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Daily Market Update for 3/30Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (17d), 3/24 (5d) and today 3/30 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 80%, Body: +24% Good: Closing range of 80%, recovered from morning dip below 13,000 Bad: Lower high, lower low, trending down Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: A bit more than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (+1.72%), VIX (-5.45%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.70%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.07%). Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The bond market continued to show its influence on equities today, seemingly in a battle with strong consumer confidence numbers. A pre-market spike in long-term bond yields drove the Financials sector to a gap up at open. However, the yields began to taper off even before stronger than expected consumer confidence numbers were released after market open. The strong numbers sent the Consumer Discretionary sector to the top to finish the day. The Nasdaq never quite recovered from the morning yield scare, but did end the day in the upper range of the candle. The index closed with a -0.11% loss for the day on lower volume. The closing range of 80% is good indicator for intraday bullishness, but the 24% body and lower high means the index still has much to prove. There were 1.2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) finally had a day to shine with a +1.72% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) had nearly similar declines with -0.32% and -0.32% respectively. The VIX volatility index declined -5.45%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) topped the sector list, despite starting the day in the negative. The Consumer Confidence numbers were way better than expected and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. Whereas spending on staples typically remains steady during economic downturns, discretionary spending dips and then picks up once the outlook becomes better. Financials (XLF +0.70%) was the second best sector of the day, helped by the morning spike in long term treasury yields that drive interest rates, and revenues for banks. The strength in Industrials (XLI +0.44%) should also be noted as the infrastructure plans from Biden are expected to boost the sector. All other sectors declined for the day (XLC was even). Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (-1.07%) were the bottom two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.38%, likely impacting big tech valuations. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note declined for the day, after a pre-market spike that sent investors scrambling. The 2y note was flat for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back toward Neutral, but still on the Fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only big four mega-cap to escape losses, but it only had a +0.03% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) had a -1.44% loss as it's 21d EMA moves under the 50d MA, signaling a bearish outlook for the chart. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had losses of -1.23% and -0.66% and both continue to trade underneath both key moving average lines. Alphabet is the only of the big four that has the 21d EMA above the 50d MA. Baidu (BIDU), Tesla (TSLA), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top four mega-caps and only mega-caps to gain more than 1% for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks generally had a good day. Ehang Holdings (EH), Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and RH (RH) topped the daily update list with greater than 6% gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. Employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. President Biden is expected to reveal the details of his infrastructure plan which is expected to be $3 trillion. That could be great for economic recovery, but will have mixed impacts on the market. We could see yields spike again as inflation fears creep back into investors' minds. On the other hand, we are also likely to see some sectors such as Materials and Industrials benefit. Walgreens (WBA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) report on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below 13,000 support again, but was able to regain the line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.06% gain for Wednesday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line does point upward and would result in a +0.60% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.46% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq continues to creep along without any high volume big moves in either direction the last few days. The index did touch the lower line of a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom. I noted that level in the weekly update. It was tested, but closed inside the channel. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. Let's hope for positive end for the month to spring the market into April. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/29Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (17d), 3/23 (5d) and today 3/29 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 29, 2021 Facts: -0.6%, Volume lower, Closing range: 52%, Body: -25% Good: Inside day on lower volume with a slightly longer lower wick Bad: Lower high with two intraday dips Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Red body in the middle of candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 5 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-2.83%), VIX (+9.97%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Communications (XLC +1.02%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy day to start the week. The intraday movement has the look of a spiral that indicates indecision in the market. That's not unexpected considering that investors had a few things to be nervous about including the re-opening of the Suez Canal and the large forced fire-sale from Archegos continuing into this week. It's also no surprise seeing the impact to the Energy and Financials sectors. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.6% loss on lower volume for the day. The inside day has a lower high and higher low. The closing range is 0.52% which is above the 0.40% that we want to see, and the longer lower wick indicates an upward trend intraday. So despite the red body and decline for the day, there are some positives to the candle. On the other hand, there were five declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) rose +0.30% to end the day with a record setting close. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.09% after closing at a record high last week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took another beating with a -2.83% loss for the day. The VIX volatility index rose +9.97%. Utilities (XLU +1.07%) was the top sector as investors remained defensive throughout the day. Communications (XLC +1.02%) was the second best sector, likely a rebound from last weeks losses. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were at the bottom. Big banks are expected to get hit with losses as well as possible regulatory scrutiny on the Archegos situation. The Suez Canal crisis ending is good for shipping but eliminates the potential for crude oil price hikes that would have benefited Energy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.19% as it continues to strengthen. The US Treasury yield curve steepened again. US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose for the day while 2y note yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped slightly to 0.711. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) was the only big four mega-cap to decline for the day, but remains above the important 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +1.04% and closed back above both lines after trading below the 21d EMA all of last week. It's also important to note the intraday dip and support at the 50d MA for Alphabet. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) advanced, but met resistance at their 21d EMA lines. Facebook (FB), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO) and Oracle (ORCL) were the top four mega-caps for the day. About 50% of mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA), JP Morgan (JPM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list with more than -1% declines. Among Growth stocks, FUTU Holdings (FUTU) had a big day with a +14.67% gain. Twitter (TWTR) joined Facebook (FB) with about the same gain of +2.7%. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list declined for the day. Gaming stocks Penn National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) were at the bottom of the list with -7.85% and --8.49% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. Lululemon (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), Carnival Corp (CCL), and HyreCar (HYRE) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below 13,000 support briefly, but was able to regain the line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.3% gain for Monday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line does point upward and would result in a +0.30% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.67% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up While the opening of the Suez Canal is a relief, the ongoing impact on big banks of the forced Archegos fire sale has investors nervous. In addition, we have the end of a quarter, a continued rotation from growth to value, and overall an environment of mixed economic data. If you are waiting for the Nasdaq to breakout of its funk, it perhaps could happen in the next few days, but more likely will happen in April. The expectation based on the candle is for sideways to higher tomorrow. Some positive news could give investors the boost they need to jump back into growth stocks. Otherwise, it will take some slow but sure gains over days to build the confidence. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Big slide (ichimoko) awaiting NASDAQ or will the support prevailThe Nasadq index has gone under the longer period (lower border) of the ichimoko cloud, returned to test it and is set to a big slide from this point of view. However, the two support lines have shown solid support and is validated in the past few weeks. Given the recent correction and overall market sentiment, one of these two indicators may prevail. PS. ichimoko cloud style colors has changed from the tradingview default.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by e4invest
Market Week In Review - 3/22/2021 - 3/26/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 22, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 56% Good: Zero lower wick, strong morning rally to above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above 50d MA, losing support late in the session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, green body under a long upper wick. Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.70%), DJI (+0.32%), RUT (-0.91%), VIX (-9.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.75%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Higher Technology stocks showed up big for the first day of the week. The sector outperformed for the day, carrying most of the major indexes to close with positive gains for the day. The advances were not broadly shared, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.23% gain on significantly lower volume. The candle has no lower wick as the opening price level was never revisited after the morning rally. The 56% body sits under a long upper wick that formed during a sell-off just before close. The closing range of 60% includes a gap up at open and is positive, but does represent the weakness at close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Facts: +1.12%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: -76% Good: Nothing Bad: Back below the 21d EMA with a thick red candle Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Ten declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.76%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-3.58%), VIX (+7.54%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (+0.41%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower The character of the market continues to swing in opposite directions. Expectation was for Sideways or Higher for today, and we got lower. If we were keeping score, you'd notice the expectations I'm setting on a daily basis are broken very consistently over the past few weeks. But it's a good time to remind the reader that the expectations are not predictions, but they are to set and expectation, get our attention when the expectation is broken, and learn what might have changed in the market. Here we go. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.12% decline on higher volume. The candle has small upper and lower wicks, but is mostly red body. The closing range of 12% shows the day very much went to the bears. Few bulls came in to buy back the low prices. The selling was broad, across most sectors, segments and impacted all major indexes. There were 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 24, 2021 Facts: -2.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 99% Good: Nothing, even more nothing than yesterday Bad: No wicks, all red body, close below 13,000 support Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu Black candle, no visible upper or lower wick, all red body Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.55%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-2.35%), VIX (+4.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%) and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower In the endless rotations, the four cyclical sectors moved from the bottom to the top of the sector list in another session of selling for big tech, consumer discretionary and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -2.01% on higher volume. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 25, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: +60% Good: Closed near to intraday highs Bad: Lower low hit in the morning, resistance at 13,000 near close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer lower wick from morning dip Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (-6.56%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.68%) and Industrials (XLI +1.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower Economic news seemed to weigh on the market after open, but investors shook off the weight later in the day to find gains across the major indexes. A short pullback to absorb the reaction from a weak 7y note auction was overcome to close near market intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.19% gain. The candle gave us a lower high and lower low, but overall is bullish look despite a morning dip and afternoon pullback. The closing range is 85% and a thick green body covering 60% of the candle. The lower volume, and lower high mean the trend is still downward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 26, 2021 Facts: +1.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: +53% Good: Rally in afternoon to close near intraday high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with a long lower wick, very small upper wick Advance/Decline: More than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.66%), DJI (+1.39%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-4.80%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -1.09%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher A late afternoon rally in the market closed the week with a positive day for all the major indexes. It's not clear what caused the sudden late afternoon rally. It could just be expiring options activity, or it could be investors outlook of the economy improving. Morning economic data was mixed, but the personal income numbers and consumer sentiment showed the possibility of an upcoming rise in spending. Data from UK and Germany was also positive on their economies. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.24% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% with a 53% green body over a long lower wick was enough to get a higher high on top of a higher low. The higher high and higher low with more volume than the previous day is a great indicator of strength. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week started with supply chain issues as a semiconductor plant in Japan was on fire. The week also ended with supply chain issues as a container ship remained stuck in the Suez Canal, blocking a major shipping route. The blockage caused oil prices to spike and more pressure on an already stressed supply chain. Technology opened the week with huge gains from major leaders. But the gains were limited to big tech and all were on lower volume with no real breakouts. In the broader Nasdaq, there were two losers for every winner. On the surface, the chart looked ok, but the longer upper wick should have been another warning sign. The bears were back on Tuesday and the selling was broad. New lockdowns across Europe and data issues with vaccine trials complicated the pandemic recovery and investors reacted. Utilities and Consumer Staples were at the top of the sector list while the cyclical sectors moved to the bottom. Pandemic stocks got a new life with Netflix, Peloton and Zoom topping the charts again. Global investors fled the US dollar and US treasuries as a safe haven, but equities suffered with 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Wednesday brought another rotation. Cyclical sectors moved from the bottom of the sector list to the top of the sector list. Energy started to climb while a container ship blocking the Suez Canal, threatening oil and supply chain shortages. The US Dollar continued to rise. There were still five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq crossed below a key level of 12,985.05 and looked very bearish with a Marubozu Black candle (no upper or lower wick, just red body). For Thursday, the index needed to hold above 12,783.40 which was the bottom line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index did hold, but not before testing that channel line. The Thursday candle is bullish. However, the lower high and lower low meant the downtrend continues. On the positive side, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The US dollar gained again and the impact of a stronger dollar started to show up in the mega-caps list. Companies at the top of the gains list were ones that could benefit from a stronger dollar. Companies at the bottom of the list would have some negative impact by a strong dollar. Friday opened with a mix of economic news and the continued stress of the Suez Canal blockage. The rally in the final hour saved the day to close the index higher. The reason for the rally was unclear, but may have been from positive economic news in Europe or it could have been market maker activity to cover for expiring options. The volume was higher, but still not as high as average volume since the beginning of the year. To put more confidence in a rally, I'd like to see consistent buying throughout the day with higher than average volume. The Nasdaq declined -0.58% for the week on lower volume. The closing range of 53% is better than the previous week, but we have a lower high and a lower low. The Nasdaq gave us a lower high and a lower low this week. A symmetrical triangle is forming which is usually followed by a move in the direction of the previous trend. I focus on the Nasdaq because it holds many of the growth stocks that I tend to have in my portfolio. But I always keep an eye on the other major indexes in this report. The S&P 500 (SPX) had an all-time high close for the week and advanced +1.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +1.36% gain. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) struggled for a second week. It dipped more than 8% at one point but climbed back to close with a 62% closing range and end the week with a -2.89% loss. The VIX volatility index closed the week at its lowest since March of 2020, declining -9.98% for the week. There were several changes of winners and losers during a week that ended with the S&P 500 at a record close. Technology ( XLK ) led for the first two days of the week. It held the lead on Tuesday, but was sold off heavily on Wednesday and Thursday, but then ended the week with a huge gain on Friday, putting it in third place. Utilities ( XLU ) topped the list on Tuesday as investors became defensive. Utilities didn't take the top weekly spot on until Thursday when investors became more cautious again. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) remained steady throughout the volatile week and ended the week at the top. After last week's rout, Energy ( XLE ) seemed to find a bottom on Tuesday. After a big gain on Wednesday, the sector opened back near the bottom on Thursday, but quickly recovered . By the end of Friday, it was able to end the week with a gain. Communication Services ( XLC ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were the only two sectors to decline for the week. Communication Services ended the week at the bottom with more than a 4% decline. Although Technology sector fared well, there is still evidence of rotation from growth to value. Longer term treasury yields pulled back from recent gains. The US 30y bond and US 10y note yields both dropped relative to the 2y note. There was a brief scare with a disappointing 7y note auction on Thursday, but bonds did not sell off heavily like after the previous lackluster auctions. The yield curve still remains steep but has stopped steepening for the past few weeks. High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices both advanced for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and short term treasury bonds tightened. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.89% and is now having some impact on multinationals valuations. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) remained about even for the week, despite a choppy up and down week. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. The continuing growth in aluminum prices is a signal of the high demand created by the recovering economy and manufacturing companies trying to keep up with expected demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were able to end the week with gains while Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined for the week. Microsoft and Alphabet closed above their 10w moving average lines. Apple is below the 10w but above the 40w moving average. Amazon remains below both moving average lines. Relative to the Nasdaq, Microsoft and Alphabet have been outperforming while Apple and Amazon have been underperforming. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil was the only one to end the week with gains as oil prices are expected to rise with the continued blockage of the Suez Canal. The others sold off sharply early in the week as the pandemic seemed to pop back into investors' worries. They all recovered later in the week, but not enough to end the week with gains. All of the four recovery stocks are trading above both key moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.753. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is near to the neutral territory. The NAAIM exposure index moved down to 57.52. Money managers were reducing positions in the market as of Wednesday when the survey is taken. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week will only have four days of trading. Markets will be closed for Good Friday. A few short term bill auctions are scheduled for Monday. Otherwise there is not much economic news for the start of the week. Investors will be watching for an update to the situation with the Suez Canal. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. On Thursday, an OPEC meeting is scheduled which will impact outlook for oil supply/demand. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. Additional Manufacturing data for March will indicate how the sector is recovering. The markets will be closed on Good Friday, but there will still be some economic data released. Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will all show how strong the labor market is recovering. There are no daily update earnings reports for Monday. Lululemon (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), Carnival Corp (CCL), and HyreCar (HYRE) will report earnings on Tuesday. Walgreens (WBA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) report on Wednesday. CarMax (KMX) reports on Thursday. No earnings reports for Good Friday. Be sure to check your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Looking broadly across the market, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average is near all-time highs. Despite the performance for the Nasdaq, broadly the markets are performing well. Investors continue to rotate into value stocks, away from growth stocks, but that was a necessary rebalancing. Soon the rebalance will be over and stocks can broadly advance together. Global investors are seeing safety and value in the US Dollar again, which helps to strengthen the bond market as well. That should keep yields and the yield curve under control at least for a while. The Fed will continue to buy up bonds to control the yield curve while not worrying up inflation. Rising consumer sentiment means record savings and new stimulus checks could be poured into the economy soon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The supply chain is strained from two big events this week and the higher spending expected in coming months could put more upward pressure on prices. Inflation could scare investors and cause more negative reactions in the bond and equity markets. The rising US Dollar is a signal of strength in the economy, but also could have impacts on multinationals that will cause further rotation and volatility. Add that rotation on top of the continuing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. There is some discussion in the news of large margin calls linked to Archegos happening last week that may continue into next week. If so, there could be more downward pressure on the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq stayed in a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom and is forming a symmetrical triangle that should breakout this week or next. It could breakout to the upside or downside. On the positive side, the level we still want to reach is 13,620.71, but there's a few levels to pass before that happens: The 21d EMA is at 13,239.15. We need to get above that line and stay above it. The 50d MA is at 13,426.43. The 50d started to trend lower this week, and we need it to trend higher. After the 50d MA, this past weeks high of 13,455.64 is the next goal. We need a higher high for next week. The next line is 13,620.71 which is the high from two weeks ago. But it is also past the area of resistance that the index was rejected on 1/26, 3/2, and 3/16. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, the index must stay above 12,985.05 which was a previous neck line on a head and shoulders: 13,000 has been an area of support on 1/29, 2/23, 3/3. The index broke below that support area this week, but was able to rise back above it before the end of the week. 12,985.05 is just below that support area and a key level that would mark bearishness. The index also breached that line this past week. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 12,924 for next week. The low of this past week is 12,786.81. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. The next support area is 12,500-12,550. 12,397.05 is the current bottom of the recent correction on the Nasdaq. Let's not make a new bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may not seem like it looking at growth stocks or small caps, but there was plenty of optimism in the market this past week. The optimism though was focused on the economic recovery and what sectors stocks will benefit the most over the coming months. Global investors are recognizing the strength of the US economic recovery and buying up the US dollar. As the balance of growth and value stocks starts to even out, we can expect some of that global investment to start to move into the 2020 winners again. Still there is no guarantee that what did well last year, will do well again this year. Find what is holding up well relative to their industry sectors and the indexes. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/26Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (16d), 3/22 (5d) and today 3/26 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 26, 2021 Facts: +1.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: +53% Good: Rally in afternoon to close near intraday high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with a long lower wick, very small upper wick Advance/Decline: More than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.66%), DJI (+1.39%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-4.80%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -1.09%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A late afternoon rally in the market closed the week with a positive day for all the major indexes. It's not clear what caused the sudden late afternoon rally. It could just be expiring options activity, or it could be investors outlook of the economy improving. Morning economic data was mixed, but the personal income numbers and consumer sentiment showed the possibility of an upcoming rise in spending. Data from UK and Germany was also positive on their economies. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.24% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% with a 53% green body over a long lower wick was enough to get a higher high on top of a higher low. The higher high and higher low with more volume than the previous day is a great indicator of strength. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied +1.66% to its all-time highest close. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was nearing all-time highs when it closed the day with a +1.39% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had its second day of gains, advancing 1.76%. The VIX volatility index declined -4.80%. The top sectors were Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%). Communications (XLC -1.09%) was the only sector to have losses for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined slightly while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced, as the price becomes more volatile due to the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio stayed nearly even at 0.753. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to neutral. The NAAIM Exposure index is back down to 57.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) declined for the day, losing -0.38% and closing below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both advanced but remain below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) took back both its 21d EMA and 50d MA as it advanced +1.78% for the day. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day, all advancing more than 4%. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Walt Disney (DIS) and Alphabet were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks had some winners and some losers. RH (RH) was at the top of the list with a +9.28% gain. ServiceNow (NOW), Dr Horton (DHI), JD.Com (JD) all had more than 4% gains. Still some growth stocks like GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) did not rally on the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) dropped -11.93% after releasing earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week will be a four-day trading week with markets closed on Good Friday. There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no notable earnings reports for the Daily Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index rallied back above the 13,000 support area in the last hour of trading. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.65% gain for Monday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -2.11% loss. The final hour rally was not enough to move the trend line built up the rest of the day. The five-day trend line points to a -2.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally late on Friday was a welcome site. It may have been options related or it may have been investors finally absorbing the positive economic news from US, UK and Germany. Either way, I want to see a follow through on Monday with higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NASDAQ is strugglingSo an update to an idea I published last week - seems the market weakened as outlined in my bearish scenario, albeit not as severe with a drop to 12,600ish, yet... Bullish case: Nasdaq can come back up with a successful retest and then begin to break free from this downtrend line (in red) to see some upside finally. Bearish case: Judging from the situation now, we've fallen through a support level and yesterday it attempted to rise up back through it but faced it as resistance around 13,000ish. This could fall down to 12,600 before it finds some bull support and if that doesn't hold... look out. Overall, I'm bullish and I see this opportunity is a great one to take up more positions on stocks that have done well before covid-19, and even many of the stocks that did well over covid-19, as fundamentally I feel they aren't going to thrown out.. we're a long way away from a full return to normality around the world and stocks that benefit from remote working will still flourish.
TVC:IXICLong
by Teabo
2
TO THE MOON OR REJECT AT ATHNASDAQ will completely form this triangle that it has been forming due to indecisive market right now. Everyone is trying to make it seem like inflation is a real concern and the world is going to end because economy cannot handle it. Media is pushing all the value traps like crazy but when all the value stocks have been undervalued during end of last year they weren't talking about them at all. Now it is great time to be selling value stocks and especially like value traps like airlines etc. Basically do the exact opposite they are telling us and buy the dip on the stocks that are being manipulated. I am doing it myself and have seen amazing opportunities like dips that have taken stock price under the IPO price back to the beginning of the covid crash. Now, April is going to be beautiful month for all the growth stocks not only as April is the hottest month in the stock market but also because of how things are coming together. I see NASDAQ reaching all time highs again during April and possibly even breaching it at the end of April. Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by janmusil
2
Daily Market Update for 3/25Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (14d), 3/19 (5d) and today 3/25 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 25, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: +60% Good: Closed near to intraday highs Bad: Lower low hit in the morning, resistance at 13,000 near close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer lower wick from morning dip Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (-6.56%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.68%) and Industrials (XLI +1.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Economic news seemed to weigh on the market after open, but investors shook off the weight later in the day to find gains across the major indexes. A short pullback to absorb the reaction from a weak 7y note auction was overcome to close near market intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.19% gain. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rebounded to the top of the index list with a +2.29% gain for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.62%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.56%. The top three sectors were Financials (XLF +1.68%), Industrials (XLI +1.60%) and Materials (XLB +1.45%). The bottom two sectors were Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) which were the only two to end the day with losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to climb with a +0.35% gain. The strengthening dollar may be weighing on big tech and other multinationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose for the day while the 2y treasury note yield declined. The rising yields were triggered by a weak auction for 7y notes. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined just slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined, despite the possibility of delays caused by the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.755. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined with both trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) advanced but remained below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day even with yesterday's close, bouncing in between tests of the 21d EMA and 50d MA and closing under the 21d EMA. Bank of America (BAC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Tesla (TSLA) and Home Depot (HD) were the top mega-caps. The top of the mega-cap list is focused on companies that are not impacted or maybe even benefit from a strengthening dollar. For example, companies relying on imports which become cheaper or companies that have most revenues sourced domestically. On the other hand, companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Nike (NKE) and Netflix (NFLX) have more dependency on foreign revenues and a stronger dollar can impact the value of repatriated revenues. The growth stock list is mixed with winners and losers. SUMO Logic (SUMO) was at the top with a +6.22% gain. Most of the growth stocks at the top of the list are upside reversals from recent sell-offs so bases have not yet been formed. DataDog (DDOG) continues to drop with a -3.69% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Watch for further impacts to the US Dollar from tomorrow's economic data. There are plenty of data points to be released. More insights into consumer sentiment and behaviors will be released tomorrow. Consumer price index data for February as well as consumer sentiment and consumer expectations for March will drive outlooks for inflation and the US dollar. On Friday, Up Fintech (TIGER) will release their earnings update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,000 area and tried to regain the support but fell short before close. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +2.74% gain for Friday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a +0.71% gain to rise just above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a -0.51% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes absorbed mixed news coming into the open of the market today. Jobless Claims were lower than expected which is a positive for the labor market. However, Core PCE Prices and GDP Sales data was weaker than expected. The 7-year auction mid-day was a concern as yields began to rise, but the index resumed the climb when it seemed bond selling was under control. The strengthening dollar is now getting some attention and you'll see that show up in valuations of companies that impacting positively or negatively by a stronger dollar. I have the expectation set for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. The Nasdaq did have a green day, but it's still a down trend with the lower high and lower low. Volume also needs to be higher on green days for more confidence. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/24Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/18 (5d) and today 3/24 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 24, 2021 Facts: -2.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 99% Good: Nothing, even more nothing than yesterday Bad: No wicks, all red body, close below 13,000 support Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu Black candle, no visible upper or lower wick, all red body Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.55%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-2.35%), VIX (+4.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%) and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview In the endless rotations, the four cyclical sectors moved from the bottom to the top of the sector list in another session of selling for big tech, consumer discretionary and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -2.01% on higher volume. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing sector, declining another -2.35%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.55% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.01%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.43%. The cyclical sectors were back on top for the day with Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) performing best. Technology (XLK -1.21%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%), and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose another +0.26%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for another day even as stock indexes dropped. Silver (SILVER) remained about flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) rebounded from its sharp decline. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.751. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -2.00%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.61%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.43% and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.89%. Microsoft is the only of the four that is trading above its 21d EMA. ASML Holding (ASML) gained +3.53% as the top mega-cap for the day. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Mastercard (MA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) round out the top four. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.16%. Tesla (TSLA) also gave up significant ground with a -4.82% decline. Only one growth stock, Dr Horton (DHI), in the daily update list had a gain for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update on 2020 Q4 GDP numbers. Initial Jobless Claims will also be watched closely for trends in the labor market. There is a 7-Year Treasury Note auction scheduled for the afternoon. Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. For the daily update, there are no relevant earnings releases on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index fell just below the 13,000 area. Hopefully that will trigger some support and we can see gains in the coming days. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +3.80% gain for Thursday, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +1.80% gain, just below the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -1.38% loss and a dip further below the 13,000 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the most recent Market Week In Review, I marked 12,985.05 as a key level to stay above and unfortunately today, the index moved below that line. If you aren't already in defensive mode because of the multiple rotations over the past several weeks, now is a time to be in that mode. We can hope the index makes a turn from here and starts to rally, but there's no indication at this point that will happen. 12,783.40 is where the index would meet the lower side of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The next area to watch for is between 12,500 and 12,600. This would be a new neckline on a head and shoulders pattern that is deeper than the one we previously drew in the daily update. If that pattern played out, the base would be near 11,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/23Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/17 (5d) and today 3/23 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Facts: +1.12%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: -76% Good: Nothing Bad: Back below the 21d EMA with a thick red candle Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Ten declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.76%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-3.58%), VIX (+7.54%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (+0.41%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The character of the market continues to swing in opposite directions. Expectation was for Sideways or Higher for today, and we got lower. If we were keeping score, you'd notice the expectations I'm setting on a daily basis are broken very consistently over the past few weeks. But it's a good time to remind the reader that the expectations are not predictions, but they are to set and expectation, get our attention when the expectation is broken, and learn what might have changed in the market. Here we go. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.12% decline on higher volume. The candle has small upper and lower wicks, but is mostly red body. The closing range of 12% shows the day very much went to the bears. Few bulls came in to buy back the low prices. The selling was broad, across most sectors, segments and impacted all major indexes. There were 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.76% and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) declined -0.94%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the worst beating with a -3.58% loss for the day. The VIX volatility index rose +7.52%. Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.42%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) was the only other sector with gains. These three sectors at the top mean investor nervousness. If investors can't exit equities, then they'll move to these defensive plays. The four cyclicals were at the bottom of the list with Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) being the worst two performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.65%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. That's an interesting detail given the sell-off in equities. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for another day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) resumed a sharp decline from highs earlier this month. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also had sharp declines -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.659. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral, but moving toward fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined for the day. However, the other three all closed well below their intraday highs as the market dipped in the second half of the session. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.67% and is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.86% but hit resistance at its 50d MA and closed below the line. Alphabet (GOOGL) briefly traded above its 21d EMA, but ended just below the line with a +0.52% gain. Some mega-caps did much better for the day. Netflix (NFLX) gained +2.29% today. Proctor & Gamble (P&G), Adobe (ADBE) and Walmart (WMT) all closed the day with greater than 1% gains. The mega-cap list has about one advancing for every declining stock. Growth stocks had much smaller ratio of advancing vs declining. Peloton (PTON) and Zoom (ZM) were top advancers with almost 3.5% gains each. So we have Netflix, Peloton and Zoom as top advancing stocks of the day. It's morning where I live and I haven't checked the news yet (I usually check before the wrap-up), but I expect to find news about a resurgence of the pandemic. The market is obvious sometimes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic news will be released on Wednesday. Durable Goods Orders for February will give a heads-up on manufacturing activity. That will be measured against Manufacturing and Services purchasing data for March which can indicate some direction on increasing or decreasing activity in these sectors. Crude Oil Inventory data will also be released. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to continue testimony before congress on Wednesday. His statements are always watched closely for possible sentiment changes. There will be a 5y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Tencent (TCEHY), General Mills (GIS), RH (RH), KB Home (KBH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Guess (GES) are all reporting earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is back below the 21d EMA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +2.27% gain for tomorrow, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA, but under the 13,600 resistance area. The five-day trend line points to a 0.66% gain, right at the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -0.61% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Even as the end of the pandemic nears, it doesn't seem we can quite get past it. Europe lockdowns were extended at the same time the US questioned data from the AstraZeneca vaccine trial. Global investors reacted to the extended pandemic pressures by buying up US dollar and US treasuries, dropping yields that have been gaining in recent weeks. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoked to the House Financial Services Committee, expressing concerns for the economy but defending future tax increases. That put pressure on US equities, as investors looked to move to safe haven assets and defensive equity plays. Defensive plays moved to the top of the sector list while cyclicals moved to the bottom. The top pandemic stocks of Peloton (PTON), Zoom (ZM) and Netflix (NFLX) all popped again. The recovery stocks, including travel, leisure, airlines all suffered losses for the day. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 3/22Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (12d), 3/16 (5d) and today 3/22 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 22, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 56% Good: Zero lower wick, strong morning rally to above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above 50d MA, losing support late in the session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, green body under a long upper wick. Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.70%), DJI (+0.32%), RUT (-0.91%), VIX (-9.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.75%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks showed up big for the first day of the week. The sector outperformed for the day, carrying most of the major indexes to close with positive gains for the day. The advances were not broadly shared, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.23% gain on significantly lower volume. The candle has no lower wick as the opening price level was never revisited after the morning rally. The 56% body sits under a long upper wick that formed during a sell-off just before close. The closing range of 60% includes a gap up at open and is positive, but does represent the weakness at close. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with +0.70% and +0.32% gains, largely driven by big tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day in the positive, but sold off in the morning as the Nasdaq was rallying. The RUT ended the day with a -0.91% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -9.88%, back to its lowest level since February 2020. Technology (XLK +1.75%) was the top performing sector of the day and the only sector to perform better than the broader S&P 500 index. Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) was the next best sector. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) performed the worst for the day. Energy continues to underperform after having one of its worst weeks in recent memory last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.09%. The US 30y bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day, helping drive the gains for big tech and growth stocks. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for the day. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) was about even while Aluminum (ALI1!) continues advancing to its highest point since 2019. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.532. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all had gains for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) led the way with +2.83% and 2.45% gains. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.18%. To put these gains into perspective though, consider a few things. All of them are on lower volume. Only Microsoft moved back above its 21d EMA line, while Apple attempted but found resistance. None of the gains were at a "breakout" level where the price moves past the high within a base. Overall mega-caps did well with ASML Holding (ASML) topping the list with a 5.22% gain. Baidu (BIDU), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC) round out the top four mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), leading the Financials sector lower. Also at the bottom of the list was Toyota Motor (TM) which could have a big impact from a fire at Japanese auto chip manufacturer Renesas. Digital Turbine (APPS) led growth stocks with a big +10.31% gain. This gain was on higher volume and could be considered a breakout. Okta (OKTA), Chewy (CHWY) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) were other leading growth stocks. At the bottom of the growth stock list were three Chinese stocks. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH) all lost more than 6%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, New Home Sales data will be released. Also, API Weekly Crude Oil stock will be revealed. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will begin testimony before congress where he's expected to applaud the stimulus bill and economic support programs as having a positive impact, but that we are not out of the woods yet for long term economic recovery. There will be a 2y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Adobe (ADBE) will release earnings on Tuesday. It probably doesn't make much difference for the stock price, but GameStop (GME) will also announce earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA today, but was unable to hold support above the 50d MA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.47% gain for tomorrow, just under the 13,600 support area. The one-day trend line points to a +1.28% gain, and back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -1.39% loss, back below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a good to start the week with a gain for the Nasdaq. However, the gains were not broadly shared and were on less volume than has been average since the start of the year. Investors are still watching yields closely on treasury notes and bonds, adjusting valuations on sectors such as Technology, Communications and Financials. As they yields continue to be volatile, expect these sectors to also be volatile. Also watch for surprises from the testimony of Jerome Powell to congress. If pressed with questions, investors will be listening closely to his answers to understand the timing of future tapering of bond buying or interest rate hikes. So far, he has been firm and clear that nothing would change through 2023. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
IXIC Testing Resistance/Weekly IdeasIt looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails 13610 and double tops, that could mean a large fast movement downward. This time it may drag the SPX/DIA down with it. On the downside we have some protection at 12610. Whether we do or don't test either resistance level, if it finds support here, this could indicate a strong bullish reversal. However I think that to be unlikely given the valuation of the market today and the necessity of a correction to maintain reasonable valuations in the tech sector. Unfortunately, the rest of the market will probably get caught in the crossfire. I am also watching the SPX for a probable normal dip along its trading trendline. Looking for some possible short plays there. Looking for a possible bear PCS on INTC this week as it tests previous resistance line for support in rising wedge pattern... Another possible bear PCS on AGI this week or early next as it shows a bearish flag in an overall downward trend while showing overbought on the Stoch. Will probably look for a MACD crossover before entering into the position. This will be especially effective if it tests and fails the downward trendline this or next week. Also looking for entry on a PCS for BK after failing $47 and a bearish crossover in the Stoch and one possibly forming on the MACD. Looking for a similar play on ED after possibly failing resistance for 3rd time while showing overbought in Stoch with a bearish crossover. Everything of course seems to be dependent on the TNX so keep an eye out for more panic selling with rising rates.
TVC:IXICShort
by hobo4000
4