Brent: Strategic Reserve Data TodayBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
Brent crude oil, a key benchmark in Europe, is showing signs of recovery in today's session on the Futures Market. After bouncing for the third time from the $81.72 level recorded last Thursday, today's opening price started at $75.28 per barrel and has advanced to $75.74, evidencing an effort to stabilize amid market volatility.
Rebound Context
The remarkable rebound from $81.72 has generated expectations in the sector, interpreted as a sign of resilience in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and energy supply challenges. Disruptions in critical infrastructures and uncertainties derived from international trade policies continue to be factors affecting price fluctuations. Looking at the average indicators, we can detect elevated trend indecision which could mark a continuation of the price decline to the $72 area at the Checkpoint zone which coincides with the previous trading average zone. The RSI is currently slightly overbought at 58.29%, so it remains to be seen if it rises above $77 to maintain its price around $75 or on the contrary, if it falls as it has been doing in previous seasons towards its strong zone of $72.
Supply Concerns from Russia and Kazakhstan
The rise in Brent comes against a backdrop of growing concerns among investors about crude oil supply from Russia. Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly affected Russian energy infrastructure, reducing the flow in the Caspian Sea by 30-40% during the week.
Special attention deserves the Kazakh pipeline that supplies crude oil to Europe. On Monday, seven drones hit the Kropotskinskaya station, 200 km south of Rostov-on-Don, considered the most important pumping facility of the pipeline to the Black Sea. This disruption threatens to further destabilize energy flows to Europe.
Geopolitical Tensions Influencing the Market
The market is also keeping an eye on diplomatic developments. The United States and Russia held a meeting in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a possible end to the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, France led a second emergency meeting on European and global security.
Added to this are tensions in the Middle East, where Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations for a second phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, which could alleviate the risks of oil supply disruptions from the region.
Market Outlook on U.S. Trade Policies.
The market is also reacting to the uncertainty generated by the trade and tariff policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, who also referred to Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski as “an unelected dictator,” urging him to act quickly.
All of these expected tariffs in March and April could temporarily boost prices, although traders remain cautious about a combination of sanctions, tariffs and geopolitical instability.
Expectations and Pending Data
Despite this partial recovery, the outlook remains uncertain. Market traders remain on hold awaiting the Federal Reserve's crude oil data, which is expected today and could shed more clarity on the near-term trend. These reports will be instrumental in determining whether the current recovery consolidates or further adjustments in the Brent price.
Market Outlook
The moderate advance from the open at $75.28 to $75.74 per barrel reflects the market's dynamism in response to multiple factors. As the industry keeps a close eye on diplomatic developments and trade policy decisions, Brent's ability to recover from elevated levels suggests resilience that could, however, be affected by future events or economic data.
In summary, the current day presents a recovering Brent, with the market's attention focused on upcoming Fed data, which will be key in defining the future direction of prices.
Conclusion
The combination of supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and expectations about US trade policies continue to set the trend for Brent, which for now remains above $75, but this need not necessarily be the case, as the crude oil problem has different sides and could fall to the $70 support zone if things are not resolved from a geopolitical and supply perspective, especially concerning Europe. In today's situation, we will have to see if the strategic reserve data continues to lower the price of crude oil or, on the contrary, sustains its price in the 75 zone.
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