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Gold, How High Can it Go?Gold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2351.0, up 5.6 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 27.807, up 0.304 Gold futures have now set a fresh record high for the eighth straight session. Although Silver is well below its 1980 and 2011 record highs of $50, the underlying strength exuded in recent sessions is certainly nothing to ignore. The first task for Silver is clearing and holding above what has become a psychological barrier at $30. Days like yesterday, where what feels like a precipitous drop is quickly reversed back into positive territory, are likely going to become more of the norm, but with wider ranges, and doing so is an exhibition of such underlying strength. Still, risk management is key and that is why our trade desk is here to help, always feel free to reach out. Gold is in unchartered territory, therefore, we are using extension levels from multiple historical ranges, and it is trading into a sticky spot redefined by 2366.1-2372.5 as today’s pivot and point of balance and 2380.2-2384.5 as major three-star resistance. With Silver, continued resilience above a new handle (28 versus 27) should pave the way for a test of major three-star resistance at 28.52-28.57 on the session. From there, we brace for tomorrow’s CPI data. Bias: Bullish Resistance: 2380.2-2384.5***, 2400**, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2366.1-2372.5 Support: 2348.1-2351***, 2344.3-2345.4***, 2321.7-2325.3***, 2315.7**, 2298.7-2299.6***, 2285.7-2286.2***, 2279-2281.8*** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.20**, 28.52-28.57***, 28.71-28.90**, 29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 27.99-28.01 Support: 27.80-27.87**, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 9th April 2024if Sustain above 2358 then 2371 to 2375 then 2383 to 2391 or 2396 above this bullish then 2419 to 2421 if Sustain Below 2351 to 2350 then 2346 then 2324 then 2321 below this more bearish Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Old Resistance Becomes New Support! Gold futures have gone parabolic this year, outperforming Stock Indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Can this rally continue? Or can we continue to make new all-time highs in what may be a new “Bull Cycle” for the precious metal. Key Drivers: Gold is typically sensitive to monetary and fiscal tightening. When interest rates and government spending are at tighter levels, the metal typically struggles to push higher. However, this has not been the case with this rally, despite the 10-year yield climbing 50 basis points YTD, the metal has continued to break records. There seems to be more macro influences in this rally, for example resilient US economic data, and bets that the Fed will deliver fewer rate cuts than previously priced in are lending support to the dollar. That is weighing on the Chinese Yuan. The PBOC is one of the largest holders of US treasuries, and it is possible that they may be selling US treasuries to purchase even more gold. They now hold about 72.74 million toy ounces in reserves, up from 66.50 million troy ounces this time last year. Technicals: Technically, Gold futures are overbought, as the RSI shows a level above 75. Old resistance of 2082-2105 will now become new major support. This level also coincides with the 21-day EMA. If we have a large pullback, we will want to hold this level to keep bullish momentum intact. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?Intricate dance between gold and copper prices is a tale beyond mere metals. It reflects global economic sentiments, industrial demand, geopolitical angst, and investment trends. Gazing into the crystal ball to decipher the future of the gold to copper ratio, a fascinating narrative unfolds, particularly highlighting copper's brighter prospects. Copper is displaying record futures premium unseen since 1994 fueled by supply side concerns. Beacon of positive economic data from China, is helping Copper shine brighter than Gold. This paper delves into the forces propelling copper and illustrates how portfolio managers can use the gold-to-copper ratio to gain risk reduced exposure to copper’s ascent. COPPER SUPPLY IS FACING PLENTLY OF HEADWINDS Mined copper and Refined copper are facing potential supply disruptions. Copper miners have benefited from the growth in supply over the past year. Australian mining giants reported higher annual copper production (BHP up 7% and Rio Tinto up 3%). Both benefited from a higher realized price. Copper mining costs for Australian miners were higher due to outages. While copper operations have done well, other commodities have not. Iron Ore, Aluminum, Platinum Group Metals, and Nickel prices are performing poorly. This has negatively impacted performance of mining majors. BHP profit was flat while Rio Tinto was down 9%. It is likely that miners will start scaling down production to boost profitability. Some have already started. For instance, Anglo American announced that it would lower its copper production guidance by 20% to 730k-790k tonnes. Mine outages are another source of concern. Macquarie Bank highlighted that disruptions remain elevated resulting in supply deficit of 700k tonnes in 2024. Copper shortage risks exacerbating the ongoing raw material shortage at refiners. Chinese copper smelters announced a rare joint production cut last month due to shortage of ore. Consequently, Chinese copper spot treatment charges (measure of refiner profits) plunged 75% in merely two months. Recent guidance from BHP (+7%) and Rio Tinto (+11%) point to a sharp increase in copper production signaling strong demand. Rio Tinto’s own smelter projects are coming back online this year, and its guidance suggests refined copper production will surge 40%. This will exacerbate ongoing raw ore shortage. COPPER FUTURES PREMIUM SURGES TO HIGHEST SINCE 1994 Potential supply disruptions are evident in the market. The contango for copper futures on CME Group is sharply steeper signaling even higher prices in the future. Source: CME QuikStrike Front-month futures are trading sharply higher than the spot price. According to Bloomberg, the gap between LME copper 3-month forward and cash market is at its highest since 1994. Copper prices are clearly sensitive to supply side shocks. CHINA’S RECOVERING ECONOMY SUPPORTS COPPER DEMAND Copper prices are shining bright. Supply constraint is not the only reason. Demand outlook is promising. Chinese economy has started to build up pace. Outlook however remains uncertain. Copper is overwhelmingly impacted by industrial and manufacturing activity and growth. Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI surged from 50.9 to 51.1 in March. It marked the fifth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion which augurs well for copper demand. However, demand side headwinds remain. Besides manufacturing, housing is a key sector driving copper consumption. Housing construction consumes copper for wiring and piping. Persistent housing slowdown will drag down copper demand. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BULLISH COPPER COPPER GOLD Both copper and gold exhibit strong bullishness. Technical signals for copper are marginally greater than those for gold. Copper shows stronger positive momentum according to RSI while Gold’s momentum is fading. Gold also faces resistance at its R1 pivot point while copper has found support at its R1 pivot point. OPTIONS MARKET BODE WELL FOR COPPER RELATIVE TO GOLD Positioning on CME options market signals that both copper and gold have a bullish outlook. However, copper’s put/call ratio is lower, indicating a more bullish sentiment. Unlike gold, copper has seen a buildup of bullish positioning over the past week too. COPPER CME copper options have a put call ratio of 0.44 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Changes to open interest have been bullish with a larger growth in calls relative to puts over the past week. GOLD CME gold options have a put call ratio of 0.72 as of 4/April. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts open interest has been on the rise, especially in near-term contracts over the past week. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS ALSO FAVOR COPPER OVER GOLD COPPER Asset managers have switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month in CME copper derivatives. However, the most recent report shows short positioning being built up sharply. GOLD Asset managers built up a large net long position beginning March in COMEX Gold. Since then, positioning has since remained unchanged at net long. Asset managers have also been consistently scaling back short positions over the last month. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Copper is faced with the potential of worsening supply disruptions. Supply of raw ore for refiners is already disrupted, forcing them to become unprofitable. This situation is likely to worsen as Rio Tinto’s smelting plants come online through the year consuming even more raw ore. Supply of ore is also being cut by miners as they face unprofitable conditions. Supply of ore is also rising. Australian miners stated that production is expected to rise this year. Supply may become resilient if refiner’s scale back production. Demand favors copper with consistent economic recovery in Chinese manufacturing. Housing remains a headwind creating downside risk to demand. Copper prices are high and so is uncertainty on the path ahead. Prices are up 10% YTD as of 4/April. As such, a straightforward long position is risky. Demand at present is not higher, as suggested by the spot discount. In case the disruptions do not materialize, prices could pull back sharply. Alternative to an outright position in copper is the Gold-Copper ratio which exhibits strong mean reversion. The ratio is also elevated right now, owing to the massive rally in gold prices through 2024. Gold is trading near its all-time high, which is limiting demand and further price appreciation. Contrastingly, copper is still far from its highs of 2022. Expecting copper outperformance, a short position in the gold-copper spread can be used to gain exposure to copper’s tailwinds with lower risk. The following hypothetical trade setup comprises of a long position in CME Micro Copper Futures and a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. The position requires two contracts of Micro Copper for each contract of Micro Gold to balance the notional values. Each Micro gold contract provides exposure to 10 troy ounces of gold (representing a notional value of ~USD 23k. Each Micro copper contract provides exposure to 2500 pounds of copper (representing a notional value of ~USD 10.6k). • Entry: 558 • Target: 531 • Stop Loss: 567 • Profit at Target: USD 1,402 • Loss at Stop: USD 333 • Reward-Risk: 4.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
[GC] Gold's moment after BTC ?Gold futures ( SET:GC ) have been consolidating within a range for an extended period, accumulating significant energy and potential for a substantial move. Our previous entry before the anticipated breakout has positioned us well to capitalize on this impending volatility. Currently, the price action demonstrates promising signs as it consolidates above the resistance level, indicating strength in the upward momentum. Furthermore, a bouncing pattern is emerging, suggesting increased buying pressure and a bullish bias in the market sentiment. The key catalyst for further upside potential lies in the price's ability to break decisively above the level outlined on the chart. This breakout would not only validate the bullish bias but also likely trigger a surge in buying activity, propelling the price higher and potentially initiating a significant upward trend. As such, our strategy is poised to capitalize on this potential breakout, with an emphasis on monitoring price movements closely for confirmation of the anticipated move. A successful breakout above the specified level would present an attractive opportunity for additional long positions, aiming to ride the ensuing uptrend for optimal gains. In summary, the current consolidation phase in Gold futures ( SET:GC ) sets the stage for a potentially explosive move, with favorable conditions for further upside. Our focus remains on the price's ability to break above the designated level, signaling a bullish continuation and offering an opportunity for strategic long positions. Great Trade !
COMEX:GC1!
by ArnoSG
GOLD Price Prediction: NEW PARADIGM OR EXIT SCAM?!Here is the 14 years of GOLD price history and action. Looking at it we can locate a lot of triangle shaped during its movement. 📌 Nowadays we facing resistance zone of $1860 (2011-high) and this is important zone for the whole world. Here is the chart of GOLD (XAUUSD) as pic: Price consolidate in triangles over and over from 2007 and this is quite interesting. Now price in the upward triangle shape, which can be broken down according to 2011 same shape of triangle. In 2011 we faced European Debt Crisis and price of gold surged down to 1000 low in 2015. So now, price in upward triangle and what it will do next? I see very high possibility to breakdown at see small retracement, before breakout from 2011 highs $1860 reistance zone. But there is a chances for bullish breakout now, so be careful. There is a quite good chances for price rise over next 5-10 years to $3000. Thanks for attention This is Artem Crypto
COMEX:GC2!
by ArShevelev
9
Can Gold run to $3000/oz?How will you capitalize when Gold is up $500 on a Sunday night? I am not looking for an answer; we futures traders think about it. Gold futures this week reached new all-time highs as anxiety surrounding an escalation between Israel and Iran (OPEC member) pushed the CRB index to its highest level since October as the raw materials basket entered the new bullish phase. Silver futures jumped to new contract highs, and Crude Oil futures reached their highest levels since last October. Historically, commodities have proven to be the best asset class to own just before the Fed cuts rates because supplies often remain limited while demand accelerates. Friday morning's blockbuster payroll data (303k vs. 200k exp.) brings up another question I often ask: If we have strong jobs, consumer spending, and GDP growth, why does the Fed even need to cut rates? Fed officials pushed back on interest rate cut expectations to try and help boost the U.S. Dollar. Why would they do such a thing? A strong Dollar can help them regain control over inflation. It will also make exports look expensive and cheap imports look like bargains. The critical level to watch in the Dollar Index is 105, a close above that could temporarily halt the rise in precious metals. Taking it to the Charts Central Bank buying, ETF inflows, and geopolitical safe-haven buying all helped Gold futures surge this week. Futures continue to show resiliency with initial support at $2255, followed by $2005. Your "line in the sand" is pocket support at $2170-65, where any close below this level should spark further liquidation www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
GOLD: 1 Apr, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Shane Hua (CEWA-M) The outlook analysis suggests that Gold may continue to push higher, but there's a limitation on the upside potential due to the fifth wave. The target could be aimed at $2295 - $2327, and as long as the price stays above $2240, it's a positive sign for this bullish view. Any contrary forecasts against my main trend aren't necessarily against the primary trend, but rather an indication that something might be amiss, suggesting that we should tighten our risk management to preserve profits :)
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ShaneHua
Five waves and three waves? or extension for wave threeDear analysts and traders, I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it. I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily. I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him. Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, Mr. Nobody
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 2nd April 2024**Levels recorded at 7:35 PM IST if Sustain above 2268 to 2269 then 2277 then 2286 then 2293 then 2304 if Sustain Below 2268 then 2256 then 2251 then 2233 then 2222 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold Breaks All-Time-High !Gold surged above $2286 per ounce, marking yet another milestone in its remarkable ascent. This surge has persisted for two consecutive trading days, underscoring the enduring strength of the precious metal. The driving force behind this meteoric rise is the mounting anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June. Such a move is expected to exert downward pressure on the US Dollar, consequently fueling further gains in Gold prices. Year-to-date, Gold has surged by an impressive 9.8%, with March alone witnessing a staggering increase of nearly 9.4%. A closer examination from a technical standpoint reveals a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle formation, marked (in blue) which has been taking shape since early 2020. This breakout signals a robust indication of sustained bullish momentum in Gold prices over the long term. For traders, this presents a lucrative opportunity to capitalize on the prevailing bullish bias both in the intermediate and short term. Going along the phrase of "The trend is your friend", a simple trade below may capture any retracement opportunities along this steep surge. Entry: 2218 TP: 2320 (can be partial TP or pull up trail stop) SL: 2149
COMEX:GC1!Long
by phillip_nova
Watch how the markets Repeat Patterns Over and Over Welcome to our "Idea" where we delve into the fascinating realm of recognizing patterns in trading and leveraging them to your advantage. The core idea is simple yet powerful: patterns repeat themselves, and by understanding them, you can enhance your trading success. Our comprehensive lesson plan is designed to equip you with the skills necessary to identify various chart types tailored for different trading strategies, whether you're into Scalping or Swing Trading. Moreover, we'll explore the strategic utilization of diverse indicators to pinpoint precise entry points with high probability outcomes. By establishing predetermined stop-loss levels and setting multiple target numbers, you'll learn how to manage risk effectively while maximizing profits. Throughout this journey, witness firsthand as we demonstrate the process from defining trades in advance to executing them and securing profitable outcomes. Get ready to elevate your trading game with practical insights and actionable strategies.
COMEX:GCM2024
by CFRN
GOLD's New Bullish CycleWe are close to my previous price target for GOLD: In recent weeks, Gold has captured the spotlight by surging to all-time highs, signaling a potential shift in the precious metal's market dynamics! The breakout has garnered attention from investors, raising expectations for a new bullish cycle, with some setting a price target of $2500. Historically, gold has been perceived as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, or inflation concerns. The recent surge in gold prices suggests that investors are increasingly turning to the precious metal as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier. The $2500 price target underscores the optimism surrounding gold's future prospects!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TopgOptions