5504 is to watch on the closing basisThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service.
SPXM trade ideas
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX has reached the top.SPX has reached the top.
Based on a 3m period, SPX looks like it reached the top.
Previous 3m candle closed below previous month. Signs of top, it can be fake-out but its near the RANGE (Red line)
The G2S is in the bear market. The black indicator line is below the G2S (Blue Line)
The 3m BREAKOUT indicator makes a lower high while price makes a higher high.
1 Year range looks very bullish, usually when you have a closed above the RANGE (Red line) its bullish, the price can go ballistic to the upside. This can be a fake-out too, we might have a big red candle at the end of the year.
Time will tell, i don't trade SPX but if i will buy this stock, i will buy it at the RANGE (Green Line) or when its too close to it.
S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
S&P 500 on Edge: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping Market TrendsMarket Overview: The Shockwave of New Tariffs
The S&P 500 is facing heightened volatility following former President Donald Trump’s newly proposed tariffs. Investors are grappling with concerns over economic growth, inflation, and potential trade retaliation. While markets initially showed resilience, the broader trend suggests growing unease as analysts dissect the long-term impact.
Since the announcement, the S&P 500 has shown choppy movements, attempting to hold key support levels. However, increased selling pressure could signal deeper corrections ahead.
Breaking Down the Tariffs: What’s at Stake?
Trump’s tariff plan includes:
• A 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods
• A 25% tariff on automobile imports
• Additional country-specific trade restrictions
These policies aim to boost domestic manufacturing but risk disrupting global supply chains, impacting corporate profit margins, and inflating consumer prices. The biggest concern? Potential retaliatory tariffs from trade partners, which could escalate tensions and further pressure equities.
Technical Analysis: S&P 500 at a Crossroads
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Support: 5,000 (psychological level), 4,850 (50-day moving average)
• Resistance: 5,200 (recent highs), 5,300 (all-time high zone)
The S&P 500 recently tested its 50-day moving average, a critical indicator of short-term market sentiment. If selling pressure intensifies, a break below this level could lead to a deeper pullback toward 4,800.
Momentum Indicators
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering near 45, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Shows a bearish crossover, suggesting potential downside pressure
• Volume Trends: Increasing on red days, signaling distribution rather than accumulation
The combination of technical weakness and fundamental uncertainty points to a cautious trading environment in the coming weeks.
Sector Impact: Winners & Losers
Winners
✔ Domestic Industrials & Manufacturing – Companies benefiting from protectionist policies may see increased demand.
✔ Defense & Aerospace – Historically resilient during geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
✔ Commodity Producers – Rising inflation could lift materials and energy stocks.
Losers
❌ Technology & Semiconductors – Supply chain disruptions and higher import costs could weigh on margins.
❌ Automotive Industry – Higher tariffs on imported vehicles could hurt both manufacturers and consumers.
❌ Retail & Consumer Goods – Increased costs may be passed on to consumers, dampening demand.
Investor Playbook: Navigating the Uncertainty
Short-Term Strategies
• Hedge with Volatility Plays: The VIX has been ticking higher, making it an attractive hedge against market swings.
• Watch Key Support Levels: A break below 4,850 on the S&P 500 could signal further downside, while a bounce from current levels may present a short-term buying opportunity.
• Sector Rotation: Shift focus to industries that historically perform well during protectionist policies, such as domestic manufacturing and commodities.
Long-Term Outlook
While the market is reacting negatively to tariff announcements, historical data suggests that initial sell-offs can eventually lead to stabilization as businesses adjust. However, if tariffs escalate into a full-scale trade war, expect prolonged market turbulence similar to the 2018 tariff battle with China.
Final Thoughts
The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture. If trade tensions escalate, expect increased volatility and further downside pressure. However, if negotiations ease concerns, markets could stabilize and resume their upward trajectory.
For now, traders should proceed with caution, keep an eye on technical indicators, and be prepared for potential market shocks. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is just a short-term correction or the beginning of a broader market shift.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Stock prices are subject to market risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hidden bearish divergenceRight now the price is under pressure of a strong 1d hidden bearish divergence. I believe that breaking 5700 level is only possible after making a 1d regular bullish divergence. I.e. the price should make a fake 5500 level break.
PRESIDENT'S MOVES MAY REACH HARSH REACTIONS The Awesome indicator is giving a sell signal. The American stock market does not give us confidence these days. The 100-year harsh customs duties announced by President Trump say that a sharp fluctuation awaits us. Support and resistance levels should be followed.
We will continue to monitor the chart!
S&P 500 Short Setup – Key Resistance in Focus!🔥 I’m watching this critical resistance zone on the S&P 500 (US500)! A rejection at this level could spark strong bearish momentum. A clear reaction at resistance is key for confirmation.
📍Entry: 5,726.50 USD – just below the key resistance, but only after rejection is confirmed
🎯Targets:
TP1: 5,645.00 USD
TP2: 5,610.00 USD
TP3: 5,585.00 USD
⛔Stop-Loss: 5,768.00 USD
⚡ Patience is crucial, waiting for confirmation reduces risk and boosts accuracy! Would you take this trade? Let me know below! 👇
2/4/25 - Gap down, traders will see strength of FT selling
The market closed as a bull bar in its upper half with prominent tails above and below.
Yesterday, we said traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying. If they could, the market may trade a little higher towards the Mar 25 high area.
The market looks like it will open almost 1% lower today.
The bulls hope that yesterday's low will act as support.
They hope to get a second leg sideways to up to retest yesterday's high, even if it only forms a lower high.
They want the market to trade up strongly, similar to the March 31 gap down.
The bears see the last 2 days simply as a pullback.
They want a retest of the March 13 low and a strong breakout below.
How the market closes today will tell us a lot moving forward.
Trump will talk later in the day.
Wall Street vs GoldZilla. The End of 'Irrational Exuberance' Era"Irrational exuberance" is the phrase used by the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, Alan Greenspan, in a speech given at the American Enterprise Institute during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. The phrase was interpreted as a warning that the stock market might be overvalued.
Origin
Greenspan's comment was made during a televised speech on December 5, 1996 (emphasis added in excerpt)
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?
Greenspan wrote in his 2008 book that the phrase occurred to him in the bathtub while he was writing a speech.
The irony of the phrase and its aftermath lies in Greenspan's widely held reputation as the most artful practitioner of Fedspeak, often known as Greenspeak, in the modern televised era. The speech coincided with the rise of dedicated financial TV channels around the world that would broadcast his comments live, such as CNBC. Greenspan's idea was to obfuscate his true opinion in long complex sentences with obscure words so as to intentionally mute any strong market response.
The phrase was also used by Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, who was reportedly Greenspan's source for the phrase. Shiller used it as the title of his book, Irrational Exuberance, first published in 2000, where Shiller states:
Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases, and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly by envy of others' successes and partly through a gamblers' excitement.
The main technical graph represents a value of S&P500 Index in Gold troy ounces (current value 1.81 at time of writing this article), indicates that effusive Bull stock market goes collapsing.
--
Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
#SPX - 2 Apr#SPX pulled back nicely to PZ yesterday before rallying 70 points, going back to resistance zone.
Overall, price action looks toppish. Could see a move down to 5525/55 but will be looking for a turn at that level for a long. If level does not hold, next strong support below is at 5400.
Today is Tariff day. Trade safe.
March Was Boring. April Could BiteMarch Was Boring. April Could Bite | SPX Analysis 02 April 2025
At the risk of sounding like a scratched CD (or whatever the Spotify kids call repetition), yes – I’m still bearish.
Some might say I’m stubborn.
I say I just know a pattern when I see one.
And while March was about as exciting as watching paint dry in slow motion on a frozen chart... April's already teased a shift. Tuesday’s 0-DTE win added a bit of grease to the gears – finally. Movement. Profit. Action.
But I’m not celebrating yet.
My stance is clear: bullish above 5700, bearish below. Until we break out, I’m scanning for pulse bar setups, especially if price cracks below 5500 – that’s where things get spicy.
And with Friday’s NFP looming on the calendar, the market may be about to wake up and pick a direction.
I know which way I’m leaning.
Bear slippers are still on.
---
Why April Could Be a Whole New Beast
Here’s the rundown:
March = sideways snoozefest.
April = already triggered a 0-DTE win.
My trigger line for flipping bull remains 5700 – it’s the GEX flip, flag failure, and no-go zone.
I’m watching for bearish pulse bars, ideally on:
Morning setups
Under 5500
With volatility in play
Should we crack those levels with strong momentum, I’ll look to compound into existing bear swings, leaning on the mechanical setups that’ve done the job before.
This week’s X-factor?
Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.
Could be a nothing-burger.
Could be the matchstick that lights the whole thing up.
Either way, I’ll be ready.
---
Expert Insights – Don’t Let Boredom Trade for You
One of the most common trader traps?
Forcing trades when the market isn’t doing anything.
Here’s how to avoid it:
✅ Patience is a position.
Waiting for clarity is a valid strategy.
I didn’t force anything through March – and I’m better for it.
✅ Setups still work – just less frequently.
Your system isn’t broken… the market was just asleep.
✅ The pros aren’t hunting trades every day – they’re waiting for the ones worth taking.
That’s how the SPX Income System works – clear triggers, no second-guessing.
---
Fun Fact - April: Historically Strong… Unless March Fails First
The month of April is historically one of the strongest for the S&P 500, averaging gains of 1.5% since 1950.
But guess what?
Most of that strength happens after a strong March.
When March is slow or bearish… April tends to flip the script.
So don’t be surprised if volatility roars back this week – just be ready.
---
Video & Audio Podcast
Coming Soon on main blog...
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
---
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
Links In Bio
Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 5,684.31
1st Support: 5,508.29
1st Resistance: 5,768.80
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Stock Market Dives into Correction? It Happens—Here's What to DoYou wake up, check your portfolio, and see a sea of red. The market’s down, your stocks are taking a nosedive, and CNBC is running apocalyptic headlines about an impending crash. Sounds familiar?
It’s maybe because we’re in (or super close to) a correction right now — the S&P 500 SP:SPX was down 10% from its record high two weeks ago and a lot of people are unsure what to do.
The truth of the matter is, stock market corrections are routine—not as often as the meeting that should’ve been an email, but also not as rare as a winning trade in the Japanese yen ( widow maker is real, yo ).
And, most importantly, they’re usually not as catastrophic as they feel in the moment.
So, before you hit the panic button (or worse, start revenge trading to “win it all back”), let’s talk about what’s shaking the market right now and how to navigate corrections like a pro.
🤔 First Things First: What’s a Correction?
A stock market correction is a drop of 10% or more from a recent high. It’s not a crash, it’s not the end of capitalism, and it’s definitely not a sign that you should liquidate your entire portfolio and move to a remote cabin in the woods.
Corrections happen regularly, typically once every year or two. They’re a natural part of market cycles, shaking out excessive speculation and resetting valuations to more reasonable levels.
For the record, a drop of 20% is considered a bear market.
🤝 Why the Market’s Getting Jittery
Markets don’t move in straight lines, and sometimes they hit turbulence. Lately, two big themes have been dominating headlines:
Trump’s Hard-Line Tariffs Hit Hard (And Markets Are Nervous About It)
If there’s anything Trump knows how to do is say things online or on-site and move markets. And his hostile and straight up combatant approach to handling international relations has sent traders scrambling to offload risk.
With hiked tariffs on China, Europe, and Mexico and Canada, businesses are bracing for severe supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and tighter margins. When tariffs go up, corporate earnings tend to go down—and the market doesn’t like that math.
Inflation Just Won’t Quit
The Federal Reserve spent most of the last two years trying to tame inflation, and just when it seemed like things were cooling off, it’s creeping back up. The latest readout of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed prices ticked up more than expected at 2.8% in February.
Higher inflation means the Fed might keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected, making borrowing more expensive and slowing down growth. Every new inflation release has investors guessing: Will the Fed cut rates, hold steady, or—worst case—hike again?
Between trade wars and stubborn inflation, uncertainty is running high, and that dynamics breeds volatility. But a correction doesn’t mean the market is broken—it just means sentiment has shifted.
⚠️ How NOT to React (aka: Rookie Mistakes to Avoid)
When corrections hit, bad decision-making is at an all-time high. Here’s what not to do:
Panic selling – Selling at the bottom is a classic rookie move. If you weren’t planning to sell at the highs, why dump everything when it’s down?
Trying to time the exact bottom – Good luck. Nobody, not even Warren Buffett, can catch the bottom (not that he’s trying). If you’re waiting for the “perfect” dip, you’ll likely miss the rebound.
Going all-in on one asset – Thinking of putting everything into one stock or crypto because it’s “cheap” now? Please don’t. Diversification exists for a reason .
Getting glued to financial news – Watching every market update during a correction is like doom-scrolling Google after a mild headache—you’ll only freak yourself out more.
Now that we’ve covered what not to do, let’s focus on the smart plays.
💪 So, What Should You Do?
If you want to come out of a correction with your sanity (and portfolio) intact, here’s your game plan:
1️⃣ Zoom Out—Corrections Are Temporary
The market moves in cycles, and corrections are just part of the game. Historically, corrections last a few months, while bull markets last years. If you’re investing for the long term, a correction is a blip on the chart, not an extinction event.
2️⃣ Review Your Portfolio Like a Hedge Fund Manager
Corrections are a great excuse to audit your holdings. Ask yourself:
Is this stock/ETF/index still worth holding?
Has anything fundamentally changed, or is this just temporary market noise?
Do I have too much exposure to one sector?
Think of it as spring cleaning for your investments. It's also an opportunity to make some good use of the handy Stock Screener or Stock Heatmap to spot the best (and worst) performers. If something was a FOMO buy and doesn’t belong in your portfolio, consider trimming it.
3️⃣ Buy Selectively, Not Blindly
Corrections create opportunities, but that doesn’t mean you should just throw money at every stock that’s down. Some companies deserve their declines ( looking at you, Nikola )—others are just collateral damage in a broader selloff.
Look for quality companies with strong earnings, manageable debt, and real growth potential. If they were solid before the correction, they’ll likely recover faster than the overhyped names.
Example: Remember when Amazon stock NASDAQ:AMZN tanked 90% in 2000, the dot-com bubble? No, because you were too busy being 2 years old instead of loading up on Jeff Bezos’s dream. And look where the guy’s now.
4️⃣ Do Some Good Old DCA
Instead of dumping all your cash into the market at once, use dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buying in small increments at regular intervals helps you avoid the stress of trying to time the bottom. If prices drop further, you can buy more at an even better price.
5️⃣ Keep Emotions in Check
Corrections test your patience and discipline. The best investors don’t let fear dictate their strategy. If you’re getting emotional about your trades, step away from the screen and take a breath. The market will be there when you come back.
👍 The Market Always Bounces Back—Eventually
Every correction feels like the worst one while it’s happening. But let’s look at history:
The S&P 500 has faced 30+ corrections since 1950. It survived them all.
The average correction lasts four months before a recovery begins.
After a correction, markets typically rally higher within a year.
Unless you believe the global economy is permanently broken (hint: not yet, at least), every major downturn has eventually turned into a new bull run.
🦸♂ Final Thought: Be the Hero, Not the Victim
Market corrections separate the professionals from the wannabes. The people who panic and sell at the bottom? They usually regret it. The ones who keep a level head, stick to their strategy, and take advantage of good opportunities? They come out stronger.
And finally, if you need to take away one thing it’s this: Corrections aren’t the enemy. They’re the price of admission for long-term gains.
👉 Let’s hear it from you!
How do you handle corrections, what’s your strategy when the market is in a downturn and what’s in your portfolio then? Share your experience in the comment section!
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [3]Blue parallel channel held perfectly while many were bearish!
Now has a date with the top rail, maybe at 2.618 intersection who knows...
Expanding megaphone (green) had false breakdown, if it breaks back in and upwards = huge bullish move.
So much room on the RSI to run with huge positive divergence.
Not financial advice.
Amazes me how long these patterns take to form, for them to be concrete and actionable. Hopefully this series is the last one I post. Realistically just waiting for this low to be set. Think this could be it.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August.
The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March.
Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
