the downward move.
Dan, 11th dec 2024
SPX Long in Long term to $5050, the up to $6060On the basis of previous cycles analysis.
S&P 500 index is now in the 1st wave of the new growth cycle. Technically and fundamentally now I expect the downside to $4200, but not for long.
After this SPX is going to reach the $5050 price level.
Then after 2nd wave correction (10%) 6 month before US President election SPX starts its 3rd wave up to $6060.
Historical Buy The Dips OpportunitiesWho remembers the UBER BEARISH sentiment back in early 2009?
That was the last seen, most epic "BUY THE DIP" opportunity.
Look at the chart below and see why!
#spx #sentiment
SPX on a long timeframeThis chart is mostly for me, so I can come back to it, later... but as you can see, we'll go up and down, but likely to go more up than down :)
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets.
The potential of a Super-cycle topping event.
This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career.
I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent.
But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through.
However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared.
I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
S&P 500 ,,, Support After passing out of a price level, it’s retesting it, and the chart has reacted to that as a S/R level. I'm going to get my decision to buy new stocks if only formed a good bullish candle here above the support line. The time will be about15 min before the bell.
If the chart loses this support, the next support will be the green zone.
S&P500Here we are looking to sell after the confirmation a support line breakout, retest and then we sell holding towards Targets 1 or 2, spoilt of choice for targets, up to you to decide and workout a safe and reliable SL.
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum.
Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%.
A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
us500 LONGus500 LONG
Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
INSTRUCTIONS:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
SPX Intraday LevelsIf you missed SPX short opportunity in last 2 days, you can still have one today hopefully.
S&P 500 Index→Simple Analysis SP:SPX The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024:
If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025).
What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support.
As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
SPX500 H4 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,020.01 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Spx: When Copper met SugarAn interesting thing when you see divergence of the copper and sugar futures and what happens to markets after they redirect. Could be nothing..but monthly topping tail seems to be useful on S&P to start roll over
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout.
Levels to watch: $6.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERNHere on S&P 500 price form a rising wedge pattern and now try to go down so if line 5581.35 break price is likely to fall and trader should go for short with expect profit target of 5247.44 and 4833.06 . Use money management
$SPX MONTHLY COUNTMonthly count of SPX currently on wave 5 and forming ending diagonal?
for daily and weekly structure im seeing a correction for wave 4 (red)
let's see how the story fold.
S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024:
As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500.
If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025).
What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support.
As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
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