VIX at potential reversal zone, yet NASDAQ/BTC/SPX looks bullishThe VIX is at a potential reversal zone, which is alarming, considering the NASDAQ is confidently bullish presently.
VIX trade ideas
VorheesIn July I posted a prediction that VIX would break down August 1st and my target at the time was 14-15. However, it is known that the V is for Vorhees, he doesn't stay down and controlled for long, bullish Navaro200 nested in larger bullish Navaro - as well as harmonic on the stochastic (and severely oversold) - indicates we will see a spike in the coming weeks to the 0.618... Expectations:
- Activation level is 21.18, if closes above that expect explosive spike to 24 minimum but likely 29-30
- If fails to activate then it could continue down to 14-16 level but that would be awkward with the SPY showing signs of near-term pullback on a wave 4 following this local blowout top (should see the downside begin early to mid week (16th seems most likely)
- If activates and hits 29-30, will likely bullback to retest 24 in sychronicity with SPY wave 5 late August/early Sep.
- After this it has the setup to breakout temporarily through the equilibrium point where supply = demand (around Sep 26 2022) - this would be in syncronicity with an ABC corrective wave in the SPY before it begins larger degree wave II
- Depending on the extent of SPY ABC (i.e. 0.5 or 0.618, or 0.786), VIX goal target in early October is 36-47 (possibly even 51).. It will die again from there like Friday the 13th and likely around Halloween.
Last part is a joke but the rest is no cap.
Playing Aug 26 VXX calls for exposure to this move, will sell when VIX hits 29-30 and then re-enter October calls upon a realized bounce at 24 end of August.
#NoTfInAnCiAlAdViCe
Vix on life supportStill showing a falling wedge but yesterday Close beneath the daily 21ema and out of uptrend which is bearish.
Also the falling wedge would then turn into a double top if we break support wedge support or purple line.
If Vix is a double top and it breaks support then the vix is heading to 25 white line. Which means the Markets could have a bear rally through next week.
VIX is at DemandMust hold here! should explode soon imo
Staying elevated for a while, next stop wont be at 35 level but 45+
VIX is still in a setup to blow off the top move to above 65+Im still very bullish on VIC and want to see 2x on VIX at min, ideally we get even 2.5-3x
VIX OPEX is behind us and monthly will come tomorrow, after that we are free to move in a wider range and have new levels to be seen.
Nov is a panic month!
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading.
I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis.
I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis.
I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing.
But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again.
We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep.
Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree).
Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right?
All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down).
So, how do I plan to profit from this?
Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea.
And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100.
Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle.
Thank you for reading.
This is not financial advice
VIX is looking very bullishVix is currently trending in a falling wedge formation (possibly looking for a bullish brekaout)
If it breaks the wedge then theres a chance VIX is forced to the top resistance line of the pennant its formed.
Theres also a possibility that the breakout of the wedge forces it to breakout of pennant and push even higher.
If this happens then we could see a VERY red market.
Supporting ideas and technicals are pointed out in the chart.
