TGM1! trade ideas
Gold's Final Push: $3,000 Target in SightGold (XAUUSD) remains in strong demand, revising the prior bearish outlook. Price action now targets $3,000, completing a possible final wave as part of the bullish structure. This move likely marks the last ride before a potential correction. Watch for key resistance near $3,000.
Gold Sweeps before Major PlaysWait if you looking for the move! Cause price will give us some type of validation of what it wants to do. It can remain bullish and break through this area or it can pull back and grab some liquidity before continuing. We just have to wait for the killzones to show up a clearer read.
Gold On Thin Ice!**Current Trends and Future Prospects in the Gold Market: An In-Depth Analysis**
In the past two years, gold has seen an impressive surge, almost doubling in value. This rally has captured the attention of investors worldwide, driving them to seek refuge in this precious metal amid uncertain economic landscapes. However, with this meteoric rise comes a growing concern: is gold still a safe haven, or is it teetering on the edge of a significant correction?
**Gold's Meteoric Rise: A Double-Edged Sword?**
The comparison to the U.S. dollar's performance in 2022 is noteworthy. The dollar, which enjoys a higher liquidity status compared to gold, experienced a dramatic 12% drop in value within a span of just three months. This sharp decline highlights a critical vulnerability in what was previously considered a safe and stable investment.
**Potential Risks and Market Overcrowding**
Given the parallels, there is an increasing risk that gold might face a similar fate. The gold market, currently saturated with bullish investors, hints at an impending correction. Analysts suggest that a potential value correction could see gold prices plummet by $500 to $1,000 per ounce. Such a correction would have profound implications, shaking investor confidence and market stability.
**The Crowded Market and Limited Gains**
The current influx of cash into gold also contributes to this precarious situation. As more investors flock to gold, the chances of a significant correction heighten. Moreover, with such a crowded market, the potential for substantial gains narrows. Bullish positions might push gold to a ceiling of around $3,000 to $3,200 per ounce, but beyond this range, the market may struggle to sustain further growth.
**Shift in Cash Flow: From Gold to the Dollar**
In the event of a correction, it is likely that we will witness a shift in cash flow from gold to the more liquid U.S. dollar. This shift would not only underscore the dynamic and often volatile nature of global investments but also demonstrate how investor sentiment can pivot quickly in response to market changes.
**Long-Term Outlook: Geopolitical Influences on Gold's Value**
Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions and shifts in global reserves could significantly impact gold's value. Nations opposed to the United States may continue to increase their gold reserves as a strategic counterbalance, potentially driving gold prices up to $3,700 per ounce in the long term. This geopolitical factor introduces an additional layer of complexity to the already intricate gold market landscape.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 13th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks), 3rd phase of the cycle. The pivot forecast on February 3 worked as a reversal of Monday’s overnight tariff hysteria. The major trend from the December 18 extreme forecast continues.
⚠️ By Friday’s close, we saw a breakout of the previous top at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2800 on the current futures contract). This level may now become strong support. I believe strong hands didn’t fall for the tariff hysteria and held their long positions from the January 29 extreme forecast. Next extreme forecast: March 3. Next pivot forecast: February 11.
Renewing daily new highs (ATH)...
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(GCL1! 1M chart)
GCL1! is renewing daily new highs (ATH).
It is not easy to analyze or trade these stocks.
Since it is supported and rising near the right Fibonacci ratio point of 1 (2828.6), there is a possibility that it will rise to the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.618 (3395.3) ~ 1.618 (3457.6).
However, since it is a state where it is not strange to fall at any time, you should think about a countermeasure for the fall when starting a transaction.
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(1D chart)
Most chart analysts explain the current chart analysis by substituting issues other than the chart.
If you get used to this method, you may find issues other than the chart first without looking at the chart and analyze the chart while being obsessed with your subjective thoughts.
If you do that, you may analyze the chart in the wrong direction because you will interpret the chart with your subjective thoughts instead of looking at the chart as it is, so you need to be careful.
When analyzing charts, you must first look at the chart and analyze it, and then look for issues other than the chart when you have time.
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In order to trade a stock that is renewing its ATH, you should check for support when it shows a downward trend and start.
However, since it is renewing its ATH, there is no support or resistance point to check for support.
To compensate for this, we use the 5EMA+StErr indicator and the Price Channel indicator.
Therefore, when the price falls and touches the 5EMA+StErr indicator or the Price Channel indicator, you can find the trading point depending on whether there is support.
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(30m chart)
You can trade when it breaks out of the section made up of the Price Channel indicator or the box section made up of the HA-High and HA-Low indicators.
Of course, trading is also possible within the box section.
At this time, you should be careful that the trend can change when it passes the MS-Signal indicator.
When you touch the 5EMA+StErr indicator on the 1D chart, you can check whether there is support and trade.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Is this the Pull Back Zone On Gold XAU GC1! In this video I highlight the potential area for a pull back on Gold Using the TR Pocket and Trend based Extension tool . Using these tools combined we were able to establish a zone of perfect confluence for a downside reaction on Gold. Also I use the new Demonstration Cursor released by Tradingview to highlight the levels on the chart of where my fib pulls were made.
In addition to the above I noticed after completing the video that we have yearly pivots that are untapped around $2580.
CPI on Wednesday may give us the narrative for the reaction up at those highlighted highs and to begin cooling off . I welcome your engagement Boosts comments + follows . Enjoy Ty
Gold’s Correction Ahead? Technical Signals Point to Bearish MoveGold (XAUUSD) on the 4H timeframe signals a potential bearish move. Wave (X) appears complete, with an ABC correction likely targeting $2,645.90 (1:1 W=Y). Bearish RSI & Stochastic divergence suggest weakening momentum, supporting downside bias. Wave 4 may complete before a bullish continuation.
GC1: Probability of downtrendWe can see in gold that we are in a bullish channel situation with a succession of many green candles accompanied by many green volumes. This situation draws our attention to a probability of having a decline. This decline will be confirmed by the strong break of the support line and the vwap indicator by a large red candle and followed by a large red volume.
Aiming for Long Positions in Gold as Bullish Momentum Continues
- Key Insights: Gold continues to demonstrate strong upward momentum driven by
central bank demand and geopolitical anxiety. An anticipated rotation from
tech to commodities, particularly gold, presents a favorable opportunity for
investors. Positive sentiment suggests a continued bullish trend, with
expert opinions indicating potential price targets near $3,000 or higher.
- Price Targets: Next week targets for a long position are T1 at $2,980 and T2
at $3,050. Stop levels to consider are S1 at $2,850 and S2 at $2,800,
ensuring strong support while maintaining a positive risk-to-reward ratio.
- Recent Performance: Gold recently peaked at $2,910, affirming the bullish
trend despite minor challenges for some traders. The market has shown
resilience, and the overall sentiment remains largely optimistic amidst
fluctuations.
- Expert Analysis: Experts project further increases in gold prices, especially
if interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve materialize. Watchful
investors are encouraged to view pullbacks as potential entry points into
the market, with an outlook that remains bullish.
- News Impact: Notable investments from the UAE in Zimbabwe’s gold sector
illustrate the growing global dynamics favoring gold. Geopolitical tensions,
tariff concerns, and a heightened demand for physical gold and gold-backed
cryptocurrencies underscore gold's position as a reliable hedge against
uncertainty and inflation.
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC).
Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management.
Identifying the Trade Setup
Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.
The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone.
Trade Plan and Risk Management
The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively:
The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken.
The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level.
Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (GC) details:
Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 100 troy ounces
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details:
Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC)
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract.
Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals.
If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade.
Conclusion
Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Gold Unstoppable to get to 3000, but we might see a pullbackOn Gold futures I clearly see this going for new historical highs, but since everyone is joining the ride a pullback is around the corner.
Liquidity has just been swept on the 4Hr, so this would be a perfect scenario to squeeze the longs all the way down to a bullish order block/demand zone at 2853,2
EWTSU GOLD future intermediate (4)
Elliott Wave Trade Setup
GOLD future intermediate (4)
intermediate (4) running
B of expanded flat ABC
prices reached target of B at 2900 area - should reverse in wave C
C target beyond the end of wave A (2543 area)
alternative
intermediate (4) ended in a running zigzag ABC (C low 2597)
minor 1 of intermediate (5) developping
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bullish! BUY Them!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
Gold and Silver are both bullish, with Gold being the stronger of the two. I am not interested in selling either until I see a bearish BOS, as the swing structure is bullish, and the trend is up. Wait until the fractal structure is aligned with the overall market structure, which would make for higher probability buys to follow the trend.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
The 3rd Major Pivot in Gold’s Uptrend - Since Trade War in 2018We just witnessed the start of another pivot in gold when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. My gold trading strategy has always focused on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
The chart above clearly illustrates three major V-shaped formations in gold. After each tariff or trade war, a V-shaped pattern formed in the same month the policy was initiated, followed by a subsequent uptrend.
Recently, I published a video analyzing other significant tariffs since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018. We observed a consistent pattern: after each tariff or trade war, the same month of policy initiation saw the formation of a V-shaped trough, followed by an uptrend.
This time, the V-shaped trough occurred during the U.S. presidential election month. The right side of this V-shape was completed with the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, signaling the expansion of the trade war beyond China.
The consequence of trade wars is inflation, and gold has historically served as a leading indicator of this trend.
If the trade war persists and intensifies, a continued uptrend in gold seems inevitable. Analyzing the long-term monthly chart using my parallel channel approach, we observed gold prices encountering resistance around $2,600 in September 2024 and beyond. However, by the close of January, the price action provided a clear confirmation of the ongoing gold uptrend. Gold firmly closed above $2,600, reaching $2,835 for COMEX Micro Gold Futures.
On the 3-hour chart, I have provided another set of parallel channels as a guide to track support and resistance levels as gold trends further.
As gold prices continue to climb, their notional value can become quite large for retail traders. COMEX Micro Gold Futures, being 1/10th the size of the regular gold contract, is a better option for me when the next buying opportunity arises. Recently, CME launched a new contract—a pocket-sized one-ounce gold contract. One key to successful trading is selecting the right contract size for oneself, which is crucial for effective risk management.
Once again, my strategy for gold remains the same: focus on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
Gold Contracts:
Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: GC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00
1Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
