WHAT IF WE ARE IN A BIG CRYPTO DOWNTREND? If you want to be top 10% do the opposite of 90% .
I'm constantly asking myself what majority of investors think and do at the moment.
Are they buying? Or maybe selling?
Last couple of months I would say that majority of investors were placing buy positions.
Why?
-Some of them had mindset of "halving is just around the corner, I will invest x amount of money and in one year I will make x amont of money"
-Institutions are in the game, mainstream media hyped this up. "They probably know what are they doing, I don't want to miss the train again"
-Geopolitical tensions
-Elections
-Influencers and social media caused a lot of hype about the bull run.
Would you dare to go against all of this?
Small amount of people probably did.
Personally I'm waiting for a pullback for sure, because we are in 1,5 year uptrend without any pullbacks. We saw all time high before halving which is something new for us.
As I posted on my X account couple of weeks ago, I'm expecting extreme fear below 20 or even lower before any continuation to the upside.
Everytime 2 months before halving correction happened and fear and greed index fell below 20. This time this scenario did not occured. We had fear and greed index on 90 1 month before halving when price was at 68.430$ .
Who bought at 68.430$ (place of extreme greed = 90) is -10% in drawdown. In my opinion this does not hurt that much, we need deeper pullback in my opinion.
What could happen to push price lower?
I don't know, but I do know that in near future crash can occur. Everything is at the ATH right before elctions, while war going on between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, China and Taiwan , Houthis attacking ships at the entry to the most important transportation sea way (suez canal) , ...
Anything can happen but most important questions is "what and when?"
This is only my point of view and some of my thoughts at the current levels.
This post is not a financial advice!
Do your own research before investing/trading.