SUNCAT Trade Plan (09/12/24)Hello! This is my first time sharing ideas, hope it helps!
Assumptions:
1. Bullish market into q1 2025.
2. Awareness of memecoin and risk management.
3. Intended for spot holding/trade.
4. Awareness of broader market and such.
Invalidation:
1. Break of MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL: Heavy sell pressure >$0.006-$0.007, tested multiple times in D1. Watch for breakout/fakeout.
SSL: D1 EQ zone ($0.00465-$0.0049) and H2-H4 SSL OTE ($0.0040-$0.0042). Potential for deeper sweep/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks:
Bullish OB: Anything below $0.0049 into lowest zone of $0.0027-$0.0034 (PWL/PML) without invalidating MS, align with a swing low.
Bearish OB: $0.0061-$0.0062 (PMH), likely to act as resistance unless volume and momentum break through convincingly.
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: $0.004-$0.0045.
D1: $0.0035-$0.004.
Might be visited, might be not.
d. Market Structure:
LTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.007 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH = 0.007-0.00691
Observed EQL = ~0.003
Potential EQL = ~0.004-0.0045.
Failed to break EQL/EQH would result in prolonged ping-pong.
2. Candle Pattern:
Not my forte, but watch for hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation e.q. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib method should follow the primary price setting whether log price or not.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal.
5. Price Action Simulations & Market Phases (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
Current: MS resembles Phase C testing (HH-HL testing, tests the supply/demand balance, spring/shakeout).
Next: Wyckoff Phase D and Phase E.
Target Phase D: $0.007-$0.0085 post $0.007 breakout, as it corresponds to breaking local highs and entering the markup phase, see PA LL at 1 Sep 24 - 23 Sep 24.
Target Phase E: $0.012-$0.015, sustained markup and distribution into higher levels. Coincides with historical resistance, fib extensions, and next liquidity zones.
Retracement Reentry Zone (Post-Markup):
Somewhere midpoint (EQ) of Phase D/E markup. Watch for SOS, BU/LPS formation in Phase D.
b. Elliott Wave:
Wave 1 target: completed ($0.0027-$0.007), currently forming retracement Wave 2.
Wave 3 target: $0.0085-$0.012 based on Fib extensions (161.8%-2.618% fib wave 1).
Conservative Wave 3: $0.0085-$0.009. Confluences with Phase D Wyckoff.
Optimistic Wave 3: $0.012-$0.013. Confluences with Phase E Wyckoff.
Wave 4 target: typically retraces 38.2%-50% of Wave 3. So watch the completion of wave 3 peak signaled by multiple rejections at resistance.
Reentry after Wave 4: $0.007-$0.0085, matching Wyckoff Phase E retracement.
Watch formations of HL and volume during this phase.
Wave 5 target: usually extends to 127.2%-161.8% fib of Wave 4 retracement or 361.8% extension of Wave 1. Keep watch of Wave 4 bottom. Could easily breach $0.015 zone (~15 mil MCap) into $0.03 (~30 mil MCap) or >100 mil MCap.
Summary of Targets & Reentries:
Phase D Target: $0.007-$0.0085.
Phase E Target: $0.012-$0.015.
Wave 3 Target: $0.0085-$0.013.
Wave 4 Reentry: $0.007-$0.0085.
Wave 5 Target: $0.015-$0.03.
Marked in the chart. Anything below $0.006 (6 mil MCap) is a good buy zone for medium-long term.
This SUNCAT PA has high confluence between Wyckoff and Elliott theories. Good coin to hold/trade.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
