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TPAM2024 trade ideas

PA1!: K.O. or bear-trap Round 2?With rate cut questions fueled by the West's bumbling towards another Mid-East war, palladium bears have returned the recent pump to sender with a vengeance. Factor in more EVs and the future for the PGMs looks bleak, right? But a closer look suggests not is all as it seems for these precious metals with their unique properties. A recent Reuters article from December 2023 revealed that Russian and Chinese scientists with government backing "have been conducting semi-industrial tests of palladium-based catalysts for the hydrogen industry's water electrolysis and fuel cell technology," with the tests "due to be completed in the first quarter of 2024." With Russia being the largest miner of palladium and China the biggest importer, these new "products could add 40 metric tons of global demand for palladium by 2030, offsetting a surplus of 10-20 tons owing to the expected reduction in consumption by the automotive industry by the same year". Furthermore, tests of these new "palladium-based catalysts for the chemicals industry will start in the second quarter" of 2024 with focus also on the "development of a palladium-based photocell..for the solar power sector." (source: www.reuters.com) Add to this equation massive US investment in a hydrogen economy as evidenced by the number of projects presenting at CES '24 and PA1! is worth keeping an eye on. (Disclaimer: Any and all ideas and or comments published by me is not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.)
NYMEX:PA1!
by R0llins_
Palladium: deaths, taxes and PA1!They say only deaths and taxes are certain, and yet palladium's recent pump and dump has been so clockwork it puts German trains to shame. They also say markets never travel in straight lines, but clearly they haven't traded palladium which has now retraced all the way back to where it pumped from. On the 4 hourly chart, the precious metal has been swimming with the fishes under the RSI's oversold for more than week and yet despite appearances it can't stay there forever. With the economy in soft-landing rude health and interest rate cuts in sight, hints of which likely spurred this metal out of its slumber, how long until we see another clockwork pump back up to the daily 200MA and beyond?
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by R0llins_
Palladium: looking for directionAfter a fantastic pump, the profit taking dump has been relentlessly orderly and is now at a crossroads. Currently bouncing off the .786 Fib, will we see a bullish trend emerge with a higher monthly high, or will demand continue to lag and its bear channel resume? One thing that may be worth considering here is palladium's importance in hydrogen energy production. If hydrogen fuel is going to feature strongly in the transition to clean energy as global investment in it indicates, then palladium may well be currently selling at a discounted price.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by R0llins_
Palladium: Time for the Turnaround! 🔄Palladium is heading a little further downwards: the price is now drilling deeper and deeper into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: $1092 - $997). We expect that the low of wave B in turquoise will be deposited within this price range and that the trend reversal to the north will then succeed, which should subsequently bring us the price increases in wave C in turquoise. All technical conditions have now been met for this low; however, we allow the price to move a little lower again within our Zone. To hedge or minimize the risk of long trades, a stop 1% below the lower edge of the Zone can be placed. However, if the primarily expected bullish trend reversal succeeds, the metal should soon break above the resistance at $1257 and thus gain fresh upward momentum.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Palladium ready to blow off topPalladium had been in a bearish channel for some time, but after a double bottom it's gone W in a big way. That way has been nearly vertical but is now looks exhausted. Having been rejected from the 1.618 Fib, profit taking will be next as everyone gets ready to race for the door. Looking closer on the 4H chart, the 50MA is about to cross up over the 200, which is a golden cross on a daily chart, but a look at price action and it's meekly dribbling sideways while the RSI remains precariously in overbought territory. Unless there have been abrupt orders for 50 million additional combustion engine cars no-one's talking about, this puppy otherwise in a demand death bleed is ready to blow off top.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by R0llins_
Palladium power playTrading Idea: Buy PAUSD (Palladium) A decline in CME Palladium's commodity price has been observed over the past three months. Idea core logic: This long trading strategy identifies commodities with current prices that are significantly higher than their 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages. The strategy also looks for commodities with an exponential slow moving average that is significantly higher than the current price. By analyzing these metrics, the strategy generates notable support and resistance levels. Traders can use these levels for market entry and exit, maximizing their profit potential. Trading Strategy: Asset Symbol: PAUSD Latest Price: $1,139.75 Asset Class: Commodity Rationale: The price of PAUSD has been on a decline over the past three months, indicating a potential buying opportunity. PAUSD's current price is significantly lower than its 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages, suggesting that it may be undervalued. The exponential slow moving average for PAUSD is significantly higher than the current price, indicating a potential upward trend. By buying PAUSD at its current price, traders can take advantage of the potential price reversal and profit from the expected upward movement. Risk Assessment: This trading idea is suitable for a moderately short investment horizon and a high risk tolerance. As with any investment, there is always a risk of loss. Traders should carefully manage their risk and set appropriate stop-loss levels. It is recommended to closely monitor the market and adjust the trading strategy accordingly based on the provided facts. Technical Outlook CME Palladium has receded 44.8 below a resistance level of 1,103.33. In the near term, the Palladium future is approaching its 21 day Simple Moving Average at $1,140.24. The uptrend of CME Palladium continues, with its share price rising 3.26% over the past 9 days. Today, it is expected to rise a further $2.23, or 0.2%. During the first half of today's session, the Palladium future rebounded from earlier losses, recovering from lows around $1,128.78. Over the past month, there has been a downward trend in CME Palladium's share price, with a decline of 9.31%. However, there are signs of a possible bullish phase emerging. Palladium has broken above its 21 day Simple Moving Average at 1,140.24. This could indicate the start of a new bullish trend. Furthermore, CME Palladium is pushing upwards towards a key Bollinger Band® level around 1,172. Extensive multifactorial technical analysis suggests that CME Palladium will continue to extend its strong run in the short-medium term. Today, it reached as high as $1,143.78. With all probabilities considered, the Palladium future is expected to appreciate amid a risk-on mood in the coming days. In comparison, other commodities are also showing positive movements. Platinum is currently trading at around 949.05, up 0.97% from the previous session's close of 939.9. Meanwhile, Copper recorded a gain of 0.23% despite touching lows around $1,128.78.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by NomolosAI
Palladium: The Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternIn the price action of palladium futures, recent development has been the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This technical formation, characterized by a temporary dip followed by a rise and then another dip, has garnered the attention of traders and investors, who are closely monitoring the implications for future price movements. The pattern's appearance suggests a potential shift in the dynamics of palladium futures, however we will need to close above the 21-DMA while holding a higher high than the 10/23 low to confirm a shift in momentum. Against the backdrop of this pattern, there is an important factor to consider: the influence of Chinese economic data. While the strong Chinese economic data may offer some optimistic prospects, it is essential to recognize that it could also present a headwind for palladium prices. China is a major consumer of palladium, with a significant portion of its demand coming from the automotive industry. The robust Chinese economic data, including impressive industrial production and manufacturing figures, might seem like a boon at first glance, but it raises concerns of potential shifts in policy measures. In response to such strong economic performance, authorities may consider tightening regulations to address environmental concerns, which could impact the demand for palladium in catalytic converters. Additionally, the data could influence broader global economic sentiment, introducing an element of uncertainty into the market. Investors may be compelled to reassess their strategies as they grapple with the dual forces of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential upward move, and the potential headwind created by the Chinese economic data. As the market navigates the interplay between these factors, market participants are likely to proceed with caution, recognizing the need for a balanced perspective when assessing the future trajectory of palladium futures. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:PA1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
🎯 Palladium to Platinum Metal Spread vs. American BigTech IndexThe breathtaking rally in palladium appears to be coming to the end. Rising supply and slowing demand are undermining the price of a metal used to neutralize car exhaust emissions. Palladium, once the cheapest of the major precious metals, soared from under $500 an ounce in 2016 to over $3,400 last March, leaving platinum and gold far behind. The reason for the rally was growing demand from automakers who needed more palladium per vehicle to meet tightening emission standards. However, supply could not keep up, resulting in huge shortages for some. And no less huge profits for others. Now this is changing. Electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need palladium are gaining more market share, and automakers are replacing some of the palladium with cheaper platinum in ICE vehicles. Meanwhile, the supply of recycled cars is growing as those with more palladium are being scrapped more and more. Palladium has fallen to around $1,600 an ounce, shedding more than 50 percent from its 2022 highs, and analysts are predicting an average price of just $1,150 an ounce in 2027. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that demand from automakers will fall by about 400,000 ounces between 2022 and 2027, while supply from car recycling will increase by 1.2 million ounces, with demand for palladium almost 90% dependent on automotive industry. This will push the market at around 11 million ounces per year to a near-million ounce surplus in 2027, they said. Russia's Norilsk Nickel, which accounts for appr. 38-40% of the world's palladium supplies, said its palladium production will fall by 8-14% this year. Techical picture indicates Palladium to Platinum metal spread erases as much as 50 percent vs. its peaked near 3.0 in 2022, whereas the Bearish market in Palladium has fully launched. The similar case has happened in early 00s when Palladium to Platinum ratio lost more than 90 percent over decade, as well as Nasdaq - major american BigTech index. Will the history fully repeat itself. Or will be written in a rhyme. Lets see.
NYMEX:PA1!
by Pandorra
Palladium Outlook for the Next 3 MonthsSpot palladium is the physical form of palladium that is traded on the spot market. It is not a futures contract, and it is not subject to the same margin requirements as futures contracts. This makes spot palladium a more attractive option for investors who want to avoid the risks associated with futures contracts. The outlook for spot palladium in the next 3 months is uncertain. On the one hand, the global economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2023, which could put downward pressure on palladium prices. On the other hand, there are a number of factors that could support palladium prices in the coming months. These include: Rising demand from the automotive industry: Palladium is a key component in catalytic converters, which are used to reduce emissions from vehicles. As the global economy grows and more vehicles are produced, demand for palladium is expected to increase. Supply constraints: The supply of palladium is relatively limited, and there are concerns that supply could be further constrained due to sanctions against Russia, a major producer of palladium. Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain elevated in the coming months, which could make palladium an attractive investment for investors seeking a hedge against inflation. Overall, the outlook for spot palladium in the next 3 months is uncertain. However, there are a number of factors that could support palladium prices in the coming months. Investors who are looking for a hedge against inflation or supply constraints may want to consider investing in spot palladium. How to Trade Spot Palladium There are a number of ways to trade spot palladium. One way is to buy and sell physical palladium bars or coins. This is the most direct way to invest in palladium, but it can also be the most expensive. Another way to trade spot palladium is to buy and sell futures contracts on the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Futures contracts are a type of derivative that gives the buyer the right to purchase or sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on a specified date. Options contracts are another way to trade spot palladium. Options contracts give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date. How to Trade Spot Palladium Options There are two main types of spot palladium options contracts: call options and put options. Call options give the buyer the right to purchase a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date. Put options give the buyer the right to sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date. The price of a spot palladium option contract is determined by a number of factors, including the strike price, the expiration date, and the volatility of the underlying palladium price. The strike price is the price at which the buyer of the option can purchase or sell the palladium. The expiration date is the date on which the option contract expires. The volatility of the underlying palladium price is a measure of how much the price of palladium is expected to fluctuate over time. To trade spot palladium options, you will need to open an account with a brokerage firm that offers options trading. You will also need to deposit funds into your account. Once your account is funded, you can place orders to buy or sell spot palladium options contracts. Hedge Positions with Speculative Trading on the Stock Exchange Companies that use palladium in their production process can hedge against the risk of changes in palladium prices by trading on the stock exchange. For example, a company that uses palladium in its production process might buy shares of a company that mines palladium. This will help to protect the company from rising palladium prices, as the value of its shares will likely increase when palladium prices go up. Companies can also use options contracts to hedge against the risk of changes in palladium prices. For example, a company that uses palladium in its production process might buy put options on spot palladium. This will give the company the right to sell palladium at a specified price, even if the market price of palladium falls. This will help to protect the company from losses if palladium prices fall. Speculative trading on the stock exchange can be a risky proposition, but it can also be a way for companies to profit from changes in palladium prices. However, it is important to remember that speculative trading is not a guaranteed way to make money. Companies should carefully consider the risks and rewards before engaging in speculative trading. Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses. Rating: Mixed Outlook Risk Disclaimer! The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice! The Trade Academy R&D Team Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by TheTrade_Academ