Gold Assignment review and Intraday Reversal Market ProfileGold London consolidation and New York meltdown. Explaining the reasons. And OTE fibonacci levels
TGM1! trade ideas
gold trend direction .. Follow upGold 92870 - Has given a inside bar pattern ( bearish ) and signals are diverged suggests drop to 87300
goodreturns.in wrote :
Market Outlook for Gold Prices in India According to a recent report by FXStreet, "Gold prices may witness a short-term pause as bulls take a breather following an extended rally. The report notes that while the fundamental outlook remains bullish, the metal appears slightly overbought on the daily chart." "From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering just above the 70 level, indicating overstretched market conditions. As a result, analysts suggest that it would be wise for traders to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest price correction before entering new long positions."
Gold Trade Review – Potential Pop, Drop, then ATH's SetupWe are currently watching a potential pop and drop and potential ATH scenario developing in gold. Price is holding above a key daily level at $3,021.4 , which will serve as the critical pivot area. A sustained move below this level will likely trigger continuation toward the next significant daily level at $2,968.5 for T1, and potentially further into the weekly/daily support zone at $2,953.2 , with an extended target at the daily level of $2,929.0.
I would expect that zone to provide support, though there is an untested area lower near the recent lows at $2,893.6. Ideally, I do not want to see price move much beyond our first weekly/daily support zone mentioned above but would lean on the lower level as a last ditch effort to hold the structure.
From the current price structure, based on Fridays close there's also potential for a move higher into (#1) $3,058 , which is an untested daily level (approached from below). If this level acts as firm resistance, it could trigger the anticipated drop into the zones outlined above. Keeping an eye on being above or below $3,021.4 will be critical for progression in either direction.
Gold trend directionGold 93887 has given V patten inside raising flag pattern. Based on chart formation we find the move could be a possible trap with 90587. We expect Gold to drop to test 90587 initially before the flag pattern break down and drop down to our earlier target .
News : supply of gold has increased, demand has decreased. Central banks worldwide are expected to slow their pace of acquisition. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 71% of central banks plan to either reduce their gold reserves or maintain current levels.
Liquidity Concern :"We're getting a lot of stress in the gold market because of liquidity concerns and margin covering by speculators," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Gold vs Inverted Dollar IndexThis is what I was talking about... note that the dollar index is inverted (upside down).
For the past week, most of the move in gold is due to the movement in the dollar index because we're looking at gold futures in dollars.
Dollar tanks, then gold futures goes up in dollars. It may just stay flat in terms of Euros or francs.
So basically I got lucky shorting it last week, lol. The dollar bounced.
Gold "Breakout" - Dollar Tank EditionBought some GLD this morning because I couldn't think of any other play, and I'm watching the market drop and bond yields rise. Then I look at the dollar index and saw it dropping too. The Euros are selling off all US assets, that's why the drop happened between midnight and noon.
The 2% "pump" wasn't really a pump, the dollar dropped 2% this morning. (Though there was a 0.5% actual pump before close.)
Gold (in dollars) will break out if the dollar index drops below support (I posted a chart). I've been looking for a high confidence big trade, I'm going big on gold if the dollar loses support, and that can happen as early as tomorrow. Keep an eye on the dollar index, I'll be at work so I will not be posting my trade entry.
Note that it's not really a breakout, if you look at gold futures in Swiss francs, it's not even near the top. Also, this trade does not apply to people trading in other currencies like Euros or yens.
I think Trump ruined confidence in the dollar, the US market, and bonds. If that's the case, then gold is the way to go.
Gold - The Blow Off TopAs gold hit a high today I took a look at the chart. Incredible run going back many years. But what goes up must come down. Based on a Fib-extension we can see where price has hit resistance and turned it into support. It happened at 1, 1.272, 1.618, and briefly at 2.618. It has remarkably pushed through that. So in my studies of markets and fibonacci I've found that 4.236 often times bring about the top on a parabolic move. So by following that logic I would put the top, at least a local one, at $3,800. Roughly 25% from here. Anyways, that's my 2 cents on Gold. Happy trading.
Short trade
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (CG1! Futures)
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
⏰ Time: 11:45 AM (New York Time)
🕒 Session: London to NY Overlap – Late NY AM
📉 Pair/Instrument: CG1!
📈 Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 3179.7
Take Profit (TP): 3149.7 (–0.94%)
Stop Loss (SL): 3186.0 (+0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.76
Reason: Observing exhaustion in a rally before NY closes liquidity window with a price sweep into high (supply zone) signalling a reversal.
Gold4 10 25 this is a relatively short video 15 minutes maybe a little bit more looking at the dollar and looking at Gold. I think gold is getting ready to go higher and it's because of a pattern that developed last night. the way the bars are moving and expanding is triggering a belief for me that the market is going higher. there are reasons why it might go lower since it's in a Range box. the dollars going lower the Gold's going higher you have 1 or 2 bars that make incredible swings and those swings are bi-directional in that one goes up by a lot and then the next bar goes down by a lot..... this is because it's an expanding Market that makes money for buyers and sellers and expanding markets can be very stressful because they make big changes and then on the next bar you get a big change in the other direction.... so you have to think a little bit differently and count on what you think where both sides of the market.... the buyers and the seller and know where they are. if there's 1 point that I think is very important and that is that the 2 bar reversal when the market was at support is really where you would take the best trade based on the way I look for opportunity in a market and it's important to look at where that is and what it looks like because it makes a total difference and how your experience with your entries will change for the better.
GOLD MCX MINOR RESISTANCEGOLDMCX
Gold Mcx has seen huge bull run today on 10th April 2025 (Thursday), Looking at the chart it can be clearly seen yellow metal on MCX is trading in upwrad trending channel pattern and around 92400-92500 Channel Pattern Resistance can be observed. There can be some profit booking seen from current levels, One can get out of long positions and reenter long position once GoldMCX closes above 92500, till then book profits on Long positions, or sell Gold MCX with Small stoploss of 92600
Short XAU (Gold) Gold Futures are showing a very clean impulsive move through Elliot Wave TA. You can see the running flat on the 2nd wave leading to a very strong move on the Wave 3 major move. The Wave 5 is shorter than the Wave 3 to confirm the possible completion of this 5 Wave move up.
A weaker DXY (USD) is throwing an obstacle to this beautiful setup. Let's see some stability to the bonds market which should lead to stability in the equities market. This should help propel traders taking profits on this Gold rush.
Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses.
I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week!
- R2F Trading
We might get a play on Gold soon! Been waiting for price to come for these levels for almost a month now. Now that we are finally here I'm just trying to keep my cool and wait for things to line up inside of the killzone. We could get a nice bullish swing here. We just have to wait for price to show us thats what it wants to do.
