gold versus silver ratioWHO ELSE IS WATCHING THIS ?!?!
Looks like a false breakdown reversing violently to the upside
#gold #silver #ratio
GO1! trade ideas
Just a Health Pullback in Gold?
Gold
Technicals - (December - Z)
Gold futures came under slight pressure in the overnight session, with weakness in outside metals, strength in the Dollar, and an uptick in two-year treasury yields also contributing. Futures continue to maintain their upward trajectory, with 'dip buyers' still active in the markets. Futures will need to preserve the August 22 low of 2506.4 and the psychological 2500 in order to keep momentum traders in the markets. Any close below 2484.9 will open the door for a further correction.
Gold (Dec)—Daily stochastics correct from overbought territories, indicating traders maybe unwinding some of their bullish bets. DMI - turned above DMI + , indicating the market is cautious. The average true range (ATR) is 35.2 per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Bull Trade Trigger: 2504
Bull Trade Trigger Date: August 12
Trend Reversal Point: 2484.9
Resistance: 2566.2**, 2583.7**, 2601***
Pivot: 2506.4*** (August 22 Lows)
Support: 2500 (Psychological)***, 2484.9 (Trend Reversal Point)***
2467.7 (50 DMA)***, 2400 (Psychological)***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis - Short GC Gold FuturesIn this short educational video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, explains the VSA short set up "Potential Professional Selling" shown as a red indicator with PS above it. This results in a down move in GC Gold Futures, which will be confirmed if we see an indicator called "No Demand". To view Gavin's personal TradingView channel which has detailed analysis from last week, please follow him at gavinh10277
gold bearish quarter i think golds had brilliant run and I'm not going to suggest shorting gold or selling ur longs right away but i am suggested to look out for conformations on daily tfs for bear market downtrends to enter ur shorts positions this winter , we may rise above the channel but i think we will eventually run out of buyers this year
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls confirmed the breakout with a strong monthly close above 2500. There are multiple nested wedges currently and I would not buy into the highs but rather wait for a pullback or a breakout above 2570. Last thing you should do right now is to look for shorts until bears come around big time. Last time bears even touched the weekly ema was end of February.
Quote from last week:
comment: Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700.
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that.
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above the daily ema at 2517.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week.
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2546 and now we are at 2527. High of the week was 2564. 19 point miss over a week is as good as it gets.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines and made the bullish structure more clear.
GC1! - weekly outlook for Sep 4-7GC1! on monthly closed within the Jul range setting up the premise for a CRT on monthly (see the fib levels for CRT in the monthly fib)
On weekly we have another CRT candidate with prev week's low acting as DOL for the week of September 4-7.
Not much on daily and we need confirmation on 4h for the unicorn setup. Basically anticipation for GC1! to provide an entry from the 4h fvg before moving down to the weekly sellside liquidity.
GC ( GOLD ) Open Outcry Initial Balance Fib extension Projection- Initial balance High/Low calculated between 7:20 and 8:20am CT for the Fibonacci tool.
- Displaying previous 10 days with Fib Levels < 1 and < 0.
- The Session Volume profile (SVP) calculates during Outcry Trading Hours : 7:20 am - 12:30 PM CST with Value Areas High/Low between the blue lines and Vol POC in Pink.
- I am also looking at extending the SVP to 16:00 CST when Futures trading stops for the day.
Initial balance Fib Levels with SVP- Initial balance High/Low calculated between 7:20 and 8:20am CT for the Fibonacci tool.
- Displaying previous 10 days with Fib Levels < 1 and < 0.
- The Session Volume profile (SVP) calculates during Outcry Trading Hours : 7:20 am - 12:30 PM CST with Value Areas High/Low between the blue lines and Vol POC in Pink.
- I am also looking at extending the SVP to 16:00 CST when Futures trading stops for the day.
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020.
OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September
Spread: Bearish spread divergence
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals.
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
GC GOLD Buy BOXBeen a while since posting my thoughts here, I have been working on something that is GOLD. Supply and Demand can often be overlooked. Trading can often be over complicated. Back up and study the basics. Supply and demand characteristics of the market are the most rudimentary but often the best way to creaete a system that brings forth consistent gains. How many traders are actually profitable. Find a system that works for you it could start with a simple supply and demand type strategy.
Here we have price reacted perfectly off of the supply zone, (Yes I took that short position from the top and have the screen shot to prove it just ask if you want to see it). Now will we enter a demand zone and reverse. My plan is to simply wait, I took my profits and now I just wait until my alerts are hit and my criteria is met to go the other direction.
What will you do? Leave it in the comments I am happy to be back posting and look forward to more!
High Probable SHORT from 4Hr (78.5% Fib. Level) for the HOUSE..?COMEX:GC1!
"When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you'll be successful. It's not about craving success like you crave food or water, it's about needing it like air. That urgency, that necessity—that's when you break through." -Eric Thomas
We coming out on TOP nothing less than that! Here I have developed a High Probable SHORT for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE here on GOLD and below I'm going to break down what I want to see develop before we enter the market. Let's get to it!!
1) On the Daily TF I am starting to notice just ever so slightly exhaustion from BUYERS to the upside....
2) 4Hr TF we have a rising eR/LQ Trendline that buyers have been respecting very heavily. Also we have a smaller Descending eR/LQ Trendline that sellers have been respecting as well. We are currently trading inside of the last 4Hr Last High ($2570.5) and 4Hr Last Low ($2506.5). I drew out the Fib. from these price levels and price is currently trading around mitigated pricing of 70.5% ($2,551.5)
3) Now what I'll be looking for to enter the market SHORT is bulls continue to push price higher into the HTF 4Hr Supply Zone Candle stick... The Killzone level is 78.5% ($2,556.5) which is also near the 50% EQ level of the overall 4Hr Supply Zone and also near the descending eR/LQ Trendline that sellers have created to the Downside....
4) If and when Bulls can continue to push higher into premium pricing 78.5% Fib. Level I then will drop down to the LTF 5-15m and wait for a confirmed 15m Bear CHoCh. Once we can get this confirmation I will then look to enter SHORT and target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($2538.5)...
5) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Gold shows signs of exhaustion at its record highGold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this timeframe. The bias is to fade into retracements within yesterday's range to target the 2540/45 range, near the 50-bar EMA and HVN (high-volume node).
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thu 08292024 - Sideway & Big move NYPrice opened within the previous value area, suggesting sideways movement within this range during the Asian and London sessions. With news expected at 19:30, anticipate a significant move, likely continuing upwards after a major sweep of the bottom.
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way.
gold
comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral.
Invalidation is above 2570.
short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
How to ride trend and exit positions using Shlionz MAsBuy Signal:
Trend Start: Buy when EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200.
Pullback Entry: Buy when the price pulls back to MidBB or EMA 50 in an uptrend, with WMA 10 crossing above MidBB.
Confirmation: EMA 5 crossing above EMA 10 (WMA 10) can serve as additional confirmation for entry.
Sell Signal:
Trend Reversal: Sell when EMA 50 crosses below EMA 200.
Pullback Exit: Sell if WMA 10 crosses below MidBB or EMA 50 after a pullback.
Confirmation: EMA 5 crossing below EMA 10 (WMA 10) can signal a potential exit or further downside.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Below MidBB or EMA 50.
Take-Profit: At key resistance levels or based on a risk-to-reward ratio.
Implementation Summary.
Buy Entry:
EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200.
Price pulls back to MidBB or EMA 50.
WMA 10 crosses above MidBB.
EMA 5 crosses above WMA 10 for confirmation.
Sell Exit:
EMA 50 crosses below EMA 200.
Price closes below WMA 10 and MidBB.
EMA 5 crosses below WMA 10 for confirmation.
Incorporating EMA 5 adds a faster-moving element to your strategy, helping you to react more quickly to short-term changes and providing additional confirmation signals.
This is distribution starting in Gold - No Demand explainedIn video four of our TradingView educational video series we study the pullback in Gold as discussed in video three, and this started on Monday 26th August 2024.
In this video we show a very key principle in the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis and SMART Money Indicator technology called "No Demand" with SMI confirmation.
Any questions get Gavin's book on Amazon, "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" or email LAURA@TRADEGUIDER.COM for a free PDF of the same book.
