Gold vs SilverLooks like the gold versus silver ratio is making a run at that historical breakout line.
Could breakout tomorrow on the weekly chart!
No matter what we think the ratio should be at...
GF101! trade ideas
Be careful with GOLD !!!As you can see, the price has made a fake breakout within the triangle, which is clearly visible on the MACD showing a bearish divergence. The price might drop to around 2685 and then try to break the triangle .
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Gold Strength Continues Ahead Of Fed MeetingThe Gold market and the metals complex as a whole had a strong run in 2024 , and Gold has seen this strength continue over the last few weeks. Since the highs in October, Gold has seen some consolidation with prices falling due to many factors such as the changing Fed environment and the overall sentiment of the precious metals complex. Some of the metals are still lagging due to the fact that metals like Silver and Copper have a more industrial background to them and have other factors impacting price movements. The average true range of Gold currently sits near 35, which is not a record high for the contract but is offering a wide daily range for traders to position themselves in.
The Gold market offers several different sizing options for many different types of traders, ranging from the newly released 1-oz contract to the full sized 100-oz contract. This wide variety of contracts helps give a larger range of traders the ability to trade depending on their own personal risk appetite or trading strategy. With the strong attention from traders on Gold along with the volatility traders have seen, it is critical for traders to understand what size contract will be most effective for their trading strategy.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
First Week of 2025 - Shape Market Sentiment for the Rest of 2025The first week of trading is always significant, as many investors begin initiating and rebalancing their positions for the year.
Last week, we discussed the bond markets, which may impact yields and influence the direction of interest rates and inflation. This could lead to increased volatility in the stock market, prompting investors to focus on gold.
1 Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MCG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
100Pts Long on GOLD / 5R Multiple for DA HOUSE Recap!!COMEX:GC1!
"2025 For a greater reward, we must go to the valley to CONQUER!!" -500KTrey
Here in this video I have gone into great detail about our system;
Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 20pt Stop / 5R Run... Well DONE!!
Enjoy. Stay Dedicated. Stay Focused. Seek Inspiration!!
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well an Abundance of low hanging fruit awaits us." -500KTrey
+Shalom
GOLD is setting up for the week! Switched to doing my breakdown on the micro contract since is what I actually trade and the forex chart is not moving in sync with it currently so I cant trust that price action. Expecting for a set up on a major play tonight some time between Asian session and London. Price is ultimately bearish so we not looking to get in until price moves outside of value to give us a entry.
GOLD Breakout and the Impenetrable 2760 Ceiling
Market open Sunday will likely give clues as to wether gold will continue to payout into near all time highs, or reject off of 2760 again and correct back downward. If price closes above 2760, considering the upward trend close enough to the price to make a safe long entry.
Gold Looks Towards 2700 $Gold Futures Short at 2730 $ as Double Top Pattern formation completed and Neck Line is Broke successfully with retest done in H1 time frame.
Expected fall towards 2700 $ which will be Profit Taking level.
Characteristics of a Double Top Pattern:
Two Peaks:
The price creates two nearly equal highs, indicating strong resistance at that level.
The peaks are separated by a pullback (called the "valley").
Support Breakout:
The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the "neckline" (the horizontal line connecting the lowest point of the valley).
Volume:
Volume is typically higher during the first peak and lower during the second, showing weakening bullish momentum.
Bearish Implication:
When the neckline is broken, it suggests a potential downtrend, as buyers fail to push the price higher.
The Direction of Gold 25.01.20Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on gold.
Gold Daily Chart Analysis
Chart:
Key Observations:
Gold recently broke above its long-term descending resistance trendline.
The resistance trendline began at the high on October 31, 2024, and was broken on January 16, 2025.
After breaking the resistance, gold reached a high near 2761, which failed to break above the top of the orange supply zone.
The current resistance stands at 2759.2, below the orange zone's high of 2761.3, leading to a short-term pullback.
Support Test and Outlook:
The yellow resistance trendline has turned into support after a successful retest.
Although the orange box supply zone has not been broken, the overall bullish momentum remains intact.
Next Resistance Levels:
If 2761.3 is broken, the next resistance lies at 2772.6, the upper wick resistance level within the purple box.
Breaking above 2772.6 could open the door for a potential retest of the all-time high near 2801.8.
Long-Term Trendline and Supply Zones
Chart:
Downside Risk:
A potential short-term trend reversal requires the green box to be broken.
Current key support for a breakdown: 2666 (below this level, gold will likely fall out of the Ichimoku Cloud).
A break below the red box supply zone’s lower boundary (2595) could signal a bearish shift in the larger pennant structure.
Current Gold Levels and Trading Strategies
Chart:
Buy Strategy:
A breakout above 2761.3 is crucial for initiating a long position.
If broken, the next target is the 2772 resistance level, with further potential upside to all-time highs if 2772 is cleared.
Sell Strategy:
Focus on the range between 2729.2–2720.9 for sell signals.
For gold to return to bearish momentum, the current support trendline (yellow) must break and turn back into resistance.
If the price breaks below 2729.2–2720.9, the next support level is the red ascending trendline.
Summary
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 2761.3 could signal continuation toward 2772.6 and beyond.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 2729.2–2720.9 could lead to a deeper correction toward the red ascending trendline or lower levels.
Stay strategic and monitor key levels carefully for potential opportunities. 🚀
Long positions feasible as gold tests resistance levels next wee
- Key Insights: The recent performance of gold indicates its positioning at
critical resistance levels, particularly around $2720. The potential for
upward movement remains if it breaks through these levels. Traders should
focus on managing risks given the high volatility, and beginners are
encouraged to practice with a demo account before engaging in live trading.
- Price Targets: Next week targets for long positions are T1: $2750, T2: $2785.
Stop levels are S1: $2710, S2: $2680. This setup suggests a cautious
approach while betting on gold’s ability to breach key resistance.
- Recent Performance: Gold exhibited significant fluctuations this past week,
stabilizing around the $2750 mark. Its performance stands out particularly
as other financial sectors have excelled, though gold remains intertwined
with evolving market conditions reflecting investor sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts continue to express a cautiously optimistic outlook
for gold in light of shifting economic indicators. While volatility remains
a concern, the sentiment among experts suggests that a breakout above $2720
could signal renewed interest from commodity investors, especially during
uncertain economic times.
- News Impact: Positive earnings announcements from major banks have created a
ripple effect, fostering speculation about a possible shift of capital from
equities into commodities. This environment encourages attention towards
gold as a safe haven or alternative investment during times of market
turbulence, underscoring gold's importance in a well-rounded investment
strategy.
Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” said John Pierpont Morgan some 100+ years ago. Gold is limited in supply. Much of what can be mined has been dug up.
Gold bugs opine that the only way for gold prices is up as fiat money continues to be printed with nothing but institutional promises backing them. As a result, not only is the price of gold inching up, but the value commanded by fiat money continues to contract.
GOLD’S RISE HAS REMAINED UNSTOPPABLE DURING THE LAST TWO YEARS
Gold, as represented by CME Gold Futures, was up 1.45x delivering a stunning 13.5% gain in 2023 followed by a record-shattering 27% gain in 2024.
These stellar returns were delivered with a 20-day rolling realised volatility averaging south of 14% commanding a Sharpe Ratio of more than one.
The World Gold Council analysis shows that gold outperformed US stocks, EM equities, bonds, and commodities. LBMA Gold prices surged by 25.5% while printing 40 all-time highs in 2024 with the most recent high of USD 2,777.80/oz on 30th October 2024.
This remarkable growth was driven by strong demand from central banks and institutional investors combined with rising geopolitical risks.
Source: gold.org
After such a stunning rally these last two years, what to expect from gold in 2025? First, recapping the rationale for gold.
GOLD REMAINS A HEDGE AGAINST SUSTAINED INFLATION, DEBASEMENT, & TRUST DEFICIT
Gold has long been considered a safeguard against economic uncertainties, particularly during periods when confidence in financial institutions and government policies wanes.
This perception is rooted in gold's intrinsic value and its independence from any single nation's economic policies, making it a preferred asset during times of trust deficit.
Several factors have reinforced gold's role as a hedge against trust deficit, key among them being:
• Geopolitical Tensions : Ongoing global conflicts and political instability have heightened investor anxiety, leading many to seek refuge in gold. Its value appreciates when geopolitical risks escalate, reflecting its status as a haven asset.
• Fiscal Policies & Debt Levels : Concerns over rising national debts and fiscal deficits, particularly in major economies like the United States, have prompted investors to turn to gold. Analysts suggest that gold benefits from apprehensions about the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits, serving as a buffer against potential fiscal crises.
• Inflation & Currency Depreciation : Fears of inflation and currency devaluation have further increased gold's appeal. As a tangible asset, gold is perceived as a store of value that can preserve wealth against the eroding effects of inflation & currency debasement.
Moreover, during periods of financial market volatility, gold has demonstrated its effectiveness as a portfolio diversifier. Its low correlation with other asset classes allows it to mitigate losses during market downturns, providing stability when trust diminishes.
In summary, gold's enduring value and independence from centralized financial systems make it a reliable hedge against trust deficit. Investors seeking portfolio protection turn to gold as a haven.
GOLD HAS HEADROOM TO RISE EVEN HIGHER IN 2025
State Street Global Advisors ("SSGA") cite three primary reasons for being bullish on Gold in 2025. These include (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India as domestic gold ETFs proliferate, and (c) US monetary easing and the potential for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policies to expand deficits.
Central banks have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace in recent record. Consistent buying in the past three years despite surging prices point to long-term strategic considerations beyond price sensitivity.
Gold’s inverse relationship with the US dollar remains misunderstood. The USD is as strong today as it was at the start of the century, while gold has appreciated 813% in the same period. A strong dollar does not necessarily make gold bearish.
New Trump Administration to be sworn-in later today (20th Jan 2025) also serves as a tailwind to gold prices. During Trump 2.0, the President's proposed tariff policies are likely to accelerate the de-dollarisation trend and be compounded by rising geopolitical risks. Collectively, this will push central banks and consumers to seek shelter in gold.
Source: SSGA.com
SSGA has a base case scenario (with a 50% likelihood) of gold trading between USD 2,600 to USD 2,900 an ounce. It also sets out a bull case with a 30% chance of gold price ranging between USD 2,900 to USD 3,100 an ounce. A bear case alternative (20% chance) of gold prices pulling back to trade between USD 2,200 to USD 2,600 per ounce.
GOLD ETF FLOWS HAVE BEEN ROBUST IN 2025
The GLD ETF has seen substantial positive inflows into the fund so far this year. Barring four days of net outflows, large inflows on 10/Jan and 17/Jan have contributed to additional AUM of USD 579.22 million into the GLD ETF taking the total AUM to USD 76.74 billion.
Post-election results, the GLD ETF witnessed multiple days of fund outflows and those have been more than offset with fresh funds moving into the ETF signalling bullish investor sentiment.
SEASONALITY FAVORS A BULLISH STANCE IN GOLD
Save for February & June, Gold Futures have generated positive returns during the first half of the year delivering 6.6% upside gains on average over the last ten years.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP
A confluence of fundamentals, seasonality, and sentiment points to near to medium-term bullishness in gold prices. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of a long position in CME Micro Gold Futures contract expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025). Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces.
Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively.
• Entry: USD 2,754/oz
• Target: USD 2,880/oz
• Stop: USD 2,670/oz
• P&L at Target (per lot): +1,260 ((2,880 – 2,754) x 10)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -840 ((2,754 – 2,670) x 10)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.5x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERN©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
The context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2.
The 4H chart shows that we are inside the 4th wave in grey, based on some data on the current price action, it looks like a Sidewaves pattern and is narrowing over time. So it suggests to me the view of an unfolding Triangle.
The ((d))-navy wave is probably close to completing its role by creating the resistance level ((b)),((d))-navy, but this view is not strong, so at the moment in gold, there are at least several different wave counts at work at the same time.
Let's look at the alternative view of ALT, which also shows that the 4-grey wave is not showing any signs of ending, but instead developing as a Flat, its ((b))-navy wave will move higher.
Short trade
15min TF
Trade Setup:
Session Context:
LND to NY transition PM (1:00 PM).
Increased liquidity and volatility are typical during this overlap.
Sellside trade
LND to NY Session PM
1.00 pm
Entry 15min TF
Reason:
Price reached a pivotal supply level
During the LND to NY Session
Making a high
Candle formation on the 15min
Indicative of Sellside pressure
Entry 2751.3
Profit level 2736.1 (0.55%) Target OB
Stop level 2754.4 (0.11%)
RR 4.9
Gold Futured trend line analysis Looking at the 15-minute chart, gold futures has been respecting the yellow downward trendline for some time before market close, while maintaining an overall bullish structure supported by the red upward trendline. The price is currently consolidating near the intersection of these trendlines, showing a potential breakout scenario.
If the price breaks above the yellow downward trendline, it could signal bullish momentum, with the next resistance levels to watch being near 2,744.8 and 2,747.6
The stochastics oscillator is currently in the oversold zone, accompanied by increasing volume—both strong indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the yellow trendline.
Volume will be critical in confirming the breakout, so keep an eye on increasing participation as the price approaches the yellow trendline.
Master ICT Weekly Profiles❔ What Are ICT Weekly Profiles?
ICT Weekly Profiles are conceptual frameworks designed to illustrate common patterns of price behavior observed during a trading week. These profiles help traders analyze and anticipate potential market movements based on historical tendencies and recurring patterns.
Each ICT Weekly Profile has distinct characteristics, providing insights into how price action might unfold within a given week. However, it is essential to emphasize that these profiles are not definitive predictions but tools for understanding market tendencies and guiding decision-making.
Detailed explanations of each ICT Weekly Profile, accompanied by examples, are provided below.
🌟 Classic Tuesday Low of the Week Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the market often exhibits a manipulative move on Monday, hovering above a higher time frame discount array.
By Tuesday, the price typically retraces into this higher time frame discount array, establishing the low of the week before resuming its upward trajectory.
To anticipate this behavior, it is crucial to identify the higher time frame discount array.
If the market does not drop into the discount array on Monday, it is highly likely that Tuesday will see a drive lower, forming the weekly low during the London or New York session.
👉 Classic Tuesday High of the Week Bearish
In a bearish scenario, the market may exhibit a manipulative move on Monday, hovering below a higher time frame premium array.
On Tuesday, the price typically rises into this higher time frame premium array, establishing the high of the week before resuming its downward trend.
To effectively anticipate this behavior, it is essential to identify the higher time frame premium array.
If the market does not rise into the premium array on Monday, it is highly probable that Tuesday will witness a drive higher, forming the weekly high during the London or New York session.
ℹ️ Wednesday Low of the Week Bullish
In a bullish market, price action often exhibits manipulative behavior on Monday and Tuesday, hovering above a higher time frame discount array.
On Wednesday, the price typically drops into the higher time frame discount array, establishing the low of the week before resuming its upward movement.
Key Insight:
To anticipate this phenomenon, it is crucial to identify the higher time frame discount array.
If the market does not drop into the discount array on Monday or Tuesday, it is highly likely that Wednesday will see a drive lower, forming the weekly low during the London or New York session.
🔗 Wednesday High of the Week Bearish
In a bearish market, price action often displays manipulative moves on Monday and Tuesday, hovering below a higher time frame premium array.
On Wednesday, the price typically rises into the higher time frame premium array, marking the high of the week before continuing its downward trajectory.
Key Insight:
To anticipate this phenomenon, understanding the higher time frame premium array is essential.
If the market does not rise into the premium array on Monday or Tuesday, it is highly probable that Wednesday will see a drive higher, forming the weekly high during the London or New York session.
🟢 Consolidation Thursday Bullish Reversal
In a bullish market, price may consolidate from Monday through Wednesday before running the intra-week low and rejecting it, forming a reversal.
How to Anticipate:
Identify the higher time frame discount array.
If price fails to drop into the discount array earlier in the week, Thursday may see a drive lower due to market-moving news or an interest rate release, typically around 2:00 PM (New York local time).
ⓘ Consolidation Thursday Bearish Reversal
In a bearish market, price may consolidate from Monday through Wednesday before running the intra-week high and rejecting it, forming a reversal.
How to Anticipate:
Recognize the higher time frame premium array.
If price fails to rise into the premium array earlier in the week, Thursday may see a drive higher triggered by market news or an interest rate release around 2:00 PM (New York local time).
📈 Consolidation Midweek Rally Bullish
When price is bullish and consolidates from Monday through Wednesday, it may run into the intra-week high and expand higher into Friday.
How to Anticipate:
Look for a scenario where price has yet to reach the higher time frame premium array but has recently rallied from a discount array and paused without any bearish reversal signals.
This suggests the price is preparing to expand higher towards the premium array.
🔴 Consolidation Midweek Decline Bearish
When price is bearish and consolidates from Monday through Wednesday, it may run into the intra-week low and expand lower into Friday.
How to Anticipate:
Identify if price has yet to reach the higher time frame discount array but has recently declined from a premium array and paused without any bullish reversal signals.
This indicates the price is likely to expand lower towards the discount array.
⛔ Seek and Destroy Bullish Friday
This is a neutral to low-probability profile. From Monday to Thursday, price consolidates while running shallow stops above and below the intra-week high. On Friday, it runs the intra-week high and expands higher.
How to Anticipate:
Such conditions often arise during periods of interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll reports, especially in the summer months (July and August).
It is advisable to avoid trading under these conditions due to increased unpredictability.
⚡ Seek and Destroy Bearish Friday
This is a neutral to low-probability profile. From Monday to Thursday, price consolidates while running shallow stops above and below the intra-week high. On Friday, it runs the intra-week low and expands lower.
How to Anticipate:
This profile is common during major news events, such as interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll releases in the summer months (July and August).
Trading in these conditions is best avoided.
🧠 Wednesday Weekly Bullish Reversal
In a bullish market, price consolidates from Monday through Tuesday, drives lower into a higher time frame discount array on Wednesday, inducing sell stops, and then reverses strongly.
Key Characteristics:
This pattern often occurs when the market is trading at long-term or intermediate-term lows.
Institutional buying is paired with sell-side liquidity, typically targeting sell stops.
💪 Wednesday Weekly Bearish Reversal
In a bearish market, price consolidates from Monday through Tuesday, drives higher into a higher time frame premium array on Wednesday, inducing buy stops, and then reverses strongly.
Key Characteristics:
This pattern commonly appears when the market is trading at long-term or intermediate-term highs.
Institutional selling aligns with buy-side liquidity, typically targeting buy stops.
🎉 Conclusion
ICT Weekly Profiles are structured frameworks designed to identify recurring patterns in price movements over the course of a trading week.
These profiles encompass various scenarios, including bullish and bearish trends, midweek reversals, and periods of consolidation.
By studying these patterns, traders can anticipate potential weekly highs and lows by analyzing price behavior on specific days, such as Monday through Wednesday.
Bullish on Gold for 2025 First id like to give credit to the indicators you see before you, Market Cipher and LuxAlgo.
The bottom indicator is the free MACD.
Tracking COMEX:GC1! since the start of the year we have had a positive past 2 weeks and snapped out of the downtrend from last month.
Keeping it simple I like to throw a Volume weighted Average Price (VWAP) to start the year.
The VWAP provides a more accurate representation of a security's average price over a trading session by factoring in both price and volume. This helps traders understand the true market sentiment.
Moving Down I want to only touch upon the green transparent money flow which helps determine if the flow of volume is either coming or going aiding in my analysis. Metaphorically, its like the relationship between water and life. More water, more growth. Green is positive red is negative.
Finally, The MAC D I just love to throw in for additional confluence and reassurance. Times likes these when I find beautiful connections between different indicators which otherwise have no connection. Viewing the vertical dotted line, just admire the relationships.
P.S. No positions currently, just looking for some more possible interaction with the VWAP in the future or for the MAC D to cool off like the other vertical lines. Looking for patterns keep me patient . This is a lesson that took me a long time to learn, and to unlearn any bad habits I formed.
Tradingview does a phenomenal job at supplying so many original ideas old and new of indicators you can fit together like Lego pieces. Many more ways to spin the chart, endless ways to express your ideas. So don't be afraid you share you're ideas with the community, the more the merrier.
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
