Get started

USD/CAD (OANDA EU Clients)

No trades
CADR
CAD
No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDCAD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas

USCDAD Wave Analysis 22 January 2025 - USCDAD reversed from pivotal support level 1.4290 - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4455 USCDAD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.4290 (lower border of the sideways price range from December, which stopped previous waves A and (4)). The support level 1.4290 was also strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from December. Given the clear daily uptrend, USCDAD currency pair can be expected to rise in the active impulse wave (5) to the next resistance level 1.4455 (upper border of the active sideways price range).
Long
by FxProGlobal
USD/CAD Buy Trade – Targeting 1.43358Pair: USD/CAD 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Direction: Long 🔼 Target: 1.43358 🎯 Time Horizon: By Tuesday, Jan 21, 23:15 UTC ⏳ USD/CAD has shown consolidation, with signs indicating a potential move upward. Market behavior suggests a gradual push toward the 1.43358 level, aligning with observed price action. This trade is expected to reach its target by Tuesday at 23:15 UTC. Broader market influences, including USD strength and CAD market trends, may play a role in price progression. Monitoring closely for confirmation of anticipated movement. 🔍
Long
by GlobalHorns
Prepare For The Bearish BreakoutOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will fall to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment! Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
Short
by dkb14246
1
4 Central Banks, 1 Week Central bank decisions this week are poised to affect currencies, stocks, and bonds. Here’s what’s happening over the next 7 days: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, 2025. The yen rose against the dollar on Tuesday as traders anticipated a ~90% chance of an interest rate hike despite tariff concerns tied to Donald Trump’s policies. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on January 28-29, 2025. While a rate cut is unlikely this month, a reduction in March or May remains a possibility. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% on January 29, 2025. This decision aligns with growing economic concerns following President-elect Donald Trump proposed 25% tariff on Canadian exports. The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council will meet on January 30, 2025. A rate cut appears to be likely, albeit policymakers will be relieved that potential broader U.S. trade tariffs were avoided.
by BlackBull_Markets
Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat and USD/CAD’s Expanding RangeUSD/CAD has quickly become the currency pair to watch as Donald Trump’s tariff threats shake the foundations of North American trade. With rising political uncertainty on both sides of the border and increasingly volatile price action, this pair is presenting both risks and opportunities for traders. Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat Donald Trump wasted no time making waves, threatening Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs on the first day of his new term. These proposed levies are tied to border security concerns and the ongoing fentanyl trafficking crisis, which Trump has made a key part of his trade agenda. The announcement sent a volatility shock through currency markets, causing the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar to drop. This sharp reaction was compounded by a sense of whiplash— traders had been anticipating a more measured approach after administration officials hinted at restraint. Instead, they were met with heightened uncertainty, a hallmark of Trump’s economic style. Canada now finds itself in a precarious position. Heavily reliant on trade with the US, its economy is already feeling the weight of these tariff threats. As Trump pushes forward with his protectionist agenda, heightened volatility in the USD/CAD pair is likely to persist. Technical Analysis: USD/CAD’s Expanding Range After a strong rally from October to December, USD/CAD has spent the start of the year consolidating. At first, the pair moved within a narrow, orderly trading range, but that calm has given way to a more erratic and volatile expanding range pattern. This shift is a direct result of escalating trade tensions and Canada’s own domestic uncertainties. False breakouts on both sides of the range have become a defining feature. These moves have rattled traders looking for directional clarity, with each false breakout appearing to test the boundaries of the market’s patience. As the expanding range widens, the pair signals an intense tug-of-war between bullish momentum and growing unpredictability. To place this volatility in context, Keltner Channels are an essential tool. They adapt to the increasing volatility while maintaining a focus on the broader trend. A look at the daily chart shows USD/CAD remains above the midline of the Keltner Channel, affirming that the long-term uptrend is still intact. However, the bands are widening significantly, reflecting the heightened uncertainty that traders must contend with. USD/CAD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Traders should approach this pair with caution: • Key support and resistance levels within the expanding range will be critical to watch. • A breakout beyond the upper Keltner Channel, coupled with rising volume, could signal the start of a new trend leg. • It’s essential to account for the volatility when setting stop losses or calculating position sizes. Overly tight stops could easily be triggered by sharp intraday moves, while wider stops demand disciplined risk management. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom
USDCAD - READY FOR BREAKOUT? / RETRACEMENT?Pair looks somewhat interesting to watch closely. First of all Price Objective for major Bullish Rectangle has been met. Though after several days of struggle and consolidation (within the smaller rectangle) it finally hit target. Most traders would probably have gone short on the long bearish candle and Stop losses just right above it or above the rectangle which coincidentally is PO for broader/major rectangle and all stopped out of their trades. I look forward to price reaching the 1.4300 level (strong confluence point) and an eventual breakout to the downside. Price levels to watch out for also drawn on chart including PO for rectangle (distribution zone range), fib 0.236 & 0.382 retracement levels. Summary Patterns identified 1. Distribution zone (Rectangle). Don't seem like a reversal to me at the moment. 2. Bump and Run (with targets 1.3950 - 1.3700) though not in the short term. A push up and close above 1.4400 (fib. retracement, 0.118) could nullify this analysis.
Short
by GhosTrader_GT
USDCAD All scenarios Covered Below is a multi‐timeframe synthesis for USDCAD incorporating the Weekly, Daily, 4H, and 1H charts you provided. We’ll conclude with actionable trade ideas (both bullish and bearish scenarios) with asymmetric risk‐to‐reward. Finally, we’ll outline risk management best practices (including ATR‐based stops) and a quick recap on how to post these setups on TradingView. 1) Weekly Recap • Trend: Strongly bullish since mid‐2023. Price remains above the 10/50/100/200 SMAs. • Overextension? Slightly. Price tapped 1.46–1.48 highs before pulling back. • Support Zones: • 1.40–1.41 (confluence of weekly demand & 20 SMA Bollinger middle). • 1.37–1.38 (key bullish order block & 50/100 SMAs). • Resistance: 1.46–1.48 (recent local highs + possible weekly supply). • Momentum: RSI remains above 60 (slightly cooling), MACD still positive but histogram rolling over. Overall big‐picture bias is bullish, but price may be pausing or correcting before another leg up. 2) Daily Recap • Structure: In an uptrend on the daily, but momentum has flattened. Recent price action between ~1.42 and ~1.46. • Key Levels: • Support near 1.41–1.42 (fib 38.2% & bullish OB). • Resistance near 1.46 (upper Bollinger + prior highs). • Indicators: RSI ~50, MACD near zero, OBV generally up, ADX dropping → momentum stalling, no strong impetus short‐term. • Daily Bias: Still bullish in bigger picture, but short‐term neutral/consolidative. Possible deeper pullback toward 1.41–1.40 if 1.42 fails. 3) 4H Recap • Range Choppiness: Price has oscillated between ~1.43 and ~1.45 for weeks. • MAs Clustered: 10/50/100/200 all relatively close → no dominant short‐term trend. • Breakout Points: • Above 1.445–1.45 for bullish continuation. • Below 1.43 for a deeper correction. • Momentum Indicators: RSI around 40–45, MACD flipping near zero, ADX < 25 → subdued short‐term trend. • 4H Bias: Range‐bound until a decisive break. Leaning bullish in the bigger sense, but short‐term direction is unclear. 4) 1H (Intraday) Recap • Recent Whipsaws: Sharp spikes around 1.45–1.4550, then abrupt drops to 1.43. • Moving Averages: 10/50/100/200 MAs frequently crossing, typical of a sideways or whipsaw environment. • RSI: ~37–40, mildly oversold intraday. Rebounds to 50–60 have quickly reversed. • MACD: Also crossing zero frequently, reflecting short‐term indecision & high volatility. • ATR: ~0.0036 (≈36 pips average hourly range), meaning intraday moves are quite volatile at the moment. 1H Conclusion • Price is bearish‐leaning intraday (lower highs, falling from 1.45+ to 1.43). But it sits in the broader daily/weekly range. • Good for short‐term fades near range extremes (e.g., short near 1.445/1.45 or buy near 1.43) until a real breakout. 5) Potential Trade Scenarios & Setups Below are three main scenarios—two on the bullish side (continuation & dip‐buy) and one bearish breakdown. Each includes approximate Entries, Stops, and Targets with at least a 1:1.5 or 1:2 R:R in mind. Important: These are technical scenarios, not financial advice. Always confirm with your own risk tolerance and fundamental factors. A) Bullish Breakout Trade (Short‐Term to Medium‐Term) 1. Trigger: A 4H or Daily close above 1.445–1.450 (preferably with rising volume & momentum signals on 1H/4H). 2. Entry: Near 1.445–1.450 after seeing a confirmed breakout candle (and retest if possible). 3. Stop‐Loss: • For a tighter approach, place stops just below the breakout pivot (~1.437–1.440). • For a swing approach, you could place stops below 1.43 structure. • Use ATR: If 4H ATR is ~0.006 (60 pips), you might set a 1.5×ATR ≈ 90 pips stop. If the break triggers at 1.448, a 90‐pip stop is around 1.439. 4. Targets: • First target ~1.46 (recent highs). • Second target ~1.48 (weekly supply & psychological level). 5. R:R Example: • Entry: 1.448, Stop: 1.438 (100 pips from 1.448 to 1.438 = 0.0100 in the quote). • Target1: 1.46 (120 pips from entry) → R:R ~1.2 • Target2: 1.48 (320 pips from entry if comparing properly, that’s 1.48 minus 1.448 → 0.032, actually 320 pips in five‐digit quotes might be 320 “points” or ~320 ticks. On typical 4 decimal USDCAD, that’s 320 pips. This can yield a 1:3+ if you hold for a bigger run. • Adjust as needed so that the first partial or the final exit is at least 1:1.5 or 1:2. Rationale: Aligns with the larger weekly uptrend, momentum might reignite if we clear overhead supply. Watch for RSI crossing above 60 (on 4H or daily) plus a bullish MACD cross/histogram expansion to confirm. B) Bullish Dip‐Buy (Swing) 1. Trigger: A pullback into strong daily/weekly support—1.41–1.42. 2. Entry: Look for bullish reversal patterns (double bottom, bullish engulfing, etc.) around 1.41–1.42. 3. Stop‐Loss: • Below 1.40 or below the swing low if it forms. • Use daily ATR ~0.010 (100 pips) → you might place a 2×ATR stop = 200 pips from your entry. If you enter at 1.415, your stop might be near 1.395. 4. Targets: • First target: 1.44–1.45 area (back toward recent daily range top). • Second target: 1.46–1.48 if the uptrend momentum recovers. 5. R:R Example: • Entry ~1.415, Stop ~1.395 (200 pips difference). • Target1 ~1.445 (300 pips difference) → 1:1.5 R:R. • Target2 ~1.46+ → 1:2 or better. Rationale: This trade capitalizes on the bigger bullish structure from the weekly. The idea is that the market might flush out weak longs, but ultimately hold a major fib & SMA confluence near 1.41–1.42, then resume upward. C) Bearish Breakdown (Short‐Term to Possibly Medium‐Term) 1. Trigger: A 4H close below 1.43 with volume + failing retest or a clear break under 1.42 (for a stronger signal). 2. Entry: ~1.428–1.430 on a breakdown or retest from below. 3. Stop‐Loss: • Just above the broken support (~1.435–1.438). • 1H ATR is ~0.0036 (36 pips), 4H ATR ~0.006 (60 pips). You might opt for a 1.5–2× ATR from the breakdown area. 4. Targets: • First target ~1.415–1.41. • Second target near 1.40 or 1.39 if the daily/timeframe correction accelerates. 5. R:R Example: • Entry ~1.430, Stop ~1.438 (80 pips difference). • Target1 ~1.415 (150 pips difference from 1.430 to 1.415) → ~1:1.9 R:R. • Target2 ~1.40 → ~300 pips difference → 1:3+. Rationale: If 1.43 fails, it could open a deeper correction to that 1.41 or 1.40 region. This scenario may simply be a short‐term trade against the bigger weekly uptrend, or it might catch a larger swing if the daily market truly shifts momentum. 6) Risk Management & ATR Position Sizing • 1% Max Risk: • If your stop is X pips away, ensure your position size is such that 1% of your account is the total potential loss. • Using ATR: • For a 4H or daily swing, you might place your stop 1.5–2× the ATR below (for a buy) or above (for a sell) your entry, giving the trade sufficient “breathing room.” • Example: If daily ATR is ~100 pips, a 2×ATR stop is 200 pips away from your entry. • Calculate position size as: • For USDCAD, if each pip is worth $1.00 per standard lot, you adjust proportionally. • Avoid Negative R:R: Always align your profit targets so the trade has the potential of at least 1:1.5 or better. If the setup doesn’t offer that, skip it. 7) How to Post Your Idea on TradingView 1. Open the Chart: Bring up USDCAD on TradingView with your final analysis drawn (trendlines, fib levels, etc.). 2. Use the Long/Short Position Tool: • Mark your Entry where you plan to enter. • Drag the Stop‐Loss (red box) to your intended stop level (e.g., 1.435 for a breakout buy). • Drag the Take‐Profit (green box) to your first or final target level. 3. Annotate Key Levels: • Draw horizontal lines for major support/resistance (e.g., 1.42, 1.43, 1.45) and note order blocks if relevant. • Label fib retracements, demand zones, or any relevant confluence. 4. Publish: • In the top right, click “Publish” → “Publish Idea.” • Add a catchy but clear Title (e.g., “USDCAD Bullish Breakout Setup | Multi‐TF Analysis”). • In the Description, summarize your multi‐timeframe rationale, show your R:R, mention risk management approach, and disclaim it’s not financial advice. 5. Engage: Respond to comments, keep posting consistent analysis, and maintain transparency. This helps build followers. Final Thoughts • Long‐Term: Weekly bias remains bullish. • Medium‐Term: Daily is consolidating; watch for a deeper pullback or a breakout above the range top. • Short‐Term: 4H & 1H are choppy—look for a decisive range break or trade the extremes with tight stops. Whether you choose a breakout buy above 1.45, a dip‐buy near 1.41–1.42, or a short if 1.43 fails, always confirm confluences (e.g., candlestick closes, RSI over/under key levels, MACD crosses) and manage risk properly. Best of luck! If any part needs more detail, let me know, and I’ll refine the analysis.
Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
1
The Basics of Fibonacci TheoryBefore diving into Fibonacci theory, let's first answer the question, "Who is Fibonacci?" After all, knowing the history will give you the background you need to understand how this trading theory is rooted in mathematics and history. Leonardo Pisano, better known as Leonardo Fibonacci, was a European mathematician in the Middle Ages. He wrote Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation) in 1202. It’s there that the Fibonacci Sequence was born: A series of numbers where each figure is the sum of the two preceding it. The Fibonacci sequence begins with zero and one, which are known as seed numbers. Each subsequent number is the sum of the two preceding ones, so here's how the sequence starts: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144… While the sequence itself isn't crucial for traders, it provides the basis for Fibonacci ratios that you often see traders adding to their charts to anticipate price action. What are Fibonacci Ratios? Fibonacci ratios are percentages derived from dividing numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. Key ratios include 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 161.8%. For example, the 61.8% ratio is found by dividing a number in the sequence by the one that follows it, resulting in approximately 0.618. These ratios, known as the golden ratios, frequently appear in mathematics, geometry, architecture, and art. Fibonacci Retracements for Traders Fibonacci retracements are often used to help predict support and resistance levels when a market retraces after a significant move. For instance, if a market drops 150 points in a bear trend, a countertrend might find support or resistance at a Fibonacci ratio of the initial move, such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, or 78.6% of the move. With this simple bit of knowledge, you now have the basic understanding of Fibonacci ratios, and you can utilize this to better understand charts that have ratios drawn on them, as well as experimenting with the various Fibonacci tools available on TradingView. Whether you're analyzing short-term trends or long-term movements, incorporating Fibonacci principles can provide unique insight into possible moves based on universal mathematical principles. Did you learn something new? Our team of researchers and market specialists will be sharing more educational content, so be sure to follow our TradingView account for instant updates. Also, be sure to check out our latest ideas here . The FOREX.com team
by FOREXcom
USD/CAD Consolidation Continues Despite VolatilityChart Analysis: The USD/CAD pair continues to trade within a defined consolidation box, reflecting indecision and range-bound behavior. 1️⃣ Consolidation Box: The pair has failed to decisively break above the upper boundary near 1.4460 or below the lower boundary around 1.4280. This range-bound behavior suggests that traders remain uncertain about the next directional move. 2️⃣ Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: The upper boundary at 1.4460 remains a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level with strong follow-through is needed to confirm a bullish breakout. Support: The lower boundary near 1.4280 acts as strong support. A breakdown below this level could indicate bearish continuation. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Rising around 1.4215, providing dynamic support within the range. 200-day SMA (red): Trending upward near 1.3820, confirming a longer-term bullish structure. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 52, reflecting neutral momentum. MACD: Flat, signaling a lack of strong directional momentum. What to Watch: A confirmed breakout above 1.4460 or breakdown below 1.4280 will likely provide the next major move. Until then, traders may look to trade within the consolidation range, with stops placed around key levels. The USD/CAD remains in a state of consolidation, with the range providing clear levels for traders to monitor. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Market Heist Plan on Bullish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated on the MA level breakout of 1.44900 However I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 1.26000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ A bullish scenario for the USD/CAD pair would involve a combination of factors that would lead to an increase in the value of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar. Here are some possible factors that could contribute to a bullish scenario: Strong US Economic Growth: A strong US economy, with rising GDP growth, low unemployment, and increasing consumer spending, could lead to an increase in the value of the US dollar. Interest Rate Hikes: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates more aggressively than expected, it could lead to an increase in the value of the US dollar, as higher interest rates would make the US dollar more attractive to investors. Weak Canadian Economic Growth: A weak Canadian economy, with slow GDP growth, high unemployment, and decreasing consumer spending, could lead to a decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. Commodity Price Decline: A decline in commodity prices, such as oil and gold, could lead to a decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar, as Canada is a major exporter of these commodities. Bank of Canada Dovishness: If the Bank of Canada takes a dovish stance on monetary policy, it could lead to a decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar, as investors would expect lower interest rates and a more accommodative monetary policy. The USD/CAD pair is looking interesting right now. Based on the latest analysis, it seems that the pair is likely to grow, Some experts are predicting a bullish continuation, with the price potentially breaking above the range's resistance. However, others are warning of a potential reversal, with the pair showing signs of exhaustion and a possible shift in momentum. In terms of fundamentals, the US CPI for May is predicted to rise 0.7% monthly and 8.3% annualized, which could impact the USD/CAD pair. Additionally, the Canadian Employment Report for May is predicted to show the addition of 30.0K jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 5.2%, which could also affect the pair. Overall, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but it seems that the bullish scenario is gaining traction. Of course, it's always important to keep an eye on the latest news and analysis, as things can change quickly in the forex market........................... Trading Alert⚠️ : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader
Canada CPI fractionally lower. BoC in the spotlight next weekUSDCAD continues to experience strong fluctuations due to recent political and economic events. Next week it will BoC's turn to shape the near-term faith of the Canadian dollar. FX_IDC:USDCAD MARKETSCOM:USDCAD RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom