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LNG1! trade ideas

NATGAS Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the NATGAS next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.294 Bias - Bearish Safe Stop Loss - 2.350 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 2.203 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
MCX NATURAL GAS The behavior i observed regarding Natural Gas (NG) prices over the past two years, showing a pattern of positive returns in Q1 and Q2 and negative returns in Q3 and Q4, can be explained by several factors that influence the energy market, particularly the seasonal nature of natural gas demand. Key Factors: Seasonal Demand: Q1 and Q2 (Winter and Early Spring): Natural gas is in high demand during the colder months, especially in North America and Europe. The need for heating increases, which drives up demand for natural gas, leading to price increases. This is why the price generally rises during the first half of the year. Q3 and Q4 (Late Summer and Fall): Demand for natural gas decreases as warmer weather reduces the need for heating. In addition, Q3 often coincides with lower energy consumption due to milder weather, while Q4 may show some price declines before winter demand picks up again in late Q4. Supply Factors: The supply of natural gas may remain stable or even increase in warmer months, with less demand pushing prices down in Q3 and Q4. This dynamic causes prices to retreat. Hurricane Season (Q3): Natural gas production, particularly in the U.S., can be affected by hurricanes in Q3. Disruptions may cause temporary spikes, but if supply isn't significantly reduced, the general trend remains bearish in this quarter. Storage Injections (Q2-Q3): During Q2 and Q3, natural gas is often injected into storage for use during the winter months. While this may support prices slightly, it typically doesn't offset the general lower demand, keeping prices under pressure. Observed Patterns: Q1 & Q2 (Positive Returns): Cold weather and increased demand for heating fuel drive natural gas prices higher, resulting in positive returns. Q3 & Q4 (Negative Returns): Warm weather reduces demand, and prices fall as supply exceeds immediate demand for heating. This recurring pattern is a result of the highly seasonal nature of natural gas usage, and traders often anticipate and plan for these price movements when making decisions in the natural gas futures market.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by HarishJangda
NATGAS Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.289 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 2.203 Safe Stop Loss - 2.340 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
NG Trading ChannelAs of late August, NG has been in a bullish trading channel. NG is the most volatile of all commodities and there are quality daily trade opportunities both short and long over the short term. Longer term, the current cycle has a bullish slant. Fundamentally we are moving closer to the winter season that is switches storing gas to removing gas from storage. In anticipation of this we should see a bullish slant toward headed into winter. Technically speaking , gas is trading in a nice channel that will help you anticipate buying and selling opportunities. Any drop below 2.20 is a buying opportunity. I'm anticipating a short term pullback as NG continues to climb toward the 2.40 level. www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NGV2024
by WP_KBInvest
4
Long Gas Short Oil on Nuanced Macro ConditionsWhen prices diverge, like shadows in the night, spread trading strategies unfold in plain sight. WTI Crude Oil (“US Crude”) and Henry Hub Natural Gas (“US Nat Gas”) Futures have diverged recently. US Crude prices continued sliding amid easing supply concerns and weak demand from the US and China. Meanwhile, US Nat Gas prices rose steadily on rising demand, shrinking storage surpluses, and rising exports. As OPEC+ weighs delaying output hikes and gas producers reduce supply, energy markets remain volatile, presenting interesting trading possibilities. WTI CRUDE OIL HITS NEW 2024 LOW AS SUPPLY DISRUPTION CONCERNS EASE The US Crude Oil has posted two consecutive monthly losses owing to a weak economic outlook. US Crude prices briefly rose on supply disruptions in Libya and heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. With tensions easing and the expected resumption of Libyan supply, prices dropped sharply as the risk premium diminished. Reuters reported that the cartel is considering delaying the hikes to support the US Crude prices. Yet downside risks loom large due to weak manufacturing data from the US and China. Additionally, July JOLTS job openings in the US dropped by 237k to a three-and-a-half-year low of 7.7 million, missing expectations of 8.1 million, cementing further bearish sentiments. OPEC faces a dilemma of optimising between price support and market share. Delaying the Q4 OPEC output hike may not be enough to support prices as current production is already high amid feeble demand. Output cuts are essential to support prices, but doing so risks losing market share to non-OPEC producers and shrinking oil revenues. Convincing OPEC members to approve deeper cuts may prove challenging. GAS PRICES REBOUND ON STRONG DEMAND AND SHRINKING STORAGE SURPLUS The US Nat Gas prices have been bearish throughout 2024 due to excess storage resulting from the mild winter last year. Prices tanked 31% from the peak of USD 3.313/MMBtu on 12/Jan this year. Prices recovered between May and June and then slumped again, falling 39% between 11/Jun and 27/Aug, hitting a four-month low. Since 28/Aug, gas prices have rallied with strong demand from power generators who have switched from coal to gas. Source: EIA Modest inventory injections have supported the uptrend, with builds below the five-year average in sixteen of the last seventeen weeks. For the week ending 30/Aug, inventories rose by 13 Bcf, below analyst expectations of 26 Bcf and the five-year average of 51 Bcf, thereby reducing surplus. Storage for the week ending 30/Aug was 10.7% above the five-year average, down from 12.1% the previous week. Source: EIA Rising LNG export flows and the US Department of Energy’s approval of a five-year export license for New Fortress Energy further supports prices. Natgasweather.com forecasts moderate temperature-driven demand for natural gas. This outlook supports steady natural gas demand in the near term. Gas majors such as NASDAQ:APA and NYSE:EQT are forced to reduce volumes for the second half of the year due to above-average gas storage. This could lead to tighter supply during winter as seasonal demand picks up. Steady growth in LNG feed gas deliveries will support the US Nat Gas prices, driven by robust exports from the US to Europe. Europe’s demand for gas peaks during winter. The current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop is exerting significant downside risk to US Crude Oil prices. Absent a sharp economic recovery in China and an exogenous geopolitical shock, oil prices will remain under pressure. The US Nat Gas prices remain under pressure from excess supply. Easing storage levels, rising demand from power generators, robust winter-led demand from Europe will serve as tailwinds pushing up prices in the near term. Source: Barchart The US Crude Oil prices are presently trading above it 5-year average price range. Meanwhile, the US Nat Gas prices trade significantly below the five-year average. Source: Barchart The options skew is -3.71 as of 05/Sep for crude oil signalling that puts are more expensive than calls. This reflects expectations of stronger downside price risk. Source: CME Group In sharp contrast, skew for the US Nat Gas options is positive at 6.01 as of 05/Sep suggesting that calls are more expensive than puts. This shows expectations for upside price risk. Source: CME Group HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given this backdrop, this paper posits the following hypothetical spread trade comprising a long position in CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (MNGV4) and a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCLV4). To establish a spread trade between MNGV4 and MCLV4 given the current prices, a portfolio manager needs 3 lots of MNGV4 to be matched against 1 lot of MCLV4 to ensure that the notional values are identical. The set up and the pay-off under different scenarios from this spread trade is summarised below. Portfolio managers can better manage downside risks with options. More on that in a future research note. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MNG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
2