US 10Y Yields - Are The Bulls Loosing Momentum? The continued draw up into premium pricing might be weakening.
Remember, there is nothing irregular about a minor retracement back down into a sellside imbalance in the grand scheme of the uptrend
US10Y trade ideas
US 10Y Yields - 4.493% Is Up For Debating Bullish but taking a lot of cautions due to the current sentiment at the moment.
Low resistance liquidity run from 3.599% to 4.386% in a little over 7 weeks is a trend that could continue but as a trader who likes to see both sides of the story, it's; only a matter of time before the trend will reverse.
The real question is when??
10Y BOND MARKETS CAB DROP TILL!!!!!HELLO FRIENDS
AS I can see 10Y Bond markets to have Drop with a view of technical analysis it had tested trend line on 3rd test and fail to break and if we see Fib retracement then don't forget its just starting and can test golden ratio 0.50 & 0.618 easily chart is based on 4hr TF till design TP
Friends this is just a technical view share Ur thought with us on this chart stay tuned for more updates
Yields USA
1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%):
- The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation.
2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%):
- The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening.
3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%):
- The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation.
4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%):
- The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds.
The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed.
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US10Y BazookaOn US presidential election day, as a Donald Trump victory began to look certain, US Treasury yields experienced a startling increase in the span of a few hours. Truly extraordinary.
But is this the start of a new trend or just an acceleration of the old trend? The US10Y was so far rejected at resistance it was preordained to test. Maybe nothing has changed and we go down from here?
Hidden Bearish Divergence on Yield US Treasury 10YrWhile RSI 14 reach above 70, TVC:US10Y formed a lower low compare to when the last time RSI 14 were above 70 (Apr'24). They say this is a hidden Divergence, a Bearish one.
I predict the Yield will fall to 3.6% but still within the Bullish Continuation pattern in the medium to long term. Meaning that the strengthening price of US Bond is temporary before they fall and push the yield higher to the level of Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level.
The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
US10Y Most Deviated in History. Except for the Great DepressionThe percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE and NFP aheadDuring the previous week there has been a lack of new macro data which would point to markets the course of inflation and potential next Feds move regarding interest rates. Still, the markets are watching closely any statements from Fed officials, and trying to position according to the current sentiment. Considering that statements from Feds officials were pretty cautious regarding the future rate cuts, the markets reacted by increasing yields. The US 10Y benchmark started the week by testing the 4,0% level, and moved to the highest weekly level at 4,25%. Yields eased on Friday, ending the week at 4,18%.
The week ahead is bringing a release of new PCE and Non-farm payrolls data, which would most certainly bring some increased volatility back to the market. There is the potential that the yields might continue to slow down during the week, however, in case of any surprises related to macro data, yields could also hit the 4,25% level for one more time.
US 10Y Yields - Bullish Rip To PremiumYields opened the week inside a discount price range (below 4.169%) and closed above equilibrium, with the next draw on liquidity being buyside liquidity @ 4.292%.
However, I see the potential for a draw up to buyside 50/50% and will be sitting on my hands awaiting for more data to make a educated decision where the overall direction will be.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions .
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The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.)
According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4.
I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y .
Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets?
Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets:
Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price.
U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰.
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US 10Y Yields - 2nd Bullish Leg Up To Equalibrium?Based on the last post on Yields, I was projecting a draw towards equilibrium; 4.169% with the possibility for a short term retracement down to the NWOG highly likely.
I would like to see the neighbouring FVG respected with the last line of defence @ 4.026% held throughout next week
US 10Y TREASURY: retail sales eased the sentimentThe US Treasury market was under influence of the posted data for the Retail Sales in the US in September, as a potential add-on to the total inflation in the country. Released data were in line with the market consensus, as the indicator was higher by 0,4% in September, leading to yearly increase of 1,7%. Without other posted data which would add to the potential move of the inflation in the US, the 10Y US yields eased a bit, and tested the 4,0% level. Still, at Friday trading session, yields ended the week a bit higher, at the level of 4,075%.
In the week ahead there are no macro data scheduled for a release, which could point to potential inflation movements, in which sense, it could be expected a relatively calmer week when US yields are in question. There is some probability that yields could test the 4,0% level for one more time, while odds are quite low for the move toward the upside.
