NQ dip expectation for no apparent reason (almost certainly not NQ has a good 35 minute window to make the ultimate fall sub 21400
UNF1! trade ideas
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule
Key Themes to Monitor This Week
Geopolitical Risks
Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions.
There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market.
Trade War and Trade Deals
There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements.
FED Week
This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled.
Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance?
Expectations for the Week Ahead
NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher.
Key Levels to Watch
• yVAH: 22,690.50
• R2: 22,510
• R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50
• May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25
• yVPOC: 21,660
Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious
Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range.
Example Trade Idea 1
• Entry: 22,000
• Stop: 21,930
• Target: 22,322
• Risk: 70 pts
• Reward: 322 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation
If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week.
Example Trade Idea 2
• Entry: 21,672
• Stop: 21,600
• Target: 22,000
• Risk: 72 pts
• Reward: 328 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
________________________________________
Glossary
• VPOC: Volume Point of Control
• VA: Value Area
• VAL: Value Area Low
• VAH: Value Area High
• VP: Volume Profile
• AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
• Y: Yearly
• pWk: Previous Week
11/6/25 MNQ BREAKDOWNNew dealing range marked and price touched deep OTE and iFVG , I got 2 confirmations (one stone two bird) and price heading toward BSL 22,002... But I expect a move retracement at NY open and heads towards the BSL
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure)
The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone.
We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with:
Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions
Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200
A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback
The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal
🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3)
Commercials (Smart Money):
+4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion
Non-Commercials (Speculators):
–2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction
Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance
📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials.
📆 3. Seasonality
June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg)
10Y average still leans bullish
⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes
📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3.
📰 4. Macro Calendar
High-impact USD week:
CPI – Wed, June 11
PPI – Thu, June 12
These will be critical to:
Validate the disinflation narrative
Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov
📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises.
⚙️ Operational Outlook
✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation):
🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure
❌ Invalid below 21,350
🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion):
🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200
🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone
🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
Intro to my python-tradingview strategyAfter three years working on multiple trading strategies, I decided to share my experience and my trades. But before going live, I think I need to explain the roadmap I’ve followed so far.
I initially started coding my strategy in PineScript, which is a powerful tool. It allowed me to simply code my ideas and turn them into trading signals using alerts and conditions. I’m sure you’ve already watched dozens of YouTube videos on how to use webhooks and TradingView to send signals to your trading platform. Anyway, I began developing my strategy in Pine and used webhooks to connect to Tradovate. I went live after a few months of testing—which, of course, was my first mistake. In January 2022, my algo went live. I traded on a strategy that was just tuned on seen data, manually flipping parameters to maximize PnL—a purely overfit model—and I went live with real money. Anyway, the first month was positive and I thought I was the best trader in the world. I even told my wife we were going to be rich, like nothing could stop us. But after three months of trading, I lost—obviously. It was a bummer, but I knew where the problem was: lack of proper backtesting.
So that was the moment I moved my code to Python. It took me a couple of weeks to build an end-to-end backtesting framework in Python. I used Backtrader as a backtesting tool, which is awesome. I’ll have some videos soon to explain more about that. Anyway, moving my code to Python gave me the luxury of backtesting and creating rolling walk-forward optimizations, allowing me not only to refine my strategies but also to test them on 5–6 years of historical data.
Long story short, working with Python enabled me to come up with five different strategies for NQ and ES. I plan to share those trades, but before that, I thought I should share my journey first.
Please leave comments and follow my channel. More to come.
NASDAQ (NQ) ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKI've been studying NQ & others and want to share my analysis. Trading involves probabilities, so it's essential to be confident and prepared. Study the market thoroughly before trading with real money.
Let's test strategies this week. You may use a live account if you have capital, and manage your stop losses carefully. Next week, I'll provide more details on entry points and stop losses. Wait for trades at specified levels and avoid positions in the middle to minimize losses. Be patient and trade from one edge to the other.
Good luck and make money.
For one-on-one sessions: $20k per person. You'll learn weekly, monthly, and yearly calculations. Weekly subscriptions are also available for $500 per person.
Disclaimer:
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets provides personal advice.
Nasdaq Leading Equities HigherThe equity markets are seeing higher prices today with the Nasdaq leading the way higher trading up near 2.5% on the day while the S&P and Russell both traded over 1% as well. There was steep selling pressure in equities to end the week last Friday due to additional tensions in the Middle East, and the markets are seeing a strong rebound today, especially on the technology front. While the equities were strong today, Crude Oil had the opposite effect, with a strong push higher on Friday and strong selling pressure on the session today trading down near 2.5%.
Looking ahead for the week, the big ticket item will be the Fed Meeting and interest rate decision on Wednesday the 18th, where the market is pricing in another pause on interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool, it is pricing in the first rate cut of the year to come in September at a 56% probability, which has continued to get pushed back later into the year with all of the uncertainty and volatility in the market. Traders will be more concerned with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after the decision about the future plans of the Fed for the remainder of the year.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Potential Head and Shoulders PatternHow to identify head and shoulders patterns?
We’ll use the current example from the Nasdaq or the US markets. We can quite clearly observe that a potential head and shoulders formation is developing. This means that if the price breaks below the neckline, we may see a deeper correction from the April low.
I will go through the rules on how to identify a head and shoulders formation.
We will also cover how to recognize when the pattern is invalid — meaning the market may continue pushing above its all-time high.
Finally, we’ll discuss how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation.
Let’s first go through the rules of identifying head and shoulders with rules stated.
Next, how to recognize when the pattern is invalid, the market continues pushing above its all-time high. The key is in the closing price above the all-time high.
Lastly, how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation.
Of course, we can wait for the break to come as a confirmation, but usually I would like to be a little more active than being passive. So this is just for your reference. It may not be for everyone.
This is where I always get into its micro view by first acknowledging where is the macro is, which we had just discussed. Please refer to the following video:
So what do you think that the market likely or unlikely to fulfill this head and shoulders set-up?
I’d like to hear your thoughts on this.
Micro Nikkei Futures
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
Nasdaq Futures: Tariff Talk, Tech Fatigue Turn TideHaving surged more than 20% from the April lows, we could be nearing a turning point for Nasdaq 100 futures.
Bullish momentum is showing signs of shifting lower, while Wednesday’s inverted hammer candle—on a day when tech stocks were given every excuse to rally thanks to the soft U.S. inflation report and subsequent decline in Treasury yields—warns the rally may be running out of steam.
With Donald Trump talking about setting firm tariff rates for individual nations within the next two weeks, we’re already seeing signs of weakness in futures, bolstering the prospect for a three-candle evening star pattern being completed. Sitting in a rising wedge, directional risks seem to be skewing lower.
If the price breaks and closes beneath wedge support, it would create a setup where shorts could be established with a stop above Wednesday’s high to protect against a resumption of the bullish trend.
21436 is a minor support level that screens as an initial target, although 20800—where the price bounced strongly from on May 23—makes for a more appealing case from a risk-reward perspective.
A push and close above 21969—a minor resistance level established earlier this year—would invalidate the bearish bias.
Good luck!
DS
Ether Leads Markets HigherThe crypto markets move to the upside continued in today's session, with Ether futures leading the way higher trading up over 8% while Bitcoin rose nearly 1.5%. There has been significant strength from the Crypto markets over the last few weeks, and Ether is now trading right near the 50% retracement mark from the December 2024 high price when looking at a daily chart. Along with Bitcoin and Ether, the Solana market also saw a sharp rise over 5% on the session while XRP saw slight losses.
Outside of the Crypto markets, the Equity Indices traded slightly higher near 0.5% with Tesla leading the Nasdaq higher on the session. This is the third session in a row with a new higher high price for the S&P and could support a strong market at these levels. There have also been continued talks between President Trump and China about tariff policy, and the outcomes could add significant volatility to markets globally when resolved.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
push up nasdaqwe can see that the market has properly push to the upside, looking for a break of range.
entry is in blue, and correspoinds to daily levels that has shown rejection to the upside.
possible drop in the first minutes, and then a move to the upside.
entry in blue. stop in red and target in green.
HAVE FUN
TSP
Conditions For A Pullback In The NASDAQ 100 Are PresentAll the conditions for a reversal in the NASDAQ 100 appear to be in place, but just because these conditions are present doesn’t mean a reversal must occur. The most obvious condition is the presence of a rising wedge, which formed over the past month and broke on Friday. Whether this pattern entirely unfolds remains to be seen, but there is supporting evidence suggesting it may.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index, has clearly been trending lower since peaking on May 19, even as the price of the NASDAQ 100 has continued to rise—a classic bearish divergence.
Over the same period, we’ve observed the NASDAQ rising on decreasing levels of volume—another characteristic of a rising wedge pattern. Then, on Friday, the index broke below the lower boundary of the wedge. The wedge measures approximately 7% from its bottom to the top, suggesting that if the pattern fully plays out, the NASDAQ could decline back to around 20,350. It is also worth noting that there is a gap on the chart at 20,150, which could potentially be filled during such a pullback.
However, that doesn’t mean a decline will be straightforward, because, for now at least, the NASDAQ has found support at the 20-day moving average at 21,514. The NASDAQ will therefore need to break through this strong support level for a deeper decline to occur. In fact, the NASDAQ has not traded below its 20-day moving average since April 23.
While all the conditions for a break from the NASDAQ’s rising wedge are present and appear on the verge of unfolding, the market still has much to prove before the bearish scenario can fully materialize.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/13/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21915.75
- PR Low: 21861.75
- NZ Spread: 120.5
No key scheduled economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/13)
- Session Open ATR: 389.53
- Volume: 66K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -4.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21847.75
- PR Low: 21823.25
- NZ Spread: 55.0
No key scheduled economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 6/10)
- Session Open ATR: 393.42
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 269K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -3.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ - (FVG) - Fair Value GAPOn NQ , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 21685 .
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
