Gold $GC $GLDNice SCTR score and retrace to the 1HR fib. Has already bounced. SET:GC targets 2563/78 on this move.
GDF1! trade ideas
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis for TradingView - Buying In this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" explains the importance of volume and price analysis. This example shows a Volume Spread Analysis trade set up called "Potential Professional Buying"followed by "A Test in a Rising Market". The example used is of Gold, and the same set up happened in the spot and futures contracts simultaneously.
We use our Wyckoff VSA plug in for TradingView that was recently launched and we will be posting weekly charts for you to follow. Here at TradeGuider, the company that developed the plug in for TradingView, we do not use any mathematical formulas, but instead use the analysis of Supply and Demand, Case and Effect and Effort vs Result measured by the volume on the price bar, the high and low of that price bar (referred to in Europe as the spread and in the US and Canada as the range).
Below is a more detailed explanation of the Wyckoff VSA System. Sorry its a bit long but it is important if you follow us that You understand the underlying logic for the trade. This system works in all markets and timeframes, including stocks, futures, FOREX (Yes you read right, we get tick volume through TradingView for FOREX and it is extremely powerful.).
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis for TradingView developed by the Inventor of Volume Spread Analysis, Tom Williams, and his protégé, Gavin Holmes, who has now taken over the responsibility for teaching this method to thousands of traders and investors worldwide.
Most traders are aware of the two widely known approaches used to analyse a market- fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Many different methods can be used in each approach, but generally speaking fundamental analysis is concerned with the question of why something in the market will happen, and technical analysis attempts to answer the question of when something will happen.
Volume Spread Analysis, however, is a third approach to analysing any market. It combines the best of both fundamental and technical analysis into a singular approach that answers both questions of 'why' and 'when' simultaneously.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) methodology takes a multi-dimensional approach to analysing the market, and looks at the relationship between price, spread or range, and volume. VSA is a proprietary market analysis method conceived by veteran trader, Tom Williams, who was a highly successful member of a professional trading syndicate in the 1960s and also the creator of TradeGuider Systems. (www.tradeguider.com)
The VSA method works particularly well at highlighting the imbalances of Supply and Demand.
VSA builds on the pioneering work of Richard D Wyckoff, a famous 1920's trader. He based his trading decisions on supply and demand in the markets and how they are inextricably linked to professional activity - 'Smart Money' trading (Wyckoff's principles are still taught at the Golden Gate University in San Francisco). In any business where there is money involved and profits to make, there are professionals. Doctors are collectively known as professionals, but they specialize in certain areas of medicine. The financial markets are no different. The financial markets have professionals that specialize in certain instruments as well: stocks, grains, FOREX, etc. The activity of these professional operators, and more important, their true intentions, are clearly shown on a price chart if the trader knows how to read them. Volume is the major indicator for the professional trader.
Volume Spread Analysis seeks to establish the cause of price movements, and from the cause, predict the future direction of prices. The ‘cause’ is quite simply the imbalance between Supply and Demand in the market, which is created by the activity of professional operators. It is the close study of the reactions of these specialists, market makers, professionals, or “Smart Money‘’which will enlighten you to future market behaviour.
VSA looks at the interrelationship between three variables on the chart in order to determine the balance of supply and demand as well as the probable near term direction of the market. These variables are the amount of volume on a price bar, the price spread or range of that bar (do not confuse this with the bid/ask spread), and the closing price on the spread of that bar. For the correct analysis of volume, one needs to realize that the recorded volume information contains only half of the meaning required to arrive at a correct analysis. The other half of the meaning is found in the price range. Volume always indicates the amount of activity going on and the corresponding price spread shows the price movement on that volume.
The effect is either a bullish or bearish move according to the prevailing market conditions. The ‘Smart Money’ operating in the markets are very much aware of the emotions that drive YOU, and the uninformed traders or investors, in your trading.
Why do the members of the self-regulated Exchanges around the world like to keep true volume information away from you as far as possible? The reason is because they know how important it is in analysing a market! The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of technical analysis. To use a chart without volume data is similar to buying an automobile without a gasoline tank.
Where volume is dealt with in other forms of technical analysis, it is often viewed in isolation, or averaged in some way across an extended timeframe. Analysing volume, or price for that matter, is something that cannot be broken down into simple mathematical formulae. This is one of the reasons why there are so many technical indicators; some formulas work best for cyclic markets, some formulas are better for volatile situations, whilst others are better when prices are trending.
Some technical indicators attempt to combine volume and price movements together. This is a better way, but rest assured that this approach has its limitations too, because at times the market will go up on high volume, but can do exactly the same thing on low volume. Prices can suddenly go sideways, or even fall off, on exactly the same volume. So, there are obviously other factors at work.
Price and volume are intimately linked, and the interrelationship is a complex one, which is the reason Volume Spread Analysis was developed in the first place.
The History of the Wyckoff Method and TradeGuider
Volume Spread Analysis was previously known as Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis and has been in existence for over 20 years. Driven by an artificial intelligence engine, the TradeGuider SMART VSA System is unique and is capable of analysing any liquid market in any time frame by extracting the information it needs in order to indicate imbalances of Supply and Demand evident in a chart. In doing so, TradeGuider is able to graphically exhibit the essential dynamics of market movement.
As mentioned earlier, this is not a new concept. Tom Williams, the inventor of VSA, is a former syndicate trader. He observed that the markets were being manipulated and that the key to unlocking the truth lay in the relationship shown in the Volume, the Spread of the bar, and its Closing Price.
Tom spent many years studying the concepts of Richard D Wyckoff, a renowned trader during the 1920’s and 1930’s. Richard Wyckoff wrote several books about trading the Markets, and he eventually created the Stock Market Institute in Phoenix, Arizona. At its core, Wyckoff’s work is based on the analysis of trading ranges and determining when the stocks are in basing, markdown, distribution, or mark-up phases. Incorporated into these phases are ongoing shifts between ‘weak hands’, or public ownership, and ‘the composite operator’, now commonly known as “Smart Money”.
When Tom Williams went back to Beverly Hills in the early 1980’s, he began to investigate the possibility of computerizing the system he had learned as a syndicate trader- and so began the evolution of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). With the assistance of an experienced computer programmer, Tom carefully studied thousands of charts to recognize the obvious patterns that were left when professional operators, or Smart Money, were active. This technique, although simple in concept, took several years to write and is now taught as a methodology in combination with software known as TradeGuider.
Soybean oil gold8 20 24 in this video we talked about the new high on gold and the argument that this may be a reversal pattern based on ABCD patterns. I also talked about the importance of looking at higher time frames to find clues that the market might do something that you would otherwise Miss. we also talked about soybean oil which I believe will trade higher and I wanted to tell you how that pattern looks and I wanted to discuss about how the buyers and the sellers affect the market and how this affects how the market accelerates. I also decided to talk about patterns that can allow you to trade a little more frequently but can allow you to take profits before you give back some of the profits and not just that how you can scale in and out and take advantage of certain patterns if you're willing to trade with a little bit more frequency.... which is a lot harder to do because of the stress, but it's a way of generating profits and managing risk through scaling techniques. there are a lot of ways to scale but I showed you simple patterns the way I would look at them whether or not I decide to scale. I've talked about scaling many times over the past 6 years or so when I was more active with the videos.
GOLD - Rockin' Higher (MACRO BULLISH!!!!)From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t repeat itself but it certainly rhymes.
We have two active Time at Mode weekly bullish trends.
First trend expires mid September with the highest target of $2,900.
Second trend expires in November with the highest target of $3,100.
Combining both short and longer term trends, we could easily expect price continuation toward $3,000's by the end of the year.
Short for a retracementClear BOS to the upside on the 4H chart. Expecting the 15m swing to flip bearish to facilitate a pullback on the 4h swing. Had a confirmed internal bearish flip on the 15m. Took a short at the newly formed supply zone of this flip, aiming for a pullback to the yellow line below.
Sleeping Giant Awakes: Gold's Path to $2,800If you haven`t bought Gold before the previous breakout:
Now I am optimistic that GOLD is on the cusp of reaching a new all-time high, with a target of $2,800 by year's end, driven by a significant breakout.
The bullish sentiment is clearly reflected in the options chain for major gold miners!
Provided that gold maintains its position above the crucial support level of $2,428, the bullish trajectory remains intact. We foresee gold not only surpassing its historical high of $2,483 in the near future but also advancing to $2,800.
After lying dormant for many years, this sleeping giant appears ready to awaken and exhibit remarkable growth.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT if 1Hr Demand FAILS...?COMEX:GC1!
"PERSISTENCE. Nothing in this world can take the place of good old persistence. Talent won't. Nothing's more common than unsuccessful men with talent. The world is full of educated fools. Persistence and determination alone are all-powerful. Show that you don't have to be defeated by anything. That you can have peace of mind, improved health, and a never-ceasing flow of energy." -The Founder
Family as we get ready to kick start this trading week I have developed a High Probable Set Up SHORT on GOLD if we can get the following sequence of events to take place. Below I will breakdown what I'll be looking for to enter the Market. Now remember before we get started, nothing in the market is set in stone on a individual trade basis. We play the longterm game of probability! Understand the Odds N beat them longterm is our aim! Now to the SHORT breakdown for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE ON.....
1) Bulls have created a NEW HISTORIC ALL TIME HIGH here on this asset. Price just hit ($2550.0) and we just so slightly started to see some exhaustion with sellers pushing price lower. * On the 1hr TF bulls pushed price right back up into the Un-mititgated 1Hr Supply zone and now this is where we will see if Sellers will Defend their positions establishing the stronger hand and push price lower.
2) 1Hr TF PA.... We have developed a 1Hr demand zone just slightly below current pricing that ranges from ($2534.5 to $2523.5) and this is where we'll see how sellers & buyers react to each other to see who will establish the stronger hand. If This demand Zone Fails with a confirmed candle closure underneath then I will be compelled to go SHORT. Price that I want to see hit is ($2523.5) in which would be a 1Hr CHoCh (Change of Character) if Sellers Hold their defensive stance at 1HR Supply.
3) If and when price breaks the 1Hr Demand Zone below and we get a confirmed 1Hr CHoCh candle closure underneath then I'll enter off a LTF 5-15m level of Supply and target the 30m Demand zone just slightly underneath Daily Support Level. pricing ($2505.5) roughly around 150pts in our favor SHORT...
**** Now remember this 1 KEY POINT, We are trading above a Major Daily Support Level ($2520.0) If price breaks underneath 1Hr CHoCh Level ($2523.5) we have to be very cautious as we are approaching a MKL (Major Key Level) Daily Support Level!
4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
***Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
(Update) !!! Gold daily Chart Analysis : Bull or Bear ? (READ)Gold it was in an ascending triangle which means the price is about to do a good bullish movement ✨ Fortunately The break out happened. The price can increase as much as the measured price movement ( AB=CD ) .
✨Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad.
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2550
bull case: Bulls printed a new ath. They finally want their breakout above and much higher prices. All patterns are against them and the odds obviously also. I would not look for longs above 2500. If they could break above 2550 and any pullback would stay above 2530, their chances of another leg up would be decent.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears see the trading range since April and the nested bull wedge on lower time frames and want a reversal down to at least 2430 again. They absolutely need to close this month below 2500 or the breakout above could actually happen and market would have to find new resistance, which could be much much higher than 2550. As of now market is almost making only perfect two legged moves inside the trading range and bulls just had their second. Market favors a reversal if bears come around on Monday.
Invalidation is above 2550.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2473 and now we are at 2537. Neutral outlook.
short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the bear trend line.
8.18.2024 Gold Extended To ATHsGold has extended to all time highs. It has broken through out top zone, so we no longer have a top zone as resistance.
Drew a channel on the chart that it may turn at. We will need to see a change in structure (Lower Highs/Lows) in order to short it, back to out previous zone it had broken.
GOLD possible REVERSAL Ideea As reaching the psychological level of 2500, the past few weeks that was a bigger consolidation, now it made a breakthrough, but closed back inside the box. Tho it looks very bullish, sentiment is also bullish, but i fear a new ATH between 2500-2600 and from there to retest the 2100 level , before reaching the 2800 awaited level. Even on Daily it closed inside the box.
I am waiting a sign that will give me a reason for a short, but i watch those 2 levels closely because i see it a bit overextended.
GC entered consolidationThe Gold market is in a curious state. The once volatile GC contract has settled into a seemingly tranquil trading range between $2400 and $2500. Volume has dwindled, creating an eerie silence in what was once a bustling marketplace. But could this calm before the storm be a golden opportunity for savvy traders?
A strategy known as a "short strangle" is catching the eye of many. This involves betting on price stability by selling both call and put options. With low volatility, the potential rewards can be enticing. However, as with all investments, there's a risk: a sudden market upheaval could lead to substantial losses.
Is the Gold market about to erupt from its slumber? Or will it continue its peaceful slumber, rewarding those who dare to bet on boredom? Only time will tell. But one thing is clear: the current market conditions have created a unique landscape for traders who are both brave and knowledgeable.
