Gold is up over $1500Since I did this post back in August 2023.
Gold is up over $1500 in less than 2 years.
EPIC breakouts you should seek
TGM1! trade ideas
Long trade
15min TF overview
Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) Long Position
Entry Price: 3468.9
Profit Target: 3509.6 (+1.17%)
Stop Loss: 3462.2 (–0.19%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.07
Target Liquidity High: 3509.8
🕔 Entry Time: 5:05 AM
📅 Date: Tuesday, 22nd April 2025
🌍 Session: London AM
⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF
Trade Reasoning
Intraday Market Structure:
The 5-minute timeframe revealed a bullish internal break of structure, signalling a short-term reversal and favouring buy-side continuation. Price had formed a higher low, respecting bullish structure and suggesting accumulation.
GC UpdateNot sure if this is a melt up or not, bit strange that RSI and MFI are moving in opposite directions.
I have a long term position set up, but I'm not planning on doing big options plays unless MFI hits the red line or if I expect the stock market to drop. I might play a little tomorrow for TSLA earnings, lol. (TSLA has dropped so much it's only 2.6% of QQQ, it won't be able to tank the market on its own.)
I think the next big gold movement happens when the China electronics tariff is announced. No idea when that happens. The market is just a guessing game with Orange Man in charge.
In any case, I have a EUROTLX:4K target for gold, don't really care if I have to wait a few months or a year or whatever. This seems like a safer bet than anything else.
Gold Futures– Expanding Triangle Top HypothesisAs of April 14, 2025, gold has surged to record highs near $3,265, but the technical picture suggests trend exhaustion. Price action resembles a potential expanding triangle top, with bearish divergence on RSI and momentum, declining volume on rallies, and seasonal cycles hinting at weakness into May–June. This may not be a fresh impulse but rather a volatile topping formation. If the triangle pattern holds, we could see a breakdown toward the $2,950–$2,800 zone before another base forms. Short-term traders should be cautious and consider scaling into shorts only on failed bounces near resistance. Longs may want to wait until strong support zones around $2,750–$2,850 show signs of stabilization. Risk/reward now favors defense over chase.
Bearish Divergence Across the Board:
RSI & Momentum indicators failed to confirm new highs
Volume spiked on selloffs, not on breakouts
Possible expanding triangle top forming (ABCDE pattern), often a major topping structure
Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence:
Seasonal weakness into May–June aligns with cycle top
Key retracement targets: $3,045 → $2,950 → $2,870 → $2,800
Support zone to watch: $2,750–$2,850
Trade Strategy Ideas:
Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks)
Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding)
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B)
Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%)
Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone)
Entry Plan (Short Bias):
Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent.
Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption)
Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950
Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone
Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early.
Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months)
Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long
Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025
Buy Zone (if correction unfolds):
Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone)
Entry Strategy:
Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone.
Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support.
Stop Loss: Below $2,700
Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200
Scale Out Strategy:
Scale in between $2,800–$2,750
Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs
Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months)
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction)
Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter.
Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling.
Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential:
Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025.
Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher.
Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns.
📌 DYOR. Not financial advice.
#Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup
Gold's Surge: Flight to Safety or Foreshadowing Fear?🚨 Gold just saw its largest weekly inflow in history as shown in the chart by BofA Global Research. The metal is soaring above $3,400/oz while most other assets are crashing hard.
This isn't just bullish momentum — it's panic capital. When fear dominates markets, investors rush to safety. And historically, that safety has always been gold.
But here’s the catch: when fear becomes too crowded, even safe havens can become dangerous. If gold fails to hold these levels and begins to correct, it won’t be a slow bleed — it’ll be a free fall, and a lot of people will get caught.
💬 What do you think? Is this just the beginning of gold’s golden age, or are we seeing the early stages of a bubble?
Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order🪙 Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order 📈
🏆 Gold Bulls Rejoice — The Chart Speaks Loud
From $1,700 to over $3,200 — gold has defied every rule in the macro playbook. It rallied through rising rates, a strong dollar, and a supposed tightening cycle. This move isn't just about demand — it's a signal .
📉 Interest Rate Timeline: 2020–2025
Gold moved counter to monetary logic — here’s the full context:
2022 🔺 R: 0.25 ➝ 4.50
Start of aggressive rate hikes – CPI peaked at 9.1% 🔥
2023 ⚒️ R: 4.50 ➝ 5.50
Peak tightening – gold didn’t flinch
2024 ✂️ R: 5.50 ➝ 4.25
Mid-year rate cuts – inflation cooled to 2.4% ❄️
2025 🔁 R: 4.25–4.50
Fed paused, Trump pushing for deeper cuts – tariffs complicate the easing path
🇨🇳 The China Factor – A Strategic Gold Game
#1 producer AND importer
Keeps all domestic production
Estimated holdings: 13,000–17,000 tons
Investing globally (Africa, Asia, LatAm)
Possible BRICS-backed gold currency on the horizon?
China isn't just hedging inflation — it's preparing for monetary evolution.
💱 CPI From Fire to Frost
2022: CPI at 9.1% 🔥
2025: 2.4% ❄️ — near the Fed’s 2% target
Yet despite “normal” inflation, the Fed holds — a sign of deeper uncertainty.
🧭 The 4 Modes of Gold – Explained on Chart
Trump Mode : Aggressive cuts → Gold targets $3,300–$3,600
Feds Mode : Status quo → Gold tests $3,000
China Mode : Strategic surge → Long-term $3,998+
Bitcoin Mode : Digital store of value rises → Gold reverts to $2,537 zone
These are not just technical levels — they represent global monetary narratives.
🕰️ Will History Repeat Itself?
In 1873, Germany adopted gold. China stayed on silver — and lost its monetary edge.
Today, it’s not silver vs gold — it’s gold vs Bitcoin .
China stockpiles gold
U.S. institutions embrace Bitcoin
Trade wars have become currency wars
This isn't a normal market — this is the early stage of a global monetary shift .
🔮 Final Thoughts
We stand at the crossroads of history .
Gold has already chosen its path.
Bitcoin is waiting in the wings.
And fiat? Under pressure.
Stay awake. Stay diversified. The next monetary standard may already be forming.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos.
Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs
Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years.
Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies
In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded.
Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis
The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty.
This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar.
The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability.
Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors
According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024.
The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure.
Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal.
Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar
Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge.
The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June.
Gaining Access to Gold
Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases.
On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market.
However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread.
Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract
A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price.
This new contract offers several advantages:
Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures.
Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management.
Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery.
Putting into Practice
Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy
Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures
A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures.
The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices.
Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders.
Case Study 2: Directional Strategy
By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner.
Conclusion
As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors.
For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
Long term gold bull still good even if near current sell zoneFrom 1970 to 1980 I took 2 different fib extension to project the target sell zone for the blow off top and the price hit the target. I used the same fib extensions to give the target sell zone for the current bull market. Then I looked at how extended was the price from the 12 month SMA and it was 57%. Then I made a channel with the at the 12 month SMA and expanded it by 57% from the current and followed the angle of the 12 month SMA. If the price reaches the target sell zone and also is extended to reach the top of the channel this would most like be the blow off top. There are also other trend channels (gold color) that will give top side resistance. The green box in 2000 is the retrace buy zone and since we do not know the exact current top I drew possible bottom retrace buy zones of the next bear way out in the future and will need to be adjusted. This is not trading advise , just my thoughts.
GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ – WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but now… the tide is turning fast.
📉 As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold.
Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz — a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods.
💬 We’ve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven.
US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets — and gold is winning.
Let’s put it into perspective:
➡️ Over the last 20 years:
• Gold is up +620%
• S&P 500 is up +580%
📈 Gold is trading like we’re in a modern depression — quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments.
🧠 The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" — it’s "why didn’t more people see this coming?"
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.
GOLD, Is it 5th Wave?1. Sharp Movement, Steep Trade Angle
2. Length of 3rd Wave is equal to 5th Wave
3. Ascending Channel TGT is completed
4. Divergence in the Price Movement
5. Nifty Price Movement - It is at a breakout point. The Correlation between 2 asset classes is approximately Negative 0.30 to 0.35 post Covid
If this is the case, then price may not move beyond 1 Lakh
This will be a great opportunity to book the profit in gold; it may correct to 70000 or below in the next few months.
Will The Gold Rally End When Large Speculators Buy?A few weeks ago we reviewed Gold price action and positioning and how Large Speculators (blude column and traditionally trend followers) started to sell Gold which I could not explain. Well, they continued to sell Gold futures, and now Gold is breaking out making new all-time highs. If anyone knows who is buying this Gold, please comment and let me know, because it is not Hedge Funds trading with size (aka Large Specs). Small Specs (yellow column) have been buying but their size is so small, not sure that is what is driving price higher.
As Gold continues to be the commodity to watch in 2025, when will the market turn? As long as it is not crowded to the long side, the trend can continue for a while, especially if Large Specs continue to sell. I would keep watching to see when they start buying week over week (not just one week), where they commit to the trend, and hopefully they get max crowded, providing a potential short trade in Gold with high reward to risk ratio. Until then, and as I always say, don't short all-time highs.
Short trade
15min TF overview
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (GC!1 – Gold Futures)
📅 Session: Tokyo to London AM
⏰ Time: 4:45 AM
📉 Pair: GC! 1 (Gold Futures)
🧭 Direction: Short (Sell)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 3324.7
Take Profit (TP): 3288.2 (–1.10%)
Stop Loss (SL): 3331.3 (+0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 5.53 ✅
🧠 Trade Narrative:
A short setup during the transition between Tokyo and London. The trade idea is based on combining session timing with the sweep of Tokyo high, where gold often reacts to macro flow and liquidity grabs for a sellside trade idea.
Unpopular opinion, but I think it's time to short GoldThis melt-up is approaching resistance, and the symmetry on the chart is compelling. It could set up a great short opportunity as gold consolidates ahead of its next major move higher, likely in 2027.
However, if it breaks out of the current channel, we could be entering a true melt-up phase — and there's potential for significantly higher prices.
Gold silver coffee4 15 25 I wanted to do this video before the market moved any higher today. I don't know if it's a paradox or not but it looks to me like gold is going to go higher today after it's been coiling since last week and I explained the Dynamics of a coil and the expansion of a coil and hopefully I said it clearly enough that you at least understand my point of view... and then whether it works or not it's a matter of what the market does and I can't change the market. so gold is near an all-time high and it looks like the buyers are coming in to take it higher but as it stands it's hard to know what's going on because it's early in the morning and nothing's really happening ... and my explanation would be that as bullish as the pattern is for gold to go higher it's still contracted. on the other hand silver is not contracted at all it is so expanded that there's a possibility that if silver starts going higher it can have very impressive moves because it's an expanded Market... and they move a lot better with a lot more efficiency than a contracted Market. and the Paradox is that the goal looks like it's going higher to a new high and the silver might go a lot higher because it's expanded. and I'm going to tell you right now if you read this none of it may happen ... but I would be very surprised if gold doesn't go higher... it only takes a few ticks. what really is going to be important to me... his if the silver actually trades the ABC pattern that I put on that chart because that pattern creates a very large Target area that can have tremendous effects on the silver market because it would be driven much closer to its all-time high which is $50.... so if silver goes several points higher there's a good chance it can attract more buyers to drive silver closer to its all time high..... in effect this changes the silver market which is lagging compared to the gold market.
