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US 30Y yieldUU

US 30Y yield

4.946%R
−0.045−0.90%
Yield
%
No trades
96'30'5% of parR
+0'21'7+0.71%
Price
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US30Y trade ideas

US30Y Bullish ideaThis is a potential idea of the 30 year bond yield potentially having movement to the upside. We have already reached into a daily volume imbalance and weekly volume imbalance. We also have a monthly order block that is acting as support combined with our volume imbalance levels. We also have relative strength with the US30Y against the US10Y and US5Y. Could be a potential idea to look for bullish ideas with the the fact that we are in a potential point were we could have a Quarterly shift. *Targeting A move to the upside were we have buyside liquidity and the 4H fair value gap.
TVC:US30YLong
by That_Guy_Trades
12
Rising Yields doesn't (always) translate Dollar StrengthThe 30-year Treasure yield pushed above 5%, which should be bullish for the dollar. However, the DXY actually went lower. It seems like investors aren't just looking at yields, they're concerned about why yields are rising. It won't be pretty. If the greenback falls below 99.50, the alarm will go off. The Treasury yields tell the truth about debt confidence. We'll be on the lookout for EURUSD & USDJPY price action next week when NFP comes around. I'm not gonna say it, but I'm leaning towards continued sellside delivery on the greenback.
TLong
by Martingale_FX
Is US debt a threat to equity market recovery?Introduction: The equity market is marking time in the short term after a vertical uptrend since the beginning of April. There are many issues of fundamental concern, but one is currently front and center: the sustainability of US sovereign debt. Of course, it's far too early to talk about a US public debt crisis, but the new tax bill championed by the Trump Administration envisages raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion, putting short-term upward pressure on US bond yields on 10-, 20- and 30-year maturities. Is this a threat to the rebound in US equities since the beginning of April? 1) US bond yields reach macroeconomic warning zone The Trump Administration's tax bill calls for tax cuts and, above all, an increase in the US public debt ceiling by US$4 trillion to allow the US federal government to continue its massive indebtedness. The market is beginning to worry about this situation, as US debt is on the verge of surpassing the 1946 record when expressed as a percentage of US GDP. The annual interest burden on existing debt has reached US$880 billion, equivalent to the US defense budget. Chart showing the evolution of US public debt as a percentage of US GDP As a result, financial markets are expressing their concern with rising US bond yields on the long end of the yield curve. Chart showing Japanese candlesticks in daily data tu 10-year US bond yields Graph showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for the 30-year US bond yield. 2) The market is hoping for activation of the FED put to ease bond tension This upward pressure on US bond yields may represent a risk for the equity market, as higher US federal government yields will have a direct impact on US corporate borrowing rates. S&P 500 companies have solid balance sheets and should be able to cope, but long-term bond yields must not rise above 5/6%, as the financial situation of small and medium-sized US companies would then become problematic. This 5/6% threshold has been identified as the macroeconomic warning threshold for the majority of US companies. In such a scenario, the FED would be obliged to intervene directly on the bond market to relieve the pressure. 3) The S&P 500 is overheating in the short term, but the underlying uptrend is technically intact, and remains supported by the new record high in global liquidity. At this stage, technical analysis of the financial markets suggests that the upward rally since the beginning of April is not under threat. The market was overheated in the short term and needed to breathe. For the S&P 500 index, the consolidation is short-term in scope, and the recovery remains intact as long as the major technical support zone of 5700/5800 points remains intact. The 200-day moving average, shown in blue on the chart below, passes through this price range. Chart showing Japanese candlesticks in daily data for the S&P 500 future contract DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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T
by Swissquote
1
US30Y : Not perfect anymoreS&P in 2011 Fitch in 2023 Now Moody downgraded it from AAA to Aa1 The reason is clear. The market thinks debt and interest payments are not sustainable for the US, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere. Bottom line: Nowhere is safe. No government bond is safe. If it keeps climbing, above 5.25%, the Fed will have to act. The only way is QE. However, this time US will print to save just itself. No more life line swaps for the rest. Tariff would be in place. No trade with uncle SAM anymore. If you reject the rule based order, where you recycle your surplus forex and petrodollar into UST, you can expect no help. This is the chart to watch if you are playing XAU and BTC. For DXY, dollar may fall. Just that the other currencies will fall FASTER. Watch it: a) go up above 5.25% b) then watch if the FED goes into action. Exit stocks like what M.Burry did a few days ago. Good luck to all of us. This will not end well.
TEducation
by i_am_siew
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TShort
by RealMacro
6
Bullish Bond BonanzaThis chart is simply ultra bullish. This idea attempts to highlight a bullish pattern, within an ultra bullish pattern. The first pattern is an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which has formed over 16 years! In Oct 23, US30Y breached the 16 year Year High and since then we have created a double bottom (the second pattern) on the 3M chart at near equal lows around 3.9% US30Y looks like it wants to break out very soon. The red areas highlights the 3months selling Fair Value Gaps, however the closest unfilled 3M fair value gaps starts around 6.5% I anticipate that the price will be initially attracted to the 6.5% area, but inverted head and shoulders pattern could play out over several years to get to the overall target.
TLong
by TheTradeBorough
Bull Market in Housing to continue till 2027It would surprise many. So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5% Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000 A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean #Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception) #Stocks 2026 (march 2009) #property 2027 due to lag and time to make a sale. (End of 2011)
TLong
by BallaJi
1
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020? In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season? 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TEducation
by konhow
9
US30Y: A Deep Dive into US30Y Bond Swing-Trade OpportunityThe US30Y bond is a type of loan that the United States government takes from investors. It's called a "30-year bond" because it takes 30 years for the government to pay back the loan in full. When you buy a US30Y bond, you're essentially lending money to the government, and in return, they promise to pay you back the amount you lent, plus interest, over the 30-year period. People trade US30Y bonds because they can buy and sell them before they mature. This means you can potentially make money by selling the bond for more than you paid for it if its value goes up, or you might sell it for less if its value goes down. The value of the bond can change based on factors like interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions. Most investors often see US30Y bonds as a safer investment compared to stocks because they're backed by the government. However, they still carry risks, such as changes in interest rates or inflation levels. So, people who trade US30Y bonds need to carefully consider these factors before making investment decisions. Now let's get into the detailed analysis of this bond 12M: 6M: 3M: 1M: 1D:
TLong
by Fractalyst