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GDF1! trade ideas

Gold: Rehabilitation 🏋️‍♂️The gold price seems to be recovering at the moment and is gradually making significant gains. We expect it to continue its corrective rise within the magenta wave (b) to the same-colored Target Zone between $2123.60 and $2147.10. An important step on this path will be to overcome the high of the magenta-colored wave alt.(x). As long as the price has not succeeded in doing so, the 40% probable alternative remains, which entails a direct descent.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MarketIntel
Is there enough juice to push Gold back above $2000?The tides have turned this week for Precious Metals after a stunning collapse in CPI, followed by a series of weaker economic data points. Fed fund futures are questioning the Federal Reserve's hard stance. Currently, the latest CME FedWatch tool indicates a 2% chance for the first interest rate cut in January, followed by a 35% chance in March and a 65% chance in May. The modest uptick in initial claims data helped fuel the recovery in Gold, and bargain-hunters aggressively stepped into the Silver market. The Gold/Silver ratio quickly retreated from 87:1 back down to 83:1, leaving us to wonder if this rally is for real. Taking it to the Charts After pressing the 50 DMA and trading down to our pocket support ($1950-$1938), Gold futures were able to stage a strong recovery, slicing through the 200 DMA. We want to carefully monitor key resistance levels at $2000 and $2020. Any breach above should trigger the next wave of short covering followed by fresh buying. Remember that every bull market starts with a short-covering rally. Momentum studies are turning higher, with stochastics rising from oversold territory, followed by the MACD histogram, which is also beginning to rise. We see value in adding short-term options above the breakout point of $2020 and adding micro futures on any weakness to our pocket support. The technicals leave you with a clear line in the sand below $1938 for risk management purposes. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Are Recession Fears Still Looming? Gold is Flying Gold has enjoyed an impressive rally over the last 5 weeks - up 6% in the month of October. Historically, gold has always been the quintessential “flight-to-quality” asset. Whenever there are geopolitical or macroeconomic fears permeating financial markets, gold has outperformed. As it stands, December gold is on the brink of retesting the psychologically significant $2,000/oz level. So is the recent price strength evidence of investors’ fears of a looming recession? What other evidence would support this? www.tradingview.com Crude Oil is Crying Crude oil has fallen as sharply as gold has rallied. Since the swing high to 89.85 on October 29th, crude oil prices have fallen more than $13/barrel - settling at $72.90 on Thursday. Price contractions of this magnitude are typically demand driven, which would be another feather in the cap of demand growth fears on behalf of market participants. But, how could you explain the recent performance of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000? In short - interest rates. As we near what is expected to be the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, equities have performed very well in anticipation of rates eventually coming down. The primary reason that the Fed would halt rate hikes, or begin lowering rates would come as a result of economic slowdowns. Stocks Are Strong All in all, the American economy has proven resilient. The rally underway in the equity markets has been substantiated by strong economic data, and disinflationary CPI readings. The proverbial “canary in the coal mine” could be consumer credit and lower-than-normal personal savings rates. However, there are very few signs of a robust economic breakdown coming in the immediate future in the United States. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Gold Future Prediction 17.11.2023Gold MCX Future - November Intraday Trend Analysis for 17.11.2023 Buy at: 61224.87 with Target 1 - 61836.87 and Target 2 - 62526, Add one position at: 61012 Sell at: 60799.13 with Target 1 - 59607.13 and Target 2 - 58918, Stoploss: Buy Position SL: 60825 Sale Position SL: 61235 This Gold MCX Future analysis is for educational purposes and one should attempt a paper trade on the below mentioned levels for an Intraday Range of 1804 Points on 17.11.2023
MCX:GOLD1!
by NumroTrader
''Spot Gold Gained 0.1% to 1,961.81 Per Ounce ''When trading Gold options do not use Margin. Remember Gold is a safe heaven asset. Gold COMEX:GC1! Is in a Bull market. The parabolic shows you the best entry for gold. Gold is the best hedge against inflation. Learn to use the parabolic system for entry. According to Reuters Nov. 16, 2023, ''Spot Gold gained 0.1% to 1,961.81 per ounce '' There is a connection between the Red interest rate and Gol. Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell anything I recommend. Do your own research before you trade. Rocket boost this content to learn more.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Buy dec gold 1956 on stop, if filled, sell stop: 1918, tgt 1979Buy dec gold 1956 on stop, if filled, sell stop: 1918, tgt 1979 **Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results** hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. one of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. in addition, hypothetical trading does no involve fina ncial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. there are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Cannon-Trading
GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! An interesting activityFor the third day in a row, there are a number of positions on the 2080 call, which is remarkable given the downward movement of the underlying asset. However, the trading volume that took place yesterday at this strike is excessive and probably the highest for the entire 2023, at least based on our regular observations. The second factor that may signal that the most informed participants are in action is the volatility of the Gold ATM strike. As you can see in the screenshot below, the volatility of the ATM is just below average. According to our observations, it is volatility when insiders and so-called "smart money" show up.
COMEX:GCG2024Long
by ClashChartsTeam
3
Gold: Shining Bright with OpportunitiesGold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing cycles spell a boost for industrial materials, like copper, while contractionary periods spell downturns in the economy and a preference for 'flight to safety', boosting gold holdings. An interesting observation from the chart above is the correlation between the Gold/Copper ratio and the inverted US PMI, moving in tandem over the last decade. However, looking at the current scenario, the PMI has turned lower, yet the Gold/Copper ratio has remained relatively muted, suggesting that gold may currently be underpriced. Similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio shows a less pronounced but similar effect. Significant drops in the PMI below the 50 level have historically triggered notable increases in the Gold/Copper ratio. With the PMI currently below 50 for a sustained period, this might be priming the ratio for a potential upward surge. Yields, Fed Expectation & Gold As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold loses its appeal when interest rates rise, leading investors to prefer interest-yielding products. We covered the effect of a Fed rate cut on gold in a previous article here . While the Fed remains steadfast in holding rates, even the act of pausing rate hikes positively impacts gold. This effect is observed via the Gold/US10Y Yields ratio. The previous pause in rate hikes preceded a significant run-up in this ratio. Additionally, this ratio is currently near its resistance level, which it has respected multiple times over the last decade. With the Fed expected to continue holding rates, now could be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. Gold Price Action Gold’s current price action also shows a completed cup-and-handle pattern. With an initial attempt to break higher halted, it now trades right above the handle. Additionally, gold could arguably be trading in an ascending triangle pattern, as noted by its price action as well as generally declining volume, potentially signaling a bullish continuation pattern. In summary, given the Fed's stance on holding rates, the correlation between PMI and the Gold/Copper ratio, and the bullish technical indicators in gold's price action, a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. To express our view, we can buy the CME Gold Futures at the current level of 1962. Using the cup and handle pattern to guide the take profit level, at 2400 and stop at 1890. Each 0.10 point move in gold futures is for 10 USD. The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the CME Micro Gold contract where the notional is one-tenth of the regular size gold contract. Here, each 0.10 point move is for 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
9
Gold: We are Not Messing AroundIf you read last week's post, "Is the Top in on Gold?," you will know I was preparing for a correction, which played out perfectly. Gold futures could work their way lower from here, given the amount of premium pumped into the market from the October 6th lows until the October 27th highs (+ $196.20). The Hezbollah leader already discredited widespread escalation on November 3rd that triggered an exodus of those fortunately enough to capture the previous upward move. A Hawkish Fed From the October 27th highs until this week's lows, we have only seen 1/3 of the rally retraced. Given last week's softer Non-Farm Payroll data and the correction in 10-year Treasury yields (40 bps), I expect the "floor" on Gold prices to be well above the October lows—most likely in the low $1900s, high $1800s. How do we get there? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday the Fed "is not confident it has done enough to bring inflation down." In layman's terms, "We are not messing around," and that "hawkish narrative" drives Gold down there. The CME FedWatch Tool Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a December rate hike surged from 4.8% last week to 14.6% after Powell's comments. Is he "all bark, no bite," let's be serious: economic data is declining, and credit is tightening. Can he raise it one more time? Sure, but what is he accomplishing? The softening data continues into mid-2024, when the Fed should make its first interest rate cut and end 2024 at 4.55%. I expect lower Gold prices in the near term, followed by another "leg" higher into the end of the year and 2024. Taking It to the Charts Gold futures have technically disappointed after breaking the 200 (DMA) at $1983 and continue to work lower. The next support zone is $1950 down to $1936, where a close below $1936 could spark additional selling back down to our "value area" $1910-1885. While we do not see Gold challenging the October lows, much depends on the pace of a ceasefire, Fed interest rate decisions, and investor sentiment. We saw capital inflows into Precious Metals over the past three weeks, but that capital is quick to move to other asset classes, such as the Nasdaq, Bitcoin, or "risk-free" Treasury products. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Phil_Blue_Line