Volatility coming in this week.. #VIXThe main indexes have been given a break in the last two weeks... ready to reclaim 30's again?
VIX trade ideas
Vix , Rock and a hard place..If you look at my last post I said a big move was coming either way and here we are, at that trend where we bounced at 24.
3 straight times vix got rejected at 200sma. Now we are trading between 200sma and trendline support. One will give way next week. IF we break above 200sma chances are the SPY is testing 360 and lower.
If we break below trendline there is a gap at 20 that will probably get closed.
VIX Simple Chart AnalysisVix supported as well. If things continue to fall at US market, it will revisit 28 to 34 area again till CPI data day. All this chart index is our key to monitor the movement of bull & bear.
VIX - what what what ?!What Do I see here ?! The Double Top Neck didn't get retested (red circle)
Ladies and gentlemen.... this means only one thing - if a retest hasn't appeared yet, it is more than likely to reverse the other way in the near future - and that is no surprise to me.
So far VIX has been following my lines - and I expect nothing else for the next months. We are now at support, ofcourse consolidation may happen but overall this should be the local bottom and we should start going up - and from here - in theory - sky is the limit. Anything can happen any time. And sadly it won't happen when expected so just keep monitoring. Yesterday's FOMC was really bearish and gave no hope for bulls.
Now stocks and risk-on assets have a pretty open highway to the downside.
Vix (Wake up) Somebody hit this with some Narcan!
Support is now resistance (Yellow line)
We are bouncing off of 25.50 but can't get anywhere. The vix is running out of room because it's caught between Yellow line and white; one or the other will give out.
If we break below 25 we're headed towards 23.74 or 24 (Purple line).
If you look at your RSI on the daily time frame and place a horizontal bar at around 36.30 you'll see we're at support. With that being said the next 2 trading sessions will be interesting
VIX - Will the FED spark another rally in the volatility index?On 18th October 2022, we warned investors that our short-term price target of 35 USD would be pushed further into the future if the market rallied until the FED meeting. Now, we are growing increasingly bullish on the index and expect it to return above 30 USD and then continue toward our short-term and medium-term price targets.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 12.11% , up from expected 8.8% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 10th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 9.4% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 11.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 22.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 29.3
BOT: 24.5
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
35% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
60% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
VIX vs BTCOkay can someone explain this to me ? I guess not, Because I know that this can't be explained - and worst is - mathematicians have proofs of life being a "thing" made out of fractals - literally everywhere and between everything.
Well, back to markets - here We can See the Daily chart BTC fractal on the 1h timeframe of BTC - and also on the 1h timeframe of VIX - vis has played out nicely ( have posted about this fractal last week)
Now let's see if it leads us to low 19k on BTC.
Risk for Stocks increasing again $VIX $DJI
$VIX in middle of range, normal for now
RSI RARELY oversold
Maybe 1x per year & we're @ lower end
$DJI Comparison to last peak
In overbought territory
"2.5% upside" - ??? downside
Reducing longs
Our LARGEST position $TWTR = cash now
As we go higher raising more cash again
VIX Bullish ContinuationThe study of volatility is one of the most important factors of market analysis. I predict we will see more volatility breakdown for a short period of time until we fall to the RSI support zone. This support zone goes all the way back to March 2022.
After this we will retest the highs of around 34. A new analysis will be completed if this target is hit.
I think I have cracked the code for the action on the VIX!This idea illustrates a repetitive pattern which occurs during recession/bear markets. First sign is the VIX keeps basing higher and higher then you get a well defined resistance line going back to the base line BEFORE the crash which coincides with the end of the bear market. Then you get multiple retracements on the VIX which are all shorting opportunities!!
I hope you benefit from this idea!
Peace
VIX interesting fractalI have checked the amount of days from Mar 2020 first spike to the main low of this VIX smile, its 491d
If counting from the same low day 491d it comes to Nov 2nd! give it plus one day in case I should of start from the following day of the mid low.
Very interesting timing.
Also week of Nov 7th is a cycle panic week...
Im only looking up in VIX
2X 4HR VIX ANALYSIS (200 EMA) (NEXT STOP BEFORE RUN !?)The Vix is the end all be all for stock once it spikes up. AS we look at previous cycles and price action we can see The vix is at a key level where it took off from october 22nd and september 22nd. If we get a reject or bullish confirmation look for the market to sell off because if volatility stays above 35 mark off buy areas for your favorite stocks and get ready to load puts stocks will discount way more!
VIX - Still in the gameVIX is consolidating at very high levels - bounced off of the double top neck - possibly will plan to fill the weekend gap now - If we break to the downside - then 2008's scenario is still in the game and we revisit double top's target.
If we keep going uip and break that htf and ltf curve - we head into unknown territory with sky being the limit.
