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IXIC trade ideas
Daily Market Update for 10/8Summary: Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, October 8, 2021
Facts: -0.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 8%, Body: 88% Red
Good: Decline on lower volume, stayed above 14,500 support area
Bad: Lower high, lower low, selling most of day
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.19%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (-3.94%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates.
The Nasdaq lost -0.51% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is almost entirely red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks. The 88% Red body is above an awful 8% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.03% for the day while leading the major indexes in gains for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.19%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to decline for the week, losing -0.76% today. Despite selling across the market, the VIX Volatility Index declined -3.94%, continuing to fall from its elevated level earlier in the week.
Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) were the only gaining sectors today and performed the best for the week. Energy is rising on higher oil prices while Financials is getting the benefit of higher interest rates. Next week kicks of earnings season for the big banks. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) were at the bottom of today's sector list.
The labor market added only 194,000 payrolls in September against a forecast of 500,000. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.8%, while analysts expected 5.1%. Average Hourly Earnings grew faster than expected.
The US Dollar weakened for the day, with the dollar index (DXY) declining -0.10%. US Treasury yields rose for another day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall along with Treasury prices (prices fall, yields rise). Crude Oil Futures soared back to record highs. Timber fell, but Copper and Aluminum rose.
The put/call ratio fell to 0.734. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the middle of the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week.
Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained today, closing above its 50d moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) closed flat after climbing mid-day. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list again with a +3.54% gain. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were also in the top four, carrying the Energy sector higher.
Upwork (UPWK) was the top performer in the daily update growth list. The list contains mostly decliners today, with MongoDB (MDB) dropping the most at -5.05%.
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Looking ahead
There are no significant economic events scheduled for Monday. Next week will kick-off earnings season for big banks, but none are on the schedule for Monday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq steadily declined from the 21d EMA throughout the day but closed above the 14,500 support area.
The five-day trend line points to a +1.64% gain for Monday.
The one-day trend line ends with a -0.38% decline.
The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -1.60% loss to start the week.
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Wrap-up
It doesn't take much to cause declines in this skittish market. The lack of new payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped in September, is a head-scratcher. Add that to the research list for this weekend.
The expectation for Monday is sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
IXIC Opinion 8th October 2021Note that my opinion may be biased as I've been shorting the market indices since the beginning of September. Also note, that I don't have a crystal ball so these opinions may be wrong.
I have been bearish for quite some time and am still leaning towards bearish movements. Just briefly summarising the reasons: Treasury yields, inflationary pressure, the Techincal over-extensions on the higher timeframes, overvaluing and optimism of the general market, and the overall high influx of retail investors in the market. All of these reasons combined with intuition and observation over the past couple of years of trading have molded my current perspective on the current price action.
Daily graph:
* The bounce up can just be a reaction to price and oscillators reaching oversold regions, so dip buyers have bought up these levels for profits.
* There is now a bearish confirmation between the price action and oscillator in the troughs of both.
* There was also a bearish divergence between the tops of the price action and oscillators (I have pointed this out before which is why I was bearish in my last post)
* In the most recent trading session (7th October 2021) the candle rejected the 50 EMA moving average on the daily and closed with a weak bullish candle. Suggesting that bearish influence is stronger.
* This rise-up is done so on low volume, further supporting the idea that this rally is irrational and can break back down easily.
4-hour graph:
* Rejection of both 50 EMA and 100 EMA moving averages. Suggesting bearish momentum.
* Death cross between the 50 EMA and 100 EMA. Also suggesting bearish momentum.
* Bearish confirmation in the most recent peaks and troughs between the price action and the oscillators, further supporting the idea of bearish movements in the near future.
1-hour graph:
* Bullish divergences in the peak and troughs. This I noted before as simply a rally due to oversold regions.
* Weak momentum in price action. Unlikely to pass the EMA's.
I weigh my decisions more on the higher time frame graphs due to the greater time that it takes to build price action. Therefore, solidifying my bearish opinion.
Thanks for reading! Happy trading.
Daily Market Update for 10/7Summary: A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, October 7, 2021
Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59% (w/gap), Body: 16% Green
Good: Gap up at open and rally in morning, high advance/decline ratio
Bad: Resistance at 21d EMA, lost momentum in afternoon
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Thin green body at bottom of the candle after a gap up
Advance/Decline: 1.8, almost two advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.83%), DJI (+0.98%), RUT (+1.59%), VIX (-6.95%)
Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way.
The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.05%. After a gap-up at open, the morning rally led to a +1.75% advance. The advance met resistance at the 21d EMA and fell back from the intraday high. The candle has a thin 16% green body resting under a long upper wick. The closing range is 59%, including the gap at open. Almost two stocks advanced for every declining stock.
Small-caps did very well, advancing the Russell 2000 (RUT) +1.59% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.98%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) was up +0.83%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -6.95%.
Ten of the eleven SPDR sectors advanced today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) were at the top. The defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Initial Jobless Claims came in at 326,000 against an expectation of 348,000. The recovery for the labor market seems to be back on track.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.27%. Treasury Yields rose as well, climbing in the afternoon, which may explain the fallback from intraday highs in the Nasdaq. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices ticked slightly higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all rose or the day.
The put/call ratio dropped to 0.739 after hitting its highest point in a year yesterday. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Fear but moved further toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week.
All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) joined Microsoft (MSFT) in moving above its 21d EMA, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above its 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +8.26% gain. Investors are hoping a meeting between Biden and Xi will ease US-China tensions. Only a handful of mega-caps declined today, with Facebook (FB) sitting at the bottom of the list.
Chinese stocks dominated the top of the Daily Update Growth List. Alibaba (BABA), NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), and JD.com (JD) were the top four. Like the mega-cap list, only five stocks declined for the day, with Facebook (FB) being the worst performer.
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Looking ahead
Additional employment data will be available on Friday. The data will include Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change, and the Unemployment rate.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq blasted through the 14,500 resistance area and climbed to meet resistance at its 21d EMA line.
The one-day and five-day trend lines are moving in opposite directions but meet up at a +0.10% gain for Friday.
If the rally loses steam and the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 top, that would mean a -2.11% gain for tomorrow.
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Wrap-up
This year, we've endured multiple cases of pending doom turned into optimistic rallies when the worries ease. Supply chain woes, Inflation, Interest Rates, Employment, the Debt-ceiling are just a few of the big ones that we've pushed through.
Given the resistance at the 21d EMA, perhaps tomorrow will be Sideways. Otherwise, I'd expect Higher unless something looks wrong in the employment data.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Nasdaq trend analysisHello, everyone! This week, the price action was very interesting, with Nasdaq going down as much us 3% and filling the gap days later! Now let's take a look at the chart. We formed a short term uptrend and we are almost at the strong resistance point. If the market decides to go for a run again we will see a breakout. And that is likely. But i wouldn't recommend you to put your buy orders yet. Wait for the confirmation candle and then make your moves! Good luck!
Daily Market Update for 10/6Summary: Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Facts: +0.47%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 85% Green
Good: Higher high, thick green body, high closing range
Bad: Lower low, advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Bullish engulfing candle, Mostly green body with a small lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.41%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.60%), VIX (-1.41%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom.
Expectation:
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Market Overview
Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market.
The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.47% gain. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 97% closing range came at the end of a bullish afternoon, creating a candle with an 85% green body. The lower wick is short, while the upper wick is almost invisible. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.30%. Small-caps could not fully recover from the morning losses, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) closed with a -0.60% decline. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) remained elevated despite a -1.41% decline today.
Defensive sectors topped the sector list with Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) leading the way up. Eight of the eleven SPDR sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) are at the bottom of the list.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in higher than expected, providing a positive outlook for the labor market. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecast. Today, US Republican Senator Mitch McConnell revealed that Republicans could agree to a short-term lifting of the debt ceiling until December.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced by +0.27% for the day. US 30y and 10y yields started the day with a sharp rise but ended with a slight decline while the 2y yield rose steadily throughout the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced slightly for the day.
Crude Oil Futures pulled back from record highs after inventories were higher than expected. Timber, Copper, Aluminum all declined.
The put/call ratio soared to its highest intraday level in a year but came back down to end the day at 0.919. The high ratio shows a bearish sentiment in investors. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range from Extreme Fear earlier this week.
All four largest mega-caps gained today. Microsoft (MSFT) overtook its 21d EMA again with a +1.51% gain. PepsiCo (PEP) was the best mega-cap of the day after pleasing investors with an earnings beat and improved outlook for this year. Toyota Motor (TM ) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -3% decline.
The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List had another positive day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list for a second day, gaining 15% over the two days. Ehang Holdings (EH) was at the bottom of the list.
www.tradingview.com
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Looking ahead
Initial Jobless Claims data will be available before the market opens on Thursday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq closed at the 14,500 resistance area after the morning dip turned into an afternoon rally.
The one-day trend line points to a +1.01% gain for Thursday.
The trend line from the 9/7 high and the five-day trend line end with a -1.16% gain.
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Wrap-up
The willingness of Republicans to temporarily extend the debt ceiling until December is a positive for wary investors who were positioning for the worst. It's still not a done deal and also just pushes the deadline out for two months. But in the meantime, it shows the Republicans don't want to force the issue to catastrophe.
Based on the bullish engulfing candle and the move higher on higher volume, the expectation is for Sideways or Higher. There would be more conviction in a move higher if the advance/decline ratio showed more gains broadly across the market.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 10/5Summary: Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Facts: +1.25%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 58% Green
Good: Higher high, higher low
Bad: Later afternoon fade from intraday high
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Long upper wick over a green body covering half the candle
Advance/Decline: 1.04, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+1.05%), DJI (+0.92%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-7.23%)
Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington.
The Nasdaq advanced +1.25% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a green body covering the lower half of the range, leaving a long upper wick formed from selling right before close. The body is 58% of the candle, while the closing range is at 64%. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.05% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.92%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -7.23% but remained elevated.
Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) led the sector list. Only two sectors declined, Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%). Energy (XLE +0.58%) led in the morning, opening with a +2.43% gain before fading to end the day with a +0.58% gain. Technology (XLK +1.43%) was in close third place for the day.
While Trade Balance data was not super positive, domestic measures of the economy in the form of Services and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing activity were higher than expected.
The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining + 0.19% for the day. US Treasury yields gained for the day but do not seem to be on an out-of-control ascent that we feared late last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) prices declined. Crude Oil Futures continue to soar higher.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.627. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after hitting Extreme Fear yesterday.
All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be forming a base that could take them higher as they attempt to move back above key moving average lines. Netflix (NFLX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining over 5% and hitting a new all-time high. Merck (MRK) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day as investors took profits from recent gains.
CloudFlare (NET) and Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +6.06% gains. Most of the stocks on the list did well today. The biggest losers at the bottom of the list were Zoom Video (ZM) and Penn National Gaming (PENN).
PepsiCo (PEP) gained +0.59% for the day after beating expectations and improving their outlook for the year in a pre-market earnings release.
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Looking ahead
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tomorrow morning will show any progress in the labor market recovery. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens.
A planned vote for tomorrow on raising the debt ceiling is likely to be rejected by Republicans and could cause more volatility in the market.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq support at 14,200 in yesterday's session turned into gains today before the index met resistance at 14,500.
If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, we can expect a +1.16% gain and move above the 14,500 support/resistance area.
The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -0.47% decline for Wednesday.
The five-day trend line ends in a -0.99% decline.
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Wrap-up
The debt ceiling vote tomorrow seems already decided, with Republicans publicly rejecting the measure. Nonetheless, the drama playing out in Washington will cause volatility in the market. Based on the chart, the expectation is Sideways or Higher but prepare for a wild ride.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 10/4Summary: Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, October 04, 2021
Facts: -2.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 75% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Large decline, low advance/decline ratio, low closing range
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper wick, longer lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.29, three declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-1.08%), VIX (+8.82%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.63%) and Utilities (XLU +1.38%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.14% decline. The selling started right at the market open and continued through the morning, creating a large red body covering 75% of the candle. The lower wick formed from a slight gain in the afternoon. The closing range was 23%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better, only losing -0.94% for the day as the Energy sector helped the index. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.30%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.08%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.56% for the day.
Energy (XLE +1.63%) topped the sector list thanks to Monday morning's OPEC meeting news. The only other two sectors to gain for the day were Utilities (XLU +1.38%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%), both defensive sectors. Two growth sectors, Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
OPEC decided to hold output at current levels, predicting higher demand in the next several months. Factory Orders data released in the morning showed 1.2% month-over-month growth compared to the forecast of 1.0%.
The US dollar index (DXY) declined -0.29%. US Treasury Yields were up for the day but settled back from a morning spike that panicked investors. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices were down sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell for the day.
Crude Oil Futures was up +3.72% today. Copper and Aluminum futures also gained on the day, likely because of the higher-than-expected Factory Orders data.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped back into Extreme Fear.
All four of the largest mega-caps had significant declines for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be getting some support at their current level, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still in free-fall. Merck (MRK) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM). At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Facebook (FB), which dealt with a multi-hour outage across its large social platforms.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) and CloudFlare (NET) ended the day with gains. The worst stocks on the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), Fastly (FSLY), and FUTU Holding (FUTU), all with more than 7% declines.
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Looking ahead
Trade Balance data will be available Tuesday morning before the market opens, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will come after the opening bell.
PepsiCo (PEP) releases earnings before the market open.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq found support at a previous support/resistance level of 14,200.
If the index can regain the trend-line from the 9/7 high, that will be a +1.04% advance for Tuesday.
The five-day trend line points to a -0.26% decline.
A continuation of today's one-day trend line ends with another -1.23% decline for tomorrow.
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Wrap-up
Fear continues to grow over the debt ceiling discussion in Washington while mini-disasters play out worldwide, from the Evergrande challenge in China to the Energy crunch in the UK. Rising yields and higher inflation are bad news for Big Tech and Growth stocks.
The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
IXIC (Nasdaq ETF) - Resistance, Support, Trend - 09/05/21IXIC (Nasdaq ETF) has been uptrending since June 2021, on a daily chart.
Price has recently broken up above Trendline Support #1.
Bullish scenario:
-IXIC price continues to push up to new all-time-highs.
-Resistance levels: $15514.67, $15846.78, $16000.
Bearish scenario:
-IXIC price pulls back down to re-test both Trendline Support #1 and #2 over time.
-Support levels: $15193.63, $14994.37, $14656.72, $14457.45.
Note: On a weekly chart, price needs to close and hold above $14701 to maintain the uptrend.
Daily Market Update for 10/1Summary: Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, October 01, 2021
Facts: +0.82%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 86%, Body: 25% Green
Good: High closing range, closed above the 14,500 support area
Bad: Big dip in the morning, gain on lower volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Long lower wick under a small green body in the upper half of the candle
Advance/Decline: Not available today
Indexes: SPX (+1.15%), DJI (+1.43%), RUT (+1.69%), VIX (-8.60%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.82% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 25% green body sits above a long lower wick that formed in the morning. The index recovered to end the day with a 86% closing range. The lower high and lower low for the day continues a downtrend.
Small caps performed well for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.69%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.15%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.43%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -8.60% but remains above moving averages.
All sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) were at the top of the sector list. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) were at the bottom.
PCE Price Index data was higher than forecast, but not enough to alarm investors. Manufacturing data showed higher than expected activity. Consumer Sentiment numbers were higher than forecast.
The US Dollar index (DXY) fell for another day after hitting a 52-week high on Wednesday. Treasury yields also retreated for the day. The gap between long-term and short-term yields is widening.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.737. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after dipping to Extreme Fear earlier this week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week.
Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over +2% as investors bought big tech stocks at a discount. Merck (MRK) entered the mega-cap list with a +8.37% gain after announcing an anti-viral pill that lowers the risk of hospitalization and death in COVID patients. Walt Disney (DIS) gained +4.04% for the day after settling a lawsuit with Scarlett Johansson. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -2.60% decline.
PENN National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) were at the top of the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +4.98% gains. At the bottom of the list were RH (RH) and Lemonade (MND), both declining more than -3%.
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Looking ahead
There is an OPEC meeting scheduled for Monday morning. Factory Orders data for August will be available after the market opens.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped to 14,300 before recovering and closing above the 14,500 support area.
The one-day trend line leads to a +1.65% gain on Monday.
Following the trend line from the 9/7 high would result in a -0.40% decline.
The five-day trend line ends with a -1.90% loss.
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Wrap-up
It was nice to end the week with a gain in the markets. However, the gain came on lower volume, and the Nasdaq is still in a downtrend. Still, investors seemed optimistic about the economy as they increased bets in reopening trades and shopped for discounts in big tech stocks. It's amazing what a little pill can do for optimism. Thanks Merck!
The expectation for Monday is Sideways, while the market determines if today's low was a bottom.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 9/30Summary: The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, September 30, 2021
Facts: -0.44%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 71% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Lost support at 14,500, failed after rally precedes new intraday low
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thick red body at bottom of the candle, longer upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (-1.19%), DJI (-1.59%), RUT (-0.94%), VIX (+2.57%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.44% decline. An afternoon rally failed, and the index set a new intraday low in the last hour of trading, ending the day with a 2% closing range. The 71% red body sits at the bottom of the candle with a long upper wick formed in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking the third day of distribution for the index. There were more declining than advancing stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.59% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended a red month with a -1.19% decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.94%. The VIX Volatility Index remains high with a +2.57% gain today.
All sectors declined today. Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were the best sectors for the day and were in positive territory before the late afternoon selling. Investors see opportunities to buy growth stocks at a discount. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Revised GDP data for Q2 came in slightly higher than expected at 6.7% quarter-over-quarter. Initial Jobless Claims were worse than expected for another week and are trending higher.
The US Dollar index (DXY) fell slightly for the day after hitting a 52 week high yesterday. US Treasury Yields fell back from their recent gains. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined for the day. Silver and Gold climbed +3.03% and +1.82% as alternative safe-haven investments. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all fell sharply for the day.
The put/call ratio rose to 0.870 as investors grew more bearish. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped into the Extreme Fear area. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week.
All four largest mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) declined for the day and traded below their key moving average lines. Only a handful of stocks in the mega-cap list gained today. Netflix (NFLX) topped the list with a +1.88% gain. At the bottom of the list was Oracle (ORCL), with a -4.52% decline.
The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List did not do too bad considering the index performance, with most of the stocks in the list gaining for the day. Roku (ROKU) was at the top of the list with a +3.44% gain. RH (RH) declined sharply after topping the list yesterday, losing -4.04% today. The losses may be related to the ominous message in Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) outlook for the holiday season. During its earnings call, the company gave a bleak message, sending the stock tumbling by over 20%.
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Looking ahead
The biggest news will come overnight as Congress votes on key legislation to fund the government, raise the debt ceiling, and pass the infrastructure bill.
In the morning, inflation data will be made available for August. The PCE Price Index data comes before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll have a new ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows activity in the manufacturing sector.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dropped below the 14,500 support area. The 21d EMA crossed below the 50d MA.
If the index can return to the trend line from the 9/7 high, it would result in a +0.87% gain for tomorrow.
The one-day trend line points to a -0.15% decline.
The five-day trend line ends with a -1.08% decline for Friday.
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Wrap-up
There shouldn't be any surprises here if you've been following the updates. The indexes chopped up and down the past few days without any progress in Washington over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling. The sell-off in the last hour today was investors protecting against bad news tonight. At the same time, growth sectors led the day as some investors took the opportunity to buy positions at a discount.
Now we wait. Based on the chart and three days of distribution, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Nasdaq Composite will resume bullish trend soonIXIC is testing the 100-day moving average. Investors are worrying about the rising American bond yield and the potential of government shutdown. The American government has experienced temporary shutdown multiple times in the past, so in the long run it's not a big deal. For the short term, IXIC might drop to 14200, testing the old 16 Feb 2021 resistance line, which now serves as support.
Investors will soon realise this is not the end of the world and the noise traders will pour more money into the market from November 2021 to February 2022. The noise traders have more extra cash in the Thanksgiving-Black Friday-Chistmas-New Year season, which they will put into gambling-like activities e.g. leveraged stock option day-trading, leveraged crypto futures high-frequency trading and ESG fund buying frenzy. If you know how to time the market, their loss is potentially your gain.
As I have said before, the big picture remains extremely bullish, due to unlimited quantitative easing and heaps of novice investors jumping into the stock market. Those novice investors will spread the good news and get more of their naive family and friends into stock investing or speculating. IXIC will surely break 20000 next year, but when the Fed finally announces the dreaded news of rate hike there might be a huge crash.
IXIC will probably go up to 30000-50000 in 2024, simply because the novice investors have never experienced a major collapse in their entire investing career. They will push the stocks to unimaginable heights, then suddenly panic and painfully realise that no bullish trend could run forever. It's really all about fashion and popular story. Buying stocks is becoming more and more fashionable.
Nasdaq composite IXIC I charted the previous rising wedge (White lines) from March to show how there was a 15% correction the wedge top until it found support at 12397.
Now here we are with our current rising wedge (Yellow lines). If you calculate from our 15,400 high a 15% correction you'll come up with some support around 13,000 which would be my target once wedge support is broke .. But first we have to break wedge support at around 14,212.. As you can see that not only is there wedge support there but it also shows some strong horizontal support.
Let's see what happens.
Daily Market Update for 9/29Summary: Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, September 29, 2021
Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 10%, Body: 56% Red
Good: Held support above 14,500
Bad: Red body, lower high, lower low, close lower on high volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thick red body in lower part of the candle
Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (-0.20%), VIX (-2.97%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 10% comes after two intraday rallies. Eventually, the 56% red body in the bottom of the candle led the index to rest above the 14,500 support area at the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.26% as the NYSE had more gainers than losers for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +0.26% gain, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -2.97% but remains high.
Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) were at the top of the sector list. Investors fled to defensive sectors to protect against further volatility. Growth and cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) performing the worst for the day.
Pending Home Sales grew 8.1% in August vs. the forecast of 1.4%. Crude Oil Inventories were at 4.6 million barrels compared to a forecast of -1.7 million barrels.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.68% for the day, reaching its highest level since October 2020. Treasury Yields eased back slightly from recent gains. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices remained about the same. Silver declined -4.10% for the day. Gold also fell, losing -0.52%.
The put/call ratio dropped to 0.729. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area.
Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were able to find support and end the day with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) continued to tumble, losing another -1.09% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. The company got an upgrade from Citigroup to a Buy rating and a new price target of $265. Netflix (MFLX) also performed well, gaining +2.61% after acquiring the video gaming company Night School. Alibaba (BABA) was the worst performer in the mega-cap list, declining -3.16%.
The Daily Update growth list was mostly decliners for today. RH (RH) was the best performer, topping the list with a +1.65% gain. JD.com (JD) and Ehang Holding (EH) were at the bottom of the list, both losing more than 5% as Chinese stocks dropped lower today.
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Looking ahead
We will get an update on Q2 GDP numbers tomorrow morning. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will also be available before the market opens. Several Fed officials will speak in the morning.
Don't expect any significant updates on funding for the government or the debt ceiling until a scheduled vote late in the evening on Thursday.
Paychex (PAYX), CarMax (KMX), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are a few interesting earnings reports to watch out for tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq had two failed rally attempts today before closing just above the 14,500 support area.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 high, that would mean a gain of +0.88% for tomorrow.
The one-day trend line points to a -0.39% decline.
The five-day trend line ends with a -0.82% decline.
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Wrap-up
There is not much to do other than wait for what happens in Washington over funding for the government and the debt ceiling. A default on US debt is not likely, but fear and doubt will continue to grow until the debate finishes.
The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 9/28Summary: Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Facts: -2.83%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 87% Red
Good: Support above 14,500
Bad: Gap down at open, sell-off thru morning, close below key moving averages
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, small upper wick, smaller lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.17, almost six declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-2.04%), DJI (-1.63%), RUT (-2.25%), VIX (+23.93%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.34%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined -2.83% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is 87% red body with small upper and lower wicks, and the closing range is 2%. There were nearly six declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -2.25%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -2.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.63%. The VIX Volatility Index soared +23.93%.
Energy (XLE +0.34%) was the only sector to gain for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) was the next best sector but declined more than a half percent. The worst two sectors for the day were Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%).
Consumer Sentiment released in the morning came in lower than forecast. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen warned Congress that an economic crisis would occur if politicians did not agree to raise the debt ceiling.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest in 2021 with a +0.34% gain today. The US 2y Treasury Yield rose to its highest point since March 2020, while the 30y and 10y yields reached their highest level in three months. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply.
Gold declined as the US dollar strengthened. Crude Oil Futures continue to rise. Timber fell significantly for the day. Aluminum Futures reached back to record highs.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.836. the CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range.
The largest four mega-caps led the market lower, with all four closing below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines in a clear breakdown of support. Only two mega-caps, Alibaba (BABA) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), gained on the day. Nvidia (NVDA) incurred the most significant loss with a -4.44% decline. Technology and Communications stocks dominated the bottom of the mega-cap list.
Alibaba was also the only gainer in the daily update growth list. Cloudflare (NET) was the biggest loser in the list, with a -7.92% decline.
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Looking ahead
Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories become available after the market opens. The more important news will be any progress in Washington toward raising the debt ceiling.
Jabil (JBL) releases earnings before the market opens.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped well below its 21d EMA and 50d MA before getting support above the 14,500 area.
The one-day trend line points to another -0.61% decline for tomorrow.
A return to the five-day trend line ends with a +1.05% advance.
Getting back to the trend line from the 9/20 low would result in a +1.98% gain on Wednesday.
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Wrap-up
When we approached the Fed's tapering decision last week, I thought we might see higher yields and a 2-3% or worse decline following the news. Instead, it's taken the fear of a government default on debt to scare investors out of stocks and bonds finally.
What can we expect from here? As with all politics, we can expect a lot of drama and a long, drawn-out decision. Unless surprise progress is made, fears will only grow as we approach Janet Yellen's estimate of October 18th as the day the government will run out of funding. Yields will continue to rise as investors demand higher returns for higher risk as the government heads toward possible default. Technology and Growth stocks will continue to head lower.
The expectation for tomorrow is lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 9/27Summary: Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Facts: -0.52%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 76%, Body: 11% Green
Good: Rebound off the intraday low at the 50d MA
Bad: Close below the 21d EMA, decline on higher volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin green body in upper half of the candle
Advance/Decline: 1.26, more advancing than declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (-0.28%), DJI (+0.21%), RUT (+1.46%), VIX (+5.69%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.52% decline after dipping more than one percent in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day. After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day before pulling back from the late-afternoon intraday high. The thin green body in the upper half of the candle shows an indecisive day for the Nasdaq while the broader stock market rose. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied in the morning as investors rotated into small caps. The index rose +1.46% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also gained for the day, advancing +0.21%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.28%, weighed down by Technology mega-caps.
Cyclical sectors dominated the top of the sector list, with Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) leading the way. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.54%) was the only non-cyclical sector to gain for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) having the most significant losses.
Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% in August compared to the forecast of 0.7%. However, Core Durable Goods Orders, which excludes transportation items, rose only 0.2% compared to a forecast of 0.5%. Demand for transportation items rebounded to exceed pre-pandemic levels.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.14%. Treasury Yields on both long-term and short-term notes rose while the gap tightened. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil Futures headed higher for the day, while aluminum futures fell back from record highs.
The put/call ratio declined to 0.518, a very bullish level. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the center of the Fear range.
All four largest mega-caps declined for the day, moving back below critical moving average lines. Of the four, Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant decline, losing -1.73%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +3.52% gain, followed by Energy and Financial mega-caps that gained over 2%. At the bottom of the list was Adobe, with a -3.06% decline.
The daily update growth list had mixed results. The best performer for the day was GrowGeneration (GRWG), which gained +4.77%. CloudFlare (NET) was the biggest loser, declining -5.79%.
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Looking ahead
Consumer Confidence data will be in the spotlight tomorrow after the market opens. Other data released in the morning includes Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be available after the market closes.
The Fed's Jerome Powell will update Congress on the economic recovery and Fed monetary policy.
There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update for Tuesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq tested the 50d MA and closed below the 21d EMA.
After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day. If the one-day trend were to continue, it would lead to a +0.58% gain for tomorrow.
The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.97% gain for Tuesday.
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Wrap-up
Higher yields and a strengthening USD are both going to place downward pressure on Technology stocks. The economic context that's creating the rising yields and dollar is supportive to small-caps and cyclicals.
Based on the indecisive candle with a small green body, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 9/24Summary: Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, September 24, 2021
Facts: -0.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 84%, Body: 71% Green
Good: Close above 21d EMA, support in the ~15,000 area
Bad: Close lower, lower high
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low
Candle: Inside day, mostly green body
Advance/Decline: 0.55, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (-0.49%), VIX (-4.72%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent.
The Nasdaq closed slightly lower and on lower volume than the previous day. Although a lower close, the day was dominated by buyers after a dip at open. The closing range of 84% shows buyers took the day. However, there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock, indicating investors were very particular on where to place investments.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.15% for the day while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.49%, pulling back from two days of significant gains.
Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) were the top sectors for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list again, with Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) having the worst losses.
New Home Sales exceed forecasts. The reported 740,000 sales compared to the estimates of 714,000. Jerome Powell spoke in the morning on the economy, and he highlighted how businesses are working around the challenges of the pandemic.
US Treasury Yields rose for a second day. The gap between long and short-term notes expanded. The US Dollar index gained +0.21%. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined to the day. Crude Oil prices continued to march higher.
The Put/Call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.696. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear area, moving back toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 77.7 from 87.02 the previous week.
Three of the four largest mega-caps are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Only Apple (AAPL) remains below the key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.71%, helping the communications sector rise to the top of the sector list.
Costco (COST) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31% after announcing it was putting purchase limits back on some items such as toilet paper. The problem is not just over-purchasing, as seen earlier in the pandemic, but also because of shipping delays and supply chain disruptions.
Nike (NKE) declined -6.26% and ended the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The company announced earnings that showed excellent growth but lowered sales forecasts due to supply chain issues.
The daily update growth list was dominated by decliners today. SNAP (SNAP) ended the day as the top stock in the list with a +4.71% gain, lifting higher with the rest of the communications sector. Gains quickly tapered off into losses as we moved down the ranking. UP Fintech (TIGR) was the worst-performing stock in the list, declining -7.34%.
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Looking ahead
Durable Goods Orders for August will be available on Monday morning. John Williams and Lael Brainard of the FOMC are to make comments later in the morning.
There are no interesting earnings reports for the Daily Update on Monday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA in the morning but could recover and close above the line in the afternoon.
The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.98% gain on Monday.
The one-day trend line ends with a +0.52% gain.
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Wrap-up
Today marks one year for the Daily Market Update. It started out looking very different, but I'm proud to have written an update every single trading day for the past year, learning a ton along the way. Still learning a lot every day. Thanks to those who've read, liked, and commented on the updates this past year.
Despite some profit-taking ahead of the weekend, Friday was not a bad way to close a choppy week which started with a very bearish move on Monday. The pivot was undoubtedly the Fed's statements on Wednesday that showed optimism for the economy while still not signaling an overly rushed bond tapering.
Based on today's result, the expectation for Monday is sideways or higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
