Just sharing analysis - new tops, possible retracement..., analysis started two months ago, new tops,
at the moment - possible retracement...
US500 trade ideas
Interesting trendline dating back to the 1930's**NOT CALLING FOR A CRASH**
This is the era of fiscal stimulus and QE.
Found this interesting that testing 6000 in the next few months would be the 3rd touch
1. Roaring twenties
2. Tech bubble
3. Now
Could serve as intermediate term resistance, with a reaccumulation period. The top channel will be ~8000 in 2030
US500 Poised to Reach 6000 SoonUS500 Poised to Reach 6000 Soon
From our previous analysis, the US500 price broke out from a bullish triangle pattern and reached two of our targets.
Although it appears that the bullish wave may pause soon, the odds favor continued growth.
For further details, you may watch the video.
Thank you and Good Luck!
S&P500 vs Gold in 1970sWe’re hearing a lot of talk about how today’s economic environment is similar to the 1970s, and in many ways, that’s true. Back then, we had runaway inflation and monetary shock, just like in the 2020s.
In recent years, we’ve seen two major shocks:
1) First, the inflation spike following the COVID lockdowns and the reckless stimulus packages.
2) Second, the accelerating demand for gold. Central banks started stockpiling gold over a decade ago, but after the U.S. weaponized the dollar in 2022, that trend exploded. It’s not just BRICS nations; countries all over the world are scrambling to increase their gold reserves. No one wants to be left holding the bag when the next currency crisis hits.
If we’re on the verge of Gold regaining its rightful place as the anchor of global financial reserves, the repricing of PreciousMetals is going to be enormous. In fact, it will completely overshadow the returns of stock indices, just like it did in the 1970s. After the Nixon shock, gold skyrocketed, and while the S&P 500 rose in nominal terms, it was obliterated when measured against gold.
Maybe this time the magnitude of this move will be smaller, who knows? What matters is that stock market returns alone are not the ultimate measure of success. What truly counts are the returns relative to real-world-assets.
S&P 500 at record highs: Maximize your exposureThe S&P 500 has reached record highs, boosted by solid results from the U.S. financial sector. Companies such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo posted gains of 4% to 5%, strengthening the market and positioning U.S. banking at one of its highest points in history. As the earnings season progresses, investors are looking to maximize their portfolio returns in an environment of growth in the US market, despite global uncertainties.
United States: Financials lead momentum
In the United States, third-quarter earnings are off to a strong start, with the banking sector in full growth mode and the S&P 500 at record levels. This strength contrasts with the challenges facing other regions, with earnings growth for this quarter expected to be 5.1%. The focus is now on the expectations being managed by large companies, with the developing conflict in the Middle East and the US presidential election as potential risk factors.
Europe: Fiscal challenges and modest growth
Meanwhile, European markets continue to stagnate. The Ibex 35, CAC 40 and DAX reflect mixed performance, with investors awaiting macroeconomic data. Although 4.6% growth in third-quarter earnings is expected, Europe is still grappling with structural problems, especially in Germany and France, which call into question the long-term viability of the euro project.
Asia and the Middle East: Uncertainties and stimuli
In Asia, the focus is on stimulus policies in China, where the government has been trying to revitalize its economy. However, the lack of clarity about the real extent of these efforts continues to raise doubts among investors. In the Middle East, evolving conflicts also introduce an element of uncertainty that could affect global markets in the near future.
On the technical side
S&P500 (Ticker AT:USA500) has been advancing since last week in an almost unstoppable bullish move that has seen it reach new highs. If we look at the most frequently traded area, the index has been hovering above it since September 19, and moving through the upper zone of the long-term channel. It would not be difficult to see it touching 6000 points in the coming weeks. On the other hand, we have the control point (POC) at 5,473 points and the overbought RSI at 67.72% which indicates that there is still room for an extension to that price. If we look at the bollinger bands we can see how on Friday the band started to widen which could reinforce this thought of a continuation of the bullish move.
In summary, while the S&P 500 makes record highs, Europe faces growth challenges, and Asia and the Middle East add elements of uncertainty to a complex global financial landscape.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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SPX will top around ~4500I think, SPX will top around 6500, previous history show, when it reached the RED LINE, it drops significantly.
The RED LINE AVG is around $6500
The GREEN LINE AVG which maybe bottom is around $2600
The bottom chart is supporting the scenario, the 3 Quarter Average.
The RED Horizontal line is the 1929 TOP. Simulating the candle if it will close to $4500, it can still go further.
The Price Chart Bullish scenario is when a candle close above the RED LINE, the price will go ballistic if this happened. You will see massive candles above the red line.
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge.
This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Short setup on SPXThe SPX has experienced a significant bull run, reaching just below $5700, but is now showing clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup.
Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving sideways and is now nearly flat at its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend.
This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration.
Three additional signs support this setup:
The RSI Exhaustion shows bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely.
The price has formed a top at its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator.
A new major resistance level has recently formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level could potentially turn into support if the price breaks above it, for now, it remains a resistance, exerting downward pressure on the price.
Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics.
🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook
Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves.
However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level.
🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes
The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining.
The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down.
🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities
It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions.
🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance?
🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements:
🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve.
🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.)
🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading
The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table.
This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade.
⅀ SPX Summary
The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERNHere on S&P 500 price has form a rising wedge pattern and there is a chance of moving down if price reach line 5363.21 so going for SHORT is needed with expected profit target of 4953.46 and 4414.32 . Use money management
SPX nearing a top !?Lagging behind Nasdaq (TECH), usually tops shortly after
Nasdaq already reached it's full fib extension, SPX few percentage points behind .. could it be the final topping phase as in 2022 ???
US500 Index Price Analysis - Bullish OutlookUS500 Index Price Analysis - Bullish Outlook
US500 broke through the top of the large structure on 19-September-24 by confirming that the bullis wants to push the index into new highs.
After 20 days in an accumulation process, the price broke out of the pattern yesterday indicating further growth.
The reason of the bullish move was related to the FOMC minutes yesterday and the US CPI data can push it up further today as shown on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame
Demand Zone
Us500 updateIs good to be true am not expecting anyone to follow my I deas but I want everyone to see clear trend while others are looking for sell am seeing unstoppable growth frost target 60k buy when everyone is selling n make money.
I see what is waiting for youIt is worth a little patience to limit 5835 to be a seller until 5894 for the goals of 5781 and 5619 to reach the final goal of 5467, be profitable and patient
Tatasteel share of Indian companyTatasteel share should go beyond 170, at present it traded on 158 but soon within 10 to 15 days it will reaches upto 170,. Those who wants to buy it option one can buy.
S&P 500 Reaches Another Record HighS&P 500 Reaches Another Record High
As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the leading US stock index set its 45th record of the year, closing above 5800 on Friday. This marks the fifth consecutive week of growth, with the index up more than 22% since the start of the year.
According to Reuters, the bullish market sentiment is driven by the start of Q3 earnings season, with companies possibly issuing bolder forecasts due to the beginning of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.
What are the prospects for the index until the end of 2024?
A technical analysis of the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows:
In 2024, price action has been contained within three relatively narrow ascending channels (shown in blue), where:
→ The first two channels remained valid for at least 80 candles, and the third has now reached 30 candles;
→ The channels have similar slopes and widths;
→ Drawing lines through the high of Channel 1, the high and low of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 forms a larger channel (shown in orange).
If the bullish sentiment persists, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) may continue to rise within the third blue channel towards the upper orange line.
However, several factors could significantly impact the market before the year's end: → Labour market data, as well as Fed decisions and comments;
→ US presidential elections and budget approval;
→ Company earnings and forecasts that fall well below market expectations.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the S&P 500 could reach 6,000 by the end of 2024.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX - The top is in!Hi ya traders,
Everything sure looks bull huh? Bet you even heard some strong bears switching to the bull side recently. 600 is in the bag they say! That's usually a warning sign :)
Anyways using fibs, trendlines, and patterns I show why I believe the Top could be in on the SPX. First the last three waves using fibs the 1.618's end right where we are now. Another big cool one is the 2008 crash fib is right here as well. It was at the 2022 tops as well. On many stock charts things look like the 2022 top (example Microsoft) . Also on Friday 10-11-2024 was the SPX 2007 ATH anniversary! Could we be topping on the same date? I say yes! Looking at Nvidia and many others that have recently held the market up they look like they are ready to head down as well. I also plot what happened after the ATH in 2007 on our current charts on the SPX.
Oh we also have rising wedge which we just hit the top of the trendline which goes back to august..so I doubt its going to break thru that here. This is a bearish pattern which usually breaks down eventually.
Now do I think we are gonna crash? No I don't think we will but you never know. I do feel we will have a decent pullback here. Could we still goto 600 and higher.. Sure.
Lets see what happens...
SPX: a fresh new highest levelThe equity markets in the US continue to move within a positive sentiment during the Q3. The S&P 500 reached a fresh new highest level during the previous week, closing Friday's trading at the level of 5.815, and gaining 1,1% on a weekly basis. This week, tech companies were not in the focus of the market, but the positive sentiment was boosted by the financial industry. The banks posted their Q3 results which were not in line with market expectations, however, the market was pricing the potential for the future earnings. Shares of JPMorgan surged by 4,4%, while Wells Fargo was traded higher by 5,6%. Strategists from UBS bank are also quite positive on the future earnings of the US banks, noting JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and BlackRock as potential strong performers.
Tech companies were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. On one side were higher gainers, like Super Micro Computers with a gain of 15% and Palo Alto Network, which surged by 9%. At the same time, Tesla shares were traded down by 7,5% after the company's announcement of the robo-taxi.
Another support to the market optimism came from US inflation data for September. The data showed that the Fed might easily make another 25 bps at their November meeting. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is 90% odds that the Fed will cut in November.
Amazing Long- Term Fibonacci Time CycleThe Fibonacci sequence is as follows (1,1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ---to infinity)
Within the last 34 – years there have been 4 significant SPX turns on or near October 11th.
October 11, 2024 could be the 5th turn – this time a top.
Additionally, the SPX - 2002 to 2007 was almost an exact Fibonacci 5 – years.
If the current bull market which began in October 2022 tops now, it will have lasted a Fibonacci 2 – years.
S&P 500 index - When will the bull market ends?A linear regression channel spanning over a dozen years doesn’t lie — the graph depicts the S&P 500 index using candlesticks in monthly intervals on a logarithmic price scale. We are entering a danger zone in the coming months! Naturally, the earlier the drop, the less painful it will be.
SPX- Countdown to Price DownEverything that we would say in this post we have already said
Now we wait.....
