TSM: 2nd Leg Down ComingTSM is too far above the larger SMA's on the weekly chart to continue higher without a correction. Expecting earnings to bring this down to my target of 159-148 by the 3rd week of January
2330 trade ideas
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)Taiwan Semiconductor is currently testing the resistance level at $206.61. A breakout above this level could propel the stock toward testing its previous major peak and all-time high at $212.60. Breaking above this critical level would confirm a major uptrend, paving the way for further gains toward $218, $222, and $230.30 in the short term.
The stop-loss level is set below $200.90.
Technical indicators are trending positively, supporting the outlined bullish scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or commercial advice or recommendations.
TSM: Entry, Volume, Target, Stop Entry: above 189.33
Volume: above 15.1M
Target: 204.10 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 189.33, 182.02 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) AnalysisCompany Overview:
TSMC NYSE:TSM is the world's leading semiconductor foundry, driving innovation in advanced chip manufacturing for critical technologies like AI, 5G, and emerging tech markets.
Key Growth Catalysts:
Strategic U.S. Expansion 🇺🇸
Arizona Fab: TSMC’s first 12-inch wafer fab begins 4 nm chip production this month, solidifying its North American presence.
$40 Billion Investment: Demonstrates TSMC's long-term confidence in U.S. chip demand and geopolitical supply chain security.
Production of 3 nm chips by 2028 highlights TSMC’s roadmap for next-gen leadership.
Rising Global Chip Demand 📈
Surging demand from AI, 5G, and cloud computing is driving industry-wide growth.
Key Clients: Apple, Nvidia, and AMD rely heavily on TSMC’s advanced node production capabilities.
Technological Leadership 🚀
4 nm Mass Production (Q1 2025): Positions TSMC at the forefront of advanced node production.
Continued R&D investments strengthen TSMC’s competitive edge in next-gen chip technologies.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Stance: We are bullish on TSM above $172.00-$174.00, underpinned by its global dominance, strategic U.S. investments, and demand for advanced nodes.
Upside Target: Our price target is $255.00-$260.00, reflecting robust revenue growth, margin expansion, and rising semiconductor demand in AI and 5G markets.
🔹 Taiwan Semiconductor—Powering the Future of Tech! #TSM #Semiconductors #AI #5G
TSM - Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulder SetupSummary: TSM has been a semi-industry leader (along with NVDA) last 3 months and it is forming and inverse head & shoulders pattern on the longer time frames (you could also call this right shoulder just a bull flag setup but it's bullish either way) and I am expecting a breakout in the next few trading sessions. Will look for calls on the confirmed break above 205.5 with SL of 203.5 in mind.
Possible Contracts:
205C for 1/3/2025 (currently $6.40)
210C for 1/3/2025 (currently $4.45)
P&L Assuming 205.5 Entry
Profit: $9
Loss: $1.5
Risk v Reward: 6:1
$TSM textbook bull flag breakoutI originally entered calls at 181 when TSM wicked off of the bottom trendline and 100 Sma with nearly all momentum indicators signaling a reversal to the upside. I closed my positions at the top trendline as TSM continued to move upwards breaking out of the bull flag, intending to reenter when price retested this level. Well, we got that opportunity yesterday (Dec 6) and so I sized back in accordingly. Although the momentum indicators are at or close to overbought levels, I believe TSM has significant legs to push higher on this textbook bull flag. I intend to scale out at 205 and sell at 212 with a stop loss at 199.
Yet Another Shot at ATHWith the gap filled, and prior highs showing support, and demand for chips not decreasing even the slightest, I think we got a clear show at ATH from here.
I've taken a started position on this 50d ema test that coincides with prior highs. See the 2 day timeframe on the left, that pullback from ATH was nothing. Compared to the hourly on the right it sure seems like they were big moves.
Always have to zoom out. I'll add more to my long position so long as we establish support on the way up.
Taiwan Semiconductor - Riding the Nvidia bullish waveNYSE:TSM has been on an uptrend and the recent correction has been a weak bearish downside, forming a bullish flag instead. Yesterday's bullish bar break above the flag has been confirmed and long-term MACD has been rising, supporting the long-term uptrend.
We believe that the stock is likely to continue to edge up higher in the longer-term. SHort-term target is at 230.00 while long-term we are eyeing beyond 280.00-300.00
TSM upward channels. trade the channels going upTaiwan Semiconductor. up ward channels. Trade the channels going up ward. find the pattern and trade the pattern going up. History repeats itself. these are the things i use to trade stocks. use at a risk. informational purpose only. if the stock closes on the floor it will probly make a new low. just saying.
TSM INV H&S- Weekly CallsNYSE:TSM - 4h showing an inverse head and shoulder patterns signaling a flip from sellers in control to buyers in control leading me to believe she can see more continuation throughout the week if 4h can continue to hold up healthy bullish price action. Will be looking ot take intraday breakouts to the upside throughout the week. Not so much interested in shorts at all UNLESS 4h happens to flip back bearish and begins to head for that GAP below.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Shares Rise by Nearly 10%Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Shares Rise by Nearly 10%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) posted quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $1.95, Expected = $1.79;
→ Revenue: Actual = $23.6 billion, Expected = $23.3 billion.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
→ The company expects its revenue from servers and AI processors to triple this year, representing about 15% of its total revenue.
→ TSMC forecasts Q4 revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion.
→ Citi analysts believe TSMC's gross profit could continue growing next year.
→ Morningstar analyst Felix Lee noted that TSMC is well-positioned against competitors like Samsung and Intel.
TSMC shares surged following the report. Today's stock chart shows: → A 10% increase, reaching an all-time high;
→ The stock surpassed the psychological $200 level;
→ Year-to-date price growth is around 100%.
Technical analysis of the TSM stock chart indicates:
→ The price has been rising within an ascending channel since 2024 (marked in blue), with yesterday’s move pushing it into the upper half of the channel, surpassing the median resistance.
→ On strong news, a bullish gap formed between $190-$200, potentially acting as support.
→ The RSI indicator entered overbought territory, with a long upper wick on the candle suggesting a possible correction.
Optimistic forecasts could sustain long-term bullish sentiment, although short-term corrections may occur from the overbought zone towards support levels like the channel's median or the bullish gap area.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
(TSM) Taiwan Semiconductor Set for a Bullish Surge!Technical Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – 15-Minute Timeframe (Long Trade)
We entered a long trade on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at 204.25 after a clear bullish signal. The trade is currently in progress, and we are waiting for the profit targets to be hit.
Key Levels
Entry: 204.25 – The long position was initiated here following a strong upward signal.
Stop-Loss (SL): 195.45 – Positioned below support to manage risk and protect against downside movement.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 215.12 – The first target we are eyeing as the bullish momentum unfolds.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 232.71 – A further upside target, marking a significant rally if the momentum continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 250.30 – A potential target if the bullish trend remains strong.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 261.17 – The ultimate target, signaling a substantial upside move.
Trend Analysis
The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating strong bullish momentum. The upward movement is supported by a solid breakout, and we are now watching for the targets to be met.
The long trade on TSM looks promising, with a clear entry at 204.25. We are now monitoring the price as it approaches the first target at 215.12, expecting further upside momentum.
$TSM Expected Move for Earnings Tomorrow Alright, y'all. TSM reports before the bell tomorrow and this is the implied move.
Here's what Wall Street is expecting:
🔸 EPS: $1.78 (+41% YoY)
🔸 Revenue: $23.30B (+38% YoY)
On the last good pullback we did find support on the 1hr 200MA
Revenue Expectations: Analysts expect TSM to report a significant revenue figure for the third quarter, with estimates around $23.3 billion. This represents a year-over-year increase, driven by the continued demand for advanced chips, particularly those used in AI applications.
Market Sentiment: There's a mixed sentiment around TSM's earnings. On one hand, the tech sector, especially chipmakers, have been benefiting from the AI boom, which has led to optimism about TSM's performance. However, concerns about a potential slowdown in the chip industry, as hinted by ASML's guidance cut, have introduced some caution.
Earnings Impact on Broader Market: Given TSM's significant role in the tech supply chain, especially with clients like Nvidia and Apple, its earnings are watched closely as a bellwether for the semiconductor industry's health. Positive earnings could provide a boost to the Nasdaq and related tech indices, while a miss or weak guidance might lead to a sell-off in tech stocks.
Revenue and Profit: Analysts predict around $23.3 billion in revenue and $9.33 billion in profit for Q3, reflecting growth mainly from AI chip demand.
Market Sentiment: Optimism due to AI boom, tempered by industry slowdown concerns following ASML's warning.
Stock Impact: TSM's stock has surged but could react strongly to earnings; a positive report might boost Nasdaq, while any miss could lead to tech sell-off.
Key Points of Interest: Investors look for TSM's future investment plans, guidance on AI and smartphone markets, and strategies to navigate geopolitical issues affecting supply chains.
Market Reaction: Anticipation mixed with caution; potential for significant market movement based on actual results and forward-looking statements.
GL, y'all.
10/15/24 - $tsm - A buy into results sub $19010/15/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
A buy into results sub $190
- 25x EPS on EV... growing high 20s, low 30s%. not cheap but you get what you pay for - best in the biz
- go read my NASDAQ:ASML comment. while i'm short term swingin sub $730, tmr i probably remove it from my buddy list - there's a chance someone has figured out how to disintermediate their process. just a hypothesis for now. but if it's anyone, TSM is probably involved.
- high end chip demand remains unstoppable. again back to $asml... seems to be more related to factors that are less "directly" correlated to TSM. so the risk off day was/is probably a gift to still buy one of the top dogs
- i'm probably going to swap my 2% stake in asml for 2-3% in tsm tmr depending on how the market opens (smaller if it's up, bigger if it's up at the open)
- pecking order still remains NASDAQ:NVDA > NASDAQ:AVGO > $tsm... but will do more work to determine if NYSE:TSM > $avgo. will report back.
- anyway. if i owned NYSE:TSM , i'd not be trimming only looking for a smart place to add depending on my size/ risk levels on other stuff in my portfolio.
V
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TSM before the major breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 190usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $13.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
TSMC’s Revenue Beats Market Expectation Stock up 1% in PremarketTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, has once again surpassed market expectations, reporting third-quarter revenue of NT$759.69 billion ($23.62 billion). This result not only outshines the forecast of NT$750.36 billion but also marks a remarkable 39.6% year-on-year growth for September alone. TSMC's performance continues to be buoyed by increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, with major clients like Nvidia and Apple relying heavily on its advanced chip production. With AI hardware spending playing a pivotal role, the question arises: how long can TSMC sustain this momentum?
AI Demand as a Driving Force
TSMC (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) has been at the forefront of the AI revolution, with demand for cutting-edge chips continuing to rise. As one of the key suppliers for AI hardware, especially for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) used in AI server farms, TSMC has benefitted immensely from the recent AI boom.
- Revenue Growth: For the third quarter of 2024, TSMC reported an impressive revenue of $23.62 billion, a 36.5% on-year growth compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is largely attributed to the rising global investment in AI infrastructure.
- Customer Base: TSMC’s clientele includes giants such as Apple and Nvidia, both of which are instrumental in the AI market. Apple’s continuous demand for high-performance chips for its devices and Nvidia’s increasing need for AI GPUs have fueled TSMC’s steady revenue stream.
- Pandemic vs. Post-Pandemic Demand: While demand related to the pandemic has tapered off, the surge in AI development has compensated for this decline. TSMC’s ability to pivot its focus toward emerging technologies has helped it maintain a competitive edge.
As governments and companies continue to chase AI supremacy, TSMC’s position as the key chip manufacturer cements its role in this ongoing technological race. However, there are concerns that infrastructure spending on AI may begin to taper off if no immediately monetizable AI use cases emerge. This sure will be an important trend to monitor in the coming quarters.
Technical Outlook: Is TSMC Approaching a Breakout?
From a technical standpoint, NYSE:TSM is showing strong signs of bullish momentum. The stock is currently up 1% in premarket trading as of Wednesday and has gained 72% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market.
As of Tuesday’s close, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TSM sits at 68, suggesting that the stock is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t quite crossed the threshold yet. This indicates that while there’s significant buying momentum, a pullback or consolidation phase could be imminent.
The stock has been trading closely to its moving average for several weeks before breaking out during the first week of October. This upward movement has triggered increased buying interest.
One of the most compelling technical patterns forming on TSM’s daily chart is the "Three White Crows," which is a bullish continuation pattern. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candles, each closing higher than the previous day, signaling that the stock could maintain its upward trajectory for a while longer.
Given the RSI nearing overbought levels and the emergence of the "Three White Crows" pattern, (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) may experience continued growth in the short term. However, cautious investors may want to wait for a possible retracement or consolidation before entering a new position.
Outlook and Risks: What Should Investors Watch For?
As TSMC (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) prepares to release its full earnings report on October 17, investors will be closely monitoring the company’s future guidance, especially in relation to AI demand. While current demand remains strong, sustained growth will largely depend on whether large AI players like Meta and Google can continue their current pace of infrastructure spending. Without monetizable use cases, there’s a risk that demand for AI hardware could plateau.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly between Taiwan and China, could present risks for TSMC. As a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain, any disruption in TSMC’s production capabilities could have far-reaching consequences.
Conclusion
TSMC’s recent performance reaffirms its pivotal role in the global AI hardware ecosystem. With AI demand driving substantial revenue growth, the company is well-positioned to continue capitalizing on this trend. However, investors should be mindful of potential risks, including overbought technical indicators and broader market factors that could impact AI hardware spending.
Technically, the "Three White Crows" pattern suggests continued bullish momentum, but with the RSI nearing overbought territory, a cautious approach may be warranted. Long-term investors with faith in the sustained growth of AI and semiconductor demand may view this as an opportune moment to hold or add positions in TSM(NYSE: NYSE:TSM ).
Ultimately, TSMC's future trajectory will hinge on AI developments and how effectively the company navigates emerging challenges. All eyes will be on its full earnings report and guidance later this month.
