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TESLA INC. DL -,001TT

TESLA INC. DL -,001

266.25EURD
+1.90+0.72%
As of today at 17:26 GMT
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Short term TSLA Price best guess road mapattached a TSLA trading road map; It will be fun to see if this is how things play out.short term: 1st try arrow now starting Mon small pullback,  start up Tuesday  peak by May 2? Then pullback  Starting May 2-3 Mid Mayto 288 chop for a week then back up  ( if the market tanks to new lows then the red alternate arrow is more likely as all stocks strong and weak  are sold.)    If TSLA holds 288 area then back up By July1 into about to early July (2nd try arrow)If iTSLA can do this and broad market isn't a mess then 400 will be reached in months ahead
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by mukCL
TSLAThe Future of Tesla Stocks: 2025 Outlook Current Situation As of late April 2025, Tesla (TSLA) is trading at approximately $284.95, with notable volatility Bullish scenarios: Some forecasts see TSLA reaching $360 or even as high as $800.70 by year-end, especially if Tesla executes well on new products and technology. Bearish scenarios: More cautious analysts, such as those at Wells Fargo, warn of a possible drop toward $130 if deliveries and margins disappoint, citing intense competition and slowing demand. Most forecasts for 2025 fall between $284 and $800, highlighting high uncertainty and volatility in the stock’s outlook. Key Drivers for Tesla’s Stock Performance 1. Vehicle Deliveries and Production Tesla is expected to deliver between 1.95 million and 2.5 million vehicles in 2025, with growth driven by new models like the Cybertruck and more affordable vehicles. Any production setbacks or failure to meet targets could pressure the stock. 2. Technological Innovation Success in rolling out Full Self-Driving (FSD) features and the anticipated Robotaxi service could be transformative, potentially boosting profit margins and investor sentiment. However, delays or regulatory hurdles could dampen optimism. 3. Competition and Market Share Tesla faces growing competition from legacy automakers and new EV entrants, especially in China and Europe. Its EV market share has slipped below 50% in key regions, raising concerns about sustaining growth. 4. Financial Performance Revenue is projected to grow by 17.5% to $117.2 billion in 2025, with EPS also expected to rise. Margins are under pressure due to price cuts and rising costs, a key risk factor. 5. External and Market Risks Macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates and consumer demand, will influence stock performance. CEO Elon Musk’s leadership and public perception remain influential but can also be a source of volatility. Long-Term Potential: Despite short-term risks, many analysts consider Tesla a strong long-term play due to its innovation and brand strength. Conclusion The future of Tesla stock in 2025 is highly uncertain, with forecasts ranging from significant gains to steep declines. Key factors include delivery growth, technological breakthroughs, margin management, and competitive pressures. While the long-term outlook remains positive for many analysts, short-term risks and volatility should not be underestimated. Investors should monitor Tesla’s execution on new products, regulatory developments, and broader market trends for directional cues.
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by Shavyfxhub
TESLA Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042525Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 260/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
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by fibonacci6180
$TSLA : The road to 400 $In this space we have discussed about NASDAQ:TSLA multiple times. In one of our very recent blogs on 21 April 2025, we flipped bullish for the first time and presented a case to accumulate NASDAQ:TSLA between 214 $ – 250 $. Congrats to everyone who did it. On Friday’s close the stock is above 250 $ and its currently sitting above its 20-Day and 50-Day SMA. This can be taken as a first bullish sign and maybe the start of a primary reversal trend towards up. After some turbulent time and more than a 50% dip the stock is holding up very well. As Elon will be back on the helm of the NASDAQ:TSLA we can expect some more macro tailwind for the stock itself. In the daily chart below, we see that the RSI chart has flipped bullish and on the Fib retracement levels we are well above the 0.382 Fib retracement levels which is at 272 $. The next stop as per the chart is 310 $ @ 0.5 Fib level. My assessment is that once the momentum is flipped bullish the stock can end above 400 $ once this is all said and done. Verdict: Go Long $TSLA. 400 $ see you there $TSLA.
NLong
by RabishankarBiswal
Breaking: Tesla Up 6% In Premarket Albeit Q1 Profit Drops 71%Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock surged 6% in early premarket trading on Wednesday amidst missing expectation, Q1 profit drops 71%. Tesla investors breathed a sigh of relief after CEO Elon Musk said he would refocus his attention on the electric automaker, but that promise did not entirely dispel worries that his right-wing shift had irrevocably damaged the company's image. The automaker's shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ), rose about 6.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday after Musk said he would cut back, opens new tab his work for U.S. President Donald Trump to a day or two per week from sometime next month after the automaker posted a 71% slump in net income and a sharp drop in automotive revenue. Since hitting a record high in December, Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) have lost about half its value reducing its market capitalization by more than $500 billion, largely on concerns that brand damage could hurt sales for a second straight year. Tesla said it will a review of its full-year delivery forecast amid shifting global trade policies in the second quarter earnings update, which is expected in July. While Tesla is less likely to be affected by global tariffs than legacy automakers, it still expects an outsized impact on the fast-growing energy storage business that uses battery cells from China. Technical Outlook As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:TSLA shares are up 6.5% in premarket trading. The asset is undergoing a bullish reversal pattern after bouncing off from the critical support point of $218. TSLA shares are aiming for a 118% surge should the asset break the key Fibonacci levels highlighted on the chart. With the last trading session's RSI at 46, NASDAQ:TSLA is well primed for a bullish campaign since consolidating late December, 2024 losing almost 56% of value, TSLA shares are looking to capitalize on that.
NLong
by DEXWireNews
Either a triangle start forming or a flat just completed. $TSLAThe Friday bounce was huge and expected, but be really cautious as its very a typical Tesla move. At this point, i believe the triangle to be complete in next 2-3weeks(likely), or a flat just complete(also acceptable though i'm leaning less toward this scenario). And, I bought puts yesterday, let's see what this plays out. Just sharing my honest thought here, feel free to challenge my view and post opposing counts, always willing to learn new knowledge.
NShort
by xixi2025
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗸𝗼𝘄𝗻: Priced for perfectionPriced for perfection in an imperfect market NASDAQ:TSLA nearly hit its 200dma and key resistance area (~288–292) after a roughly 20% post-earnings squeeze, and as long as it stays below that level, it risks retesting the long-term uptrend line that has marked major lows twice since COVID. 𝘛𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘺-𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬: Tesla depends heavily on Chinese-made battery and electronic components now hit by reciprocal U.S. tariffs, while over 60% of global neodymium and dysprosium—vital for its EV motors—are mined and processed only in China, creating a critical bottleneck that could sharply elevate its input costs. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘴. 𝘭𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘺 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯: Q1 price cuts of up to 20% on core models drove Tesla’s auto gross margin to its lowest since 2020, calling into question the sustainability of its >70× forward P/E multiple, which assumes exceptionally high profits from future ventures like robotics and autonomous fleets. $NQ_F NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX TVC:VIX #Stocks #TrumpTariffs 🇺🇸 #ChinaTariffs 🇨🇳
NShort
by KobesyTrades
TSLA TSLA Did break through a resistance line but this amount of price volitlity was unexpected, there is a big resistance line at around 287-288. Price will most likely consolidate or bounce down. Price could breakthrough and bounce back then continue on upwards. I have never seen this before not even with the Covid crash. Someone else probably has but I sure haven’t. I will probably buy the rebound if it breaks through and enter a long position but as of right now unsure. NASDAQ:TSLA
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by alfie_olaison
TSLA, the king of all meme stocksYesterday, Q1 earnings call. Stock misses earnings by 30% on already reduced expectations of 0.38. Had it been earnings expectations from a week before (which was 0.434), it would've missed by around 45%. Still, the stock manages to rebound from mid 220s up to 257 in a single day (around 10%). It's impressive, but still looms a ceiling just up ahead (258-260) which I think is the perfect opportunity to short. Will be invalid if it manages to push up above 267.6 which is the local resistance line and a major historic resistance also. That said. I think the odds are good in shorting around 258-260. Expecting a fall towards low 200s and even towards high 170s.
NShort
by Caprison
1
Tesla Finds Support, 657 Next Easy High & All-Time HighTesla is looking pretty good right now, support has been found. The correction amounted to -55.5%. It started in mid December 2024 and the first low was hit in March 2025. Since March TSLA has been in the process of forming a bottom. The action moved below 0.786 Fib. retracement level in relation to the last bullish wave. The action is back above this level now and this is pretty good. As long as the action happens above the magic blue dashed line, Tesla is good and set to grow. This signal, perfect symmetry, is supported by rising volume. Buy volume is rising massively as TSLA moves into a long-term support zone. (Smart people, smart money and smart traders buy when prices are low —this volume signal reveals the highest buying in years as TSLA hits support.) The most revealing fact from a logical standpoint is the size of the correction, a 55% correction is a lot by any standard. When a market goes through such a strong correction, it tends to reverse and produce next a new move. It moves in waves. It goes up and down, up and down. We are seeing the end of the down-move and this will automatically lead to an up-wave. When the bottom was hit, last month, the action goes flat. Tesla was clearly moving lower but as support was found the bottom stays flat. This is another revealing signal for the logical mind. No longer a downtrend but a consolidation phase, which is part of a transition period. » So the market was bullish and from bullish turned bearish, from bearish it went sideways and from sideways it will grow. This is an easy buy. Thanks a lot for your comment and continued support. Namaste.
NLong
by MasterAnanda
16
Tesla: At a Crossroads – Accumulation or Breakdown?One of the most talked-about stocks right now — Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA . And for good reason. Between the constant media buzz around Elon Musk and the recent surge in vandalism against Tesla vehicles, it’s been getting plenty of attention. But I’m not here to talk politics or headlines — I’m here for the chart. And honestly? It’s looking better than you’d think. Despite all the noise, price has held steady in the $225 to $270 range, showing signs of a sideways accumulation phase — right at the Point of Control (POC) since 2021. That’s a pretty strong area, technically speaking. Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to get clarity: Either we break above $350, which opens up serious upside potential, Or we break down toward the Volume Area Low — specifically the 2024 VAL at $161.18. The real danger zone? Below $138. If price breaks that level, we have to assume that Wave 2 isn’t done yet — even though it was originally considered complete in 2023. Until then, the structure actually looks constructive: we’ve been putting in higher lows and higher highs since 2023, which signals a potential uptrend. How far that uptrend goes is hard to call. But if we break and hold above $325, then a pullback toward $300–$270 could offer a clean entry opportunity. On the flip side, yes — if the market collapses and Wave II is still unfolding, we could be staring at $175, $125, or even as low as $75–$50 in an extreme scenario. And that would be wild for a stock that once touched $485. But that’s why it’s crucial to zoom out. Ask yourself: What do I want from Tesla — long-term conviction or short-term plays? Then build your view. If the macro fits, dial into the lower time frames to find your edge. The setup is building — and it’s looking like Tesla is prepping for a big move. Question is: which direction are you positioned for?
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by stromm
9 Simple Ratios Every Great Investor Uses - Buffett Included!Forget the hype, headlines, or hope. These 9 financial ratios are what real investors actually use to pick winners, but... P/E? ROE? EPS? 🧐 - What are they, or better yet, WHO are they? 🤯 - How high is “too high”? - Is a low number always good, or just a trap? - Do all industries follow the same rules… or is that another myth? Buffett. Greenblatt. Graham. Lynch. They didn’t rely on vibes — they trusted fundamentals After years of relying on charts, I built a 9-point fundamentals checklist to filter stocks faster and smarter. Now I’m sharing it with real-life examples and key insights to help you spot what really makes a stock worth owning: Easy enough for new investors diving into fundamentals Sharp enough to level up seasoned pros Real enough to avoid hype …but the truth is: these numbers did flag companies like Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia before the market gave them credit. ----------------------------------------------------- ✅ Quick Reference Table Scan the table, then dive into the stories… First Pro Tip: Bookmark this. You’ll check these before every stock pick. ----------------------------------------------------- 📊 1. P/E Ratio | Price-to-Earnings What it tells you: How much you pay for each dollar of a company’s profit. Short Example: A P/E of 20 means you pay $20 for $1 of profit. High P/E? Expect big growth or risk overpaying. Strong: Between 15 and 25 Caution: Above 30 (unless fast growth) Industry Averages: - Tech: 25–40 - Utilities: 10–15 - Consumer Staples: 15–20 - Energy: 10–20 - Healthcare: 20–30 Story: In early 2023, NVIDIA’s P/E ratio hovered around 25, near the low end for tech stocks. Investors who saw this as a steal amid the AI boom were rewarded—NVIDIA’s stock made 4x by the end of 2024 as AI chip demand soared. Contrast that with Tesla in Q1 2025, when its P/E spiked above 40 with slowing sales and Tesla’s stock dropped 50% in weeks. Pro tip: A low P/E is not always good. If growth is weak or falling, it's often a trap. Example: A utility company with a P/E of 30 is probably overpriced. A tech stock with 35 might still be fair — if growth justifies it. ----------------------------------------------------- 🧠 2. PEG Ratio | Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth What it tells you: If a high P/E is worth it based on future profit growth. Whether the earnings growth justifies the price. Short Example: A PEG below 1 means you’re getting growth at a fair price. High PEG? You’re overpaying. Strong: Below 1 Caution: Above 2 Industry Averages: - Software: below 1.5 is solid - Consumer Goods: Below 2 is more realistic - Tech: Below 1 - Consumer Staples: Below 1.5 - Healthcare: Below 1.2 - Financials: Below 1.5 - Energy: Below 1.3 Story: In mid-2022, Salesforce’s PEG was 0.8 (P/E 35, forward EPS growth 45%) as cloud demand surged. Investors who spotted this steal saw the stock climb 130% by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Peloton in 2023 had a P/E of 20 but near-zero growth (PEG above 3). Its stock cratered -50% as fitness trends faded. Story: NVIDIA’s PEG hit 0.9 in Q3 2023 (P/E 30, growth 35%) during AI hype, a steal for tech (average PEG below 1.2). PEG filters hype. A stock can look expensive until you factor in growth. ----------------------------------------------------- 🧱 3. P/B Ratio | Price-to-Book What it tells you: How much you pay compared to what the company owns (like buildings or cash). Short Example: A P/B below 1.5 means you’re paying close to the company’s asset value. High P/B? Expect strong profits or risk. Strong: Below 1.5 Caution: Below 1 + poor earnings = value trap Industry Averages: - Banks: Below 1.5 - Insurance: Below 1.3 - REITs: Use NAV (aim below 1.2) - Tech: Often ignored - Energy: Below 2 Story: In 2024, JPMorgan Chase’s P/B was 1.4, solid for banks (average below 1.5). Investors who bought enjoyed 100% gains. n 2023, Bed Bath & Beyond’s P/B fell below 1 with collapsing earnings. It looked cheap but filed for bankruptcy that year. Tip: Only use this in asset-heavy sectors like banking or real estate. ----------------------------------------------------- ⚙️ 4. ROE | Return on Equity What it tells you: How well a company turns investor money into profits. Short Example: An ROE above 15% means the company makes good money from your investment. Low ROE? Weak returns. Strong: Above 15% Caution: Below 10% unless in slow-growth industries Industry Averages: - Tech: 20–30% - Consumer Staples: 15–25% - Utilities: 8–12% - Financials: 10–15% - Healthcare: 15–20% Story: Coca-Cola (KO) has kept ROE above 35% for years, a sign of brand power and pricing strength. Eli Lilly’s (LLY) ROE stayed above 25% from 2022–2024, a healthcare leader (average 15–20%). Its weight-loss drug Mounjaro drove consistent profits, lifting the stock 150%+ in two years. Checking ROE trends helped investors spot this winner. Tip: If ROE is high but D/E is also high, be careful, it might just be leverage. ----------------------------------------------------- 💰 5. Net Margin | Profitability What it tells you: How much profit a company keeps from its sales or what % of revenue ends up as pure profit. Short Example: A 10% margin means $10 profit per $100 in sales. Low margin? Tough business or high costs. Strong: Above 10-15%+ Caution: Below 5% Industry Averages: - Software: 20–30% - Retail: 2–5% - Manufacturing: 8–12% - Consumer Staples: 10–15% - Energy: 5–10% - Healthcare: 8–15% Story: Walmart’s (WMT) 2% net margin looks tiny — but it’s expected in retail. A software firm with 5%? That’s a warning — high costs or weak pricing. In 2023, Zoom’s (ZM) net margin fell to 5% (down from 25% in 2021), well below software’s 20–30% average. Pricing pressure and competition crushed its stock quite a lot. Meanwhile, Apple’s 25% margin in 2024 (tech average 20%) remained a cash cow. Tip: Margins show whether the company owns its pricing or competes on price. ----------------------------------------------------- 💣 6. D/E Ratio | Debt-to-Equity What it tells you: How much debt a company uses compared to investor money. Short Example: A D/E below 1 means more investor cash than debt. High D/E? Risky if profits dip. Strong: Below 1 Caution: Above 2 (except REITs or utilities) Industry Averages: - Tech: 0–0.5 - Industrials: 0.5–1.5 - REITs: 1.5–2.5 (manageable due to structure) - Utilities: 1–2 - Energy: 0.5–1.5 Story: In 2024, Tesla’s D/E dropped below 0.3 (tech average 0–0.5) as it paid down debt, signaling strength despite sales dips - a massive rally afterward. Tip: Rising debt + falling profits = a storm coming. Always check both. ----------------------------------------------------- 💵 7. Free Cash Flow (FCF) What it tells you: Cash left after paying for operations and growth investments. Short Example: Apple’s $100 billion cash pile in 2024 funded stock buybacks, boosting shares. Low cash? Trouble looms. Strong: Positive and growing Caution: Negative for multiple years Sector notes: - Tech: Lots of cash (think billions) - Industrials: Up and down, check trends - REITs: Look at FFO (cash from properties), aim high - Energy: Has cash, but swings with oil prices - Healthcare: Steady cash, not too high Story: Netflix had negative FCF while scaling content. Once costs stabilized, FCF turned positive and stock re-rated sharply. Pro tip: Profits don’t mean much without real cash. FCF is often more honest. Cash is king: Companies need cash to pay bills, reduce debt, or fund growth. If FCF is falling, they might be burning through cash reserves or borrowing, which isn’t sustainable. Potential issues : This mismatch could signal problems like poor cash collection, heavy spending, or even accounting tricks to inflate profits. ----------------------------------------------------- 🚀 8. EPS Growth | Earnings Power What it tells you: How fast a company’s profits per share are growing. Short Example: EPS up 10% yearly means more profit per share, lifting stock prices. Flat EPS? No growth, no gains. Strong: Above 10% Caution: Below 5%, flat/negative for 3+ years Industry Averages: - Tech: 15–30% - Staples: 5–10% - REITs: 3–6% (via FFO growth) - Healthcare: 10–15% - Financials: 5–10% - Energy: 5–15% (cyclical) Story: In Q1 2024, NVIDIA’s forward EPS growth of 30% (tech average 20%+) fueled a rally as AI chips dominated. Checking forward estimates helped investors avoid traps like Intel, with flat EPS and a drop. Pro tip: A stock with flat EPS and no dividend? There’s no reason to own it. ----------------------------------------------------- 💵 9. Dividend Yield | Passive Income What it tells you: How much cash you get yearly from dividends per dollar invested. Short Example: A 3% yield means $3 per $100 invested. High yield? Check if it’s sustainable. Good: ~3–4% Red Flag: Above 6% with a payout ratio above 80-90% Industry Averages: - Utilities: 3–5% - REITs: 3–6% - Consumer Staples: 2–4% - Tech: 0–2% - Energy: 2–5% ----------------------------------------------------- 💡 Final Thought: How to Use All of This Top investors don’t use just one metric. They look at the whole picture: Good growth? Check PEG. Good profits? Confirm with ROE and margin. Safe balance sheet? Look at D/E and cash flow. Fair valuation? P/E + FCF Yield + P/B. Real power = Combining metrics. A company with P/E 15, PEG 0.8, ROE 20%, low debt, and positive FCF? That’s your winner. A stock with P/E 8, but no growth, high debt, and negative cash flow? That’s a trap. ----------------------------------------------------- Real-World Combos 🎯Winners: Tech Gem: P/E 20, PEG 0.8, ROE 25%, D/E 0.4, growing FCF, EPS 20%+ (e.g., NVIDIA 2023: AI-driven growth, stock soared). Energy Steal: P/E 15, P/B 1.5, FCF positive, Dividend Yield 3.5% (e.g., Chevron 2023: Cash flow king). ⚠️Traps: Value Trap: P/E 8, flat EPS, D/E 2.5, negative FCF (e.g., Peloton 2023). Overhyped Tech: P/E 50, PEG 3, Net Margin 5%, D/E 1.5 (e.g., Rivian 2024). ----------------------------------------------------- 🚀 Share your own combos! What do you personally look for when picking a stock? If you spotted something off in the numbers, or have a valuable insight to add — please, drop it in the comments.👇 💡 Let’s turn this into a thread that’s not just good but superb and genuinely helpful for everyone. ----------------------------------------------------- Final Thought “Buy great companies at fair prices, not fair companies at great prices.” – Warren Buffett This guide gives you the map. Charts, tell you when. These numbers tell you what, and why. And this post? It’s just the beginning! These 9 metrics are part one of a bigger series I’m building — where we’ll go even deeper, with more advanced ratios, smarter combos, and real case studies. If this guide helped you see financial numbers a little clearer, there’s a good chance it’ll help your investor friend too, especially if they’re just starting their journey...🤝Share it with them! I built this as much for myself as for anyone else who wants to get better.👊 If you made it this far — thank you! 🙏 ...and super thankful if you hit "The Boost" on this post 🚀 Cheers, Vaido
NEducation
by VaidoVeek
2
Tesla - This Is Actually Not Gambling!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) still looks quite bullish: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Just a couple of weeks ago I published a bunch of analysis, explaining all the reasons for a potential -40% drop on Tesla. However on the higher timeframe, Tesla still looks quite strong and with the bullish break and retest playing out so far, we could even see new all time highs soon. Levels to watch: $260, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NLong
by basictradingtv
50
Tesla Suspends Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Were Often WrongTesla Pulls the Plug on Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Weren't Worth Much Anyway Tesla, the electric vehicle behemoth that has captivated and often confounded investors for over a decade, has made another move guaranteed to stir debate: it's suspending its forward-looking guidance. For many companies, withdrawing financial forecasts signals significant uncertainty or a major strategic shift, often sending shares tumbling. While Tesla's stock undoubtedly reacts to such news, a deeper look reveals a compelling argument: Tesla's official guidance, particularly in recent years, had become such a moving target, so frequently untethered from eventual reality, that its predictive value was already deeply questionable. Suspending it might simply be acknowledging the obvious. For years, Tesla's earnings calls and investor communications were punctuated by ambitious, often audacious, targets set by CEO Elon Musk and the company. These weren't just vague aspirations; they were often specific numbers for vehicle deliveries, production ramps, timelines for new technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD), and launch dates for anticipated models like the Cybertruck or the Semi. The market, enthralled by Tesla's disruptive potential and Musk's charismatic pronouncements, frequently hung on these words, baking them into valuation models and trading strategies. However, the history of Tesla meeting these self-imposed targets is, charitably speaking, inconsistent. The guidance often veered into the quixotic, reflecting a potent blend of extreme optimism, engineering ambition, and perhaps a dash of Musk's famed "reality distortion field." Consider the infamous "production hell" of the Model 3 ramp-up. Initial targets were wildly optimistic, projecting volumes that the company struggled immensely to achieve, facing bottlenecks in battery production and assembly line automation. While Tesla eventually overcame these hurdles, the timeline and cost deviated significantly from early guidance. Similarly, the promise of Full Self-Driving has been a perennial "next year" phenomenon. While the capabilities of Tesla's Autopilot and FSD Beta have advanced significantly, the arrival of true Level 4 or 5 autonomy, capable of operating without driver supervision under virtually all conditions – as often implied by the timelines suggested in guidance – remains elusive, years behind schedules hinted at in past forecasts. The Cybertruck provides another stark example. Unveiled in 2019 with a projected start date that came and went multiple times, its eventual, limited launch in late 2023 was years behind schedule, and scaling its unique manufacturing process remains a challenge. Guidance around its ramp-up has been adjusted repeatedly. This pattern isn't necessarily born from deliberate deception, but rather from a confluence of factors inherent to Tesla's DNA and the volatile industries it operates in: 1. Aggressive Goal Setting: Musk is known for setting incredibly ambitious "stretch goals" intended to motivate teams to achieve breakthroughs. While effective internally, translating these aspirational targets directly into public financial guidance is fraught with risk. 2. Underestimation of Complexity: Bringing revolutionary products to mass market – whether it's a new vehicle platform, a complex software suite like FSD, or novel battery technology – involves navigating unforeseen engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, and regulatory hurdles. Initial guidance often seemed to underestimate these complexities. 3. Market Volatility: The EV market itself is dynamic. Consumer demand shifts, government incentives change, raw material costs fluctuate, and competition intensifies – all factors that can derail even well-laid plans and render guidance obsolete. 4. The "Musk Factor": Elon Musk's public statements, sometimes made spontaneously on social media or during earnings calls, often became de facto guidance, even if not formally enshrined. His optimism could inflate expectations beyond what the operational side of the business could reliably deliver on a set schedule. Given this history, why did the market continue to pay such close attention? Part of it was the sheer scale of Tesla's ambition and its undeniable success in revolutionizing the automotive industry. Investors betting on disruption were often willing to overlook missed targets, focusing instead on the long-term vision. Past stock performance also created a feedback loop; as the stock soared despite missed guidance, it reinforced the idea that the specific numbers mattered less than the overall trajectory and narrative. Guidance served as a signal of intent and ambition, even if the execution timeline slipped. However, the context has shifted dramatically. Tesla is no longer the lone wolf in a nascent EV market. Competition is fierce, particularly from Chinese automakers like BYD, but also from legacy manufacturers finally hitting their stride with compelling EV offerings. Global EV demand growth, while still present, has slowed from its previously exponential pace. Tesla itself has engaged in significant price cuts globally to maintain volume, putting pressure on its once-stellar automotive margins. In this more challenging environment, the luxury of consistently missing ambitious targets wears thin. The decision to suspend guidance now can be interpreted in several ways: • Pragmatic Realism: Management may genuinely lack visibility into near-term demand, production capabilities (especially with new models or processes), or the impact of macroeconomic factors. Suspending guidance is arguably more responsible than issuing forecasts they have low confidence in. • Strategic Pivot: Tesla is increasingly emphasizing its future potential in AI, robotics (Optimus), and autonomous ride-sharing (Robotaxi). These ventures have even longer and more uncertain development timelines than vehicle production. Focusing investor attention away from quarterly delivery numbers might be part of a strategy to reframe the company's narrative around these future bets. • Avoiding Accountability: A more cynical take is that suspending guidance removes a key benchmark against which management's performance can be judged, particularly during a period of slowing growth and heightened competition. Regardless of the primary motivation, the practical implication for investors is clear: the already thin reed of Tesla's official guidance is now gone entirely. This forces a greater reliance on analyzing tangible results – actual deliveries, reported margins, cash flow generation, progress on FSD adoption rates, and demonstrable advancements in new ventures – rather than promises of future performance. The suspension underscores that investing in Tesla requires a strong belief in its long-term vision and its ability to execute on extremely complex technological and manufacturing challenges, often without a clear, company-provided roadmap for the immediate future. The focus must shift from parsing guidance to meticulously evaluating performance, competitive positioning, and the plausibility of its next-generation bets. In conclusion, Tesla's decision to stop issuing formal guidance is less of a shockwave and more of a formal acknowledgment of a long-standing reality. Its forecasts were often more aspirational than operational, reflecting a culture of ambitious goal-setting within a highly volatile industry. While the absence of guidance introduces a new layer of uncertainty, savvy investors likely already applied a significant discount factor to Tesla's projections. The company's future success now hinges more transparently than ever not on what it promises for tomorrow, but on what it demonstrably delivers today. The quixotic forecasts may be gone, but the fundamental challenge of execution remains.
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by bryandowningqln
Understanding Market Types in Drummond GeometryThe 5 Market Types: 1️⃣ Congestion Entrance – The market slows down after a trend and starts moving sideways. 2️⃣ Congestion Action – Prices oscillate within a range, with no clear trend direction. 3️⃣ Congestion Exit – The market breaks out of congestion, starting a new trend. 4️⃣ Trending – Prices move in a clear direction, either up or down. 5️⃣ Trend Reversal – A trend suddenly shifts in the opposite direction. 🔥 The 3 Close Rule for Trends A trend is defined when the PL Dot (a short-term moving average) remains on one side of the close for three consecutive bars. If this happens, the market is in a trend until congestion begins. 📌 Congestion Entrance: The First Sign of a Trend Change A congestion entrance occurs when the PL Dot switches sides relative to the close. This signals that the market is entering a sideways phase. Until the next trend establishes itself, the market will stay in congestion. 🔹 How to spot it? If a trend slows down and price closes on the opposite side of the PL Dot, it is the first bar of congestion. The market remains in congestion until a new 3-close trend forms. 📌 Congestion Action: The Market Moves Sideways During congestion action, prices move back and forth between support and resistance without breaking out. The PL Dot is often flat, and traders look for signals of continuation or breakout. 🔹 How to trade it? Identify strong support & resistance levels. Trade within the range (buy low, sell high). Watch for signs of congestion exit (breakout). 📌 Congestion Exit: The Breakout Phase 🚀 A congestion exit happens when the market leaves congestion and starts a new trend. This is one of the most profitable trading opportunities. 🔹 How to spot it? Price breaks above resistance or below support. The PL Dot starts moving in a clear direction. The market closes outside the congestion range. 🔹 How to trade it? Enter after a confirmed breakout. Use PL Dot & support levels to manage risk. Pyramid your position if the trend continues strongly. 📌 Trending Market: The Sweet Spot for Traders 📈 Once the market has exited congestion, it enters a trend. This is when traders can ride momentum and maximize gains. 🔹 How to trade a trend? Enter early & stay in as long as PL Dot supports the move. Pyramid your position for bigger profits. Monitor resistance & support to determine exits. 📌 Trend Reversal: Spotting the Shift in Direction 🔄 A trend reversal happens when the market suddenly changes direction. This is confirmed when three consecutive closes appear on the opposite side of the PL Dot. 🔹 How to spot it? PL Dot pulls back into the range. Resistance/support levels start breaking. A major higher timeframe resistance level is hit. 🔹 How to trade it? Exit your position before the reversal is confirmed. Look for a new congestion entrance or a trend change signal. If reversal is confirmed, trade in the new trend direction. 🎯 Key Takeaways for Drummond Traders: ✔️ Know the 5 market types. Each phase requires a different strategy. ✔️ The PL Dot is key. It signals trend strength and potential reversals. ✔️ Congestion action = patience. Wait for clear breakouts before entering trades. ✔️ Ride the trend. The best profits come from early identification of trends. ✔️ Monitor resistance & support. This helps determine potential reversals. 🚀 Master these market types, and you’ll be able to trade with more confidence, better timing, and higher accuracy. 📌 Do you use Drummond Geometry in your trading? Drop a comment below! 👇
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by JordanMT
Tesla Stock: Neutral Bias Persists Following Earnings ReportTesla’s stock is currently hovering near the $250 level, after a bullish gap formed following the release of its latest earnings report. Initially, the company's results fell short of expectations: earnings per share came in at $0.27 versus the expected $0.39, and total revenue reached $19.3 billion versus $21.11 billion anticipated by the market. Despite this, the stock's initial reaction was a bullish gap, fueled by brief, fleeting optimism, but the session ultimately closed with a notable indecision candle, casting some doubt on whether a new short-term uptrend is truly beginning. Bearish Channel Remains in Play: Despite the recent upward jump in the latest session, buying momentum has so far failed to break through the upper boundary of the descending channel that has persisted since late December. For now, this bearish channel remains the most important formation to monitor, based on recent price behavior. MACD: The MACD histogram is currently oscillating close to the neutral zero line, indicating that the average strength of the recent moving average swings remains largely neutral. If this behavior continues, the market may lack a clear short-term trend. ADX: The ADX indicator is showing a similar setup. The line continues to hover around the 20 level, which typically signals indecision in the market. This reflects a neutral tone in the current price movement, suggesting that a lack of momentum is driving a series of directionless swings. Unless the ADX line starts to rise steadily, a neutral bias may continue to dominate the stock in the short term. Key Levels: $220 – Key Support: This level marks the lowest point in recent months. A break below this support could reactivate the bearish channel that has defined short-term price action. $290 – Technical Barrier: Aligned with the 200-period simple moving average, a bullish breakout above this level could pose a serious threat to the current bearish trend channel. $330 – Final Resistance: This level is aligned with the 100-period simple moving average. If the stock reaches this area, it could confirm a shift in market momentum and pave the way for a more sustained bullish trend on the chart. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
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by FOREXcom
TSLA watch $253.47 (again) Golden Genesis fib to determine trendTSLA back to the Golden Genesis fib that we keep harping about. This is a BIG deal, as the most important level of this epoc for it. Many PINGs (exact hits) have made all traders keenly aware of it. What happens here will say a LOT to a LOT of traders and algos. ========================================================= Full view of the "Genesis Sequence" =========================================================
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by EuroMotif