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+61.28+0.31%
At close at Jun 9, 23:22 GMT
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IXIC trade ideas

Daily Market Update for 3/8Summary: An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 8, 2022 Facts: -0.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26%, Body: 1% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, failed intraday rally Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin body in lower half of candle, very long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.87, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.60%), VIX (-3.62%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) at the top. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.28% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day as an intraday rally attracted bulls. The rally failed after topping 13,000 and the Nasdaq closed near where it opened. The 1% red body is below a long upper wick. The closing range was 26%. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was able to hold onto a 0.60% gain. The small-cap index gained nearly 3% intraday. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high but declined -3.62% today. Growth sectors rose to the top of the S&P 500 sector list, but only two sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) held onto gains. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Trade Balance data for January showed more imports than expected relative to exports. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected at 2.8 million barrels vs an expected shortfall of -0.833 million barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) finally pulled back from its recent gains, declining -0.16% today. US Treasury Yields gained and the gap between long term and short term yields widened some. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Oil topped $130 a barrel intraday but settled at $127. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Aluminum futures fell back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.801. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained deep in the Extreme Fear area. Three of the big six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG) climbed by +2.46%, +0.76%, and +0.57% respectively. The other three all lost around -1%, giving up intraday gains. Chevron (CVX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining +5.24%. Coca-Cola Company (KO) had the biggest loss in the mega-cap list, losing -3.96% after the company joined other corporations exiting Russia. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.07%. New energy stocks, Enphase (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) followed in the list with +10% gains. Ath the bottom of the list was CrowdStrike (CRWD), which fell -6.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead JOLTs Job Openings data for January will be available after the market opens on Wednesday. We will also get the weekly Crude Oil Inventories data in the morning. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon. MongoDB (MDB), H&R Block (HRB), and StoneCo (STNE) are some of the earnings reports tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made an attempt to get back above 13,000 today, but closed below the area, continuing a downtrend over the past five days. The one-day trend line is upward and points to the same area as the trend line from the 2/10 high. That would be a +2.13% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -1.94% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was disappointing to see the intraday rally fade, but I think we should expect more of these whipsaw moves as good news and bad news emerges over the Ukraine conflict, the oil crisis, and potential Fed actions this month. I also don't think we are at the bottom of this correction. We can expect to see 12,000 before we get a solid support area and the potential to move higher. Still, expectations are not predictions. The expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/7Summary: Investors continued to dump risky equities as the price of oil seems to have no ceiling. The Nasdaq closed more than 20% below its all-time high as it enters a bear market status. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 7, 2022 Facts: -3.62%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 95% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Huge decline on high volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Tiny upper wick over huge red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every one advancing Indexes: SPX (-2.95%), DJI (-2.37%), RUT (-2.48%), VIX (+13.98%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.48%) and Utilities (XLU +1.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -4.90%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to dump risky equities as the price of oil seems to have no ceiling. The Nasdaq closed more than 20% below its all-time high as it enters a bear market status. The Nasdaq dropped another -0.362% as it approaches the low of 2/24. Volume was higher than the previous day to mark another big distribution day for the index. The candle is 95% red body under a tiny upper wick. The closing range of 1% marks an intraday that was in nearly constant decline. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -2.37%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.48%. The VIX Volatility Index soared +13.98% to close again at its highest point since February 2021. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors avoided losses for the day. Energy (XLE +1.48%) continued to climb and Utilities (XLU +1.30%) benefited from its defensive status when equities our out of favor. Growth sectors of Technology (XLK -3.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -4.90%) were again at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.74%. 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose, but the gap between long-term and short-term yields tightened, meaning the short-term outlook is still lower. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell sharply. Brent Oil rose above 120, its highest level in 10 years. The safe-haven of Gold reached $2000, its highest level since August 2020. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.751. The CNN Fear & Greed index is well in the Extreme Fear area. All big six mega-caps declined for the day. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, losing -6.91% and switching positions again with Taiwan Semiconductor in the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were the top mega-caps for today, gaining +3.60% and +2.14%. Nvidia was the worst in the mega-cap list. There were only a handful of stocks in the Daily Update Growth List that gained today. Robinhood (HOOD) topped the list with a +4.20% advance. Six stocks in the list dropped more than 10%. Niu Technologies (NIU) dropped by -16.86% on investors' concerns over margin contraction due to higher material costs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for January comes in the morning. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock updates arrive after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 13,000 support area, only pausing at that level briefly. Zooming out much longer term for the Nasdaq, the 40 month EMA tends to be a bottom, except in extreme corrections like the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 financial crisis. The index dipped just below the 40m EMA in 2020. On the current course, we would meet up with the 40d EMA at around 12,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, that would mean a +2.56% advance for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.60% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.21% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq enters a bear market. How long will this one last? Much still depends on what's happening in Ukraine. But other factors including the Fed interest rate hikes and possible solutions for soaring oil prices may have a positive or negative impact as well. For tomorrow, the expectation is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Early signs of recession When the West were cheering Russian sanctions, seems that no one consulted them properly with people that have to make key economic decisions on regular basis like J Powell. For anyone interested I recommend this article www.zerohedge.com . While current continuation into more established bear market might look like any other short term turn to risk off, the angle and consistency at which stock markets are dropping paired with information like above does suggest we are only at the beginning. My next target for a short term bounce is around 12000, but if things go as some data suggests I would not be surprised to see us closer on IXIC to 10000. If you follow me already on TV, but would like to get a weekly dose of crypto related information and analysis in the future please sign up below thecryptog.substack.com
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by gigisulivan
Daily Market Update for 2/15Summary: Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 15, 2022 Facts: +2.53%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 86% Green Good: Higher volume upward move with breadth gains (A/D ratio), closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, small lower wick, gap up at open Advance/Decline: 3.32, more than three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.58%), DJI (+1.22%), RUT (+2.75%), VIX (-9.28%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes. The Nasdaq gapped up at the open and closed the day with a +2.53% gain. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day but lower than the 50-day average. The candle has an 86% green body and a 98% closing range. A small lower wick formed at mid-day before the index rallied into a close. There were more than three stocks that gained for every stock that declined. Small-caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +2.75%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.22%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell by -9.32% but remained elevated. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose for the day. Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) were the only two to decline. Energy fell as the crisis eases in the Ukraine and pressures on oil prices alleviate. Economic data was not great for today. The Producer Price Index numbers for January were higher than expected, signaling further inflation coming for consumers. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February was lower than expected, printing 3.10 against the forecast of 12.15. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.32%. 30y and 10y US Treasury Yields advanced while the 2y yield declined, putting at least a pause on the flattening yield curve. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices improved while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold fell sharply as investors moved back to riskier assets. Crude Oil Futures declined on the Ukraine news. The put/call ratio declined to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.32% to close above its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla (TSLA) topped them all with a +5.33% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, advancing +9.18% today. The three mega-cap oil companies were at the bottom of the list. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Shell (SHEL), and Chevron (CVX) all lost more than 1%. Sea Limited (SE) bounced back from yesterday's huge loss, gaining +15.78% today and topping the Daily Update Growth List. Investors sold the stock yesterday on news that one of its popular games would be banned in India. They came back today after giving it a second thought and seeing Cathie Wood's Ark Investment firm buy into the dip. There was only one loser, Zynga (ZNGA), on the growth list. The company declined -by 0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring Retail Sales data for January. Sales dipped more than expected in December and are expected to recover last month. We will also get Industrial Production and Business Inventories for January, both indicators for the economy. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers will be available after the market opens. Tech giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Cisco (CSCO) report earnings tomorrow evening. Applied Materials (AMAT), Shopify (SHOP), Synopsys (SNPS), Hilton (HLT), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Trade Desk (TTD), DoorDash (DASH), Hyatt (H), Quantamscape (QS), Crocs (CROX), and Fisker (FSR) are among others reporting tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped up and gained throughout the day, closing below the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the trend line from the 1/24 low, it would mean a +1.18% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.50% advance. The five-day trend line ends with a -3.12% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up With Russia removing some troops from Ukraine, a conflict seems less likely. That helped ease oil prices and worries about even more inflation on top of already high inflation. The gap between long-term and short-term yields widened as the short-term outlook turned slightly better. There's still a lot of reason to expect volatility over the next few months. The dynamics looked good today, but there are unknowns with the Fed that won't start to be resolved until next month. For tomorrow, the expectation is Higher or Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best target for correction♻️Hello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. In this index, the waves have ended in a higher stage than other indicators and have started to correct in a higher stage. In this index, waves 1, 2 and 3 are over and correction for wave 4 has started. If we want to compare Wave 4 with Wave 2, we must say that Wave 4 will have a shallow correction, but its current structure is not like this and it gives the possibility of deepening. Wave 4 is likely to form in the form of a zigzag, and this zigzag will take a long time to complete like a flat. We are still inside wave a of this zigzag and we thought wave a would be completed on Fibo 0.38. From wave a, the microwaves 1, 2, 3, and 4 are over, and wave 5 has another drop to 0.38 for Fibo. Correction begins after the trend line is broken. If the specified warning range is broken upwards, the corrective structure is different. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
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by mahdisoltaninjad
3
Daily Market Update for 3/4Summary: Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 4, 2022 Facts: -1.66%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 54% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Distribution on higher volume, barely within yesterday's range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer lower wick, most candle below yesterday's candle Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.79%), DJI (-0.53%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+4.92%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.89%) and Utilities (XLU +2.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising. The Nasdaq fell -1.66% on higher volume than the previous day, marking another session of distribution by institutions. The candle is almost entirely below the previous days candle. The longer lower wick formed from two intraday dips and a rally in the final minutes of the session. There is a short upper wick above the 54% red body and a 34% closing range. More than two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.79% and -0.53%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.92%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.89%) topped the list followed by the four defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.21%) was second on the list. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) were at the bottom. Jobs data was very positive with Nonfarm Payrolls rising 678,000 in February compared to the forecast of 400,000, driven mostly by private payrolls. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% against the expectation of 3.9%. The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with the index (DXY) rising +0.80% today. Treasury yields showed a bleak outlook, with long-term yields dropping sharply while short-term yields dropped less significantly, the gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowing. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Brent Oil topped $115 a gallon, reaching its highest price since 2013. Copper and Aluminum futures, as well as many commodities, continue to rise sharply. The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.828. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped further into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3 this week. All big six mega-caps endured another day of losses. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining by only -0.12%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, dropping by -3.28%. Of all mega-caps, Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the best gain, climbing by +3.76% to top the mega-cap list. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.78% decline. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List ended the day with gains. Chewy (CHWY) advanced by +2.91% and GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained by +0.13%. There were plenty of big losers in the list. At the bottom of the list was DoorDash (DASH), declining -11.62% today, perhaps on concerns over higher fuel costs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news to kick off the week on Monday. All eyes will remain on the Ukraine war. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance All three trend lines point to a decline for Monday with an average of -0.30%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Let's hope and pray for some good news over the weekend on the war in Ukraine. Not for the market, but for the people who are in danger as their homes and neighborhoods are bombarded with missiles and heavy artillery. Take care of yourself and your family during these very scary times. The expectation for the Nasdaq for Monday is Lower. Stay healthy and stay safe!
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by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/3Summary: Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 3, 2022 Facts: -1.56%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 82% Red Good: Higher high. Reduced volume on lower close Bad: Big red body, low closing range, lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-1.29%), VIX (-0.85%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies. The Nasdaq fell by -1.56%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 82% red body with no upper wick. The 18% closing range comes after a small lower wick formed in the last thirty minutes of the open market. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.29%, helped by strength in large cap companies in safe-haven sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.52%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.29%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -0.85% today. Seven of eleven sectors ended the day in the positive, dominated by the safe-haven / defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) were the top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) were that the bottom. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than the previous week and less than forecast, coming in at 215,000 compared to the expected 226,000. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was lower than forecast, registering 56.5 against the forecast of 61.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.38%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the US 2y Yield gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil remains high at around $110 per barrel. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise sharply. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.826. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3. All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) which has led both rallies and pullbacks declined the most, falling by -4.61%. Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +2.30%. Shell (SHEL) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.99%. Only two of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Beyond Meat (BYND) and Zynga (ZNGA) advanced +1.11% and +0.22%. Three stocks dropped more than 10%. Cloudflare (NET), MongoDB (MDB), and Snowflake (SNOW) dropped by -13.19%, -14.26%, and -15.37%, respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Payrolls data and the Unemployment rate for February will be available before the market opens tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index touched above the 21d EMA this morning, but then receded back to around 13,500. The five-day trend line points to a +0.89% advance for Friday. The one-day trend line and trend line from the 2/10 high end with a -1.28% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Ukraine crisis is driving more fears of inflation, but Jerome Powell promises to keep with the plan of a quarter-point rate hike in March. Still, the market is driven by the more immediate fear of the war intensifying. The outside day is representative of the hope and the fear in the market now. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/1Summary: The price of oil was the only winner on the first day of March. Investors fled for safe havens as Brent Oil surged 9% and topped $100 a barrel. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 1, 2022 Facts: -1.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 55% Red Good: Stayed above Friday's low Bad: Lower high, lower low from Monday, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Medium red body in middle of candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.63, Three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (-1.55%), DJI (-1.76%), RUT (-1.93%), VIX (+10.51%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) at the top. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The price of oil was the only winner on the first day of March. Investors fled for safe havens as Brent Oil surged 9% and topped $100 a barrel. The Nasdaq declined -1.59% on slightly higher volume than Monday, which was already high. The 55% red body sits in the middle of the candle. The slightly longer lower wick formed from a short rally just before close. The rest of the day was mostly selling. The closing range was low at 27% and there were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the worst losses, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -1.93%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.76%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.55%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +10.51% having its highest close since January 2021. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +1.01%) advanced. Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) was the next best sector, followed by defensive sectors. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Manufacturing Index for February showed a pickup in activity, registering 58.6 against the forecast of 58.0. The US Dollar (USD) index rose sharply, increasing by +0.67%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined while the gap between long-term and short-term yields remained about the same. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices improved. When HYG moves opposite Treasury prices, the outlook is dimming. Gold and Silver prices also soared. Gold reached its highest point since January 2021. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.719. Perhaps some investors see a temporary pullback here. The CNN Fear & Greed index is well into the Extreme Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant loss, declining by -3.72%. Chevron (CVX) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising by +3.97%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -4.85%. On the Daily Update Growth List, Workday (WDAY) was the top performer, rising +4.92% after beating earnings expectations and providing positive guidance. Sea Limited (SE) disappointed investors with a higher than expected loss per share. The stock plunged to the bottom of the growth list, losing -13.12% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment change for February will be available before the market opens on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak around 10 am. Crude Oil Inventories data come mid-morning. Veeva Systems (VEEV), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Splunk (SPLK), and Box Inc (BOX) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq was not able to break through the 13,800 resistance area in the morning, declining thru the rest of the day before a quick rally before the close. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.53% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high point to a -2.02% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The outlook for the economy dimmed as oil prices soared today. The reaction could be felt by investors moving into safe havens such as the US Dollar and Treasury Bonds as well as Gold and Silver. High Yield Corporate Bond prices dropped, signaling the lower outlook for US companies amid the higher oil prices. Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow and investors will listen closely to how the Fed might react to the crisis in Ukraine, soaring oil prices, and what it might mean for inflation and the economy. The expectation is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
US market crash Every seven years, inflation will rise sharply, US market crash Every seven years, inflation will rise sharply, watch out for a stock market crash from mid-March to May SIULUNG once said that 2022 is the cycle of US stocks falling every seven years, starting from 1966 and falling every seven years thereafter, including 1973 when the world suffered the "first oil crisis", 1980 when inflation caused the stock market to plunge, 1987 when the US stock market crashed, 1994 when the US interest rate hike caused the bond massacre, 2001 when the 9/11 incident caused the US stocks to plunge, and seven years later The financial tsunami in 2008, and the fall in Hong Kong A-shares in 2015, while US stocks also retreated by about 3,000 points. Believe it or not, US stocks also fell sharply as SIULUNG said. Many people have asked why there is no March 2020. According to the Austrian economist Peter Schumpeter, there are three different types of cycles in the economy: long, medium and short. The short cycle is about 40 months, the three short cycles form a medium cycle and the 18 short cycles form a long cycle. The cycle affecting 2022 is the seven-year cycle, while the cycles affecting 2020 are the 30-year and 60-year cycles. NASDAQ:IXIC So are US stocks done falling yet? Bruce has many predictions for the future, as he mentioned earlier: "According to current market estimates, the most common forecast is for the US to raise interest rates four times in 2022, but Bruce strongly believes that there may be more than four times, and that the pace of tapering will exceed expectations. "Will interest rate hikes alone bring down the stock and property markets? We can't rule out the possibility that something like the first oil crisis will suddenly happen and push up inflation in the US, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates faster than everyone expects. "According to the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture, Ukraine is the world's second largest exporter of barley, fourth largest exporter of corn and fifth largest exporter of wheat in the 2019-2020 market year. If the crisis does worsen, will energy and food prices rise sharply? And how will the Federal Reserve react? As SIULUNG said, if the US Fed misjudges inflation, will the US raise interest rates as it did in the 1970s? Using the gold ratio, the NASDAQ has just rebounded after a 0.382 gold ratio pullback, which may indicate short term support at this position. The chart below shows that SIULUNG US stocks have already issued a sell signal, the last buy signal was issued in 2020, so be careful. If it falls below 0.382/12928 again, then the Nifty will head for the 0.5/0.618 gold ratio, which is 11717/10507. And we have to be careful as there is a chance of a stock market crash in the mid-March to May 2022 cycle, so we have to be careful or options may be a suitable tool. Please follow me.
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by ericresearchgann
Daily Market Update for 2/28Summary: Markets responded to more sanctions on Russia issued by Europe and the United States over the weekend. Treasury yields declined as the demand on the US dollar and US bonds lifted prices. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 28, 2022 Facts: +0.41%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 77%, Body: 69% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, positive close on more volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body, longer upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.01, one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.24%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (+0.35%), VIX (+9.28%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.47%) and Industrials (XLI +0.77%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.48%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.72%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets responded to more sanctions on Russia issued by Europe and the United States over the weekend. Treasury yields declined as the demand on the US dollar and US bonds lifted prices. The Nasdaq finished a choppy day with a +0.41% advance. Volume was much higher than the previous trading day. The candle has a 69% green body. The longer upper wick formed with a morning rally, but the index returned to the morning lows before another rally in the afternoon took it to a 77% closing range. There was an equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only other index to gain, with the small-cap index advancing +0.35%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.24% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -0.49%. The VIX Volatility Index climbed by +9.32%. Only four of the S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +2.47%) was the big winner as oil prices continue to rise. Industrials (XLI +0.77%) was the next best sector. Financials (XLF -1.48%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.72%) were the bottom two sectors. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.21%. Long and short-term Treasury Yields all dropped as investors bought up bonds as a place to park US dollars. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked higher along with treasuries (yields drop as prices rise). The put/call ratio dropped to 0.748. The CNN Fear & Greed index slipped back into Extreme Fear. Five of the big six mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) was the only decline but did close higher than intraday lows and near its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.50% to close above its 21d EMA and 200d MA. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain, climbing by +7.48% today but hitting resistance at its 21d EMA. The company appears on track to open a factory in Germany in March. Tesla was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Chevron (CVX) which gained +3.09%. JP Morgan Chase was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.17%. Also near the bottom was Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) which continued its decline with a -3.79% loss today. On the Daily Update Growth List, two stocks gained more than 10%. Solar Edge (SEDG) climbed by +14.93%, possibly due to worries over oil shortages. Chewy (CHWY) gained +11.79% to come in second on the list. At the bottom of the growth list is Alibaba (BABA) with a -2.55% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing data from ISM will be available after the markets open on Tuesday. Salesforce.com (CRM), Target (TGT), Sea Unlimited (SE), Baidu (BIDU), AutoZone (AZO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), McAfee (MCFE), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and Kohls Corp (KSS) are among the earnings reports tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq touched above the 13,800 support/resistance area in the morning but closed below that area by the end of the day. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a -0.65% decline for tomorrow. The trend line from the 2/10 high ends with a -4.08% decline for Tuesday. If the current uptrend continues, I'll replace this with a trend line from the 2/24 low. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Depending on what you read, the financial impact of sanctions on Russia should be sending equities lower. It certainly has the expected impact on the dollar and bonds. But so far, our favorite index continues to march higher. But there certainly could be more downside in the near future as the story plays out in Ukraine. Things look good. Three days of gains, two on higher volume. The advance/decline line is over 1.0 for those three days and the closing ranges have been great. I think investors may take an opportunity here to take profits and so tomorrow I'd expect a Sideways or move Lower before we see further gains. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/25Summary: Markets followed the strong rebound on Thursday with one more push higher on Friday. With sanctions announced and a more modest impact than expected on oil prices, investors are buying up stocks at low prices. Still, the question remains if this week was the bottom. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 25, 2022 Facts: +1.64%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 62% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium lower wick under large green body Advance/Decline: 2.47, five advancing stocks for every two declining Indexes: SPX (+2.24%), DJI (+2.51%), RUT (+2.25%), VIX (-9.00%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +3.65%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +3.22%) at the top. Communications (XLC +1.62%) and Technology (XLK +1.36%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets followed the strong rebound on Thursday with one more push higher on Friday. With sanctions announced and a more modest impact than expected on oil prices, investors are buying up stocks at low prices. Still, the question remains if this week was the bottom. The Nasdaq climbed +1.64% today. Volume was lower than the previous day when investors rushed back into equities. Still, the long lower wick that formed at the opening dip progressed into a 62% green body and a 99% closing range. The higher high and higher low helped end the volatile week with a gain and the first positive week for the index in the last three. There were five stocks that advanced for every two stocks that declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the top index with a +2.51% thanks to the rotation back into cyclical sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) grew +2.24%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.25%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped by -9.00%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Materials (XLB +3.65%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +3.22%) were the top-performing sectors Communications (XLC +1.62%) and Technology (XLK +1.36%) were at the bottom. Durable Goods Orders for January were higher than expected, a good sign for those worried about a slowing economy. On the other hand, the increased demand continues to drive prices higher with the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) outpacing the forecast by 0.1%. Personal Spending in January was up by 2.1% compared to a 1.5% forecast. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment were also higher than expected, signaling a happy consumer despite higher prices. Pending Home Sales dropped by -5.7% in January compared to a forecast of 1.0% growth. That could be due to the Omicron spike in COVID cases. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell back by -0.52% after spiking the previous day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for the day while the 2y yield fell. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices rose for a second day. Oil prices continued to fall back after topping $100 a barrel on Thursday morning. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.820. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range but remains close to Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 44.41. All big six mega-caps gained today. Nvidia (NVDA) had the biggest gain, rising +1.72%. Amazon (AMZN) closed above its 21d EMA with a +1.61% gain. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was the top mega-cap, rising by +4.97%. The top three include United Health (UNH) and Procter & Gamble (PG). Even with such great performance, the Health sector (XLV +3.06%) was still only the fifth-best of the eleven sectors. Only three mega-caps declined with the worst loss being Alibaba (BABA) which fell by -0.91%. The Daily Update Growth List had some big winners and big losers. Block (SQ) soared +26.14% after the company beat earnings expectations and provided rosy guidance for 2022. Etsy (ETSY) rose +16.21%, also on a good earnings beat. Sea Unlimited (SE) shares rose by +11.98% after the Singapore government petitioned India about why it blocked the companies app along with Chinese apps. The biggest loser in the list was Zscaler (ZS), dropping by -15.77% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday morning will bring the goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for January. Workday (WDAY), Lucid Group (LCIDE), HP Inc (HPQ), McAfee (MCFE), and Trex (TREX) are among some of the earnings reports to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose to just below the 13,800 support/resistance area. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.64% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 2/10 high point to -2.91% and -4.33% declines, respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought the big intraday move yesterday would result in a bit of a pullback today, but the Nasdaq continued higher. Assuming the news out of Ukraine doesn't get worse, then investors' attention will move to the upcoming Fed meeting and rate hike. Many analysts are now betting on a more dovish response to inflation given the geopolitical situation. With yesterday's big move and two days of 99% closing range, the expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. However, we could get that pullback that I expected today. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/24Summary: Investors sold winners and bought losers in a pivot after tanks started to roll into Ukraine. Risk appetite grew as many of the unknowns got answers in the form of sanctions by Western countries. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 24, 2022 Facts: +3.34%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 99% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body with a small upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.45, three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.50%), DJI (+0.28%), RUT (+2.67%), VIX (-2.26%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.42%) and Communications (XLC +2.80%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.20%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.72%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold winners and bought losers in a pivot after tanks started to roll into Ukraine. Risk appetite grew as many of the unknowns got answers in the form of sanctions by Western countries. The Nasdaq gained +3.34% after swinging more than 7% from the intraday low to the close. Volume was significantly higher than the previous day. The powerful move resulted in a 99% green body and a 99% closing range. There is no lower wick and only a short upper wick. Nearly three stocks advanced for every two stocks that declined. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best index with small-caps gaining +2.67% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +1.50%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) managed a +0.28% but was weighed down by investors rotating out of Financials and Energy stocks. The VIX Volatility Index soared over 20% intraday but closed the day with a -2.26% decline. The sector list flipped over mid-morning, sending growth sectors to the top and defensive sectors to the bottom. Seven of the eleven sectors ended the day with gains. Technology (XLK +3.42%) and Communications (XLC +2.80%) were at the top of the list. Financials (XLF -1.20%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.72%) were at the bottom. Crude Oil Inventories came in higher than expected, easing some worries about shortages and helping bring prices back down. Initial Jobless Claims was lower than the forecast, showing a strong labor market. GDP Price Index data for Q4 was adjusted up to 7.2% compared to an expectation of 6.9%. New Home Sales for January was less than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) soared +1.60% intraday but ended the day with a +0.89% gain and lower than its previous high close in January. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold declined. Brent Oil rose by +8.44%, reaching above 100, before pairing gains and closing below 100 with a +1.18% gain. Timber closed lower. Aluminum futures rose sharply. The put/call ratio rose to 0.893. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just above Extreme Fear in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 44.41. All big six mega-caps gained for the day, all with spectacular intraday swings on high volume. Nvidia (NVDA) had the biggest gain, jumping by +6.08%. Tesla (TSLA) swung almost 15% from intraday low to high, closing the day with a +4.81% gain. Adobe (ADBE) was the top mega-cap for the day with a +8.00% gain. The top of the list is dominated by big tech, all gaining over 4%. At the bottom of the list is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) with a -3.47% loss. The loss is in contrast to other semiconductor stocks. All but one stock in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. Eleven of the stocks gained over 10%. Cloudflare (NET) climbed by +18.66% to top the list. Security stocks did well on anticipation that new cyber-attacks would be launched by Russia-affiliated groups. Only Alibaba (BABA) declined for the day, falling by -0.72% as investors continue to expect the impact from China's new regulatory actions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow's economic data includes PCE Price Index data for January which will give another read on inflation. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data for February will be available after the market opens. Pending Home Sales for January will also be released mid-morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq broke below the critical 13,000 support area, but then rallied back above the area. The index then sat above 13,000 support for a few hours before getting a fresh rally in the afternoon. The intraday move created a one-day trend line that points at a +3.83% gain for Friday. If the index pulls back to the trend line from the 2/10 high, it would mean a -3.37% decline. The five-day trend line points to a -4.92% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The trend lines are showing some extremes from a +3.83% gain to a -4.92% decline. That's a lot of volatility (positive or negative) and certainly is possible given the environment. More likely will be some indecision and up and down around the current level as investors continue to watch the situation play out in Ukraine. After a big powerful move, a pullback is also common. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
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Daily Market Update for 2/23Summary: Tensions in Ukraine continue to escalate while the market continues to fall. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 23, 2022 Facts: -2.57%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 95% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Closing range, huge red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Tiny upper wick above large red body. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.35, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.38%), RUT (-1.82%), VIX (+7.67%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.03%) and Health (XLV -0.50%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.34%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tensions in Ukraine continue to escalate while the market continues to fall. The Nasdaq declined by another -2.57% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is 95% red body with a tiny upper wick and no lower wick. The closing range of 1% comes after a day of unending distribution. There were nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.82%. The VIX Volatility Index continued higher, climbing by 7.67% today. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only the Energy (XLE +1.03%) gained for the day. Growth sectors of Technology (XLK -2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.34%) had the most significant losses. Consumer Price Index data in Europe for January met expectations. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was much higher than forecast, possibly showing a softening in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.13%. All Treasury yields were higher with the curve about the same. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were lower. Gold and Silver are on the rise again as safe havens. Timber (WOOD) is sharply lower over the past two days. The big six mega-caps had another day of large losses. Tesla (TSLA) dropped the most, declining by -7.00%. Nvidia declined by -4.29%, moving below Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) in market cap. Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list with a +2.38%, helping the Energy sector end the day with gains. Exxon Mobil (XOM) also helped with a +0.41% gain. Only four mega-caps were positive at the end of the day. Tesla had the most significant decline, ending up at the bottom of the list. Also only four stocks in the Daily Update Growth list gained for the day. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Penn National Gaming (PEEN) topped the list with +5.59% and +2.38% after rival Caesars Entertainment (CZR) said they would pull back on marketing sports betting. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -7.55% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Revised Q4 GDP and GDP Price Index data will be made available in the morning. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be released before the market opens. After the market opens, we will have New Home Sales for January and Crude Oil Inventories. Fed officials Bostic and Mester are scheduled to speak in the morning. Both are historically more on the Dovish side. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) releases earnings tomorrow. Intuit (INTU), Moderna (MRNA), Block (SQ), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dell Tech (DELL), American Electric Power (AEP), Coinbase (COIN), Zscaler (ZS), and Rocket (RKT) are also among a fairly long list of earnings reports for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance 13,000 is a significant support/resistance area. The Nasdaq closed just above that point today. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, that would mean a +1.19% advance for Thursday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.79% decline. The one-day trend line leads to a -2.73% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All eyes remain on Ukraine. It's been interesting to watch futures instead of the news. Any change in the conflict immediately shows up in futures prices and then one needs to wait a few minutes before it pops in the headlines. The expectation is for Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/22Summary: Investors sold off high-risk assets as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 22, 2022 Facts: -1.23%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 36%, Body: 12% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, low advance/decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in lower part of the candle between long upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.38, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.01%), DJI (-1.42%), RUT (-1.45%), VIX (+3.82%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.11%) and Health (XLV -0.25%) at the top. Energy (XLE -1.62%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold off high-risk assets as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.23% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long upper and lower wick that surround a 12% red body resting just below the mid-point of the daily range. The closing range was 36%. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) had the smallest losses, declining by -1.01%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) suffered the worst losses, declining by -1.45%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.42%. The VIX Volatility Index climbed by +3.82%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Utilities (XLU -0.11%) and Health (XLV -0.25%) held up the best. Defensive sectors were the favorite today. Energy (XLE -1.62%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%) were at the bottom of the list. On brighter news, economic data was positive. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index for February showed a pickup in activity over January and beat forecasts. CB Consumer Confidence for February also beats expectations, coming in at 110.5 compared to 110. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.07%. The US 30y Treasury yield remained about flat while the 10y and 2y yields rose, narrowing the gap between long-term and short-term treasuries. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.890. That is still in a bearish range but lower than the 1.05 ratio on Friday. All big six mega-caps declined for the day. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest decline, losing -4.14% today. Microsoft (MSFT) rallied to intraday gains but ended the day with a -0.07% decline. AbbVie (ABBV) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.52%. Home Depot (HD) was at the bottom of the list with a -8.85% decline. The company beat revenue and earnings expectations but provided guidance showing slower growth in 2022. Roku (ROKU) bounced back from last week's post-earnings losses with a +8.46% gain today, landing at the top of the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list with a -11.21% loss after more regulatory pressure from China scared off investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead European inflation data arrives overnight. Otherwise, there is no economic news for the US before the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes in the afternoon. Lowe's (LOW), Booking (BKNG), TJX (TJX), eBay (EBAY), NetApp (NTAP), and NiSource (NI) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq chopped up and down today but ended the day lower. The low was still higher than the 1/24 low. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, it would mean a +0.06% gain for tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -1.42% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There is not much to do but watch what happens in Ukraine. There is still room for indexes to go lower on further increased tensions. If some resolution can be found, perhaps we can find a bottom and see some constructive period heading into March. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
DEATH CROSS PRINTED ON FRIDAY- LOOK OUT BELOW!!!Nasdaq along with many individual stocks I am short printed an official death cross on Friday. If you don't know what that is, it's time to close all your positions and find another line of work. A death cross is a textbook SELL signal, no more "buy the dip" and hope stock market of overpriced high flying money losing companies courtesy of the perpetual money printing of the FED. We are in an unofficial bear market with the averages but confirmed on many individual stocks. Nothing but headwinds on the horizon. And, without the federal reserve backstopping this bubble the bubble will continue to burst, as it should! I have traded bear markets before, they are not fun. It doesn't mean to get short anything and everything and wait, bear markets do not work that way and are met with many violent rallies on the way down.
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by ShortSeller76
Daily Market Update for 2/18Summary: Worries over Ukraine caused another day of losses to cap a volatile week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 18, 2022 Facts: -1.23%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 28%, Body: 63% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower higher, lower low, lower close all on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body, longer lower wick, low closing range Advance/Decline: 0.54, almost two declining stocks for every advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.68%), RUT (-0.92%), VIX (-1.28%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%) and Financials (XLF -0.03%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.83%) and Technology (XLK -1.01%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Worries over Ukraine caused another day of losses to cap a volatile week. The Nasdaq closed lower by -1.23%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The longer lower wick formed in the morning before the index bounced off intraday lows. A failed rally in the afternoon left behind a 63% red body and a 28% closing range. There were almost two declining stocks for every stock that advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.72%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -0.68%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.92%. Despite the declines in the major indexes, the VIX Volatility Index closed lower by -1.28%. Today's volatility was less than the previous day that saw significant losses across the market. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, with the top sector being a safe haven. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%) and Financials (XLF -0.03%) were the two gaining sectors. Industrials (XLI -0.83%) and Technology (XLK -1.01%) had the most significant losses. Existing Home Sales for January were higher than expected. 6.5 million homes sold compared to the forecast of 6.1 million. As expected, the Fed's John Williams was much more optimistic about inflation than officials who spoke earlier in the week. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.32%. US Treasury Yields all declined as investors poured into the safer instruments. The yield curve is flattening again as the short-term outlook sours against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasury prices higher (yield down, prices up). Gold remained at recent highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) topped 1.0 again, ending the day at 1.05. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. The put/call component of the CNN index is broken and, if working, would probably put the overall index near or within Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dropped to 53.49 from 66.8 the previous week. All big six mega-caps declined today. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped -3.53%, getting support at its 200d moving average. Besides Nvidia, only Tesla (TSLA) remains above its 200d MA despite a -2.21% decline today. Cisco Systems (CSCO) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.58% on further momentum after its earnings report earlier this week. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.37% loss. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List, Netflix (NFLX) and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained for the day. Netflix gained +1.19% while D.R Horton advanced +0.83%. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Roku (ROKU) were at the bottom of the list, declining more than -20% after disappointing investors with guidance outlook in their earnings releases. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead U.S. Markets will be closed on Monday for President's Day. Tuesday will kick off with February Manufacturing and Service Purchasing Managers Index data just after the market opens. Shortly after that, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers for February will be available. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) will be the big earnings report to start the week. Also reporting on Tuesday will be Home Depot (HD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Nu Holdings (NU), Teladoc (TDOC), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved lower, not showing much support at any levels yet. If the index returns to the five-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high, we can expect a +0.44% gain for Tuesday. If the one-day trend line continues, expect another -0.71% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Right now, we are almost entirely dependent on the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. Certainly, investors did not want to hold riskier assets over a three-day weekend with the tensions still elevated. The expectation for Tuesday is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
IXIC (NASDAQ) - February 18Hello? Traders, welcome. If you "follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a nice day. ------------------------------------- (IXIC (NASDAQ) 1W chart) (1D chart) The 12998.50-13429.98 section is a strong support section, and a sharp rise is expected when this section is touched. If there is a sharp rise, you should check for movement above the 13770.57 point. With the volatility around February 18-23 (up to February 17-24), it is necessary to check if the movement is similar to the path drawn on the chart. ------------------------------------------ We recommend that you trade with your average unit price. This is because, if the price is below your average unit price, whether the price trend is in an upward trend or a downward trend, there is a high possibility that you will not be able to get a big profit due to the psychological burden. The center of all trading starts with the average unit price at which you start trading. If you ignore this, you may be trading in the wrong direction. Therefore, it is important to find a way to lower the average unit price and adjust the proportion of the investment, ultimately allowing the funds corresponding to the profits to be able to regenerate themselves. ------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. Therefore, it is important to be aware that the indicator will move accordingly as price and volume move. However, for convenience, we are talking in reverse for the interpretation of the indicator. ** The MRHAB-O and MRHAB-B indicators used in the chart are indicators of our channel that have not been released yet. (Since it was not disclosed, you can use this chart without any restrictions by sharing this chart and copying and pasting the indicators.) ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options to the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the traditional Stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.) ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment. (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.) ---------------------------------
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by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 2/17Summary: The Ukraine crisis continues to shift and cause volatility in the market. Safe haven metals and defensive sector stocks benefited from the investor flight to safety. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 17, 2022 Facts: -2.88%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 4%, Body: 91% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Distribution day, closing range, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.12%), DJI (-1.78%), RUT (-2.46%), VIX (+15.73%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.68%) and Technology (XLK -2.99%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Ukraine crisis continues to shift and cause volatility in the market. Safe haven metals and defensive sector stocks benefited from the investor flight to safety. The Nasdaq declined -by 2.88%. Volume was higher than the previous day but lower than the 50-day average volume. The candle is 91% red body with tiny upper and lower wicks. The selling was steady throughout the day, leaving the candle with a 4% closing range. There were three stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq had the largest loss, weighed down by big tech. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was next, giving up -2.36% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 2.12% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) gained +15.73%. Only two defensive sectors gained for the day, Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%). The worst-performing sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.68%) and Technology (XLK -2.99%). Building Permits for January were higher than expected while Housing Starts were lower than expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February was at 16, short of the forecasted 20. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast. There were 248,000 claims compared to the expected 219,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) was nearly flat, climbing just +0.02%. US Treasury Yields all declined and the curve flatted a bit on the near-term economic worries. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Gold prices rose sharply, gaining +1.56% today. Silver gained +1.08%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.846. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dropped to 53.49 from 66.8 the previous week. All big six mega-caps declined for the day. Tesla (TSLA) dropped the most, declining -by 5.09%. Meta (FB) lost -4.08% and dropped below Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) in market capitalization. The big six will exchange Nvidia (NVDA) for Meta (FB) starting next week, but TSM may pass Nvidia. Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap, gaining +4.01% after an earnings beat and surprisingly positive outlook. Nvidia (NVDA) held above TSM in market cap despite declining by -7.56% today and landing at the bottom of the mega-cap list. DoorDash (DASH) soared to the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +10.69% after revealing strong growth in orders and providing positive guidance. Only two stocks in the growth list gained. The rest of the list saw some huge losses. Fastly (FSLY) dropped -33.63% after earnings. Earnings beat expectations but the guidance was much lower than street expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The morning will bring Existing Homes Sales data for January. FOMC Member Williams is scheduled to speak tomorrow. He is typically more dovish than members such as Bullard who is calling for aggressive interest rate hikes. Earnings reports tomorrow include Deere & Company (DE), Campbell Soup (CPB), and DraftKings (DKNG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 13,800 support/resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +1.44% advance for Friday. A return to the trend line from the 2/10 high points to a +0.51% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line ends with another -1.67% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Most everything hinges on the shifting status of the crisis in Ukraine. Until that is fully resolved we can continue to expect volatility. Before Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the Nasdaq hit an all-time high and then correct about -10% during the conflict. This year, the Nasdaq already corrected -20% so will it go lower or just stay around this level until the conflict is resolved? The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
NASDAQ Potential for Double TopThis is very speculative atm but a scenario I can see playing out from here and would take time to develop. 1. We get a bounce from here (would be helpful if tension with Russia subsides) and retest bottom of channel. (break back into channel and pattern would turn into more of a broadening wedge) 2. Rejected at bottom of channel and reverse back down to start forming double top. 3. If neckline is broken, PT is listed for the M pattern breakdown. Also note the rounded curve tapering off the accelerated upward movement. This is just one possible scenario to watch for... —————————————————————————————— Top 10 trading tips: 1. DO NOT FOMO into a trade. Let it come to you. Don’t force it. 2. Find a strategy that works for you and be consistent. Operate like a machine and less like the wind. 3. Let your winners run and cut your losers short. 4. You will not win every trade, but if you are disciplined with great RM you don't need to be right all the time to win! 5. Before you enter a trade, know your target AND your exit strategy. 6. When you are up, you can use a trailing stop or trim off some profit at a logical resistance point with a stop loss at breakeven. 7. Set your trade parameters up front so you keep your self accountable and remove emotions from the equation. (stop loss, take profit levels, etc) 8. Don't fight the trend. The trend is your friend. 9. Don’t enter a trade based on one indicator. 10. Horizontals > Diagonals Please note: - This is not financial advice. - I do not take every trade I post. - Never trade off of someone else's chart until you DYOR!
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by DaCryptologist
Daily Market Update for 2/16Summary: Indexes took a breather from the big gains on Tuesday while the market awaited the Fed meeting minutes and the world contended with the shifting situation in Ukraine. Investors rotated profits in mid-caps into small-cap and large-cap bets today, focused on value and cyclical stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 16, 2022 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 37% Green Good: Higher high, good closing range, advance/decline above 1.0 Bad: Lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large lower wick underneath a medium green size body. Small upper wick. Advance/Decline: 1.12, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.09%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.49%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.81%) and Materials (XLB +0.73%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.10%) and Communications (XLC -0.70%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes took a breather from the big gains on Tuesday while the market awaited the Fed meeting minutes and the world contended with the shifting situation in Ukraine. Investors rotated profits in mid-caps into small-cap and large-cap bets today, focused on value and cyclical stocks. The Nasdaq ended the day with a -0.11% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a 37% green body in the upper half resulting in an 83% closing range. The longer lower wick formed right after opening and the index didn't recover until mid-afternoon when the Fed meeting minutes were released. There were more advancing than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day, gaining by +0.14%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.09% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.16%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -by 5.49%. Energy (XLE +0.81%) and Materials (XLB +0.73%) were the top sectors. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined, Technology (XLK -0.10%) and Communications (XLC -0.70%). Economic news was positive, depending on your point of view. Retail Sales for January exceeded the forecast. Core Retail Sales climbed 3.3% month-over-month. The expectation was 0.8% growth in sales. On one hand, it's good to see consumer spending continue but on the other hand, it could cause further price increases as demand continues to outpace supply. Industrial Production for January was also higher than expected. It grew by 1.4% compared to a 0.4% forecast. The Fed meeting minutes to January did not contain any surprises. The Fed will begin raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet in March. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.21%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined and the gap further widened as investors become more comfortable with the economy in the near term. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both increased. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.893. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral but remained in the Fear range. Three of the big six mega-caps advanced. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest jump with a +1.02% gain. Meta (FB) fell another -2.02%. We may need to replace Meta with Nvidia, which now has a higher market capitalization. Novo Nordisk (NVO) had the largest gain in the mega-cap list, rising +1.79% today. Meta was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Only a small number of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained for the day. DataDog (DDOG) was at the top of the list with a +2.92% gain. Fiverr (FVRR) had the most significant loss, dropping by -10.69% and landing at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for January will be available in the morning. We'll also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims come tomorrow as well. Earnings reports for tomorrow will include Walmart (WMT), Palantir (PLTR), Roku (ROKU), and Redfin (RDFN). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened lower but then recovered in the afternoon after investors found no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes. The one-day trend line meets up with the trend line from the 1/24 low at a +1.15% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line results in a -1.97% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We thankfully had no surprises in the Fed meeting minutes for January. That provided some solid ground for investors to stand on. However, the situation in Ukraine continues to shift as mixed signals come from Russia on whether they are reducing troops on the border. The outside day today keeps yesterday's gains intact, and with the high closing range, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
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by drewby4321
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