$3200 targetLast month saw a mostly engulfed candle for #gold futures.
I've just noticed that gold likes like 50% moves at a time during bull markets 👍.
GD1! trade ideas
Gold's potential to push higher todayGold's potential to push higher today can be attributed to a few converging factors despite recent volatility. The metal saw significant downside pressure yesterday, likely due to profit-taking after recent highs, yet it remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Notably, tensions in the Middle East continue to attract investors to gold as a hedge, providing support amid concerns of an escalation in conflict
KITCO
KITCO
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Another factor involves broader financial market conditions. The dollar remains strong, which often puts pressure on gold, but the likelihood of more dovish moves from the Federal Reserve in the coming months is supporting the metal’s upward trajectory. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect continued central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, alongside possible Fed rate cuts, which could sustain demand for gold as a hedge against fiat currency volatility
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Given these dynamics, today’s upward movement in gold could be seen as a response to both immediate geopolitical fears and a continued expectation of supportive monetary policy, potentially leading gold toward further gains in the near term.
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope.
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken)
key levels: 2650 - 2800
bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800+
→ Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week.
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend.
And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people:
1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and
2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs.
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
First trade toodayFed meeting: If the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes, it could weaken the dollar, which supports gold.
Geopolitical uncertainty: Rising global tensions often push investors toward gold as a safe haven.
Technical level: prices break and hold above the $2,800 level, it would signal a major bullish move
Why To Buy Gold In 3 StepsLearning how to buy gold was a big challenge
because i didn't know the right time to actually buy it
It looks simple at first especially when you
Listen to some financial market gurus that just
say “Buy Gold, dont worry about the price, because its
a huge against inflation.”
But what if you want to make moeny from the
price action?
You may be thinking,
“Its not possible to make money from the price action”
But the truth is its very much possible to make
a trae from the gold price action.
Here is what i learned:
1. Gold is a protection against inflation
2. Gold performs better than the stock market
3. Gold keeps your buying power
Now if you are just beginning at buying Gold
then you may buy at the top, which is not a cool
place to start from but if you want to learn how to buy
Price the right way then keep reading to understand the strategy i use.
• Gold Buying Strategy
The strategy to buying gold is really not that hard.
Because remember you want to buy it
in order to proit from the price action right?
So maybe you are thinking,
“If only i could make so much money
from the Gold price action and not worry about
storage fees, and delivery fees from physical gold”
Thats even the more reason why you have to learn how to buy
the gold price action right now.
Thats why i use the Rocket booster strategy
The rocket booster strategy is a trend following indicator
this strategy is very simple and yet very powerful
at the same time.
What you need to do is try to understand
the moving averages of the last 50 days of the
price of the asset you are looking at,
Then you need to try to understand the moving price average
of the last 200 days.Then after that you need to
understand the gap up in the price action.
• How The Gap Up In Price Action Happens
The gap up in price action is a very important
step to really think about especailly when you
are looking at the gold price.
You may be thinking
“What if the 50 Moving Average crosses above the
200 Moving average? Isnt that part of the
rocket booster strategy?”
Listen this past week i saw a stock price
that followed the rocket booster strategy
and it was trending on social media heavy.
When i checked on it today i realised that
the price of this particular stock had crashed!
“What the hell happend?”
I thought to myself. This is not crowd pyschology.
Just because a stock is trending on social media
does not give you the green light to trade it.
Also you have to enter the price action
before the gap.Now if you want ro enter after the
Gap then thats up to you,But if you want to follow
the exact strategy its has to be before the gap.
• Why Buying Before The Gap Up Or Rally Up Is Important
Listen in trading they are a bunch of theories
some say buy before the rally some say before
during the price rally.
While otehr will a fiancial expert to wait for
a hot tip.Sadly even after that hot tip.
You will need the confidence of a bull to
Pull the trigger.Trading is a mental game.
You re playing this game with a bunch people
that sadly dont even make the market move at all
Now are there some trading pocket opportunities
that involve pumps and dumps..yes they are.
But remember right now we are looking
at the price of gold.
You may be thinking,
“Gold price action is very boring...why are
we addressing this?”
Because the market is very quiet right now
but you ttrading journey never stops you have to learn more
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer:
Trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not
please risk managment and profit taking strategies.
Initiated a short position in GOLD, successfully reached target Gold may show bullish momentum at today’s open due to several key factors:
Safe-Haven Demand: Rising inflation or economic instability often drives investors toward gold, bolstering its appeal.
Weaker Dollar: A softer dollar makes gold more attractive to international buyers, supporting price gains.
Interest Rate Outlook: Speculation around potential rate cuts or pauses makes holding gold more favorable, reducing its opportunity cost.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Tensions or instability in global markets can increase demand for gold as a safe asset.
Technical Factors: A recent break above resistance or strong support levels can trigger technical buying, reinforcing an uptrend.
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800.
gold
comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 2750 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon.
Invalidation is below 2760.
bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months.
Invalidation is above 2810.
short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
Scenario GOLD Maybe a short situation on gold, my analysis starts with a double top that formed around the price of 2770, according to this scenario, this double top could be considered the head of the head-shoulder formation, and as I have drawn, I am waiting for the price to fall to the level of 2560
goldthesis is long, invalidated if unable to hold above pdc at 2755. AM BSL taken out already this afternoon. Gap as been filled from yesterday. 2757.6 will be the telltale if we want to continue to push towards 2760, and London BSL toward all time high. If AM BSL is unable to hold then look to short toward AM SSL AND ASIA SSL. Daily was able to defend 10/25 lows wicking up creating another doji, also an inside bar. We stay in range until we break above 2760.86 or below. The bearish marubozu on 10/23 has had us trading inside a daily bar since then.
Weekly Forex Forecast OCT. 28: BUY GOLD | XAUUSD!This weekly forecast is for Oct 28 - Nov 1st.
Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of the highlighted Weekly and Daily +FVGs confirm the bullish order flow. Buys are in order.
I will be avoiding sell setups in this market.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
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