Lower high, channel should finally break (lower)It's holding the channel for now, but with a lower high, this DAX may be ready for a turn lower.
DE40 trade ideas
DAX H4 | Falling to swing-low supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,176.48 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 21,897.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 22,811.89 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Germany 40: Entering a Period of Big Event RiskIn some ways it was no surprise to see the Germany 40 index fall 1.8% yesterday, which was its biggest drop for well over 2 months. After all it has been quite a rally to start the year and there had to be some profit taking at some stage, surely!
The rally has seen multiple record all-time highs hit, supported by an improving earnings backdrop, hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine, delays to the trade tariffs threatened by President Trump and rate cuts from the ECB.
However, some uncertainty has started to creep in across this new trading week about the ability of the Germany 40 index to sustain this current uptrend. President Trump has talked about imposing import tariffs of up to 25% on imports of automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which could start in early April, not good news for the German exporters.
ECB committee member Schnabel suggested in an interview with the FT, that the ECB will have to discuss taking a break from rate cuts soon, or even consider stopping altogether, which cast some doubt on market expectations for ECB rate cuts across the rest of the year, while the cost of peace in Ukraine also doesn’t look as positive for European nations as it potentially did only a week ago.
Oh, and there is an election in Germany over the weekend, which while initially supporting gains in the Germany 40 index at the start of 2025 on optimism the country may loosen its strict borrowing rules, has now reached a reality check moment, given that election outcomes rarely run smoothly. For a deeper dive into the potential market impacts of the upcoming election, check out our 2025 German Federal Election Preview.
For a deeper dive into the potential market impacts of the upcoming election, check out our 2025 German Federal Election Preview.
So, with this in mind, accompanied by the preliminary February PMI survey updates tomorrow for Germany (0830 GMT) and Eurozone (0900 GMT), event risk and the potential for volatility moving into to next week is elevated.
Looking at the Technical Picture.
After what has been an extended phase of price strength during February, the German 40 index finally saw a correction develop on Wednesday, as a possible reaction to over-extended upside price conditions materialised.
However, we all know, prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or downside. It could even be argued that this weakness within an uptrend, is a healthy correction that unwinds upside extremes before further price strength emerges, and that may be the case for the Germany 40, as long as important support levels remains intact.
So, is this latest weakness a normal limited reaction to over-extended upside conditions, or has an important high been posted at 22936 on February 19th, from which an extended phase of price weakness may develop?
Currently, this is an impossible question to answer with anything more than a low conviction outlook but monitoring the key support levels moving forward may help us to establish the next directional themes.
What are the German 40 Index Support Levels to Monitor?
If the sell off was to extend further to the downside then it may be worthwhile for traders to watch how well Fibonacci retracement levels of the February advance perform as support levels.
The 38.2% retracement stands at 22236, which could mark an area where buyers materialise again. However, this point giving way may in turn lead to a continuation of recent weakness towards 22020, which is the deeper 50% retracement.
Closing defence of 22020 could be watched, as while intact, it’s possible further attempts to extend positive themes may be on the cards, which could even lead to retests of the 22936 February 19th all-time.
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Will DAX go for another all-time high?It seems that geopolitics are the key driving force of the MARKETSCOM:DE30 bulls. The current news on a possible end of the war in Ukraine is helping boost trader morale. Let's dig in!
XETR:DAX
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DAX Intraday Trading Opportunity: Technical AnalysisSetup
🔍 Buy Stop Order: DAX
Entry: 22623.88
Stop Loss: 22507.25
Target 1 (1:2 R/R): 22856.14
Target 2 (1:3 R/R): 22972.23
Technical Analysis
The DAX is maintaining its internal bullish structure and trading above yesterday's Value Area High (VAH) at 22574.15, setting up for a potentially strong breakout. We're looking for price to break out of the current Asia session range and push toward the previous week's Point of Control (POC) at 22868.52.
Current price action shows strong buying pressure with multiple technical confirmations:
Price consolidating above key support levels
Positive momentum on oscillators (45.41 RSI)
Trading above all major moving averages on the intraday timeframe
This should present a clean 1:2 risk-reward trade to our first target. If buyers maintain control, we could see price push past the previous week's Value Area High (22921.25) and potentially form new all-time highs beyond 23000.
Market Context
www.tradingview.com
The DAX constituent heatmap confirms that components within the index are performing relatively positive today, supporting our bullish thesis. Key sectors showing strength include technology and industrials.
Risk Assessment
The market is the market - if we fail to get a clean breakout of the current range (22550-22650), expect another move lower to collect sell-side liquidity resting at the previous week's Value Area Low (~22340). This would potentially create a mid-week reversal pattern (typical on Wednesdays) to take out the previous week's low.
Trade Management
Partial profit taking at 1:2 R/R (~22856)
Trail stops to breakeven after first target hit
Let remainder run for 1:3 R/R to 22972.23
Watch volume profile for signs of exhaustion at resistance levels
Key Levels to Watch
Support: 22507.25 (Stop level), 22531.39 (Recent low)
Resistance: 22868.52 (Weekly POC), 22921.25 (Weekly VAH)
Ultimate target: 22972.23 (Weekly high)
Trade responsibly and adjust your position size according to your risk tolerance.
GER30: Riding the Breakout Wave to Profit!Concise Trading Plan: GER30 Bullish Breakout (M30)
📌 Trade Idea:
🔹 Long (Buy) GER30 based on a bullish breakout.
📍 Entry:
✅ Market Order around 22,540.00
🚨 Stop Loss:
🔻 22,513.00 (Below recent swing low)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
✔️ TP1: 22,722.66 – Partial Profit / Move SL to breakeven
✔️ TP2: 22,795.68 – Partial Profit / Tighten SL
✔️ TP3: 22,917.28 – Final Target
📊 Risk Management:
🔹 Position Size: Adjust to risk 1-2% of capital.
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable, especially to TP1 (~1:6.7).
🔹 Monitoring: Track price action, be aware of volatility & news events.
📖 Rationale:
✅ Bullish breakout, clear TP levels, and strong risk-reward potential.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
🚨 Trading involves risk. This is a plan, not financial advice. Conduct your own analysis before executing trades.
4-hr German40: Further Drop to Attract Buyers at Cheaper Price The primary stock market index in Germany is undergoing a correction, mirroring the recent downturn in US markets. After rebounding from the critical 38% Fibonacci retracement level, it struggles to generate upward momentum, with the price remaining below the immediate support at the 23% Fibonacci level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to signal an extremely oversold condition, suggesting that further downside movement remains likely. Given this technical setup, we anticipate an additional decline toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement, coinciding with the key support region around 22,000. This level presents an optimal entry point for our long positions, allowing us to limit potential drawdowns while improving our risk-to-reward ratio. To manage risk effectively, we will maintain our stop-loss (SL) at a standard distance of 1.5% from the entry price. For profit-taking, we aim for a target just below the previous high, around 22,800, ensuring a well-balanced trade setup.
DAX LONGWe didn’t get the chance yesterday. We came very close to a bullish setup, which is why I published the idea, but then the whole thing collapsed. However, there was no opportunity for a proper short either, according to our system.
Today, we’re revisiting Germany’s leading stock index, as it seems the stars are finally aligning. An hourly sellside level was taken out, which is enough for us to establish a foundation. The 30m -FVG within the excessive 30m counter-swing has been reversed, so we’re no longer concerned about opposing pressure. The first 6m +OB has already been mitigated, and the second one — located above the 30m +IFVG — can serve as our variable 2. As a bonus, we’ve got a retest of the 30m +IFVG as well.
As soon as we see a flip in the order flow on the 2m timeframe and the first confirmed buyside delivery above the 6m +OB, all three of our timeframes will be in alignment. At that point, we can enter a long position, aiming to take partials at the liquidity pools marked with the blue lines, with the ultimate target at the 30m -FVG.
A sell-side level on the 6-minute timeframe was taken out about half an hour ago, so we’re well within the operational window for the combustion phase.
DAX INTRADAY coiling, retest of 61.8% FibThe DAX (DE40) equity index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the breakout level, previous resistance, and now a new support zone.
The key trading level is at 21780 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the 61.8% Fib retracement zone from the 03rd Feb ’25 lows to the 19th Feb high. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21780 level could target the upside resistance at 22400 followed by the 22705 and 22900 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 21780 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21585 support level followed by 21060.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX BUYRetesting NWOG and reclaiming a 30m +OB, then rebalancing a 30m +FVG while respecting it with candle bodies. Moving through a 30m +IFVG thus confirming that the extreme opposing pressure is no longer a concern. Bumping into a 30m -RB that is now facilitating a pullback. A 6m +OB has already been formed above the 30m +IFVG which adds to our bullish case. Liquidity has been taken on the 6m an hour ago leaving us still with some time to enter until the respective combustion phase is completed. All we need is a retest of the split (equilibrium) zone of the validation 2m range and a solid delivery candle above the zone. Right now, price decided to retrace a little bit deeper but the finger is already on the trigger, so to say. Our target is the open 30m -FVG overhead that sits within our major shooting range.
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GER40 "Germany 40" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 3H timeframe,
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 22700.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
🟡Macro Economics
The global economic slowdown is expected to continue in 2025, with a forecast of 3.0% global GDP growth rate. This slowdown may impact the German economy, leading to a potential decrease in demand for the Euro.
🟣COT Report
The latest COT report shows that non-commercials (speculators) are net long 10,000 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment.
🟠Sentimental Market
Retail traders have a bullish sentiment towards GER40, with 60% being long. Institutional investors have a bearish sentiment towards GER40, with 55% being short.
🔵Positioning
Institutional traders are holding short positions in GER40, indicating a bearish sentiment. Retail traders are holding long positions in GER40, indicating a bullish sentiment.
🟢Overall Outlook
GER40 is expected to trend bullish in the short term, driven by the bullish sentiment among retail traders and the European Central Bank's accommodative monetary policy stance. However, the pair may experience a short-term correction due to the bearish sentiment among institutional traders.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
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DAX40 responds boosted by ElectionsBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The German DAX stock index has experienced a remarkable upward momentum today. The results of the German federal elections have generated optimism in the markets. The strength shown by the CDU/CSU, reaching 28.5% of the vote and positioning Friedrich Merz as a key figure, has reinforced the expectation of a stable, pro-business government. This outcome has been well received by the markets, as greater political and economic stability is anticipated in the country, a fact that has been reflected in the DAX, which has risen more than 0.7% at the start of the day, as investors are confident that a predictable political environment will favor the economy and strategic sectors, such as automotive and technology. At the same time, the euro has reached its highest level in a month, trading at $1.0528 against the dollar. This appreciation of the European currency reflects the renewed confidence in the German economy and the euro zone in general, following the election results.
However, despite the initial enthusiasm, there are some challenges ahead. The new coalition government will have to address issues such as economic stagnation and external pressures, including U.S. trade policies. The ability of the new government to implement fiscal and economic reforms will be crucial to maintain market confidence over the long term.
In the first hours of trading, the DAX registered an increase of more than 1.54%, reaching 22,584.80 points in the first hours of pre-market trading prior to the opening. This optimism is partly due to the expectation that the CDU/CSU will form a “grand coalition” with the SPD, thus avoiding the participation of extreme right-wing parties such as AfD, which obtained 20.8% of the votes. The possibility of a stable, pro-business government has strengthened investor confidence. The automotive sector has been one of the biggest beneficiaries in this context. Manufacturers such as BMW and Volkswagen have experienced increases in their shares of 2% and 1.6%, respectively. In addition, companies such as Deutsche Bank and SAP have also shown positive returns in the market.
Looking at the chart, the support of the last impulse is located at 21,950 points, with the current support at 22,115.26 points. The current high is around 22,945.01 points. Today the mood begins with strength in Europe, so we will have to see if this positivism is transferred to the rest of the day, although it does not seem that in the opening hours the enthusiasm has been maintained. If we look at the value of the current control point is located around 22517 points. RSI is slightly oversold at 44.48%. Relying on last Thursday's checkpoint. The crosses of averages seem to be showing a possible crossing of the 50 and 100 average. If this happens, a price drop to the support zone to test price would be foreseeable. If this does not happen we may see a new test of the current high resistance.
In summary, the DAX has reacted positively to the election results in Germany, driven by the prospect of greater political stability and a pro-growth government. However, it will be essential for the new administration to effectively address economic and geopolitical challenges to sustain this momentum going forward.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
GER40 ULTIMATE
GER40 – Week of Feb24th
Disclaimer: This document is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Markets carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
1. Executive Summary
Overall Standing:
• Macro Regime (Eurozone): Growth near stagnation (~0–1%), with the ECB recently shifting to a more accommodative stance (marginal rate cut in January). Inflation ~4–5%, still above target but off the peak. Monetary policy is cautiously easing, providing some support for equities.
• Institutional Stance: Speculative sentiment remains cautious amid uncertain growth, yet corporate earnings (especially in export sectors) have held up better than feared. Liquidity conditions in Europe are still moderate despite ECB’s ongoing (but slow) QT.
• Technical Trend (Weekly/Daily): GER40 is in a structural uptrend, with higher highs/higher lows since 2022. However, short-term charts show a correction from recent highs (~23,000 area).
Strategic Bias:
• Long-Term: Bullish, as price holds above key weekly/daily supports.
• Short-Term: Corrective pullback on 4H/1H charts—watch if support at ~22,000–21,900 holds or breaks.
The following sections lay out the macro context, near-term catalysts, and the technical scenarios (both bullish continuation and potential deeper correction).
2. Eurozone Macro & Market Sentiment
2.1 Macroeconomic Overview
• Growth: Eurozone GDP growth around 0–1%. Germany in particular has flirted with recession in prior quarters, but data remains mixed.
• Monetary Policy: The ECB cut rates 25 bps in January (deposit rate to 3.00%). While slow to shrink its balance sheet, some mild QT is in progress. Overall, policy is turning more supportive compared to last year’s tightening cycle.
• Inflation: Eurozone inflation remains sticky at ~4–5%. Energy price relief helped, but core services inflation is still elevated.
• Earnings/Valuations: GER40 companies trade at a relative discount compared to U.S. peers. Industrial exporters benefit from a slightly weaker euro but remain sensitive to global demand conditions.
• Liquidity & Positioning:
• Credit Spreads: Not overly stressed in Europe—no signs of a major corporate credit crunch.
• Institutional Flow: Hedge funds remain cautious about Europe, but stable to improving risk sentiment can lead to rotation into cheaper valuations.
• Consumer Weakness: Germany’s consumer confidence remains fragile, but not collapsing.
Implication
A 50/100 macro score for the Eurozone implies a neutral environment: low growth but decent policy support, cheap valuations, and subdued credit risk. From a purely macro lens, GER40 can keep rallying if global sentiment improves or the ECB remains accommodative, but renewed recession fears or higher core inflation can weigh on the index.
2.2 Market Sentiment & Flow
• ETF Flows: European equity funds have attracted modest inflows in recent weeks, especially as some investors search for value outside the U.S.
• Options: Put/Call ratios remain around 0.7–0.8, indicating no extreme panic or euphoria.
• Dark Pool / Margin Debt: Less publicly visible than in the U.S.; no immediate signs of credit or margin stress specifically for DAX.
Implication
Overall investor mood on Europe is “cautiously constructive,” with a mild shift into undervalued European markets. But growth concerns still linger, so any negative catalyst may spark renewed caution.
3. Economic Calendar (Eurozone & Key Global Events)
(Adjust dates for your specific week.)
Date Event Likely Impact on GER40
Mon German IFO Business Climate Core gauge of German corporate sentiment.
Tue Flash Eurozone PMIs Manufacturing/Services data can shift DAX.
Wed ECB Policy Meeting or ECB Speaker Remarks Any signal of further easing/hawkish pivot.
Thu US GDP / US data releases (if any) Indirect—large German exporters react to U.S.
Fri Eurozone CPI Flash (if scheduled) Key inflation data affecting ECB stance.
Additional Catalysts
• Geopolitical: Any escalation or resolution in Ukraine tensions, new trade policy moves from the U.S. or China, etc.
• Corporate: Major German industrial/auto sector earnings updates could swing the DAX.
4. Technical Overview: GER40
4.1 Higher Timeframe (Weekly & Daily)
1. Trend:
• Weekly & daily charts show a clear uptrend since 2022, with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
2. Moving Averages:
• GER40 trades above the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs on both weekly and daily. The 10 SMA on daily is near current price, indicating the index is in a short-term pullback.
3. Momentum Indicators:
• Weekly RSI ~70 (slightly overbought but still constructive), daily RSI cooling from ~70 to the 60 range. MACD on daily has a short-term bearish cross but remains above zero.
4. Support Zones (Weekly/Daily):
• 21,700–21,900: Key daily support, overlapping a bullish order block, roughly 38–50% Fib from the last major swing.
• 21,000–20,800: Deeper daily support near the 61.8% Fib.
• Larger weekly support extends into the mid-/upper-19k region if the index had a bigger correction.
5. Resistance Zones:
• 22,900–23,000+: Recent swing high region.
• Beyond ~23,000, the index is near all-time or multi-year highs, so there is “open air” above.
4.2 Lower Timeframe (4H & 1H)
1. Short-Term Trend:
• 4H/1H show a corrective phase: lower highs/lower lows from ~23,000 top.
2. Momentum:
• 4H RSI near oversold (~30–35), MACD in negative territory. 1H RSI also oversold, indicating a bounce is possible soon.
3. Immediate Levels:
• 22,000–21,950: Intraday support (4H 100 SMA & 61.8% Fib from the swing).
• 22,350–22,550: Overhead pivot/resistance from prior breakdown.
4. Key Takeaway:
• The short-term structure is downward, but the index is approaching strong support areas where a bounce could occur within the larger uptrend.
5. Price Action & Key Levels
Below is a quick-reference table:
Zone Type Notes
23,000+ Weekly Resistance Recent swing high, near top of channels & Bollinger on the weekly.
22,400–22,550 4H Resistance Broken support → new overhead pivot. Reclaiming it indicates short-term bulls are back.
22,000–21,950 Key Intraday Support Confluence of 4H 100 SMA, 61.8% Fib, volume node.
21,700–21,900 Major Daily Support Daily bullish OB & 38–50% Fib zone. A daily close below ~21,700 signals deeper correction risk.
21,000–20,800 Deeper Daily Support ~61.8% Fib area. If the pullback extends here, it’s still within a larger uptrend.
6. Core Trade Scenarios
6.1 Bullish Continuation
• Context: The bigger picture is bullish. A short-term oversold reading on 4H/1H suggests a potential bounce if key supports hold.
• Entry Ideas:
1. Aggressive:
• Buy dips near 22,000–21,950 as soon as a 1H/4H bullish pattern appears (hammer, engulfing, RSI hooking up).
• Stop: Just below 21,900.
• Targets: T1 = 22,400–22,550 pivot, T2 = 22,900–23,000 swing high.
2. Moderate:
• Wait for a 4H close above ~22,300, confirming the index is reclaiming lost ground.
• Stop: Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., ~21,900).
• Targets: T1 = 22,550, T2 = 23,000.
3. Conservative:
• Require a daily close back above 22,400–22,500, plus momentum signals (RSI >50, daily MACD hooking up).
• Stop: Below the daily support at ~21,700 if giving more room.
• Targets: T1 = 23,000, T2 = possible extension if weekly uptrend resumes.
• Invalidation:
• A decisive daily close below ~21,700–21,600. That suggests a deeper correction could unfold, negating near-term bullish entries.
6.2 Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction
• Context: 4H/1H are in a downtrend. If 22,000 support fails or bounces fail at key pivots, a bigger drop to 21,700–21,600 or even 21,000 is possible.
• Entry Ideas:
1. Aggressive:
• Short a retest near 22,300–22,400 (broken support → resistance) if price fails with a clear bearish candle.
• Stop: Above 22,550.
• Targets: 22,000, then 21,700 if momentum continues.
2. Moderate:
• Wait for a 4H close below 21,900–21,950. That break confirms the immediate support is lost.
• Stop: Above 22,100 or above the breakdown pivot.
• Targets: 21,700 T1, 21,000 T2.
3. Conservative:
• Require a daily close below 21,700 (key daily fib/demand zone).
• Stop: Above 21,900 or the breakout retest.
• Targets: 21,000 (61.8% Fib) or lower if the daily trend truly flips.
• Invalidation:
• A strong intraday or 4H close above ~22,550, with bullish momentum and RSI crossing 50, would undermine a deeper correction thesis.
7. Risk Management & Position Sizing
1. Volatility: GER40 can move ~200–300 points per day (Daily ATR ~270–300). Adjust stop widths/position sizes accordingly.
2. R:R Ratios: Aim for 1:2 or better, especially given Europe’s potential for volatility around data releases.
3. Timeframe Alignment:
• If trading in line with the Weekly/Daily uptrend (long dips), you can risk a bit more. If shorting a bounce in a bullish environment, consider smaller size.
4. Partial Profit Strategies:
• Take partial profits at T1 (first major S/R), move stop to breakeven, let the remainder run if momentum persists.
8. Tactical Insights & Extra Notes
1. Watch European Economic Releases
• Weak PMIs or a negative GDP surprise could accelerate a correction. A positive surprise might catalyze a bounce.
2. ECB Policy Rhetoric
• The ECB’s tilt toward easing has been supportive for German equities. If inflation remains sticky, any hawkish shift might hurt the DAX.
3. Correlation with Euro
• A weaker euro tends to help Germany’s exporters (autos, industrials). If EUR/USD rallies, it could weigh on the DAX, and vice versa.
4. Sector Performance
• The GER40 includes industrial heavyweights, consumer goods, and some financials. Watch leadership from auto or machinery sectors for clues about export demand.
5. Geopolitical Risk
• Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe or new trade disputes can influence German business sentiment quickly.
9. Conclusion & Action Steps
The GER40 has enjoyed a robust uptrend but is currently experiencing a short-term pullback from its highs. The macro environment is neutral to slightly supportive, with the ECB no longer aggressively tightening and valuations in Germany more attractive relative to U.S. equities.
• Baseline Approach:
• Buy-the-dip around 22,000–21,900 if intraday price action confirms a bounce.
• Or short on a failed retest of 22,300–22,400 if the short-term downtrend persists.
• Key Risk Point: A daily close below ~21,700–21,600 signals a deeper correction. A reclaim above ~22,550 reaffirms bullish continuity.
Combine these levels and strategies with disciplined stop-loss placements, mindful position sizing, and real-time news tracking—especially for Eurozone data. By following these guidelines, you’ll be prepared for multiple outcomes in the GER40 during this pivotal phase of its trend.
Good luck trading the German DAX (GER40) this week!
GER40The GER40, also known as the DAX 40, is a stock market index that represents the performance of 40 major German companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It serves as a benchmark for the German economy and is heavily influenced by macroeconomic data from Germany and Europe.
Key Points:
the DAX has shown resilience but faces resistance at higher levels. It reached an all-time high in February 2025 but has since encountered challenges in breaking through significant resistance at 22,498.3 levels
Influencing Factor such as Macroeconomic Data print ,( Positive GDP growth, employment rates, retail sales.
ECB decisions significantly impact the DAX; tightening monetary policy can pressure it downward
Global Economic Conditions,The index reacts to global economic sentiment and geopolitical tensions.
#006 Trust The Process DE30EUR Buy 1207SGT 17022025Buying DE30.
I am able to buy on Oanda now despite the market being closed now, I think it is because of some market maker privileges on Oanda's side, such as being the one who is taking the orders instead of pushing the orders to the live market.
I want to take DE30EUR on FTMO too, but I am not sure if I am able to enter on a Buy Limit or not. I will try.
Even if we are taking correlated pairs, ie. EURUSD which I have open positions from last week, and taking DE30EUR now which also has EUR in it, I think I will be ok as long as I keep my stop loss wide so that I would not get whipped out that easily.
And also another reason why I think it is ok is, I am not taking the positions together at the same time. Just like investing, you DCA regardless of if the market is your portfolio's favour or not, market highs or lows, etc. Due to this difference in time reason, their fate would be different, and we allow the fate of our positions to play out by giving it a huge enough stop loss.
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TLDR; Buying DE30EUR despite us having positions in correlated pair, EURUSD, which we entered on last week.
We will be ok even if we take correlated pairs, due to two reasons.
1st - Our stop loss is wide, allowing us to ride the whips and waves and not getting closed out that easily.
2nd - Trade like a DCA investor. We buy when we need to, rather than timing the market. Eventually, our portfolio will work balance itself out.
--- Adding on before I post ---
We fail or pass doesn't matter, what we need is data. We could take both buy and sell on different accounts and be right one way or another. Even if our original strategy is a losing one, and we lose 70% of the time, we still made 70% on the other account.
And, if the winds of change blows in our favour, and our original account suddenly becomes a winning one, then, we make more than we lost.
I think that this is where the beauty of funded accounts come into play. But I am not getting one yet. I need to work on myself first.
Besides, not all funded accounts providers are good. Stick to the popular ones. But before that, prove to yourself that you are able to balance yourself while standing up straight during the storm on a small boat while holding onto a tray of drinks.
It's not that difficult, really.
Another thing to add is, people talk alot about techniques, how to time the markets etc. Don't spend too much time on those. Those are poisonous chicken soup(like, chicken soup for the soul, but poisonous).
You might be immune to poison, but you won't be thriving unless if you are a nepo kid or trust fund baby or have some unspoken conditions that help you keep your head above the water.
For every good to come, there are abundant of unspoken conditions that has to be met. That those who made it won't tell you. Or, they don't even realise.
Two persons of similar backgrounds, one succeeding and the other still barely surviving. Don't judge the succeeding one with thoughts like, they are hardworking etc too quickly(it might be true they are hardworking). Neither judge the one who is barely surviving too harshly.
Reason being, if the one who is succeeding has all the exact conditions that the barely surviving person has, they would also be stuck at where at the same exact place as the barely surviving one.
This fact about unspoken conditions, takes ton of suffering and immersive experiences on a day to day basis for years, decades, centuries and more brew and appreciate.
Just like those bone broth sold with boat noodles in Thailand. They just top up the broth, and doesn't wash the gigantic pot.
In western "language", its called, Rome isn't build in a single day.
1228SGT 17022025
DAX difficult to sustain price levelIn the recent period, the RSI has been at an extreme level three times (H4 chart).
None of the periods lasted longer than 7-8 days.
DAX showed a 4.5-5 percent increase in all three periods.
For me, this means that a strong correction may arrive within the day/days, but also within the week.
I don't think that a rise of more than 0.5 percent is expected, and after that we will most likely reach the peak (temporary or not?...we can't know, we are not fortune tellers:)
Setup:
Sell @ MKT
Sell @ until 22950
SL @ depend on your risk management
My Long Dax Idea 21-2-2025Took a long on GER40 After the dip that happened yesterday. The fundamentals are straightforward and DAX40 scores 6 on Edgefinder. The technical setups are looking good and indicating for a possible "bottom". Now we don't really know how far this price action will take us up since the European economy is not stable, yet.
Will keep an eye on it.
