APC trade ideas
The Overlooked Indicator Outstanding SharesThe Overlooked Indicator: How Changes in Outstanding Shares Impact Long-Term Investments
When evaluating a company for long-term investment, most investors focus on familiar metrics such as revenue growth, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. However, one crucial indicator often overlooked or misunderstood is the change in a company's outstanding shares over time. This variable plays a significant role in determining the market capitalization and, ultimately, the shareholder's stake in the company.
Understanding Outstanding Shares and Market Capitalization
Outstanding shares represent the total number of shares a company has issued and are held by all shareholders, including institutional investors, retail investors, and insiders. These shares are a key component in calculating a company’s market capitalization, which is simply:
Market Capitalization
=
Outstanding Shares
×
Share Price
Market Capitalization=Outstanding Shares×Share Price
While market capitalization is widely referenced, changes in outstanding shares are often neglected, even though they can significantly influence the per-share value of a company.
Issuing and Repurchasing Shares: A Tale of Two Strategies
Companies can increase or decrease the number of outstanding shares for various reasons:
Issuing New Shares: When companies issue additional shares, often to raise capital or fund growth initiatives, they dilute existing shareholders' ownership. This dilution can have a material impact on the value of each share, as the same company’s equity is now spread over a larger number of shares.
Share Buybacks: Conversely, when companies repurchase their own shares, they reduce the number of outstanding shares, effectively concentrating ownership among the remaining shareholders. This often boosts metrics like earnings per share (EPS), making the company appear more attractive to investors.
Case Study: Microsoft and MicroStrategy
To illustrate the impact of changes in outstanding shares, let’s examine two contrasting examples: Microsoft (MSFT) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Microsoft (MSFT): In 2020, Microsoft had 17.8 billion outstanding shares. By 2024, this number had been reduced to 15.2 billion—a 15% reduction. This significant buyback program demonstrates Microsoft’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. Reducing outstanding shares enhances per-share metrics and can indicate confidence in the company’s financial health and future.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): In stark contrast, MicroStrategy increased its outstanding shares from 100 million in 2020 to 197.2 million in 2024—a staggering 97% increase. This massive share issuance reflects a dilution of shareholder value. While the additional capital raised might have been used to fund growth or acquisitions, existing shareholders now own a smaller percentage of the company.
The accompanying charts vividly illustrate these trends, highlighting how these strategies can dramatically alter the ownership landscape over time.
Why This Matters for Long-Term Investors
As a long-term investor, it’s essential to look beyond surface-level metrics and consider how changes in outstanding shares affect your investment. For example:
Dilution Risk: A company that frequently issues new shares may struggle to generate sufficient internal capital, signaling potential financial challenges or aggressive expansion strategies that could dilute shareholder value.
Share Buybacks: While buybacks can enhance per-share metrics, they are not inherently positive. Investors should ensure the buybacks are funded by strong free cash flow rather than debt, which could jeopardize the company’s financial stability.
Impact on Valuation: Adjusting for changes in outstanding shares provides a more accurate picture of a company’s valuation and its ability to generate returns for shareholders.
Conclusion
Changes in outstanding shares are a critical but often overlooked factor in evaluating a company’s long-term potential. By understanding the implications of share issuance and buybacks, investors can make more informed decisions and avoid common pitfalls in their investment journey.
The examples of Microsoft and MicroStrategy serve as a reminder that not all changes in outstanding shares are created equal. For long-term investors, keeping an eye on this overlooked indicator can be the difference between a growing stake in a thriving company and an increasingly diluted piece of the pie.
Apple - Wait for the bite!The price looks like a lion in a cage, breaking above or below the wedge will lead to significant changes. For now, sit back and relax, Trump will show the path!
AAPLForex trading involves higher leverage (up to 50:1) and 24/5 market access, focusing on currency pair movements affected by economic data, interest rates, and geopolitical events - the key risk is that high leverage can quickly amplify losses, plus overnight positions face swap fees and gap risks during major news. Stock trading typically offers lower leverage (2:1 to 4:1), operates during exchange hours, and focuses on company fundamentals, earnings, and broader market sentiment - main risks include earnings surprises, market volatility, and lower liquidity in individual stocks compared to major forex pairs, while key advantages include better transparency through public financial reports and generally lower spreads than exotic forex pairs.
$AAPL NASDAQ:AAPL consolidating. Forming huge flag. Could break either side. Careful as AAPL is reluctant move along with the markets lately. But when it moves, it moves big!!!.
$AAPL Trade idea.AAPL couldn't break 228 level & came down all the way to 222 level and bounced. Good consolidation today. Looking for break above & if continued to push, it should be bullish above 228 level. Caution: AAPL is trading weaker as compared to the markets. I would be very careful on the upside move.
AAPL: Consolidation Phase with Potential Breakout Opportunities📉 Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
$228.66: This is the most recent high on the 1-hour chart, acting as a significant resistance level. A breakout above this could indicate bullish momentum, but current price action suggests resistance may hold.
$224.09 - $224.06: The ask and bid levels near the current price serve as immediate resistance. A failure to break above these levels would confirm near-term bearish bias.
Support Levels:
$222.00: A key support level in the current range. If price breaks below this level, it could trigger a bearish move.
$221.10: The lowest support level in the recent trading range. A breakdown here may lead to further downside, potentially toward $220.
🔄 Indicators
9 EMA and 21 EMA:
The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are currently close together, indicating a lack of momentum in either direction.
If the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA, it could signal a short-term bullish shift, while a cross below would support a bearish scenario.
MACD:
The MACD shows slight bearish momentum, with red bars indicating selling pressure. A continuation of this pattern could confirm a bearish breakdown, especially if support levels are breached.
Volume:
Volume has been low during this consolidation, which often precedes a breakout or breakdown. Watch for a volume spike to confirm the direction of any move.
🛠 Trade Setup
Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below $222.00, accompanied by an increase in volume and potentially a 9 EMA cross below the 21 EMA, could signal a bearish move. The target would be around $220, with further downside possible if selling pressure intensifies.
Bullish Scenario:
Although less likely based on current indicators, a breakout above $228.66 with strong volume could signal a bullish reversal. A close above this level would target the next resistance zone near $230.
⚠️ Risk Management
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above $224.09 for bearish trades, while bullish entries should consider a stop below $222.00.
Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing in line with risk tolerance, as volatility may increase if price breaks out of this range.
📚 Key Takeaways
AAPL is consolidating with a bearish bias, given recent lower highs and selling pressure on the MACD.
Key levels to watch are $222.00 for support and $228.66 for resistance.
Volume confirmation will be crucial for validating any breakout or breakdown.
💬 Conclusion
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is in a neutral-to-bearish consolidation phase on the 1-hour chart. With limited momentum and key resistance at $228.66, the stock appears vulnerable to a breakdown, especially if it fails to hold support at $222.00. Watch the volume spike and EMA crossover for entry signals.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
APPLE Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
APPLE looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 227.20 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 224.44
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AAPL Technical Analysis: Retracement or Reversal Ahead? Price Action Overview: On the 1-hour chart, AAPL has pulled back from the recent highs near $229, encountering resistance and currently trading at around $223.50. There’s been a clear double-top formation near the $229 level, followed by a bearish divergence on the MACD, signaling potential weakness.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
Primary Resistance: $228.68 (previous high level, tested twice)
Secondary Resistance: $226 (near recent rejection zone)
Support:
Primary Support: $221.22 (key horizontal support; previous consolidation area)
Secondary Support: $219.71 (critical level; a break below could indicate further downside)
Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA):
The price is currently below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish sentiment. If AAPL fails to reclaim this moving average, it could serve as dynamic resistance.
MACD:
The MACD has crossed below the signal line, showing increasing bearish momentum. However, the histogram is narrowing, suggesting a potential slowdown in selling pressure.
Volume:
Volume shows increased activity during the sell-off, which aligns with the bearish movement. The next move should be confirmed by volume continuation or divergence.
Trade Suggestion:
Bullish Scenario:
If AAPL can reclaim $226 and hold above this level, look for a retest of $228.68. A breakout above $229 could signal a new bullish leg up, with targets at $230-$232.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold the $221.22 support could lead to a retest of $219.71. If this level breaks, expect a move towards $216, where the next strong support lies.
💬 Be cautious of a potential fake breakout if volume doesn’t confirm the move above $226.
Use tight stops around these key levels to protect capital, as volatility may increase with broader market movements.
🔍 Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
Apple in ascending triangle, up to 280$ or down to 200$?Apple had a great move up from 165$ to 237$ in only 3 month, but since then price has been oscillating between 200$ and 237$, this oscillation seem to form an ascending triangle.
Since the stock has been moving up in long and short term, the probability that this triangle breaks out to the upside is higher than breaking out to the down side.
Currently the price is sitting at lower level of this triangle and if the pattern holds, we should see the price move up to 237$ in short term. If the price breaks out from there to the upside, then we will be looking at the price target of 280$. On the other hand, if the price breaks out to the down side, the price target is at 200$ where we have a-formerly resistance-support line.
We should also notice that after the April-July bull run we have already seen a retracement to 0.5 level, and the current movement of the price could be seen as the uptrend after the retracement.
Trade Alert: Apple (AAPL) - Long PositionI’m initiating a long position on NASDAQ:AAPL with a 64% probability of success based on over 30 data-driven metrics supporting this direction. Our risk-to-reward ratio (RR) is solid at 2.52, with the potential for a 5% gain if we hold past the first TP, potentially scaling to a 6RR if the second TP is hit.
Key Levels:
1st TP: 228.09
2nd TP: 234.84
Trade Strategy:
Primary Plan: Target the first TP at 228.09, then take 1.52 units off and hold the remaining position to ride for the higher profit at the second TP.
Alternative: If you’re willing to take on more risk, you could target the second TP at 234.84 for a potential 6RR.
Why this setup?
64% probability of success based on strong data-driven analysis
2.52 RR with a potential 5% gain and a max upside of 6RR
Partial profit-taking at 1st TP (228.09) is recommended to manage risk while leaving some position open for higher returns.
Conclusion: I recommend taking profits at 228.09, then holding a portion to target 234.84 for a 6RR. This trade has a solid risk/reward profile, and if the data holds, we could see strong upside from here!
APPLE TRADING Opportunity SELLAPPLE looks like it will make a good move, and here are the detail
The market is trading on 227.20 pivot level .
Goal 224.44
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - AAPL ShortAAPL has been trending down for a few weeks now and broke below critical trendline support. Going for a retest now, I expect a failure here. Tight stop right above the trendline, final target is around $216.
15 bets better than betting on Trump/Harris victory!If you think markets will move significantly after the Election result read this article!
Let me help analyze this from a trading/investing perspective.
The key differences between these approaches:
1. Strangle Options Strategy:
- Has defined risk (maximum loss is premium paid)
- Based on measurable market movements
- Regulated through established financial markets
- Success depends on significant price movement in either direction
- Multiple exit opportunities before expiration
- Average expected profits shown in the table range from 53-320%
2. Election Markets:
- Binary outcome
- Current pricing suggests narrower potential returns
- Less liquidity than major stock options
- Single outcome date
- Not regulated in the same way as securities markets
I'd encourage focusing on the following:
1. Your risk tolerance
2. Your expertise in the chosen market
3. The regulatory framework you're comfortable operating within
4. Your ability to actively manage positions
5. Your overall investment strategy and goals
AAPL: Reacting Above a Critical Support Level (D&W Charts).Daily Chart (Left)
ATH Resistance: The daily chart indicates a potential double top pattern near the all-time high (ATH) at around $237.23, signaling a possible resistance zone that could lead to a bearish reversal if not breached in the next few weeks.
Mid-Term Support: The $221.33 level is acting as a mid-term support. A break below this level could imply further downside potential reversing the long-term trend, while a hold above could suggest consolidation or a reversal attempt to retest the ATH again.
Weekly Chart (Right)
Sideways Movement with Weekly EMA Support: The weekly chart shows a range-bound movement with $237.23 acting as a key resistance. The 21-week EMA is supporting the price, suggesting that buyers may still have interest at current levels. This EMA ccoicindes with the $221 support observed on the daily chart, reinforcing its importance.
Consolidation Phase: The stock is in a consolidation phase just below its ATH, which could be indicative of a buildup before a breakout.
Trading Implications:
AAPL's chart shows signs of potential reversal to the ATH, as it remains supported by mid-term and weekly EMA support levels, and we see a bullish reaction in this area. However, if it loses the $221, along with the 21-week EMA, i'll reject the bullish thesis.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Apple Report Drives Bearish Sentiment for AAPL StockApple Report Drives Bearish Sentiment for AAPL Stock
Apple, the largest U.S. market-cap company, released its Q3 earnings report on October 31:
→ Earnings per share (EPS): Actual = $0.97, Expected = $1.60
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $94.9 billion, Expected = $94.5 billion
The nearly 40% miss on EPS likely disappointed investors, contributing to bearish pressure. As seen in AAPL’s chart, prices dropped below $220 — a level last seen in early September.
Could the decline deepen? Today’s technical analysis of AAPL presents a few arguments for a bearish outlook:
→ In 2023-2024, the stock moved within a broad range between $167 and $200. When the bullish breakout of this range occurred in June 2024, $233 became a potential target, showing signs of resistance. The resistance around $233 is also reinforced by the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel (in blue).
→ Trendline slopes have been gradually flattening (in purple), a sign of waning buying momentum.
This weakening demand near $233 may lead to further bearish attempts to push AAPL below $220 toward the median of its long-term rising channel.
Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic. According to TipRanks:
→ 23 of 34 analysts recommend buying AAPL;
→ The average 12-month price target is $245.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$AAPL trade ideaNASDAQ:AAPL forming nice wedge with higher lows and lower highs. could break and work either side IMO.
AAPL's Next Move: Bearish Momentum or Potential Reversal? Nov. 6Current Trend & Price Action
From the hourly chart, AAPL shows a downtrend, indicated by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The stock is consolidating near the lower boundary, hinting at possible support around $220, a level that could act as a pivot for either a reversal or further downside.
Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $223.85, marked by recent highs.
Key Resistance Zone: $234 - $236. Breaking above this zone could suggest bullish momentum.
Immediate Support: $220, a crucial psychological and technical level.
Critical Support Zone: $218 - $219. A break below this area could accelerate selling pressure.
Indicators
Moving Averages (15 EMA and 161 EMA): AAPL remains below both EMAs, signaling bearish sentiment. The EMAs serve as dynamic resistance, with the stock attempting but failing to close above them recently.
MACD: Shows potential for a bullish crossover but remains in bearish territory. Watch for a crossover confirmation, which could indicate a short-term bounce if volume supports it.
Trading Strategy & Entry/Exit Points
Bounce Play: If AAPL holds above $220, a possible entry for a short-term reversal play could be considered. Look for entries near $220 with a target around $223.85 and a stop below $218.
Breakdown Play: If AAPL falls below $220 with strong volume, consider a short position targeting $218 and lower levels if momentum persists.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
What If Smart Money Shifts from Traditional Companies to Crypto?This idea explores the potential scenario where smart money moves from traditional top 100 Nasdaq companies to the crypto space. As Nasdaq reaches its peak and becomes less attractive, blockchain companies offer more reasonable valuations, and the crypto market continues to open up, providing new opportunities. This shift could drive substantial growth in the blockchain and crypto sectors as traditional finance investors look for higher returns in emerging technologies.
AAPL bearish harmonics, target 186Several Bearish harmonics active for AAPL should drive price downward to 186. See the measured Bearish ABCD Ext, Bearish Dragon XD and Bearish ABCD shown in this chart.
Apple key resistance levels (Currently at 221.79)Apple share key resistance levels are
1. 218.9
2. 221.7
3. 226.35
4. 229.9 (Very Important level)
5. 237.37
6. 241.07
Is This the Final Chapter in Buffett's Tech Journey?Warren Buffett’s once unshakeable partnership with Apple seems to be reaching a critical juncture, leaving market watchers with more questions than answers. For years, Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway embraced Apple, with Buffett even calling it “the greatest trade of all time.” Yet, with Berkshire’s recent decision to reduce its stake by a staggering 67%, the dynamic is shifting. While initial statements attributed the sales to tax planning, the sheer scale hints at a deeper strategy. This raises the question: is this a calculated portfolio rebalancing or the beginning of a more profound shift in Buffett’s investment philosophy?
The timing of these sales isn’t random. Apple now faces several hurdles, from slower growth projections in a competitive smartphone market to increasing regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe. The conglomerate’s move coincides with Apple's potential weaknesses, suggesting Berkshire is not immune to the broader industry concerns, such as competition in China and challenges in artificial intelligence—a field where Apple appears to be lagging.
Interestingly, some experts speculate that the recent passing of Charlie Munger may have influenced Buffett’s decision. Munger, who historically favored Apple, played a pivotal role in Berkshire’s tech investments, balancing Buffett’s more cautious stance on technology. Now, Berkshire’s shift could signal a strategic return to its foundational values, preferring stability over tech’s unpredictable currents.
As Berkshire Hathaway maneuvers through these adjustments, Apple remains its largest equity holding, hinting that Buffett hasn’t fully turned his back on the tech giant. But with record cash reserves and a keen eye on emerging opportunities, the next steps Berkshire takes could redefine not just its portfolio but perhaps even broader investment trends in the years to come.
Apple Inc (AAPL)Calls above 223.39
Puts below 221.78
A wedge pattern can signal either bullish or bearish price reversals.
The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal from either side. This strategy is based on price action and the volume of a candle upon breakout.
