Technical and digital analysisWe notice that we are in a correction to the upside, and there is an increase in the buying momentum, and we wait for the selling momentum to weaken in the correction, and we buy
GF1! trade ideas
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2550
bull case: Bulls printed a new ath. They finally want their breakout above and much higher prices. All patterns are against them and the odds obviously also. I would not look for longs above 2500. If they could break above 2550 and any pullback would stay above 2530, their chances of another leg up would be decent.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears see the trading range since April and the nested bull wedge on lower time frames and want a reversal down to at least 2430 again. They absolutely need to close this month below 2500 or the breakout above could actually happen and market would have to find new resistance, which could be much much higher than 2550. As of now market is almost making only perfect two legged moves inside the trading range and bulls just had their second. Market favors a reversal if bears come around on Monday.
Invalidation is above 2550.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2473 and now we are at 2537. Neutral outlook.
short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the bear trend line.
8.18.2024 Gold Extended To ATHsGold has extended to all time highs. It has broken through out top zone, so we no longer have a top zone as resistance.
Drew a channel on the chart that it may turn at. We will need to see a change in structure (Lower Highs/Lows) in order to short it, back to out previous zone it had broken.
SELL GOLD RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOWOANDA:XAUUSD Gold is at a historical high. That means retail FOMO is starting. The hunt is on.
#Gold Closes at All High Time Why do you think #Gold is $2546? 🚀 It's all about anticipating the future and positioning early! What's driving your long-term outlook? #Investing #Gold #MarketTrends #PreciousMetals #FinancialForecasting"
GOLD possible REVERSAL Ideea As reaching the psychological level of 2500, the past few weeks that was a bigger consolidation, now it made a breakthrough, but closed back inside the box. Tho it looks very bullish, sentiment is also bullish, but i fear a new ATH between 2500-2600 and from there to retest the 2100 level , before reaching the 2800 awaited level. Even on Daily it closed inside the box.
I am waiting a sign that will give me a reason for a short, but i watch those 2 levels closely because i see it a bit overextended.
Gold Potential wave countFor this wave count to be accurate wave 3 needs to get going soon. Today was a good start. But we need to see some follow through next week. Otherwise there's something else going on.
GC entered consolidationThe Gold market is in a curious state. The once volatile GC contract has settled into a seemingly tranquil trading range between $2400 and $2500. Volume has dwindled, creating an eerie silence in what was once a bustling marketplace. But could this calm before the storm be a golden opportunity for savvy traders?
A strategy known as a "short strangle" is catching the eye of many. This involves betting on price stability by selling both call and put options. With low volatility, the potential rewards can be enticing. However, as with all investments, there's a risk: a sudden market upheaval could lead to substantial losses.
Is the Gold market about to erupt from its slumber? Or will it continue its peaceful slumber, rewarding those who dare to bet on boredom? Only time will tell. But one thing is clear: the current market conditions have created a unique landscape for traders who are both brave and knowledgeable.
8.16.2024 Holding Gold LongRight now we are holding out Gold trade runners on Long until we start to get bearish confirmation that it may be reversing.
It is at a 4hr down trend line as well as our gray zone is up above it that is based off of a 4hr swing high.
Enjoy!
XAUUSD: Spotted an important bearish moveHi traders, I have spotted a significant bearish move from the resistance area of 2,471.90 to the support level of 2,322.10. Trader Active
XAUUSD: Spotted an important bearish moveHi traders, I have spotted a significant bearish move from the resistance area of 2,471.90 to the support level of 2,322.10. Trader Active
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Insane price action tbh. Technically lower lows and lower highs but 40 points down and then 30 points up is also something special. I do think the 2519 highs can hold but it’s only reasonable to be neutral while the market oscillates that hard around 2500.
comment: Neutral after today but market is still contracting. Lower highs and higher lows means market is undecided and the triangle is big enough for another 5-10 days inside it. Bears have a reasonable argument that the 2519 high can hold and we are in the upper third of the triangle, shorts are favored.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls prevented the climactic sell off for 40 points and retraced most of it. They need a higher high above 2510 to retest 2520. 1h 20ema is completely flat. Not more magic to it right now.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears are statistically favored for shorts in the upper third of the trading range. That’s about it for now. They need a 1h close below 2490 to test 2480 again and then hope for follow through down.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 2510 and bearish below 2480 but just for scalps.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 2510 was good for many days now and continues to be so.
Gold Ripper Rally Set For 8-16 into 8-20 Targeting $2575-$2650Have you been following my research on GOLD?
This next move will likely be a very strong Ripper-Rally where Gold will break through the dual Flag Apex and move dramatically higher over the next 5-10+ days.
I will let this video tell you all you need to know.
Remember, watch my Gold Dual-Leg Rally video too.
I wonder what the "driver" of this rally in Gold will be?
US-Dollar?
Foreign Markets?
Some political or geo-political news?
Something will send Gold upward $75-$100+ over the next 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT from WEEKLY RESISTANCE $2,500...?COMEX:GC1!
“Without education, you’re not going anywhere in this world.” -MalcomX
Yoooo Let's get to work!!! Here in this video I have developed a HIGH Probable SHORT for us to take if we can get the break N Closure underneath Weekly Resistance Level $2,500.00!
This will be a play I want to see confirmed for RISK on the 1Hr TF N Below... If and when we can get the 1HR candle stick to push into the 1Hr unmitigated Demand zone just slightly below and close underneath WEEKLY RESISTANCE $2,500.00 I'm going to play the retest N GO SHORT!!
1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : 540 Support Set For RallyPlease watch the other morning video I created before the markets opened.
I suggested the SPY would move downward and try to find support between 539-540.
It looks like the SPY has established a low just above 540 in early trading and I believe this low may have set the BASE PRICE for the day.
Obviously, price could continue to push down into the 539 area, but, it promising on my charts that price is contracting, pulling downward a bit, in the midst of a SPY Cycle Pattern RALLY day.
Now, we need to see how the RALLY is going to setup and if we are going to attempt to move above 545-546 today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
fundamental and technical support for $GLD and $BTCHave been advising my boss to long gold and bitcoin since the price was $2000 and $38000. My next buy would be when price retrace back to around MA30 for Gold and MA100 for BTC weekly basis to get better R/R.
Fundamentally:
long term weakening of US government credibility.
1. hard asset monetary inflation due to fiscal burden that yellen have to keep the collateral asset in the market stable with abundant liquidity in order to refinance the debt.
2. forecast to cut fed fund rate will weakens USD and real rates (previously real rates distorted by proportions of different length of bond issuance)
3. Bitcoin is the digital gold with higher volitility
Technically:
still within long-term trend.
Can't go wrong with GOLD in this environment?XAUUSD price is forming a symmetrical triangle, and approaching record high territory.
Triangle Continuation pattern and the buy entry will be formed if the price latter break above the short-term downtrend line.
Can't go wrong with GOLD in this environment?
GOLD longI see Gold increasing in price till 2416 then I'll be checking price action,I believe it will form a bearing butterfly, however if Gold doesn't break the 2392 then it could form a bearish bat...
WHATS FLOWING?!: STOCKS | GOLD* | OIL | 2's&10'sTop of the Market Action
As we settle into the trading day, here’s what’s making waves in the market:
Technology Sector: The tech giants are in focus today, with mixed performance across the board. While Apple and Microsoft are facing some pressure, the broader tech sector could benefit from the recent drop in interest rates. Lower borrowing costs and a more favorable environment for growth could provide some relief to these high-valuation companies.
Energy Sector: The energy sector remains under pressure as oil prices continue to decline. Major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron are seeing downward movement, reflecting concerns about global supply and weakening demand.
Financial Sector: Financial stocks are reacting to the news of lowering interest rates, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America experiencing slight declines. While lower rates can ease borrowing costs, they also compress profit margins on loans, which could weigh on bank earnings.Concerns About Further Drawdowns in the Stock Market.
Concerns About Further Drawdowns in the Stock Market
The recent lowering of interest rates in the U.S. has brought mixed reactions from the market:
Impact of Lower Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it supports economic growth by making borrowing cheaper, which is positive for sectors like housing and technology. On the other hand, it raises concerns about the underlying reasons for the cut—specifically, fears of an economic slowdown.
Economic Weakness: The decision to lower rates often signals concerns about economic growth. Recent indicators such as weaker job growth and declining consumer spending are fueling fears that the U.S. economy may be heading toward a downturn, leading to potential market drawdowns.
Corporate Earnings Uncertainty: With earnings season underway, the impact of lower interest rates on corporate profits is still uncertain. While lower rates can reduce borrowing costs for companies, they might also indicate a weaker economic environment, which could hurt overall earnings.
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps.
comment: Clear breakout above the previous channel and a decent channel upwards. Market could not close below the 15m 20ema since bar 23. On the daily chart we are near the upper resistance of the triangle and if bears come around tomorrow, r:r clearly favors them to trade back below 2450 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls did not meet much resistance by the bears today and we had a bull trend day on low volume. I take those with caution. Bulls next target is a higher high above 2522 and then a retest of the ath at 2536. If they can manage 2522, the ath could fall probably without much resistance and if we see a volume increase, we could potentially go much higher but that’s very low probability, given that 2500 was rejected so many times now on the weekly/monthly chart.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears stepped aside enough today but need to build much stronger selling pressure now to keep this also a lower high and stay inside the triangle. Will be interesting tomorrow. I do think odds favor them to trade back down but market will probably need either sideways movement above 2500 or a very strong sell signal like the last 2 sell offs above 2500. Bears first target is a close below the 15m 20ema and then trading below the 1h 20ema. Then they can start breaking bull trend lines. I do think much is dependent on the ppi print tomorrow and how most traders interpret it.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral above 2500. No interest in buying this at the highs. Only a very strong break above 2536 could change that. Waiting for bears to come around and if they can reverse this.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 21 + 18 or long since bar 22 or 23. Double bottom was almost perfect and had 5 consecutive 1h bull bars following it.
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this.
Quote from last week:
comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.
comment : Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2520
bull case : Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently.
Invalidation is below 2400.
bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis)
Invalidation is above 2522.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions.
My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible.
But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance.
I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you.
Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades.
This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days.
I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase.
We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2500
bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy.
Invalidation is below 2450.
bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart.
Invalidation is above 2475.
short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: none
trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
