Gold has a Great chance to cross 2570 Points / 100% Approx TodayIf you invest right now there is a pretty chance for gold to increase in buy region.
My yesterday analyses were predicted right as well.
Best of luck
TGF1! trade ideas
High Probable SHORT from 4Hr (78.5% Fib. Level) for the HOUSE..?COMEX:GC1!
"When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you'll be successful. It's not about craving success like you crave food or water, it's about needing it like air. That urgency, that necessity—that's when you break through." -Eric Thomas
We coming out on TOP nothing less than that! Here I have developed a High Probable SHORT for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE here on GOLD and below I'm going to break down what I want to see develop before we enter the market. Let's get to it!!
1) On the Daily TF I am starting to notice just ever so slightly exhaustion from BUYERS to the upside....
2) 4Hr TF we have a rising eR/LQ Trendline that buyers have been respecting very heavily. Also we have a smaller Descending eR/LQ Trendline that sellers have been respecting as well. We are currently trading inside of the last 4Hr Last High ($2570.5) and 4Hr Last Low ($2506.5). I drew out the Fib. from these price levels and price is currently trading around mitigated pricing of 70.5% ($2,551.5)
3) Now what I'll be looking for to enter the market SHORT is bulls continue to push price higher into the HTF 4Hr Supply Zone Candle stick... The Killzone level is 78.5% ($2,556.5) which is also near the 50% EQ level of the overall 4Hr Supply Zone and also near the descending eR/LQ Trendline that sellers have created to the Downside....
4) If and when Bulls can continue to push higher into premium pricing 78.5% Fib. Level I then will drop down to the LTF 5-15m and wait for a confirmed 15m Bear CHoCh. Once we can get this confirmation I will then look to enter SHORT and target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($2538.5)...
5) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Gold shows signs of exhaustion at its record highGold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this timeframe. The bias is to fade into retracements within yesterday's range to target the 2540/45 range, near the 50-bar EMA and HVN (high-volume node).
This is a Volume Spread Analysis Wyckoff Spring - Bullish Gold In this ten minute video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" and Fund Manager, Gavin Holmes, explains the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis trade set up for a bullish run called "Wyckoff Spring, Test, Accumulation phase one". This is combined with the Price and Volume indicators called "Smart Money Indicator" or SMI which analyzes just price action and volume, where Wyckoff VSA analyzes volume, price spread or range on the bar but most importantly the closing price on that bar with confirmation shown on the close of the very next price bar. Gavin's book is available on www.amazon.com by typing in the search engine either Gavin's name, Gavin Holmes or the book title "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money".
We wish You all at TradingView Good Fortune and Constant profits.
With best wishes,
The TradeGuider Trading Team
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thu 08292024 - Sideway & Big move NYPrice opened within the previous value area, suggesting sideways movement within this range during the Asian and London sessions. With news expected at 19:30, anticipate a significant move, likely continuing upwards after a major sweep of the bottom.
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way.
gold
comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral.
Invalidation is above 2570.
short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
How to ride trend and exit positions using Shlionz MAsBuy Signal:
Trend Start: Buy when EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200.
Pullback Entry: Buy when the price pulls back to MidBB or EMA 50 in an uptrend, with WMA 10 crossing above MidBB.
Confirmation: EMA 5 crossing above EMA 10 (WMA 10) can serve as additional confirmation for entry.
Sell Signal:
Trend Reversal: Sell when EMA 50 crosses below EMA 200.
Pullback Exit: Sell if WMA 10 crosses below MidBB or EMA 50 after a pullback.
Confirmation: EMA 5 crossing below EMA 10 (WMA 10) can signal a potential exit or further downside.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Below MidBB or EMA 50.
Take-Profit: At key resistance levels or based on a risk-to-reward ratio.
Implementation Summary.
Buy Entry:
EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200.
Price pulls back to MidBB or EMA 50.
WMA 10 crosses above MidBB.
EMA 5 crosses above WMA 10 for confirmation.
Sell Exit:
EMA 50 crosses below EMA 200.
Price closes below WMA 10 and MidBB.
EMA 5 crosses below WMA 10 for confirmation.
Incorporating EMA 5 adds a faster-moving element to your strategy, helping you to react more quickly to short-term changes and providing additional confirmation signals.
This is distribution starting in Gold - No Demand explainedIn video four of our TradingView educational video series we study the pullback in Gold as discussed in video three, and this started on Monday 26th August 2024.
In this video we show a very key principle in the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis and SMART Money Indicator technology called "No Demand" with SMI confirmation.
Any questions get Gavin's book on Amazon, "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" or email LAURA@TRADEGUIDER.COM for a free PDF of the same book.
Mcx Gold currently at risk on fallMcx Gold currently at risk on fall,as resistance appears here on top.which form a double top n now market may react it as fall.
Overall if market breaks this resistance ,it may go way beyond above 73000-74000+
Or else below Resistance (72200-72600),market will fall towards 70000.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls bought the first pullback and I expect bears to try again. Market went sideways which shows strength by the bulls to keep it above 2500. Next week will be important because so far the highest monthly close was 2472 and a monthly close above 2500 would confirm the breakout again. Bears need consecutive bear bars below 2500 and bulls a daily close above 2550. Neutral going into next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550.
comment : Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2550
bull case: Bulls raised their odds of this breakout being real last week. Next week is their do or die moment for this. It’s either break above 2550 and get a daily close above or fail again and trade back down to the lower bull wedge or even 2300. I do think 2540-2570 is a dead zone for trading long. If we get near 2520-2530 I consider buying but not above. Odds currently favor the bulls slightly.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. If you are short Gold right now, don’t come to me hoping for bear porn. I’m long past that phase in Gold. Do I still think this is overvalued and can crash below 2000 again? Bet. Will this save your underwater shorts? Hell naw. Get out now or latest at 2571.
Invalidation is above 2571.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2537 and now we are at 2546. Bulls got above 2550 but big rejections only. Neutral outlook was perfect since we closed 9 points above last week.
short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570.
Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2570. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Added bull wedge trend line and measured move target #1.
Wyckoff VSA/SMI Result - Accumulation Stages 3 and 4 CompleteIn this short short follow up video produced by Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, we follow on from yesterdays video of Gold demonstrating how Smart Money accumulate an instrument based on Supply and Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort Vs Result. We see accumulation phases 1,2,3, and 4 completed with 5 on its way.
Smart Money Indicator confirms all the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis set ups for long positions.
Soybean oil gold8. 23.24 it's very early in the morning so I'm going to make this as short as I can so I can go back to bed which is why I'm writing this very large sentence because you need to write enough stuff or this won't upload. the soybean oil is still a long trade even though it corrected 50% it looks like it's going to go higher and in the video I show you on the daily chart where it really has to go before you see an acceleration higher.... but it's a decent trade and just keep your stop below the bottom and give the market some time to move higher at the very worst if he gets stopped out it's a small loss.... but generally with patterns like this you don't want to drag your stop higher because they'll just take you out of noise and then you lose the opportunity. gold could have been a very profitable trade..... actually a number of Trades using a 4-hour chart and following how the market moves. I think the necessary psychology to look at patterns like this and to make relatively short but profitable trades is that you can't be committed to just one side of the market or the other. The market trades from buyers to sellers and sellers to buyers. It's easy to get trapped in your trades because you think you want to be a buyer and then your brain basically reduces the . when you sellers to adversaries because you just don't want to run into sellers if you're long.
Strategic Moves by Institutional Buyers Signal Bullish ProspectsGold commenced 2024 on a strong footing, exhibiting significant upward momentum during the first quarter. The accumulation phase initiated by institutional buyers stretched from January to mid-February, beginning at the S3 support level of $2,075 per troy ounce. The upward movement propelled gold prices to the R5 resistance level of $2,503 per ounce by the second week of April, marking the onset of the second quarter. This peak prompted profit-taking, stabilizing the price within a range between $2,365 and $2,503 per ounce.
Throughout this period, it appears that institutional buyers were actively building positions, likely in anticipation of driving prices higher. This strategic positioning is evident from the price consolidation between the R3 and R4 resistance levels for nearly five weeks during the third quarter. The persistence of prices within this range underlines a robust buying interest.
A critical breakout occurred when prices surpassed the R4 level at $2,503, which had previously acted as a formidable resistance point for several months. This breakout is a strong indication of continued dominance by institutional buyers in the gold market. Currently, with prices holding above the R4 level, the market is poised to target the R5 level at $2,605 for the third quarter, with potential for further ascension in Q4 of 2024.
Given these dynamics, traders are advised to capitalize on any pullbacks towards the R4 level, as these dips present favorable buying opportunities within a bullish gold market framework.
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower.
comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500.
Invalidation is above 2550.
short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
Gold Wash-out Low after Flag Apex. Need To See $2540+ On Close.Watch this video if you are trading gold. With a perfect Flag formation and a deep washout-low rotation, we need to see Gold rally back up to near $2540 to reach the Apex level again.
Any continued price weakness will show Gold may be attempting a deeper pullback after reaching $2570.
I believe Gold will settle very well into the end of the day. Possibly even reaching $2550+.
But, this is news-driven. This move is related to the geopolitical events taking place in Taiwan and other areas of the world.
Buckle up. Gold wants to move above $2602 - but it will be a struggle from now on.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Oil gold8.22.24 in this video I talk about oil which is a reversal pattern to go long but I would be looking for it to possibly reverse and create a significant possibility of the market moving lower. to clarify this I think the market is a long trade for oil but I would be looking for specific patterns that I described in the video which would change my strategy and favor the short side of the market. gold made an all-time high and I stated at that time that the market is likely to reverse and go lower because of that 2 bar reversal but I was concerned that it was very likely for the market to range and you need to trade arranging Market differently than a trending Market. in addition you're asking for trouble if you're going to Short a market at the all-time high because the markets show the buyers at the all-time high and so if the market continues higher you can lose a lot of money. on the other hand markets like this normally range for a while and when a market is ranging you treated differently than a trending Market and this is a way for you to trade the market as a ranging market and not a trending Market and you use the upper and lower margin of the range box to look for buyers or sellers which I described in the video. much of the time when you use a range box you expect that it will transition and go higher or lower by the range of the initial box. if you can't think in terms of range boxes and distinguish them as being different from a trend it makes it very hard to handle markets like gold that made an all-time high. in many ways looking for the range box which is exactly what happened it gives you time to make a trade decision without rushing and without impulsively making trading decisions that are ill conceived and likely to cause damage to your account.
Gold futures: possible path to $3k - down then upIt looks like wave 3 is about to reach its climax soon as EWO indicator shows Bearish divergence with the rising price.
Wave 4 down could drop to the valley of smaller wave 4 around $2,285 and touch the downside of very beautiful uptrend. It should stay above the top of wave 1 at $2,085 otherwise the wave count could be invalidated.
Wave 5 in commodities is usually extended, $3k target doesn't look impossible though.
