AXY possible trend changeCOT shows buying by commercial money and this chart supports possible reversal, along with gold getting some attention it might be time to start buying aussi dollar
AAAustralian Dollar Currency Index
65.30USDR
+0.14+0.22%
At close at Jul 16, 22:22 GMT
USD
No trades
AXY trade ideas
Australian Dollar Currency Index go to Bullish Australian Dollar Falls No Further On Weaker Leading Indicator
Talking Points:
1. Westpac’s Australian leading index weakened in May
2. However, the Aussie Dollar had already been knocked by Moody’s shock China downgrade
3. Bears didn’t ask for any more
The Australian Dollar was steady Wednesday despite the release of a key leading indicator which weakened this month.
The Westpac Leading Index for May slipped by 0.12% on the month, following a wafer-thin rise of 0.08% in April. This index is aggregated from nine sub-indicators of economic activity and is meant to provide a timely steer on overall economic growth. May’s was the first fall for eight months, but that bald fact disguises a lackluster twelve month run, which has seen plenty of flat months.
The numbers make uncomfortable reading for policy makers and investors but were released about the same time as news broke of a shock credit-rating downgrade for China. Obviously, China is a major commodity export destination for Australia’s raw materials. However, with AUD/USD already lower in response to Moody’s move, it seems there was little further selling after Westpac made its call.
The Reserve Bank of Australia for its partseems to be looking more at Australian house prices and wage levels as its immediate monetary policy markers. Like other commodity-linked central banks it has fretted that overseas support such as that from China may fade. Local interest-rates are already at record lows and not expected to rise this year.
Be aware, this could be fast and pretty soonIn the Daily time frame, you will see that still we are in the same channel since 2016 started. But where to go then inside that red channel we´re rebounding along? If you go back all 2016, will find the blue circles price action in the AXY to be something as a pivoting level. In the past, surpassing that level will take us very fast to reach next level. So, if a channel is still a channel in tech analysis, then my next trade will be trading the bear trend below 75.150 or EP. TP1 73.590, lets see then, and TP2 71.500. I will take first TP1.
