CKER1! trade ideas
GAS OIL FUTURES (GASF2019)Gas Oil futures price is currently testing the 61.8% retracement of the previous uptrend and this also happens to be a zone almost in confluence with the support zone. The price also seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle on the upper timeframes, therefore we should watch how the price tests those support and resistance zones, as those areas can provide good entry or exit points. This chart is suitable for day traders as the lower time frames are missing, therefore intra-day traders be careful.
Heating Oil: Long opportunity and exit plan.Heating Oil is now approaching the 1D MA50 (light blue line) on a non-stop pull back since the peak of the Saudi attack. The 1D chart is neutral (RSI = 47.087, MACD = 0.011, Highs/Lows = -0.0354) signalling that we are approaching the most optimal buy level. We therefore turn bullish on Heating Oil with our Target Zone: 2.1000 - 2.1370. Note that even though 1D is still on Higher Lows, if the price breaks 1.8500 it will most likely re-test the 1.7425 1W Support.
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HOF2020-RBF2020, Buy HeatingOil Jan20 & Sell RBOB Gasoline Jan20HOF2020-RBF2020
Our trade on this spread between Heating Oil Futures F20 and RBOB Gasoline Futures F20 has started.
In 87% of the times this spread is profitable in the seasonal window.
Our job is to find the best time both statistically and technically.
Heating Oil: Bullish as long as the Channel holds.Heating Oil has been trading on a very steady 4H Channel Up (RSI = 62.494, MACD = 0.014, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and is currently on its Higher Low. Our long TP is 2.1000, as long as the Channel is holding. The previous bullish run of February 11 - 19, shows that around +8%, the price breaks the uptrend and pulls back on a lengthy descending channel. If the current 4H Channel Up breaks, we expect a similar pull back pattern to take place.
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HEATING OIL FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, NYMEXTrading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 1.9041
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.8883
Take Profit (TP) : 1.9725
Description
HOH2019 formed Double Repo Failure Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (1.9041) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.8883). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.9725)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (0.5%) : $5,000
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$4.2
Commission fee = -$2.37/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.0158 = -$663.6
Contract size to open = 8 standard contracts
EP to TP = $0.0684 = +$2,872.8
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$37.92
Loss = -$5,308.8
Gain = +$22,982.4
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.29
HEATING OIL FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, NYMEXTrading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 1.9041
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.8883
Take Profit (TP) : 1.9725
Description
HOH2019 formed Double Repo Failure Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (1.9041) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.8883). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.9725)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (1%) : $10,000
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$4.2
Commission fee = -$2.37/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.0158 = -$663.6
Contract size to open = 15 standard contracts
EP to TP = $0.0684 = +$2,872.8
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$71.1
Loss = -$9,954
Gain = +$43,092
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.29
HEATING OIL FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, NYMEXTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 1.8883
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.9041
Take Profit (TP) : 1.8563, 1.8167
Description
HO formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (1.8883) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.9041). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.8563) and 1.8167
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (0.5%) : $5,000
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$4.2
Commission fee = -$2.37/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.0158 = -$663.6
Contract size to open = 8 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0320 = +$1,344
EP to TP#2 = $0.0716 = +$3,007.2
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$37.92
Loss = -$5,308.8
Gain#1 = +$5,376
Gain#2 = +$12,028.8
Total Gain = +$17,404.8
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.25
Heating Oil Warming UpThe Energy complex currently has mixed signals.
However, the New York Heating Oil contract appears to be setting up for a bull run.
With the Minor Pivot Stack providing support, the price looks like it is readying for a move up.
Go long if the price breaks above 1.9065 and place a stop loss at 1.8660.
With a profit target at 2.0545, this makes for a good risk reward trade.
Trade the March 2019 contract, symbol HOH2019, on the ICE Futures exchange with any NFA registered U.S. futures broker, both regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Not confirmed but ready to buy...outside pressure is rough...Fundamentals are showing, lots are watching short, end of year approaching, Fed & EIA + API today + "...geez, did you see what just happened..." = sit back and wait and watch. Everything telling me to buy, especially peers, but thinking a lucrative lower bottom could be trending (even if past EOY.) End of year, Christmas Rally, emotions are there to go higher, take profits, and get out quick. Could get burned. Go with the pack, or wait and see what I woulda, shoulda, coulda, but missed.... Thoughts?
