Gold may not shine for 2 yearsGold is undergoing Elliot wave's 4 th wave consolidation This will take equal time of 13 years of Mega 3rd wave rally. GOLD may not shine during Stagflation Economy Cycle. Smart investment in gold may be after it reaches $1045 again Shortby selvamBUpdated 335
Gold Ending diagonal?lower timeframe view. do we head a little more down until we continue the move up?Longby Benbarian2
GC! | Informative| Gold 2023-24 Perspective | BullishCOMEX:GC1! Possible Scenario: Long Evidence: Macro Economy variables, including $DXY bearish price action, inflation, and recession outlook for following years, I expect at least a 50% price jump.Longby shksprUpdated 5
Gold4.18.23 Gold: In this video I was trying to review the price action of gold and how you can have a fairly predictive way of knowing where the market might go and what that means to buyers and sellers. this is not necessarily Your signal that you must trade your strategy or be a stop and reverse trader....It's a way of knowing when the market is likely to change direction at least for a while. It's something you might do to be more objective about the price action so that you can have A sense of when the Market's going to work for you or against you if you have a trade Position. This shows you potential reversals, But I would not Necessarily make a trade decision on every reversal. However, Since you're going to be trading for the next 10 to 30 years..... it may be worth your time to go through the exercise of looking at this because it may be much more objective than arbitrary internal monologues...ie. your internal thoughts over greed and fear as opposed to with the chart is telling you. 20:01by ScottBogatin8
Gold is expensive. Don't waste it!Investing physically in most commodities is almost impossible due to operational constraints: they tend to be voluminous, expensive to store, move and insure, and can be very perishable. Most commodities investments are, therefore, made through futures contracts and therefore suffer, most of the time, from negative roll yield. However, this is not true for precious metals. Gold and silver are durable, they carry a high price tag per weight and, therefore, can be stored very cheaply in bank vaults. Overall, physical investments in gold or silver are easy and cost-efficient. When investing in gold or silver, investors have the choice between: Physical holdings using, for example, physically-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) Futures contracts (which can also be replicated in a synthetic ETP) But which one is the most efficient? When investing physically in gold, the cost of investing is known in advance. For physically-backed gold ETPs, the total expense ratio can be as low as 12 bps per year. On the contrary, when investing in futures contracts, the cost of investing is not known in advance as it is subject to a roll yield linked to the shape of the futures curve, which can change at any time. So, investors need to ask themselves ‘how often is the cost of investing in futures contracts above 12bps and how often is it below 12bps?’ The result is very clear. Over the last 15 years, a futures-based investment in gold has underperformed on average by 0.94%1 per year compared to physical investment. A lot more than 12bps! More importantly, looking at one-year holding periods, physical gold has outperformed futures-based gold 99.1%1 of the time. Even considering the 12bps of costs of a gold ETP, physical gold outperformed 97.8%1 of the time. Even on short investment periods, physical gold outperformed most of the time (89.8%1 of 3-month investment periods). Why is physical gold a more efficient investment? The shape of the futures curve drives the cost of investing in futures-based gold. In contango, investors bleed money through the roll yield. For gold futures investment to outperform physical gold in the medium term, the roll yield needs to be under 12bps per annum. The curve needs to be in a very slight contango or in backwardation. In backwardation, the investor benefits from the roll yield (instead of paying it). Unfortunately for investors in futures contracts, the gold futures curve is driven by very stable factors that lock it in contango most of the time. Looking at the long history, the average roll yield between the first and third futures for gold is -1.5% (that is, the third contract was 1.5% more expensive than the first one). The curve was in backwardation only 79 days over the 12,107 business days between January 1975 and February 2023, that is, only 0.66% of the time. When investing in gold futures, whether it’s a stand-alone gold investment or as part of a broad commodity investment (like in the Bloomberg commodity index), investors are hoping that the gold curve will remain in backwardation for a large portion of their investment period. But, in more than 50 years of history, this has never happened for periods longer than 15 days. What about silver, then? Silver futures' behaviour is very similar to gold futures. The average roll yield between the first and third futures for silver is -2%. The curve was in backwardation only 81 days between January 1975 and February 2023. Over the last 15 years, a futures-based investment in silver has underperformed on average by 1.29%1 per year compared to a physical investment. WisdomTree is the leader in Europe for commodity exposure in exchange-traded products. As such, we aim to offer our investors the most innovative strategies to invest in commodities. by aneekaguptaWTE3
GOLD FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 041723 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 1994/61.80% by fibonacci61801
GOLD COFFEE4.17.23 Follow up on gold and coffee using our indicators and spending some time on gap relationships So that we can find Reversal patterns And calculate Probabilities with more accuracy. As long as you have decent volatility you can make money as a buyer and a seller.19:48by ScottBogatin4
How Much Gold Does Your Portfolio Need?Economists make forecasts to make weathermen look good. Trying to forecast trends in complex systems is never easy. As with weather, financial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors which can make prediction akin to gambling. Time in the market beats timing the market so a far safer bet is building a diversified and informed portfolio. As mentioned in our previous paper , gold is a crucial addition to any well-diversified portfolio. Gold offers investors the benefits of resilience during crises, diversification, and low volatility while also being a good hedge against inflation. With crisis ever-present, from pandemics and geo-political conflict to financial instability and recession, uncertainty is on everyone’s lips, including central banks which bought a record 1,135 tonnes of gold last year. Central Banks have shown no signs of slowdown going into 2023, buying 74t in Jan and 52t in Feb, the strongest start to central bank buying since 2010. It is clear why, with rising global inflation due to 2 years of unprecedented QE. A decade of cheap money has its costs which are coming back to bite both consumers and central banks. This is now being played with collapsing banks and crumbling businesses. Though governments may term these exceptions, they’re the inevitable consequence of hiking rates too fast. And even though inflation has now started to cool, it is proving stubborn and the risk of recession looms. In crisis, institutions and individuals rush to gold. It’s no wonder then that gold prices spiked in March nearing an All-Time-High above USD 2,000/oz. Gold continues to trade above the key 2000 level even in April. Even now crises show no sign of slowing. Recession talks have become commonplace and phantoms of 2008 haunt with bank collapses. The world is increasingly moving towards reshoring and friendshoring, and de-dollarization is talked about more and more. It is almost inevitable that gold will break its all-time-high soon. But, buying gold is the easy part, in fact, our previous paper covered 6 Ways to Invest in Gold. Managing gold as part of a larger portfolio is more nuanced. Allocating the right amount, finding the right entry, and knowing when to cash out are all critical. This paper aims to address two questions – 1. What are the key drivers of gold prices in this decade 2. How should investors use gold in balancing portfolios to navigate turbulent times? What Propels Gold After Its All Time High? SVB and Credit Suisse pushed it to its brink. In fact, spot prices in India, Australia, and the UK sailed even above their All-Time-High. But what propels gold now? Financial Instability Was Credit Suisse the End? “The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come.” - Jamie Dimon Unfortunately, Credit Suisse was likely just a symptom of the larger problem. 2-years of near-free money has inevitably led others to make risky bets which catch up to them during periods of QT. Additionally, Credit Suisse and SVB’s collapse were both set off by an unprecedentedly aggressive rate hiking cycle. Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they try to control runaway inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Higher rates for longer increase the risks of financial instability. Stubborn Inflation and Recession Risks Stubborn inflation? Wasn’t inflation on its way down after almost a year? Yes and No. Although yearly inflation has definitely cooled in most countries from their peak last year, inflation continues to tick up month-by-month above the targets that central banks have set for themselves. It is not expected to reach below their targets even before 2025 in many countries. This is because although energy and commodity prices have cooled with demand waning, core inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. Additionally, food and energy prices are still volatile. On the back of this, recession risks remain high. Recently released FOMC meeting minutes showed that officials expect a recession in the second half of the year. A recession in many countries now seems inevitable. Gold shines during recession and high-inflation environments. High Interest Rates Wasn’t the Fed done hiking? Currently, CME’s FedWatch tool shows a ~72% chance of another 25bps hike next month despite the surprisingly low US CPI print. Does another 25bps matter? What’s more important is that 25bps is the peak rate and most central banks are calling this summit a pause and not a pivot. As such, rates will likely remain high for the remainder of 2023. Gold tends to perform well during high interest rate and risk-off environments. Escalating Tensions, Friendshoring, and De-Dollarization Last but definitely not least are central banks and their gold-buying binge. Though some of this can be explained by the ultra-high inflation. It is undeniably also driven by rising political tensions. The conflict in Ukraine continues to rage and the US extend its trade war against China with the CHIPS act. This is driving many of the largest economies to reshore and friendshore key supply chains. This also means relying less on the USD which can be weaponized by the US. De-dollarization has been underway for the last 23 years as the share of USD holdings in foreign exchange reserves has declined from 71.5% to 58.3% over the past 23 years. Current conditions make it more likely that the trend will accelerate. Gold inevitably benefits from all of this as it is one of the only assets that no other central bank can print or freeze. All of these factors will likely drive gold in the coming decade. But instead of setting a price target, investors can be prudent and methodical by properly allocating it as part of a larger portfolio. Using Gold in a Portfolio From 2000 until now, the following portfolios would deliver: Since 2000, gold has been the best performing asset out of the 3 main components of a basic portfolio – Large Cap stocks (SPY), Treasury Bonds (10Y), and Gold. Gold price has risen 609% compared to SPY at +193%. Investing in 10-year maturity treasury bonds would have netted investors 110% during these 23 years. As such, larger portfolio allocation towards gold would have yielded investors far more during this period. However, this comes at the downside of higher volatility. Gold has had an average 12-month rolling volatility of 15.8% over the last 23 years, slightly higher than SPY’s 14%. Still, not all volatility is bad, especially if the returns outweigh the risk. Volatility to the upside can be beneficial to investors. In order to measure the returns from the portfolio after accounting for higher volatility-associated risk, investors can measure the risk-adjusted returns using the Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio. Sharpe Ratio measures the amount of excess return generated by taking on additional volatility-related risk. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the portfolio is performing relative to its risk. The figure below contains the Sharpe Ratio for each of the portfolios across the last 23 years. Since each year had a different risk-free rate due to changing monetary policy, the Sharpe ratios vary for every year and there are periods during which gold-heavy portfolios have highest Sharpe ratios and others where it has the lowest. This highlights gold's sensitivity to changes in monetary policy. Sortino Ratio also measures risk-adjusted returns like the Sharpe Ratio however it only considers the risk of downside volatility. In other words, it measures return for every unit of downside risk. The figure below contains the Sortino Ratio for each of the portfolios. A key difference between the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios can be seen in the readings for 2009. Sharpe Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio is the lowest in 2009 due to high volatility in gold prices. However, since this was volatility to the upside, the Sortino Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio in 2009 is the highest. In 2023, a Gold heavy portfolio has performed the best and has the highest Sharpe and Sortino Ratio due to gold's relative overperformance amid the banking crisis. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description. Editors' picksEducationby mintdotfinance4494
GOLDi believe gold should be start correction range and then continue up trend and break supply at the short time---------- have down trend at the long time----------- have up trendShortby meetingtrade2
Gold dipped but trades along with ascending trendlineGold extends further towards the upside but fall towards to the ascending trend line later on the week. Upside bias remains unless price breaks below the 2000 region which can potentially drag price towards the neckline support at 1940 region. by TrainingTrader0
GOLD FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 041523 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 2007/61.80%by fibonacci61802
Gold Gold is showing a double top structure --> if it breaks 60k expecting --> 58500 as next supportby Trade_with_yash0
Gold going for correction.Gold has broken to the pattern on lower side and closed bearish on daily timeframe. More downside in coming days. Target 58500. Stay safe and trade safe. Note: The above is not a trade recommendation. Consult your financial advisor before taking any.Shortby The_Trader140
Gold In a Longterm Wave 5 Uptrend DXY weakness translates into strong gold and now with fears of dollar losing reserve status and Russia buying record amount of Gold, there is a confluence of indicators suggesting now is a good time to be long gold over the next year or twoLongby TradingMula3
GCM3 High: 2060.00 Low: 1983.00 HigherWeekly Kickoff levels are longer timeframe levels where we believe longer time traders will adjust inventories.Longby TopstepOfficial2
Gold at Yearly R1 pivot pointGC1! this past week, ran into strong resistance at the Yearly r1 pivot point. The BIGGEST reversals happen at the yearly pivot points!by PivotalPivots3
Gold bell curve balance profile corrective areasBalance profile show by bell curve volume profile indicator in corrective waveLongby tofinse1
Beautiful gold trades with psychosisCheck this out, we have some beautiful trades predicted. after the breaks the lines become supportsby Psycho_1-11
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.13.23 ES GC1! There is one part of this video that was sloppy.... I tried to insert an extension on the gold chart. I hadn't really looked at it since yesterday and certain things happened that I didn't realize ...And I got caught off guard as I was running out of time. I will make the clarity on the next video and you will understand what that issue was.... which is not a big deal as long as you make accurate use of your tools. from a learning point of view if you're new to my videos I really screwed it up for you because you don't know enough of what I'm doing.... sorry about that... I will make it up on the next video. Details do matter!20:00by ScottBogatin5
gold mcx sellraising wedge pattern forming after breakdown selling could be possible Shortby imrahulshah22
Bobby's homework assignment part 24.12.23 We started with a look at coffee which made a new high On a swing that went to the top of a range box where we would look for a reversal. Then we took a quick look at cold that reached its HKEX:4 ,000 target.19:53by ScottBogatin6
Gold: Shaken, not stirred 🍸Like James Bond, gold seems to prefer shaking to stirring, as its recent movements suggest. In the course of wave B in turquoise, the metal has been bucketed about quite thoroughly and still has got some room left to expand the current ascent. As soon as wave B in turquoise is finished, though, gold should turn downwards and resume the overarching descent by developing wave (4) in yellow. However, there is a 35% chance that the precious metal could use the turquoise zone between TADAWUL:1830 and HKEX:1709 as an early exit, completing wave alt.2 in turquoise and shifting upwards from there.by MarketIntel2
GOLD Futures WeeklyGOLD Weekly Analysis: It has been trading in range for 980 days = 980 /365= 2.68 years approx Previously trend has been in upward momentum and then it went into consolidation(sideways) or can be considered accumulation as it is bullish rectangle. Ranges are good to trade as markets are in equilibrium and can brake either side but here the probability is high towards upside due to bullish rectangle Also from point A to B there was double bottom with the divergence on RSI but the bottom didnt break and RSI leads the price back to the range top to point C to $2078. From point C to D a wedge formation within the range and bullish divergence on RSI = reversal movement and moves the price from low of $1700 to $2040. Point is RSI has been effective in gauging the strength of direction. Now if the rectangle breaks then the next target from range brake will be 2500 Based on FIB projection first target will be (2300-2040=260) % Return = 260/2040= 12.74% Second target will be (2500-2040=460) % Return = 460/2040 = 22.54% By the time there is no divergence on RSI and price brakes the last 2 highs 2078 and we have some green candles visible to support the direction as well, longs can be initiated above 2080 to chase 2500 level. Remember this is weekly timeframe will take atleast a year to perform and the most important is SL:1640 Longby SMS141