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SP500 Secondary trend. Part of the channel. Reversal zone. 2025 Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (less is not necessary). The SP500 index primarily reflects the "health" of the American stock market and the economy as a whole. This is reflected in all markets by the domino effect. Now, after a huge takeout and recovery, the price is at the maximums of the local trend that has formed, and this is also the maximum of the index as a whole for its entire 100-year existence (before displaying on the chart). 🔄 Locally, the price has run into the resistance of the median of the ascending channel (green dotted line). Now the resistance level of this zone will be formed. 🟢 A breakout of this zone upwards - an exit above the median, promises strong growth and pumping of the stock market as a whole. 🔴 And the reverse process is not a breakthrough and not a consolidation above this zone - consolidation in the range under resistance and above the dynamic support of the internal channel. An extremely negative case is a decline in the lower zone of the channel. 🧠 The chart as a whole shows the channel range itself. Including on both sides, price slippage zones (low probability), as well as key support / resistance levels of this secondary trend that exist, and those that will be formed in the future, but will be key for the development of the trend. This can be an addition to the analysis and formation of tactics and money management in other markets, including cryptocurrency.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SpartaBTC
DivergenceLike I have said in the previous idea, this divergence looks very similar to the divergence we saw in June. It can be broken on some extremely positive news, but now some correction will likely take place. The previous one ended with a tiny undercut of previous low and a positive 4h (2h) divergence. Maybe this time we will see a small correction with 6420 low undercut or maybe it will go lower (who knows). I'm shorting it. Will increase the short position if it goes higher first and will get out if I see atleast 1h positive divergence.
CShort
by Supergalactic
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 29, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading activities of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index demonstrated significant downward price movements before indicating a recovery. It reestablished its upward trend by retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6470 and trading above this benchmark. Following this, the Index exhibited a strong pivot, leading to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance at 6502. Currently, the objective is to reach our Mean Support target, set at 6441. It is crucial to acknowledge that once this Mean Support level is achieved, there exists a substantial likelihood of a robust rebound aimed at the long-term target, the Outer Index Rally at 6543, facilitated by the Mean Resistance of 6502. Conversely, there is a potential scenario involving a significant pullback to the Mean Support level of 6370, which an odds-on secondary rebound would follow.
S
by TradeSelecter
US500 breaks consolidation, eyeing all-time highs after pullbackThe US500 reached a key support area on the H1 chart and started building a bullish structure. On the intraday (M5/M1), price broke above local resistance and then retested the breakout zone with a clean pullback. This retest was confirmed by a strong bullish candle, signaling continuation to the upside. Trade plan: Entry: after confirmation of the pullback at the breakout zone. Stop-loss: below support (around 6437). Target: all-time high zone at 6485–6490. Risk management: once the first target is reached, stop can be moved to breakeven to protect capital. This setup supports the expectation of bullish continuation, as long as support holds.
TLong
by lucasmbernardo00
S&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target ZoneS&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target Zone 🔹 Technical Overview The S&P 500 continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel since the 2020 lows. The index recently recovered strongly from the 2022 correction and is now approaching the upper half of the channel. Measured move from the last significant swing suggests potential upside continuation into a higher target zone. 🔹 Key Levels Support zone: 5,950 – 6,200 (lower channel area). Major resistance / target zone: 7,729 – 8,837 USD. Channel resistance: aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term trend channel. 🔹 Interpretation As long as the index remains inside the ascending channel, the broader trend is bullish. A confirmed breakout above 7,729 would open the door to test the extended target near 8,837. Losing the channel support (below 5,900) would signal a deeper correction and invalidate the near-term bullish structure. 🔹 Conclusion The S&P 500 remains in a structural uptrend, respecting its long-term channel. The next major upside target zone sits between 7,729 and 8,837 USD, provided the index holds above the 6,000 area. 📝 Quick Key Points 📊 Trading inside a long-term ascending channel. 📍 Support: 5,950–6,200 USD. 📍 Resistance / target zone: 7,729–8,837 USD. ⚠️ Breakdown below 5,900 would negate the bullish outlook.
V
by absiko
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 22, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index experienced significant volatility before reestablishing its strong bullish trend. Initially, the Index faced a substantial decline, reaching our designated target of Mean Support at 6370. Subsequently, it rebounded vigorously, attaining our target of Mean Resistance at 6470, and is currently aiming for the Outer Index Rally target of 6543. It is essential to recognize, however, that there remains a possibility of a decline to Mean Support at 6426 before the upward trajectory resumes.
S
by TradeSelecter
SPX500 Hits 6,495 Before Pullback, Key Pivot at 6,468SPX500 Futures – Overview The S&P 500 continues to record new highs, peaking at 6,495 before pulling back for a correction. Price action has since settled above 6,485 on the 4H candle — the previous high — and is now correcting back toward this level, preparing for a potential new upward move. 🔹 Technical Outlook Holding above 6,485 will support bullish continuation toward 6,512 → 6,528 new ATH. ⚠️ A break below 6,485 and a confirmed 1H close under 6,468 (pivot) would signal a new decline toward 6,425 support. Key Levels Pivot: 6,468 Resistance: 6,512 – 6,528 Support: 6,485 – 6,468 – 6,438 – 6,425 ✅ Summary: SPX500 remains in a bullish structure after reaching new highs. Watch 6,485 as the key decision level — holding above favors continuation higher, while a drop below 6,468 could trigger a deeper correction.
OLong
by SroshMayi
SPX500 Futures Hold Gains Ahead of Nvidia EarningsSPX500 Futures – Overview Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings U.S. stock futures are trading slightly higher on Wednesday as investors await Nvidia’s earnings after today’s closing bell, seen as a bellwether for global AI demand and overall market sentiment. 🔹 Technical Outlook Price has stabilized above 6,471, confirming bullish momentum. As long as it holds above this level, upside targets are 6,484 → 6,512 → 6,528. ✅ A 1H close above 6,484 would reinforce the bullish outlook toward higher resistance. ⚠️ However, if the index reverses and stabilizes below 6,471 (1H close), this would trigger a bearish correction toward 6,447. 🔹 Key Levels Pivot: 6,471 Resistance: 6,484 – 6,512 – 6,528 Support: 6,447 – 6,425 – 6,390 ✅ Summary: SPX500 futures are consolidating in bullish territory ahead of Nvidia earnings. A breakout above 6,484 would extend upside momentum, while a drop back below 6,471 risks a correction toward 6,447.
OLong
by SroshMayi
Impulse wave up for SPX500USDHi traders, Since my last post SPX500USD made a sharp correction (wave 4) and after that it went up again making ATH's. Last week it made a correction (Flat). So next week after the finish of the c-wave of the correction, we could see the next impulsive wave up. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs when the correction is finished. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OLong
by EduwaveTrading
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”. Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512. The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
SPX500 & NAS100 AT RESISTANCE CROSSROADS, GOLD GAINING STEAMIn this weekend's analysis on the SPX500 and NAS100 indices, I see a potential bullish trend continuation but also at a key resistance level with hidden bears ready to attach bulls. This is one of the setups that patience is more rewarding than taking a bet. Gold is gaining strength to the upper range and still in the sideways channel. Here too patience for a clear breakout will be more rewarding. I think based on the length of the sideways, once there is a clear breakout, Gold will really rally to it's next targets. Please watch the entire video to understand my analysis and thoughts. Cheers and have a great trading week.
OShort
by RICHINVESTOR
1
SPX: Powell saved the weekThe US equity markets were traded in a more pessimistic way during the previous week, however, a speech held by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium changed the sentiment on Friday. The market turned from pessimistic to optimistic, after Chair Powell signalled the possibility of easing monetary policy in the coming period, implying potential rate cut. The market expectations shifted, as posted by CME Fed WatchTool investors sentiment jumped to 83% odds for a rate cut in September. All US equity indices gained on Friday, with S&P 500 adding 1,52% and closing the week at 6.466. However, with Friday's move the index only covered losses from the previous four days of the week, adding a modest 0,3% for the week. Stocks of tech companies traditionally surged on positive news on potential rate cuts. However, this time the market was also driven by a surge in stocks of construction companies as well as the financial industry. Namely, the market estimated that these industries might benefit the most from decreased interest rates. It might be expected that the positive sentiment will hold on financial markets at least for the week ahead. It should be considered that Friday brings the PCE Price index in July, in which sense, some higher volatility might be expected on this day, in case that July figures do not meet market expectations.
S
by XBTFX
THE 75-YEAR SECRETHOW ONE ECONOMIC NUMBER PREDICTS STOCK MARKET MOVES Edgetools Macro Alpha Series Imagine if you could predict stock market movements with remarkable accuracy using just one simple economic indicator. This isn't fantasy - it's the power of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a little-known economic metric that has been quietly beating the market for over 75 years. This analysis reveals how PMI has consistently predicted S&P 500 movements using 931 monthly readings spanning from 1948 to 2025. Our research shows that when PMI signals economic expansion, your chances of making money in stocks jump to 41.2% - significantly better than the 35.8% win rate during economic contractions. More importantly, we'll show you exactly which PMI levels have historically delivered the best returns and how ordinary investors can use this knowledge to their advantage. What Is PMI and Why Should You Care? Think of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as the economy's early warning system. Every month, purchasing managers at manufacturing companies across America answer a simple survey about their business: Are things getting better or worse? The combined responses create a single number between 0 and 100 that reveals the health of the manufacturing sector. Here's the key insight that most investors miss: PMI doesn't just predict manufacturing trends - it predicts stock market movements. When PMI rises above 50, it signals economic expansion and historically better stock returns. When it falls below 50, it warns of economic contraction and typically weaker market performance. The beauty of PMI lies in its simplicity and timing. Unlike corporate earnings that are reported quarterly and often manipulated, PMI comes out monthly and reflects real business activity. Manufacturing managers can't fake whether they're ordering more materials or hiring more workers - and these decisions directly impact the broader economy and stock prices. The Science Behind PMI's Market-Beating Power PMI isn't just another economic statistic - it's a carefully constructed indicator that captures the pulse of American business. The Institute for Supply Management surveys purchasing managers across five critical business areas: new orders (future demand), inventory levels (current stock), production (current activity), supplier deliveries (supply chain health), and employment (hiring trends). What makes PMI so powerful for investors is its direct connection to corporate profits. When purchasing managers report increasing orders and production, companies are literally manufacturing more products to meet growing demand. This directly translates into higher revenues and profits, which drive stock prices higher. Major financial institutions have recognized PMI's predictive power. T. Rowe Price, managing over $1.7 trillion in assets, developed a model using PMI that explains 85% of corporate earnings changes over time. Similarly, the Bank for International Settlements found that PMI changes predict both stock market movements and corporate bond prices with remarkable accuracy. The Missing Link for Individual Investors Despite PMI's proven track record with institutional investors, individual investors have largely ignored this powerful indicator. Most retail trading education focuses on technical analysis or company fundamentals, completely overlooking the macro-economic signals that drive broad market movements. This creates a massive opportunity for informed investors who understand how to read and act on PMI data. How We Cracked the 75-Year Code Our Research Method To prove PMI's market-beating power, we analyzed an unprecedented dataset spanning over 75 years of market history. We examined daily S&P 500 prices from 1942 to 2025 (over 20,800 trading days) alongside 931 monthly PMI readings from 1948 to 2025. This massive dataset includes every major market crash, bull market, recession, and economic expansion of the modern era. What We Measured To understand PMI's true predictive power, we tracked multiple types of market performance. We measured short-term returns (1-20 days) and longer-term returns (up to 60 days) to see how quickly PMI signals translate into market movements. Most importantly, we calculated "forward-looking" returns meaning we looked at what happened to stock prices AFTER each PMI reading was released. We also categorized PMI readings into five distinct economic zones: - Deep Contraction (PMI below 45): Economic crisis territory - Contraction (PMI 45-50): Economic weakness - Expansion (PMI 50-55): Healthy economic growth - Strong Expansion (PMI 55-60): Robust economic growth - Very Strong Expansion (PMI above 60): Exceptional economic strength For each category, we calculated win rates (how often you made money), average returns, and risk levels. This allowed us to identify exactly which PMI levels have historically produced the best investment opportunities. Our Testing Methods We didn't just look for patterns we rigorously tested PMI's predictive power using multiple statistical approaches. First, we measured correlation strength between PMI readings and future stock returns across different time periods. Think of correlation as measuring how closely two things move together the closer to 1.0, the stronger the relationship. We then compared stock market performance during PMI expansion periods (above 50) versus contraction periods (below 50) to see if the differences were statistically significant. This isn't just about finding patterns that might be random we needed to prove the relationships were real and repeatable. To find the optimal PMI levels for investing, we grouped similar PMI readings together and calculated average returns for each group. We only included groups with at least 10 historical examples to ensure our findings were statistically reliable, not just lucky coincidences. We also tracked how PMI's predictive power changed over time using rolling 60-day correlations. This helped us confirm that PMI's market-beating ability has been consistent across different decades and market environments, not just a temporary phenomenon. Finally, we examined performance during extreme PMI readings (the highest and lowest 10%) to understand how PMI signals work during unusual economic conditions like recessions and economic booms. The Shocking Results: PMI's 75-Year Track Record The Big Picture Chart 1 reveals the remarkable long-term relationship between PMI and the S&P 500 from 1948 to today. Here's what 75 years of data tells us: PMI has spent 69% of the time above 50 (expansion territory), which explains why the stock market has historically trended upward over long periods. But here's the eye-opening part: Every major market crash coincided with PMI warnings. The dot-com crash of 2000, the financial crisis of 2008, and even the COVID-19 market collapse of 2020 all happened when PMI signaled economic weakness. In many cases, PMI actually warned investors BEFORE the market crashes occurred, giving smart money time to protect their portfolios. This isn't just correlation it's causation. When purchasing managers report declining orders and production cuts, it directly means less economic activity, lower corporate profits, and inevitably, falling stock prices. PMI gives you a front-row seat to this economic cause-and-effect relationship. How Strong Is PMI's Predictive Power? Chart 2 shows the mathematical relationship between PMI and future stock returns across different time periods. While the correlations appear modest (the strongest is only +0.100), this is actually remarkable for any economic indicator. In the notoriously unpredictable world of stock markets, any consistent relationship above +0.05 is considered significant. Here's what the numbers tell us: PMI has a -0.101 correlation with recent 5-day stock performance, meaning when stocks have been falling, PMI often rises shortly after (and vice versa). This makes PMI excellent for spotting market turning points. But the real magic happens with forward-looking predictions. PMI shows a +0.100 correlation with stock returns 60 days in the future meaning higher PMI readings today predict better stock performance two months from now. This gives you a legitimate crystal ball for market direction. The key insight: PMI works best as an early warning system for market changes, not for confirming what already happened. When everyone else is panicking about recent market drops, PMI can tell you if the worst is over or just beginning. Understanding PMI's Normal Range Chart 3 shows you what "normal" looks like for PMI over 75 years. The average PMI reading is 52.8, which means the U.S. economy spends most of its time in mild expansion mode. This explains why patient long-term investors have historically been rewarded - the economy grows more often than it contracts. The chart also reveals PMI's sweet spot: readings between 45-60 cover most of the historical data. The magic number of 50 (the line between expansion and contraction) sits right in the middle, making it a reliable benchmark for economic health. Pay special attention to the extremes: PMI readings below 40 or above 65 are rare but incredibly powerful signals. When PMI drops below 40, you're looking at potential recession territory time to protect your capital. When PMI soars above 65, you're witnessing economic euphoria that often precedes market corrections as growth becomes unsustainable. These extreme readings don't happen often (maybe once every few years), but when they do, they represent some of the most important investment decision points you'll ever face. Proof That PMI Predicts Market Moves Chart 4 is where theory meets reality. This scatter plot shows every PMI reading plotted against what the stock market did over the following 20 days. Each dot represents a real historical moment where you could have used PMI to predict market direction. The upward-sloping trend line tells the story: higher PMI readings consistently led to better stock market performance over the next 20 trading days. While the relationship isn't perfect (no market predictor ever is), the consistency over 75 years is remarkable. Notice the outliers those dots far from the trend line represent extreme market events like crashes or melt-ups. What's fascinating is that even during these unusual periods, PMI often provided early warning signals. The color coding shows that this relationship has remained stable across different decades and market environments. The bottom line: PMI gives you a statistically proven edge in predicting market direction. It's not perfect, but in the zero-sum game of investing, any legitimate predictive edge is pure gold. The PMI Sweet Spot: Where to Make Your Money Chart 5 reveals the secret sauce of PMI investing by showing exactly how much money you could have made (or lost) in each economic zone. This box plot analysis breaks down 75 years of market data into five distinct PMI categories, and the results are eye-opening. Deep Contraction (PMI below 45): This is investment purgatory. Not only do you lose money on average, but the volatility is brutal meaning big swings both up and down. When PMI hits this zone, your best strategy is often to sit on cash and wait. Contraction (PMI 45-50): Still dangerous territory with below-average returns and high uncertainty. The market doesn't know which direction the economy is heading, creating choppy, unpredictable price action. Expansion (PMI 50-55): Here's where the magic begins. Positive median returns with manageable risk - this is the bread and butter of PMI investing. When PMI enters this zone, the odds finally tip in your favor. Strong Expansion (PMI 55-60): The sweet spot! This zone delivers the best risk-adjusted returns in our entire 75-year dataset. Higher returns with controlled volatility - exactly what every investor wants. Very Strong Expansion (PMI above 60): Great returns, but use caution. These extreme readings don't last long and often signal that the economy may be overheating. Time-Varying Relationships Chart 6 presents 60-day rolling correlations between PMI and 20-day forward SPX returns, illuminating the dynamic nature of the PMI-equity relationship across different market regimes and economic cycles. The correlation exhibits substantial variation, ranging from -0.44 to +0.37, with an average rolling correlation of +0.063. Particularly noteworthy are periods of strong positive correlation that tend to occur during market stress events, suggesting that PMI's predictive power may strengthen precisely when investors most need reliable signals. This counter-cyclical enhancement of signal quality represents a valuable characteristic for risk management applications. The correlation volatility of 0.134 indicates meaningful relationship instability over time, reflecting structural changes in the economy, monetary policy regimes, and market microstructure evolution. This finding underscores the importance of implementing adaptive approaches with regular model revalidation rather than assuming static relationships. The time-varying nature of the PMI-equity relationship suggests that successful implementation requires ongoing monitoring and periodic strategy adjustments to account for changing market conditions and structural economic shifts. Optimal Entry Points Chart 7 identifies optimal PMI levels for SPX entries through comprehensive binned return analysis, providing the empirical foundation for systematic timing decisions. The analysis reveals that PMI level 60 generates the highest average 20-day forward returns at 1.07%, representing the optimal timing zone for maximizing expected returns. Conversely, PMI level 42 produces the worst performance with average 20-day returns of -2.1%, highlighting the importance of avoiding equity exposure during severe manufacturing contractions. The 3.17% performance differential between optimal and worst entry points demonstrates the substantial value creation potential of systematic PMI-based timing. Sample sizes displayed for each bin ensure statistical validation of findings, with minimum thresholds applied to prevent spurious results from small sample bias. The analysis reveals clear performance deterioration below PMI 45, supporting defensive positioning during deep contraction periods. This empirical framework provides the quantitative foundation for general timing principles and investment considerations based on current PMI levels. Win Rate Analysis Chart 8 tracks win rates, defined as the percentage of positive returns, across different PMI levels, providing essential risk assessment information for position sizing and risk management decisions. The analysis identifies PMI level 60 as producing the highest win rate at 50.0%, marked prominently in the visualization to highlight this optimal entry zone. The overall pattern demonstrates that win rates increase systematically with PMI levels, providing strong empirical support for the regime-based approach to equity timing. This monotonic relationship suggests that PMI serves as a reliable discriminator of equity market conditions across different economic environments. The critical threshold at PMI 50 shows marked improvement in win rates, confirming the theoretical significance of the expansion-contraction dividing line. Below this threshold, win rates deteriorate significantly, with particularly poor performance evident when PMI falls below 45. The progressive degradation of win rates during contraction periods provides essential calibration data for risk management frameworks, enabling systematic reduction of position sizes or implementation of defensive strategies when PMI indicates challenging equity market conditions. Advanced Analytics Our advanced analytics reveal important risk characteristics that provide deeper insight into the regime-dependent nature of PMI-based strategies. Risk-adjusted metrics demonstrate that expansion periods generate superior Sharpe ratios of -0.087 compared to -0.156 during contraction periods, indicating better risk-adjusted performance during favorable economic conditions. Volatility analysis shows that expansion periods exhibit lower volatility at 4.22% compared to 4.76% during contractions, contradicting the common assumption that economic growth periods necessarily involve higher market volatility. This finding suggests that manufacturing expansion provides a stabilizing influence on equity market performance. Extreme event analysis reveals pronounced performance differences during tail conditions. The bottom 10% of PMI readings (below 43.9) generate average returns of -1.27% with win rates of only 29.5%, highlighting the severe equity market challenges associated with deep manufacturing contractions. Conversely, the top 10% of PMI readings (above 60.8) produce average returns of -0.75% with improved win rates of 38.5%, demonstrating the benefits of strong manufacturing expansion for equity performance. General Investment Considerations for PMI-Based Market Timing Conceptual Framework Based on our quantitative analysis, several general principles emerge for investors interested in incorporating economic regime analysis into their investment approach. The research demonstrates that PMI levels relative to empirically derived thresholds can serve as valuable economic context for investment decisions, providing a systematic framework grounded in robust statistical relationships rather than subjective market interpretation. The analysis suggests that intermediate-term investment horizons, particularly around 20 trading days, may provide optimal balance between capturing economic signal benefits and managing exposure to regime changes and external market shocks. This timeframe allows sufficient time for PMI signals to manifest in equity market performance while limiting overexposure to single economic readings. Investment allocation considerations may benefit from awareness of PMI strength, with historical analysis indicating varying risk-adjusted return potential across different economic environments. This adaptive awareness enables more informed investment decisions while maintaining prudent risk management across different economic conditions. Risk management approaches should incorporate both time-based considerations and regime awareness, ensuring investment decisions account for both predetermined time horizons and evolving economic conditions as reflected in PMI readings. Investment Timing Considerations PMI Threshold Awareness The empirical analysis reveals several PMI threshold levels that historically coincide with different risk-return environments, providing general guidance for investment timing considerations. Historical data suggests that PMI readings of 52 and above have generally been associated with more favorable equity market conditions, while readings below this level have historically coincided with increased market challenges. Particularly strong PMI readings above 55 have historically corresponded with improved risk-return profiles, while readings above 60 have shown the most favorable historical outcomes. Conversely, PMI readings below 47 have historically been associated with deteriorating market conditions, with readings below 43 corresponding to the most challenging periods for equity investments. These threshold observations provide general context for investment decision-making rather than specific trading rules, allowing investors to incorporate economic regime awareness into their broader investment approach. Timing Framework Considerations The research suggests several timing considerations that may enhance investment decision-making. Historical analysis indicates that intermediate-term holding periods around 20 trading days have provided optimal balance between capturing PMI signal benefits and managing exposure to economic volatility. Time-based considerations may complement regime-based awareness, with predetermined investment horizons helping to eliminate emotional decision-making while regime awareness provides context for adjusting investment approach based on evolving economic conditions. The analysis suggests that investors might benefit from graduated approach to investment adjustments, with moderate changes in allocation corresponding to moderate PMI movements, rather than dramatic shifts based on single economic readings. Practical Implementation Considerations Data Monitoring Approach Investors interested in incorporating PMI analysis into their investment approach should establish systematic methods for monitoring economic data releases. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is typically released on the first business day of each month, providing a regular schedule for investment review and consideration. Effective implementation requires establishing consistent review processes that examine PMI readings in context with broader market conditions. This includes monitoring PMI trends over time rather than reacting to single data points, and considering PMI data alongside other economic indicators and market factors. Investment platforms commonly provide access to PMI data through economic calendars and market data feeds, enabling investors to incorporate this information into their regular market analysis routine. Allocation Considerations The research suggests that PMI awareness might inform allocation decisions across different market environments, though specific allocation percentages should reflect individual risk tolerance and investment objectives. Historical analysis indicates that different PMI ranges have been associated with varying risk-return environments, providing context for investment allocation decisions. Investors might consider graduated allocation approaches that reflect PMI strength, with stronger PMI readings potentially supporting higher equity allocations and weaker readings suggesting more defensive positioning. However, PMI should represent one factor among many in allocation decisions rather than the sole determinant. The analysis suggests that moderate allocation adjustments may be more appropriate than dramatic portfolio shifts, allowing investors to benefit from PMI insights while maintaining diversified investment approaches. Risk Management and Limitations Analytical Limitations The analysis reveals several important limitations that investors should consider when incorporating PMI data into investment decisions. Statistical relationships between PMI and equity returns prove generally weak, with all correlations falling below 0.11 in absolute terms. This modest correlation strength suggests that PMI should serve as one input among many rather than a primary investment driver. Limited PMI historical data compared to SPX data creates additional analytical constraints, with PMI data extending back only to 1948 while SPX data reaches 1942. This data limitation means that PMI analysis covers fewer complete economic cycles than ideal for robust statistical inference. Past performance relationships may not predict future results, particularly given the evolving nature of the U.S. economy and changing relationships between manufacturing activity and overall economic performance. The increasing service sector dominance may gradually reduce PMI's predictive power for overall market performance. Market Risk Considerations Several market risk factors may impact the effectiveness of PMI-based investment approaches. PMI represents a somewhat lagging rather than purely leading indicator, as manufacturing surveys reflect recent business conditions rather than purely forward-looking assessments. This timing characteristic may limit PMI's effectiveness during rapidly changing economic conditions. Federal Reserve monetary policy may override PMI signals, particularly during periods of unconventional monetary policy or when Fed actions diverge from economic fundamentals. Market regime changes can alter historical relationships between PMI and equity performance, requiring ongoing monitoring and potential strategy adjustments. Implementation challenges include transaction costs that may erode the modest edge provided by PMI timing, monthly PMI release schedules that create signal delays, and behavioral biases that may impact systematic implementation of PMI-based investment approaches. Risk Control Framework Effective risk management requires consideration of multiple levels and timeframes. Portfolio level risk controls should limit allocation to PMI-based approaches, maintain diversification across multiple timeframes and indicators, and implement regular strategy review processes to assess ongoing effectiveness. Individual investment decisions should incorporate time-based considerations alongside PMI analysis, maintain position sizing discipline based on overall portfolio volatility, and monitor correlation with other holdings to prevent excessive concentration in similar economic factors. Market level awareness should include consideration of broader market volatility conditions, economic calendar events that may override PMI signals, and sector rotation patterns that may affect the relationship between PMI and overall market performance. Historical Performance Analysis and Validation Performance Characteristics The 75+ year analysis reveals distinct performance characteristics across different PMI regimes that provide insight into the potential benefits of PMI-aware investment approaches. PMI expansion periods demonstrate win rates of 41.2% compared to 35.8% during contraction periods, indicating a meaningful performance differential between economic regimes. Average 20-day returns show notable variation across PMI environments, with expansion periods generating -0.37% average returns compared to -0.74% during contractions. The optimal PMI range around level 60 demonstrates +1.07% average returns, highlighting the potential value of economic regime awareness in investment timing. Risk-adjusted metrics reveal expansion periods generating superior Sharpe ratios of -0.087 compared to -0.156 during contraction periods, indicating better risk-adjusted performance during favorable economic conditions. Overall strategy volatility of approximately 4.2% for 20-day periods provides context for risk management considerations. Analytical Robustness PMI-SPX relationships have demonstrated relative stability across different economic regimes, supporting the robustness of the analytical framework. The consistency of relationships across multiple decades and various economic cycles provides confidence in the underlying economic logic connecting manufacturing activity and equity market performance. The analysis benefits from 931 PMI observations across 75+ years, providing sufficient statistical power for meaningful inference. This sample size encompasses multiple complete economic cycles, recession periods, and structural economic changes, enhancing the reliability of observed relationships. The approach aligns with established economic theory regarding leading indicators and market efficiency, providing theoretical support for the empirical findings. The economic logic connecting manufacturing health to corporate profitability and equity market performance provides a rational foundation for the observed statistical relationships. Practical Implementation Considerations for Investors Preparation and Setup Investors considering PMI-based market timing should begin with careful consideration of their investment approach and risk tolerance. Determining appropriate allocation levels represents a critical first step, with consideration of how PMI-based decisions will integrate with existing investment strategies and portfolio management approaches. Technical preparation involves establishing reliable access to PMI data through economic calendars, market data platforms, or financial news services. Many investment platforms provide economic indicator tracking capabilities that can facilitate regular monitoring of PMI releases and historical trends. Systematic approach development requires establishing consistent review processes and decision-making frameworks that incorporate PMI data alongside other investment considerations. This includes determining how PMI information will influence allocation decisions and what thresholds might trigger investment review or adjustment. Ongoing Management Effective implementation requires establishing regular review cycles that align with PMI release schedules and investment timeframes. Monthly PMI releases provide natural review points for assessing current economic conditions and their implications for investment allocation decisions. Regular portfolio monitoring should encompass both PMI-related performance tracking and broader market condition assessment. This includes monitoring the ongoing relationship between PMI readings and market performance to ensure that historical patterns continue to provide useful investment guidance. Periodic strategy evaluation should examine the effectiveness of PMI-based timing decisions compared to alternative approaches. This includes assessing whether PMI awareness has enhanced investment outcomes and whether adjustments to the approach might improve effectiveness. Performance Evaluation Meaningful performance evaluation requires tracking relevant metrics that capture both the benefits and costs of PMI-based investment decisions. Win rate analysis by PMI regime provides insight into the effectiveness of economic timing decisions, while risk-adjusted return measures help evaluate whether PMI awareness improves investment efficiency. Ongoing correlation monitoring helps assess whether historical relationships between PMI and market performance continue to provide useful investment guidance. Significant changes in these relationships might signal the need for strategy adjustment or reduced reliance on PMI-based timing. Regular evaluation should consider both quantitative performance measures and qualitative factors such as implementation complexity and behavioral challenges that may affect long-term strategy sustainability. The Bottom Line: Your New Market Edge After analyzing 75 years of market data, the evidence is clear: PMI gives ordinary investors a legitimate edge in timing the stock market. While the correlations aren't perfect (no market indicator ever is), the consistency of PMI's predictive power across decades of bull markets, bear markets, recessions, and booms is remarkable. Here's what you need to remember: PMI above 50 has historically meant better odds of making money in stocks, with the sweet spot between 55-60 delivering the best risk-adjusted returns. PMI below 47 signals danger, and PMI below 43 means it's time to get defensive with your money. The optimal investment horizon appears to be around 20 trading days - giving PMI signals time to work while avoiding excessive exposure to economic volatility. This isn't day trading; it's intelligent, macro-driven position sizing. PMI works best when combined with other investment tools rather than used in isolation. Think of it as a powerful economic weather report that helps you decide whether to carry an umbrella (defensive positioning) or wear sunglasses (aggressive positioning) for your investment journey. The key insight for individual investors: while Wall Street institutions have used PMI for decades, retail investors have largely ignored this free, publicly available predictor. This creates an opportunity for informed investors who understand how to read economic signals that the crowd overlooks. Remember, markets are ultimately driven by economics, and PMI gives you a monthly update on the economic engine that powers corporate profits and stock prices. In a world where everyone is trying to find an edge, PMI offers a research-backed approach to market timing based on fundamental economic data rather than chart patterns or market sentiment. This is your invitation to join the ranks of macro-aware investors who understand that sometimes the best trading signals come not from price charts, but from the real economy itself. References Bank for International Settlements. (2019). *PMI and financial market indicators*. BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019. Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. *Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review*, 1-14. Lahiri, K., & Moore, G. H. (1991). *Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records*. Cambridge University Press. T. Rowe Price. (2025). What macro data does and does not tell us about earnings. *Institutional Insights*.
SEducation
by EdgeTools
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# S&P 500 (US500) Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast Current Price: 6,464.4 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: US500 / S&P 500 Index Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary The S&P 500 continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum, currently trading near all-time highs at 6,464.4. Our comprehensive technical analysis utilizing Japanese Candlestick patterns, Harmonic analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff methodology, W.D. Gann principles, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook with key resistance levels approaching. The index has successfully achieved conservative targets around 6,474-6,504 level, with the next major target zone near 7,000. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis The S&P 500 appears to be in the final stages of a major impulse wave (Wave 5) within a larger degree cycle. The wave structure suggests: Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of Target Zone: 6,800-7,000 for wave completion Invalidation Level: Break below 6,147 (July low) Wyckoff Market Structure The current phase aligns with Wyckoff's Distribution Phase characteristics: Phase: Late Markup Phase transitioning to potential Distribution Volume Analysis: Decreasing volume on recent highs suggests weakening demand Price Action: Narrowing trading ranges indicating potential climax conditions W.D. Gann Analysis Applying Gann's comprehensive methodology: Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price 6,464.4 sits at a significant Gann square level - Next major resistance: 6,724 (45-degree angle projection) - Time cycles suggest potential reversal window: September 15-20, 2025 Angle Analysis: - 1x1 angle support from July low: 6,200-6,250 - 2x1 angle resistance: 6,700-6,750 Price & Time Harmonics: - 90-day cycle completion due mid-September - Price squares suggest natural resistance at 6,561 and 6,724 --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Patterns Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Spinning Top: August 28-29 showing indecision at highs Long Upper Shadows: Indicating selling pressure at resistance levels Volume Confirmation: Bearish divergence with declining volume Harmonic Pattern Recognition Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone 6,480-6,520 ABCD Pattern: Active completion at current levels Fibonacci Confluence: 1.618 extension target at 6,756 --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure Price Position: Above Kumo (bullish) Tenkan-sen: 6,431 (short-term trend) Kijun-sen: 6,378 (medium-term trend) Senkou Span A: 6,405 Senkou Span B: 6,341 Chikou Span: Positioned above price action (confirming bullish sentiment) Future Kumo: Thinning cloud ahead suggests potential volatility increase --- Key Technical Indicators Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Daily RSI: 68.7 (approaching overbought territory) Weekly RSI: 71.2 (overbought but not extreme) 4H RSI: 72.1 (overbought with bearish divergence forming) Bollinger Bands Analysis Position: Price trading at upper band Bandwidth: Contracting, suggesting low volatility environment Squeeze: Potential breakout setup forming VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: 6,442 Weekly VWAP: 6,398 Volume Profile: Low volume acceptance above 6,450 Moving Average Structure 20 EMA: 6,419 (immediate support) 50 SMA: 6,371 (key support level) 200 SMA: 6,198 (major trend support) Golden Cross: 50/200 cross remains intact (bullish) --- Support & Resistance Levels Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: 6,480 (immediate resistance - Harmonic completion) 2. R2: 6,520 (psychological level) 3. R3: 6,561 (Gann square resistance) 4. R4: 6,724 (Major Gann angle resistance) 5. R5: 6,800-7,000 (Elliott Wave target zone) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: 6,431 (Tenkan-sen support) 2. S2: 6,378 (Kijun-sen support) 3. S3: 6,300-6,150 (Monthly pullback zone) 4. S4: 6,200-6,250 (1x1 Gann angle) 5. S5: 6,147 (July low - critical support) --- Multi-Timeframe Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe: Entry Signals: Look for pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI oversold (<30) Profit Targets: 15-25 points per trade Stop Loss: 10-15 points below entry Volume Confirmation: Above average volume on breakouts 15-Minute Timeframe: Range Trading: 6,440-6,480 current range Breakout Strategy: Volume spike above 6,480 for continuation Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2 standard deviations from VWAP Intraday Strategy (30M, 1H, 4H Charts) 30-Minute Strategy: Trend Following: Long above 20/50 EMA confluence Target: 6,520 initial, 6,561 extended Risk Management: 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Strategy: Pattern Recognition: Monitor for bull flag formations Volume Analysis: Require volume expansion on breakouts Time-Based Exits: Avoid holding through 3:30 PM ET volatility 4-Hour Strategy: Swing Setup: Long on pullbacks to Ichimoku cloud support Momentum Confirmation: Wait for RSI to reset below 50 Position Sizing: Adjust for overnight gap risk Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Strategy: Trend Continuation: Long on breaks above 6,480 with volume Pullback Entries: 6,378-6,300 zone for swing longs Profit Targets: 6,724 (primary), 6,800-7,000 (extended) Weekly Chart Strategy: Long-Term Trend: Remains intact above 6,200 Position Management: Scale out at resistance levels Risk Assessment: Monitor weekly RSI for extreme readings --- Daily Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Markets Closed) Pre-Market Preparation: - Monitor overnight futures for gap scenarios - Review weekend news for market-moving events - Prepare watchlists for Tuesday's session Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Post-holiday session with potential low volume Key Levels: Resistance: 6,480, 6,520 Support: 6,431, 6,378 Strategy: Morning: Range-bound trading likely; fade extremes Afternoon: Watch for institutional flows post-holiday Entry Zones: Long 6,430-6,440 area, Short above 6,480 Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum session Key Events: Monitor for any Federal Reserve communications Strategy: Breakout Play: Above 6,480 targets 6,520-6,561 Volume Confirmation: Required for sustained moves Risk Management: Tight stops in low-volume environment Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Potential volatility increase ahead of Friday Key Levels: Critical Resistance: 6,520-6,561 zone Support: 6,400-6,378 (buy zone) Strategy: Trend Following: Momentum plays above key resistance Counter-Trend: Fade moves on declining volume Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close positioning and potential NFP impact Strategy: Early Session: Position for weekly close Late Session: Prepare for weekend risk management Options Expiry: Monitor for pinning effects at key strikes --- Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Considerations Federal Reserve Policy Impact President Donald Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates by 3 percentage points, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noting that "any model" would put the benchmark federal funds rate at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level of between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent. This political pressure on the Fed could create market volatility as investors weigh the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts. Key Risks to Monitor 1. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence: Potential conflicts between Fed independence and political pressure 2. Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical fragmentation is being fueled by COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China relations and more 3. Economic Data: Any significant deviation from expected economic indicators 4. Market Structure: Elevated valuations increase sensitivity to negative catalysts Earnings Season Considerations - Q3 earnings season approaching in mid-October - Current valuations require strong earnings growth for justification - Sector rotation potential based on earnings guidance --- Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Guidelines Scalping: 0.5-1% risk per trade Intraday: 1-2% risk per trade Swing Trading: 2-3% risk per position Maximum Portfolio Risk: 6-8% total exposure Stop-Loss Protocols Scalping: 10-15 points maximum Intraday: 25-40 points based on volatility Swing: Below key support levels (6,300 for current longs) Profit-Taking Strategy Scale Out Approach: Take 50% at first target, 25% at second target Trailing Stops: Implement once position moves 2:1 favorable Time-Based Exits: Close positions before major news events --- Weekly Outlook Summary Bullish Scenarios (Probability: 60%) - Break above 6,480 with volume expansion - Federal Reserve maintains dovish stance - Strong technical momentum continues Targets: 6,520, 6,561, 6,724 Bearish Scenarios (Probability: 40%) - Failure at resistance with volume decline - Geopolitical shock or Fed hawkish surprise - Technical breakdown below 6,378 Targets: 6,300, 6,200, 6,147 Base Case Expectation: Continued range-bound trading with upward bias, eventual breakout to 6,520-6,561 zone before more significant pullback to test 6,300-6,200 support area. --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
P
by sunya
SPX500 Weekly Trend AnalysisSPX500 Weekly Trend Analysis The SPX500 on a weekly timeframe continues to show an upward trend within a rising channel that has been in place since 2020. The price behavior in relation to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels is particularly interesting—the previous two pullbacks both stopped at this key level, confirming its significant role as support. As a reminder, after forming a low in 2020, the SPX500 entered a long bullish trend that lasted until December 2021, when it recorded its first high at 4500.00. After that, the index pulled back to the 50.0% Fibonacci level and then continued with a new bullish rally. A new higher high was formed around 6000.00, which is again connected to the -50.0% Fibonacci level. The next pullback, similar to the previous one, found support at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend. Based on this pattern, there is a realistic possibility of a new bullish rally with a potential target of 7500.00 (-50.0% Fibonacci level). Following the previous cycles from low to high and pullback, the average interval is approximately 920–930 days, which provides a rough time projection: Next high: By the end of 2026 Next pullback: First part of 2027 or, at the latest, by October 2027 This pattern confirms the strong long-term growth structure and implies that the SPX500 will likely maintain its positive momentum for several more years, with periodic corrections that rely on key Fibonacci levels.
FLong
by Aleksin_Aleksandar