Oil at the Edge: Final Wave or One More Drop?🛢 Brent ICEEUR:BRN1! TVC:UKOIL FX:UKOIL has been correcting for nearly two years since its 2022 high — but looking at the current wave structure, we may be approaching the end of this cycle.
📌 Base Scenario
We’re likely in a classic ABC correction, with wave B being quite extended. The current wave C looks like a developing ending diagonal, and we may now be inside its final legs. In this case, Brent could dip into the $60–65 range before a potential trend reversal kicks in.
🔄 Alternative Scenario
If wave B was shallower than expected, we might be seeing a shorter wave C as well. That would mean Brent could bottom around current levels or slightly lower — with less downside left in play.
💡 Macro Factors That Still Support Oil:
Global demand isn’t falling — especially in Asia and emerging markets.
OPEC+ remains active, limiting supply and stabilizing price action.
Geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks keep risk premiums alive.
Monetary easing cycles in the US and EU could soon put commodities back in the spotlight.
🧭 So, What’s the Play?
Regardless of the exact path, a major collapse looks unlikely. The final leg down may actually be a buying opportunity for long-term bulls. Targets and potential entry zones are highlighted on the chart — now it’s all about watching how wave C wraps up.
